Research 2000/Daily Kos Virginia Survey
If the 2009 election for Governor were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Creigh Deeds the Democrat and Bob McDonnell the Republican?
- Bob McDonnell 51% (45%)
- Creigh Deeds 43% (44%)
Among Independents
- Bob McDonnell 55% (47%)
- Creigh Deeds 40% (44%)
Among Men
- Bob McDonnell 57% (49%)
- Creigh Deeds 40% (40%)
Among Women
- Creigh Deeds 46% (48%)
- Bob McDonnell 45% (41%)
Among Whites
- Bob McDonnell 65% (59%)
- Creigh Deeds 33% (34%)
Northern Virginia
- Creigh Deeds 65% (64%)
- Bob McDonnell 27% (22%)
“Real” Virginia
- Bob McDonnell 60% (54%)
- Creigh Deeds 35% (36%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- Bob McDonnell 57% (55%) / 38% (36%) [+19%]
- Barack Obama 51% (56%) / 44% (41%) [+7%]
- Creigh Deeds 46% (47%) / 40% (35%) [+6%]
Among Independents
- Bob McDonnell 56% (53%) / 37% (35%) [+19%]
- Barack Obama 49% (54%) / 44% (41%) [+5%]
- Creigh Deeds 45% (46%) / 42% (34%) [+3%]
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted August 3-5. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% (D); 33% (R); 28% (I). Results from the poll conducted June 15-17 are in parentheses.
Bachmann Calls For McCarthyite Investigation Into Anti-American Activities Of Liberals
August 6th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Aron,
Kos and Rasmussen now have their NJ polls up.
August 6th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
The real difference here is party ID. This has a sample with a GREATER Democrat/Republican ratio than the 2008 election. Since there’s absolutely no way that will actually be the case, I’m starting to really believe those earlier Virginia polls. This is almost identical to the SurveyUSA poll with white voters (65-32 in SUSA vs 65-33 here).
August 6th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
“This has a sample with a GREATER Democrat/Republican ratio than the 2008 election.”
Matthew, it’s actually the exact same ratio as the 2008 election.
August 6th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Larry Sabato declares the lead now indisputable (though not insurmountable). McDonnell has established a clear lead outside the margin of error and is building on it with greater enthusiasm and favorables.
It is likely to get worse for Deeds. He is not energizing the Dem base, especially African-Americans, and has failed to establish any real narrative for the campaign for why independents should choose him over the popular former AG.
Bolling’s campaign also seems to be clicking along and is likely running parallel with McDonnell’s. Hopefully, there will be some coattails for Kucinelli, whose campaign has taken a bit to get off the ground.
August 6th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Tommy Boy,
Right, I was thinking about the 2006 results. Still, how likely is that?
August 6th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Miller,
It’s not. Wishful thinking from Kos.
I think we’ve reverted back to where we stood in 2004 and 2006 in terms of D/R/I if you go by the PPP and SurveyUSA polling.
August 6th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Note that Obama won 64% in Nova as well.
This poll is providing further confirmation that McDonnell is just winning with the base by winning 80+% of conservatives, whether the conservatives are dems, repubs, or indies.
August 6th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
LOL didn’t know there was such a thing as a “fake” Virginia?
August 6th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Christie 50
Corzine 37
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor
August 6th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Christie 48(46)
Corzine 40 (39)
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/6/13211/24460
August 7th, 2009 at 12:34 am
Mitt Romney & the GOP’s Nationalist Rump
http://www.spectator.co.uk/alexmassie/5247496/mitt-romney-and-the-gops-nationalist-rump.thtml
Mitt Romney’s Big-Government Health Care Plan
The governor’s program is hardly a model for the nation–it’s a mess.
by Peter Robinson
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/06/mitt-romney-health-care-gop-opinions-columnists-peter-robinson.html
August 7th, 2009 at 12:37 am
Ex E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman, GOP candidate for governor, lays out priorities in visit to Cuyamaca College: jobs, education, & spending cuts for California
http://eastcountymagazine.org/?q=node/1730
August 7th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Pawlenty praises ethanol, wind turbines at Farmfest
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/52622067.html?elr=KArks:DCiUo3PD:3D_V_qD3L:c7cQKUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
August 7th, 2009 at 12:52 am
New information challenges Palin stimulus claims
http://www.ktuu.com/Global/story.asp?S=10863833
August 7th, 2009 at 1:20 am
“The only requirement is for the state to provide assurances that it will encourage municipalities to adopt energy efficiency codes and promote reduced energy consumption in private and public buildings.”
