I do not think that it is hyperbole to say that August 30, 2009 marks the biggest sea-change in Japanese politics since the end of World War II. After what happened today – Japan will never be the same.
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan for the last 50 years – the only interruption being 11 months in the early 1990s, when an unwieldy coalition of small opposition parties won a majority in Parliament. However, as of now, the LDP holds only 108 seats in the 480-seat lower house of Parliament (which elects the Prime Minister) – a loss of almost 200 seats . Meanwhile, the socialist Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which previously held only 110 seats, is now in control of over 300 seats. So, I think it is safe to say that the era of LDP dominance is over for good.
Now, obviously we need to congratulate the DPJ on consolidating the opposition into a single party. And furthermore, we should welcome the DPJ’s new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama.
However, as conservatives, our Japanese allies are in the LDP, and we should pray that the party can quickly reorganize itself into a a modern and competitive conservative party. Hatoyama, like Obama, is likely to steer his country off a left-wing cliff – and there will be an opening to get rid of him in a few years. However, the LDP must reject old-school crony politics quickly if it wants to bring itself back from the brink of oblivion.
My suggestion for the LDP is to use the coming leadership election to begin the re-branding (as Prime Minister Taro Aso has already resigned the party leadership). If they continue their pattern of electing whoever is next in line, regardless of the ramifications, they will implode. Japan is no longer a one-party system, and the LDP no longer has the luxury of knowing that even the worst choice can lead them to victory. However. there is already a template that the LDP can use to transform itself from a bureaucratic oligarchy into a modern political force.
Koizumi as Reagan
Just a few years ago, the LDP was at it’s high point under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi - a renegade who was to Japan what Reagan was to America. However, when he stepped aside in 2006, the LDP decided not to continue the Koizumi legacy – instead returning to politics as usual and going through three different unpopular Prime Ministers since 2006.
In order to be competitive today, the LDP must pick up Koizumi’s mantle once again and move forward with him as a figurehead – the same way Republicans today look at Ronald Reagan. In their last leadership change, the LDP rejected Koizumi by electing Taro Aso (an aging establishment candidate). However, Koizumi himself endorsed third place candidate Yuriko Koike – who would have become the first female Prime Minister had she won.
The Case for Koike
Personally, I think Madam Koike must be the leader of the party moving forward. She has little connection to the bureaucracy of the LDP, she seems to be a principled conservative, and she represents a dramatic move toward reform in a country where gender barriers remain far more solid than they are in the West. She would also mark a pronounced return to the vision of Koizumi. It’s possible that there are better candidates that I do not know of – but I have a hard time imagining anyone being able to re-brand the LDP better than Koike could.
If They Insist…
In fact, should the LDP turn once again to business as usual, I think that it would be a good idea for Koike and Koizumi to launch a new party. If the LDP cannot be truly representative of conservative values in Japan, than somebody must pick up the torch. If the formerly dominant forces are hell-bent on marginalizing themselves, then so be it - but there is no reason for the real conservative reformers to go down with the ship.
Here’s hoping that the Japanese right can get its house in order before Hatoyama and the DPJ can do too much damage.
FOOTNOTE: It now appears that Yuriko Koike has lost her seat in Parliament (along with many other LDP bigwigs). This in no way changes my advice. Two thirds of the LDP caucus is gone in this rout, and I’m guessing that only the most solid LDP seats remained with the party. The LDP was subjected to a massive wave of public discontent, and I don’t think the party’s losses should reflect on individual candidates who lost seats. Koike should still stand for leader of the LDP.
August 30th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
I don’t know very much about Japan politics. What are the major issues that divide the Japanese? Taxes? Gay marriage? Health care?
Also, I’ve been saving for a trip to Asia since I was 12. It would likely be about a month long and would likely involve 10 days in Japan, 5 in South Korea and 15 in the People’s Republic of China. I’ve got a lot saved…hopefully I can go next summer or the summer after.
August 30th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Well this has me down.
August 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
“Here’s hoping that the Japanese right can get its house in order before Hatoyama and the DPJ can do too much damage.”
