Rasmussen Pennsylvania Political Survey
Pennsylvania Democratic Senate Primary
- Arlen Specter 47% (51%)
- Joe Sestak 34% (32%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- Arlen Specter 71% (72%) / 25% (26%) [+46%]
- Joe Sestak 54% (57%) / 23% (21%) [+31%]
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?
- Strongly approve 29% (42%)
- Somewhat approve 22% (18%)
- Somewhat disapprove 12% (13%)
- Strongly disapprove 35% (26%)
Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
- Strongly favor 21%
- Somewhat favor 21%
- Somewhat oppose 12%
- Strongly oppose 41%
Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters (including 423 Likely Democratic Primary Voters) was conducted August 11. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points; +/- 5 percentage points for the Democratic senatorial primary. Results from the poll conducted June 16 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.
Just 29% of likely Democratic Primary voters now have a very favorable opinion of the incumbent senator. That’s down six points since June. But only 14% have a very favorable opinion of Sestak, down four points from the earlier survey.
The number with a very unfavorable view: 14% for Specter and five percent (5%) for Sestak.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats favor the plan, but 83% of Republicans are opposed. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 39% like the plan while 59% do not. Only 14% of unaffiliateds strongly favor the plan while 46% are strongly opposed.
August 12th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Sestak is the one winning Democrats opposed to Obamacare.
Among PA likely Democrat voters:
Specter/Sestak
Overall: 47/34
Strongly favor Obamacare: 60/25
Somewhat favor: 49/27
Somewhat oppose: 35/57
Strongly oppose: 18/64
August 12th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
PA numbers look almost identical to the national numbers.
Could this purplely blue state be trending to pure purple?
August 12th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
#2, Pennsylvania has been lusted after by the Republicans for a long time, but they won’t get it anytime soon. It’s quite the blue state. It hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988.
August 12th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
What has happened to Obama’s approval numbers since June? (June numbers in parentheses)
Overall: 51/48 (60/39)
White: 44/55 (53/46)
GOP: 20/79 (30/68)
Moderate: 55/44 (71/28)
It appears that moderate Republicans came home.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
However, unlike states like VA & NC, Obama is still in comfortable positive territory. This means that in 2012 Obama will almost certainly bring home the EV from PA. This is bad news for rising GOP star Rick Santorum, who was likely to run on the promise that given he’d already won two statewide elections in PA (as opposed to Obama’s one) he should be given a shot in 2012.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
#3,
That’s true – but it’s not the entire story. Republican Tom Corbett was able to win as Attorney General in the state even as Barack Obama won by double digits. He’s in a good position to win the gubernatorial race, provided he doesn’t get too bloodied in a primary.
The GOP controls the state senate by 30-20 and the Dems only have a very narrow 104-99 majority in the General Assembly. It could very easily be flipped back.
Democrats have been on a roll in congressional races lately but they are overextended and some of the House members are going to have big targets on their back, especially if Obama’s numbers slide further.
Kathy Dahlkemper (D), the new congresswoman from PA-3, comes from a district that was carried by John McCain. Same holds true for Altmire in PA-4, which McCain carried by 12-points. McCain even carried Jack Murtha’s district narrowly last year, while Al Gore carried it by a landslide in 2000.
Bottom line is that the east is trending left while the west is trending right. Sooner or later the Democrats in the left are going to buckle under the new political realities – and that will bolster GOP numbers in the state (as Republicans in the east, save only for Carlie Dent, aren’t exactly numerous these days).
You’re right though about the presidential races. Unless or until the GOP can figure out a way to win the popular vote by 3 or 4 points – the party won’t win Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Rick Santorum’s star has flamed out. He’s not a rising star. And I voted for him when I lived in PA in 2000. He’s done. He’s just too outspoken.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Sestak is going to be a formiddable opponent for Spector. Despite having all the establishment behind Spector, Sestak has been able to raise lots of cash, while building support in the polls. He appears to have done this in 2006 as well, beating the establishment candidate.
Rubio should be watching Sestak and learning how you taken an incumbent down (although Crist didn’t switch parties as blatently as Spector did)
August 12th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
hehe, Adam I was being sarcastic. I thought the “two vs one” would make that obvious.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Sorry. I thought you were JA Pruce. I should have looked more closely.
August 12th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Oooooooo, I don’t know what to say!
August 12th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Why are the likes of Santorum even thinking about running for POTUS? I blame Barack Obama. The guy has a lot to answer for. In times past, you woudn’t dream of running for President straight after becoming a US Senator. You would realise that you need to get more experience, do your current job properly for a while, and then look to advance later on.
Now, every politician with an ego problem (i.e. every politician) believes that they can do an Obama by running a “movement” campaign, defeating better qualified opponents due to the adulation of the adoring crowd. So they’re all going to run in the hope that they can replicate what he did. The debates in 2011 are going to be very very crowded…
August 12th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Giuliani, Bleier throw support behind Flight 93 memorial
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_637853.html
August 12th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Like I said months ago, Specter is done. It’s absolutely pathetic that a guy who’s been up there since 1980 can only muster a 13 point lead over an obscure congressman at this juncture. And he’s LOSING those opposed to Obamacare? Those would likely be the more conservative Democrats, Arlen’s bread and butter in another lifetime. If he somehow survives Sestak (deeply unlikely), that raw deterioration makes him easy pickings for a more cautious Toomey.
August 12th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Just signed up to help bob mcdonell’s campaign for VA gov. tonight go to my first event this saturday !
August 12th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Specter’s favorables are great.
August 12th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
I can’t wait for tomorrow’s poll on how Specter fairs against Toomey! Anyone care to bet? I think its at least 50/50 that Toomey is ahead…
If that happens, Specter won’t know whether to turn farther left to beat Sestak or farther right to beat Toomey. Won’t that be fun!
August 12th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Matthew,
“And he’s LOSING those opposed to Obamacare? Those would likely be the more conservative Democrats, Arlen’s bread and butter in another lifetime.”
Indeed. The only hope of the former Republican now is that the most liberal segment of the Democratic Party will save him.
Ironic, isn’t it?
August 12th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Indeed. The only hope of the former Republican now is that the most liberal segment of the Democratic Party will save him.
Most Democratic sites favor Sestak. Arlen speaks for himself only.
August 12th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Spector needs Obama to back him in a big way. But would Obama do that? Sestak is far better fit for Obama than Spector is. He’s a self-professed change agent, young, and liberal. If he won he’d be a bigger help to Obama in the Senate than the independent minded Spector, and would hold the seat for the Dems for a while probably.
Maybe Obama could offer Sestak a senior admin post. He’s a former Admiral (did you know that? he points it out in virtually every sentence) so SecDef (if Gates is moving on) would make sense. It would save Spector too.
August 12th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Gary Johnson for President 2012: This Revolution Never Dies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17rd1kzTNmc
August 12th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Specter ran around in the early 90s with a chart showing the evils of national healthcare. Now he is all for it. If that does not scream he only cares about himself and will say anything to stay in office nothing will.
August 12th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
At Town Hall, A Turning Point?
Specter’s Performance May Be Factor, For Good or Ill, in His Reelection Bid
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/12/AR2009081203272_pf.html
August 12th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Aron, you are supporting Specter or Toomey?
August 13th, 2009 at 6:49 am
“Aron, you are supporting Specter or Toomey?” Haha shhhhhhhhhh, be careful what questions you ask, you don’t know what the answer will be.