So how exactly is her stimulus claim challenged?
http://wayback.archive-it.org/1200/20090726151854/http://gov.state.ak.us/archive.php?id=1860&type=1
“I cannot in good conscience agree to use the full authority of state government to ‘promote’ and advocate on behalf of Washington, D.C. that our communities adopt the building codes or their equivalent.”
Since this letter would require the state government to “provide assurances that it will encourage municipalities to adopt energy efficiency codes and promote reduced energy consumption in private and public buildings,” how is that any different from her objection to using “the full authority of state government to ‘promote’ and advocate on behalf of Washington, D.C. that our communities adopt the building codes or their equivalent.”
August 7th, 2009 at 1:24 am
Shock: Chris Matthews Asks “Is Sarah Palin the Poster Girl for Racism?;” Kathleen Parker Heartily Agrees
By Ace
http://minx.cc/?post=290623
http://www.kxmc.com/News/Nation/416908.asp (Video)
“Sarah Palin’s very existence as a white woman was a racist dog-whistle. See, we’re not allowed to run this white woman against this black guy ‘and pretend like there’s nothing happening there.’”
August 7th, 2009 at 1:26 am
Pawlenty takes on national health care. Irony ensues.
Our governor, whose record in this area is one of denying access, faults government plans and yet promotes one from Minnesota.
http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentary/52617247.html?elr=KArksD:aDyaEP:kD:aUq9_b9b_jEkP:QUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
August 7th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Romney And Nationalism
By Daniel Larison
http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2009/08/06/romney-and-nationalism/
August 7th, 2009 at 1:28 am
Krugman Disses Rasmussen Poll – But Forgets to Fact-Check
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/krugman_disses_rasmussen_poll_but_forgets_to_fact_check
In a blog posting yesterday, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman raises questions about a recent Rasmussen Reports poll of Massachusetts voters. The poll shows that Bay State voters are less than enthusiastic about the state’s experiment in health care reform.
Krugman states that “last year polling seemed to show very strong support for the Massachusetts plan.” He then asks, “So has support plunged since then? Or is the wording of the Rasmussen poll calculated to give a negative result?”
Krugman must have an interesting definition of “very strong support.” The poll he cited found that just 14% want to continue the state’s health care reform program, 12% want to repeal it, and 70% want to keep it but change it.
In fairness, the survey did find support for the goals of the program and some individual aspects of it. However, the survey by the Harvard School of Public Health and the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Foundation broadly confirms the key results of the Rasmussen poll.
For example, Rasmussen Reports found that 21% believe the state’s health care reform made health care more affordable while 27% said it’s now less affordable and 44% say there has been no change.
The Harvard study found that 20% believed the Health Insurance Law had helped the cost of health care in Massachusetts while 39% said it had hurt and 30% said it was not having much impact. That assessment is actually more negative than the finding in the Rasmussen Reports survey. By the way, the Harvard study also found that 33% believed their own cost of care had gone up while just six percent (6%) said it had gone down.
Rasmussen Reports asked if the program was a success. Twenty-six percent (26%) say yes, 37% say no, and 37% are not sure.
Harvard did not ask that question. However, they did find that just 14% said they had been helped by the bill while 18% said they had been hurt by it. Additionally, 14% said the legislation helped the state budget, and 39% said it hurt. Again, if anything, the Rasmussen Reports numbers seem a bit more upbeat than the survey cited by Krugman.
The Harvard survey also delved into some topics not explored by Rasmussen Reports. By a 45% to 33% margin, the Harvard survey found that people believed the plan helped the uninsured. By a 44% to 31% margin, they thought it helped the poor. But they were evenly divided as to whether or not it helped the middle class. Most (56%) said the state reform plan hurt small businesses while only 13% believed those businesses were helped.
Since the Harvard study – but before the Rasmussen Reports survey, Massachusetts began to experience severe financial difficulties related in part to the health care law.
Rather than recognizing the common ground between the Harvard and Rasmussen Reports polls, Krugman simply aired his assertion and then added, “I will say that Rasmussen is coming in for a lot of criticism for what looks like slanted polling.” For this, he cited an article quoting three Democratic pollsters who raised questions about the relevance of the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Approval Index.
Again, Krugman should have looked a little closer. The article he cited concluded this way, “And for the record, Rasmussen’s final polls [before the November election] had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama’s final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there. So don’t count him out.”
Krugman, named in January by Forbes.com as the most influential liberal in the U.S. media, was the winner last year of the Nobel Prize for Economics and is a regular columnist for the New York Times. Earlier this year, however, when Rasmussen Reports polled on several representative Krugman quotes, the columnist’s views were generally at odds with those of most Americans.