Why do you want the DJP to do damage?
August 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
It’s harder for me to keep up with Japan than other countries – but I think the economy is the be-all-to-end-all over there right now. There are some security concenrns (N. Korea, the question of whether they should b allowed to have a standing army again, etc). However, I do think it is a very economically focussed place – especially with the current recession.
August 30th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Also, I know that the U.S. Japan relationship is a big issue over there (especially since we take a big role in their defence and have bases there).
The LDP is very Pro-American, the DPJ not so much.
August 30th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
3)
I didn’t say I want them to do damage – I just think it’s inevitable by virtue of their socialist platform.
I ultimately think that the DPJ’s policies will drive Japan into an even deeper recession – and hence I think that it is imperative to re-install a revitalized LDP as soon as possible. Although – I do value the DPJ in that they give Japan a legitimate 2-party system, which will keep the LDP honest and force them to be more concerned with keeping the confidence of the people than their own internal bureaucratic struggles.
August 30th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
It’s a gross simplification to call the Democratic Party of Japan socialist.
The factions of the DP run from conservative former LDPers to former socialists.
August 30th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
There’s nothing ‘conservative’ about the LDP. They are something with no analogy to American politics. They are the party of government, BIG government at that. The LDP is infamous for massive inefficient pork barrel spending, protectionism, and bureaucracy. It is more akin to other long reigning post-war parties such as the Fianna Fail in Ireland or the pre-Sarkozy conservative parties in France. These parties are paternalistic and populist and will not hesitate to expand government to reach that aim.
August 30th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
#8, sounds like the Republucans under Bush.
August 30th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
#8: I was also wondering how the party that engineered Japan’s centrally-planned economy could be called conservative.
In any case, they are terminally corrupt (inevitable in a party that has ruled so long) and thoroughly deserved their fate.
August 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
9, the Bush administration was protectionist? The LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY has more in resemblance with the…drumroll please…the liberal Democrats who are our overlords right now. Any other stupid turds that your mind has crushed in to a gem that you’re willing to share on this Sunday?
August 30th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
No country in history has ever had an expanding economy concurrent with a contracting population base. Japan’s population topped out at 126 million 2 years ago and has been shrinking since. Their birth rate is 1.25 per fertile female, pathetically below the replacement rate of 2.1. And it’s falling precipitously even from that level. Long before hitting absolute decline, however, their population was aging. Immigration as a solution is out of the question for them, and provision for senior citizens is strongly inherent in their social/political/economic structure. In short, they’re screwed. Facing economic oblivion, look for younger generation Japanese to flee for greener pastures, although right now it’s hard to tell where they might find them.
August 30th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Well, I mean in terms of being supposedly conservative yet presiding over large government expansions.
The fact that the Bush administration drastically increased government is undeniable, although so did Clinton, Bush 41, beloved Reagan etc. (and so is Obama)
August 30th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
The LDP supports privatisation of gov’t enterprises, tax reform, streamlining bureaucracy, and generally a strong national defense. It also aligns itself with conservative parties in other countries.
The DPJ is largely pacifict, alligns itself with the U.S. Democratic party, and is generally seen as centre-left. Although I will admit that they largely have no ideology whatsoever and their only real platform is hatred of the LDP. Yukio Hatoyama, the current leader, does not come from the far left of the party, but his faction sits roughly in the center of the DPJ, meaning he is center-left.
I will continue in my assertion that Hatoyama is essentially the Japanese Obama, will steer the country to the left, make the recession worse, and leave office in a few years as a deeply unpopular leader.
The LDP is indeed a beureaucratic monster with little ideology other than holding on to it’s own power. However, they are – broadly speaking – the conservative party in Japan. Their defeat was well deserved today, but when the currrent re-allignment is finished, I think that we will be left with a two party dystme similar to the U.S. – and the LDP will be playing the role of the Republicans. Anyone who thinks the DPJ will chart a remotely conservative course is kidding themselves.
Note that the DPJ will be forming a coalition government with the Social Democrats, and their election is being cheered by the Communist Party of Japan, who see them as far more friendly than the LDP.
Both parties have deep issues right now – but I think it’s clear that the LDP are our friends and the DPJ are not.
August 30th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Also, “Liberal Democrat” means extremely different things to diffent countries. The U.S. is the only country where the term “Liberal” can be interchanged with “socialist.” To the rest of the world, “liberal” is still used in the classical sense, and the parties are either center-left (UK, Canada) or right wing (Australia, Germany, Japan.)
August 30th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
I was just thinking that Adam, the meaning of the word “liberal” is very different in other countries.
August 30th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Liberal is different from liberal. My hero John Howard was a Liberal.
August 30th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Kevin,
But it simply isn’t honestly to put in the same sentence that Clinton (and Reagan, even) and Obama expanded government as if they were one in the same. Clinton and Obama have been lightyears apart on fiscal policy – Obama has drastically expanded the deficit, promoted billions of dollars of wasteful government spending, proposed via his cronies in the Congress ample amounts of new wastes of taxpayer dollars like GM and healthcare.
Clinton, on the other hand, was running a budget surplus by the end of his term and had, with the Republicans, trimmed plenty of old bureaucracies. Growth in government certainly did not outpace growth in GDP.
Obama on the other hand seems to prefer that our government functions more like Michigan, or Illinois, or California. And no one, not even the liberals that live in those states, care for those governments when actually put into practice. They are disasters across the board.
August 30th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
#18, okay, I’ll agree with you there. Clinton and the Republicans in Congress did well in managing deficits and cutting bureaucracies.
Obama obviously isn’t doing well, and the Bushes and Reagan did horrible with deficits as well.
August 30th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
these guys win after 60 plus years?..well maybe there is hope for the Libertarians after all
August 31st, 2009 at 1:49 am
It’s like my mom keeps saying really, we need Democrats and Republicans both in power to place a check of responsibility on one another. Clinton and Gingrich couldn’t pull too far to ideological extremes, always having one another to keep things in check. The result? Effective, solutions-focused government.
August 31st, 2009 at 1:55 am
Um, dude, Koike CAN’T stand for leader of the opposition, if she’s lost her seat. That’s why it’s important.
August 31st, 2009 at 7:40 am
Concerning Japan as an old WWII veteran once told me. We kicked the crap out of
them then we gave it all back. Well, the communist must have infiltrated Japan just like
the communist barac infiltrated america. How did barac do it:
1. 40 years of divorce in which judges bought womens votes by giving them the kids and
in effect bastardizing the children. These fatherless children grew up to find new fathers
that is the liberal brainwashing college professor, the incompetant social worker, and
it all culminated with them elected a daddy government marxist named barac. You here these
children periodicall speaking of all the freebies they get. $8,000 for house, $4,500 for
clunker, they want their appliance paid for to. It’s so unfortunate that these kids don’t
have a work ethic. See if there plan did happen and down the road when all the productive
americans have move to heaven they will look around and only see the parasites they have
become. They will only have themselves to blame for feeding like a swine at the trough and
nothing better than that. See barac is trying to control you completely and you don’t
even realize it. he’s stacking his government with marxist and mainly blacks.
2. All I can say about Japan is as an anti military new government north korea will have
a lot of fun with them. By the way, are you aware that hitler did the same thing barac is
doing now. He praised the military so the people thought he really cared about the
military. He doesn’t at all. And Hitler resurge his economy falsely by printing lots of
money and propaganda that the economy after the jews is good now. barac doing the same
thing. he’s selling america to china in order to borrow money from the chinese. you
think it’s good cash for clunkers, etc but that is all paid for by china. so when
china comes calling don’t think that barac will be their to bail you out. And finally,
hitler had the jews to blame for everything. Who will barac’s jews be in america. They
will be white folks all of them and their children.
September 1st, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Japan’s demographics, not politics, is the problem. Koizumi will help bring cut their deficit and slow their continuing collapse, but Japan’s longstanding problems will prevent it from experiencing any kind of recovery.