For example, Krugman asserted that you should “write off anyone who asserts that it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.” But the survey found that 53% said it’s always better to cut taxes while just 24% shared Krugman’s view.
August 7th, 2009 at 1:32 am
A Tip for The GOP: Look Away
By Kathleen Parker
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/04/AR2009080402424_pf.html
August 7th, 2009 at 1:33 am
Voinovich and the South
By Ramesh Ponnuru
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzI1ZDNhYjE4NTBlN2Y5MTQ2N2Q2MjU5MzMxY2ZjYjE=
Kathleen Parker provides a gloss on the senator’s recent remarks: “Whatever Voinovich’s sound effects were intended to convey, his meaning was clear enough: Those ignorant, right-wing, Bible-thumping rednecks are ruining the party.” What was interesting about Voinovich’s remarks — which I think are fairly read as a complaint that the party is too conservative in tone, and possibly in substance as well — is that they came from someone who has voted with the National Right to Life Committee 100 percent of the time as a senator, supported the Federal Marriage Amendment, and done a lot to promote school choice. The implicit criticism of the party, then, is not what one normally associates with the phrase “Bible thumping.” Voinovich truly differs from the mainstream of his party in being friendlier to government activism. Southern Republicans, very much including DeMint and Coburn, the senators Voinovich singled out for criticism, tend to be more anti-statist than the rest of the party (and, of course, the nation).
August 7th, 2009 at 1:35 am
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/08/06/2021228.aspx
As Creigh Deeds continues his nine-day tour through “Deeds Country” — the nickname he’s given a section of rural southwest Virginia — one thing is clear: “it apparently isn’t Obama Country.” In many of the small towns Deeds is visiting, “Obama did not break 35 percent of the vote.” Like the campaigns of Virginia Democrats like Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, Obama won Virginia “because he won big in the state’s suburban areas.” It’s a delicate balance for Deeds. When he ran for governor, he underperformed Tim Kaine in Northern Virginia, and he needs the president — who campaigns for him today — to pump up turnout in the most populous part of the state. Deeds’ rural Virginia strategy is a good way to “force Republican Bob McDonnell to spend resources in parts of the state he might have considered safe, according to the Deeds campaign.
August 7th, 2009 at 1:36 am
In defense of Deeds Country
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/in-defense-of-deeds-country.html
So let’s say we’re looking at an electorate of 2,000,000 voters in Virginia this year. With Bob McDonnell leading 51-37 that puts him at 1,020,000 and Creigh Deeds at 740,000 with 240,000 undecided. Let’s go ahead and give two thirds of the undecideds to Deeds (since proportionally two thirds of them approve of Barack Obama’s job performance). That puts McDonnell at 1.1 million votes and Deeds at 900,000 as of today.
There are two ways for Deeds to make up that gap. Convince folks who aren’t currently planning to turn out to do so, or get folks currently planning to vote for McDonnell to change their minds.
Barack Obama’s support is surely going to help Deeds on that first front, but it’s asking an awful lot for his star power to bring out an extra 200,000 Democratic voters.
That means Deeds has to win over a decent number of folks planning to vote for McDonnell who are going to vote, whoever they vote for. That means he needs to get the votes of folks who don’t like what Barack Obama’s doing as President. And it seems like the most logical group of Obama disapproving potential supporters are those in his part of the state- ‘Deeds Country’- where he’s been touring in the last week. He can speak to those voters as one of them, and hope that common regional background can help overcome their conservative leanings or distrust of the President.
If you convince folks who aren’t inclined to vote to come out and support you you’re at +1 in making up that 200,000 voter gap. If you can convince folks who are definitely going to turn out but are currently planning to vote for McDonnell you’re at +2 in making up that 200,000 voter gap because you’re subtracting one from his column while adding one to yours.
Right now Deeds is trailing 52-35 among likely voters who have a positive opinion of both him and McDonnell- and those folks live disproportionately in Deeds Country. If this is going to be a Republican electorate he needs to turn that number among the candidates’ mutual admirers on its head. There’s no doubt he has work to do shoring up the base in more populous, more Democratic parts of the state but if he doesn’t make more in roads with conservative leaning independents and some Republicans in his part of the state, increasing enthusiasm for himself in NoVa and Tidewater isn’t going to be enough.
So was this tour worth a week of his time three months out from the election? I’m inclined to think yes if it helps to counteract the problems I’ve outlined here.
August 7th, 2009 at 1:45 am
Democrats Weigh the Calculus of Public Insurance
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/06/AR2009080601574_pf.html
Health-Care Reform: A Better Plan
By Charles Krauthammer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/06/AR2009080602933_pf.html
‘You Are Terrifying Us’
Voters send a message to Washington, and get an ugly response.
by Peggy Noonan
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204908604574334623330098540.html#printMode
August 7th, 2009 at 1:47 am
The NRA’s Pyrrhic “Victory” on Sotomayor
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/nras-pyrrhic-victory-on-sotomayor.html
“The question is whether the NRA was really doing the Republicans any favors – particularly given that the outcome of the vote was not really in doubt. I don’t hink that this vote will turn out to be a particularly big deal – but it’s going to turn off a few Hispanic voters for seemingly little upside, as there are rather few Americans who are strongly opposed to Sotomayor and as individual Supreme Court justices rarely make news once they join the bench. Overall, it speaks to a Republican Party that remains convinced that catering to its narrowing base – rather than hoping to expand it – is the way to win elections. That might not actually be a horrible strategy in 2010, when I expect the Republican base to be more enthusiastic than the Democratic one and for their higher turnout to swing a few — or maybe more than a few — elections. But I think it’s a mistake, in all likelihood, for 2012 and beyond.”
August 7th, 2009 at 1:51 am
Has Silver seen this poll?
Democracy Corps Poll
http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor072609fq9-d.pdf
Favorable/Unfavorable rating among likely voters [net in brackets]
National Rifle Association: 48/27 [+21]
Barack Obama: 54/35 [+19]
Democrat Party: 41/42 [-1]
Gay marriage: 24/53 [-29]
August 7th, 2009 at 1:54 am
Aim Low
Haley Barbour is the GOP’s leading candidate in 2012—for vice president.
http://www.slate.com/id/2224345/
August 7th, 2009 at 2:00 am
White House Struggles to Gauge Afghan Success
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/world/asia/07policy.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print
Clinton threatens Eritrea action
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US will “take action” against Eritrea if it does not stop supporting militants in Somalia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8186781.stm
President Obama injects life into Creigh Deeds’ campaign
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25902.html#ixzz0NThQ3BMy
Doubt Raised on Gitmo Closing Date
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124960175308212811.html#printMode
Immigration Effort Draws GOP Backer
Senate Democrats have found a Republican in Sen. Lindsey Graham to help them push for passage of a comprehensive immigration overhaul this year.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124957962686211693.html#printMode
August 7th, 2009 at 2:07 am
Schiff up with Senate site, raises $465k
http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/08/06/schiff-up-with-senate-site-raises-465k/
August 7th, 2009 at 2:12 am
“Man and Wife. Say Man and Wife.”
By Glen Bolger
http://blog.pos.org/2009/08/man-and-wife-say-man-and-wife/
Married men and married women have much more similar attitudes on core political questions than married men have with unmarried men, and married women have with unmarried women.
For example, both married men and married women are far more pessimistic about the direction of the country than unmarried men/women. Among married men, the mood is 31% right direction/59% wrong track. Married women say a similar 32% RD/61% WT. However, unmarried men aren’t as negative (42% RD/50% WT), while unmarried women are optimistic (53% RD/38% WT). (Apologies to Hollywood — I know movies about optimistic unmarried women don’t exactly make for great romantic comedy scripts, so just stick with formula you’ve been using for years.)
The same gap exists on Obama’s job rating. Married men (45% approve/49%disapprove) and married women (47% approve/48% disapprove) are similar. Unmarried men are still supportive (56% approve/40% disapprove), while unmarried women are wildly supportive (68% approve/24% disapprove).
Finally, it provides a significant clue for a key target group for GOP congressional candidates. On the tied generic ballot, married men (53% GOP/31% Dem) and married women (50% GOP/37% Dem) both vote Republican by double digits. However, unmarried men (33% GOP/46% Dem) and unmarried women (28% GOP/61% Dem) are double digits the other way.
Some — but not all — is driven by ethnicity. In the sample, 85% of married women are white (a group more supportive of the GOP), and 79% of married men are white. Those figures drop to 68% among unmarried women and 71% among unmarried men.
The need for the GOP to improve with minorities is the subject of other blog posts. However, it is clear that Republican candidates need not be intimidated by polls showing GOP weakness with women. Instead, married women are clearly a key target for Republican campaigns. As the Princess Bride proved, it’s important to say “I do” for the marriage to count. It’s also important to target those who do say “I do.”
August 7th, 2009 at 4:20 am
“Man and Wife. Say Man and Wife.” Interesting post. Haha, so if you are still single, you should find a wife.