H/T; Tommy Boy
Obama is weakening and the three leading 2012 GOP candidates are getting stronger in head-to-head match-ups. 2010 will be a Republican year!
Here’s the link to the actual poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_720.pdf
Here’s the link to the poll from last month:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_720.pdf
Here is the ”Inside the Numbers” analysis:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/obama-continues-to-drop.html
PPP’s monthly national survey shows Barack Obama’s approval rating continuing to drop. It’s now at 50% with 43% of voters disapproving, continuing a steady decline from 52% in June and 55% in May.
Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.
While he’s continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That’s four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November….The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we’ve been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain.It’s also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.
The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it’s been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.
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Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
question i have been wondering lets say we wipe the floor in the 2010 elections but will we have have time to regroup and start 2012 cause i am just afraid shortly after 2010 obama and his crew will have more 2012 campaign and I am afraid he will have alot of free time to ”rework and redesign ” his 2012 campaign due to being angry if we wipe the floor in 2010.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
I would not be surprised if he is working on his 2012 campaign already! We in the gop need to start on 2012 now i think!
July 20th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
#2, we need to win in 2010 first. This is critical for 2012. We need at least 50% of governorships, especially in swoing States and swing congressional districts.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
greg.#1,
Yes, we will have time to regroup if 2010 turns into another 1994. Hopefully we will find a better Speaker than Newt Gingrich was. Plus, the most likely candidates for President on our side will not be holding office in 2011 and will have all the time in the world to campaign. Bob Dole was a senior senator (Majority leader if memory serves) in the lead-up to 1996. Plus, he was as dull as toast. As I understand it (and I truly have no personal knowledge of this), that affliction only affects Pawlenty. The rest of the likely runners have plenty of charisma, some more than others.
So, yes, I think we can take back Congress in 2010 and still kick Obama out in 2012.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
but aren’t you concerned that obama is working on 2012 plan already as we speak? I AM
July 20th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
4,
If we managed to re-take the House, I think we could safely assume that Boehner or Cantor would become Speaker. I think the Republican leadership would fall behind Cantor, in an effort to advance a “new Republican era” theme. Dems could easily connect Boehner to Bush.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Kris,
Can you reply to the e-mail I sent you last night via e-mail?
July 20th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Speaker Boehner. *shudder*.
July 20th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Does any one think come 2012 will voters REMEMBER all these Bailouts ect and health care bill ect. and it will be obama’s problem come 2012 when these people go vote in 3 1/2 years?
July 20th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Cook Political Report Gubernatorial Races
DEMOCRAT HELD SEATS:
AR – Solid D
MD – Solid D
MA – Solid D (I would quibble with this if GOP can field a strong candidate. If MA voters would rather have Romney back after he ran to the right – that says something)
NH- Solid D
ME – Likely D
NM – Likely D
OH – Likely D (This isn’t going to stay here. Kasich is going to make it a race. Cook tends to throw lots of weight to incumbents this early in a cycle).
OR – Likely D
CO – Lean D
IL – Lean D
IA – Lean D
NJ – Lean D *2009* (I would put this into the Tossup column – though realistically Corzine has to be the slight favorite considering the political leanings of NJ)
PA – Lean D (It all depends on the candidates. Tom Corbett would be a stronger than average GOP choice. He won last Fall as attorney general while Obama won the state by double digits)
WI – Lean D
MI – Tossup (Could there be a governor more inept than Granholm? Miss 15 % unemployment? Then again, the Republicans got their clocks cleaned in 2006 with DaVos. Who knows?)
OK – Henry (I’ve got to believe that the GOP could come up with a credible challenger in such a blood red state. But OK Democrats know they can’t act like typical national Democrats. As a result, Henry is pretty popular.)
KS – Lean Republican Takeover (It’s an open seat…in Kansas)
TN – Lean Republican Takeover (Open seat)
WY – Lean Republican Takeover (Open seat)
GOP HELD SEATS
AK – Solid R (Unless Parnell does something stupid…)
ID – Solid R
NE – Solid R
SC – Solid R (Will this change after the candidate is known?)
SD – Solid R
AL – Likely R
CT – Likely R (As long as Rell runs)
TX – Likely R (If Perry wins then I don’t see how he gets picked off by a Democrat)
UT – Likely R
VT – Likely R (Somehow Douglas keeps winning)
AZ – Toss Up (If Brewer proves her worth she ought to be able to hold on for a full term in this R leaning state. We can thank Obama for taking Napolitano off our hands)
CA – Toss Up (Cook is being generous. This is going to end badly for the GOP)
FL – Toss Up (This sounds about right. Can McCollum win statewide as governor? It’s going to be close either way)
GA – Toss Up (This is only a toss up because Roy Barnes is tougher than your average Democrat. Sonny Perdue offed Barnes in the GOP wave year of 2002 and Perdue wants some payback. It’s going to be close)
HI – Toss Up (Lingle is out. That probably means a Democrat is in. Especially since Hawaiians think that Obama is some sort of hybrid of Jesus, Moses and some sort of addictive drug)
MN – Toss Up (We’re probably going to lose this one too)
RI – Toss Ip (Carcieri again? Meh.)
We have some good opportunities to pick up some Democrat seats. We’re probably going to win three races in red states without breaking a sweat. It’s just that CA, HI and MN are almost certainly going to offset that.
Still, we’ve got to like our chances in VA, NJ, OH, PA. Time will tell.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:13 pm
TB, check your email. I am sorry I did not respond sooner. I was distracted last evening.
July 20th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Oops – I forgot the open seat in VA. Of course, that’s anybody’s ball game.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
If we retake the House and the Senate in 2010, we need to quickly pivot into campaign and infrastructure building mode for 2012. Whoever leads among the 2012 POTUS candidates in Dec. of 2010 should be given deference as the titular head of the Party and the potential opponents should fall in line to expedite any primary. We need to fall in line behind one leader (whomever that may be). We do not need a drawn out primary.
July 20th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Pruce,
“Whoever leads among the 2012 POTUS candidates in Dec. of 2010 should be given deference as the titular head of the Party and the potential opponents should fall in line to expedite any primary.”
Yeah, good luck with that. Has there EVER been an uncontested primary? No. Besides, there won’t be enough Republican hopeful news to make anyone a runaway favorite. And I guarantee you, no one is going to step aside because someone else is beating them 27-24 over a year before the voting begins. And the Democrats last year showed that long primaries are not fatal, and even have some benefits.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
I can see your point MWS, but my feeling is that we should avoid a bloodbath and focus on the general. I remember what happened to Bob Dole going up against an uncontested incumbent president. Hopefully Hillary will challenge Obama and then we can have a chance to get organized.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Please donate to http://www.sarahpac.com/
July 20th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Well Republicans aren’t going to retake the Senate in 2010 the party would have to pickup 11 seats without any of ours changing hands. Possible we might pick up 4-6 depending on the mood of the nation but 11 no way.
July 20th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Adam #10-
if I read this right these are governor races right?
if so i would say CO is a toss up at best right now, and may be leaning GOP. Ritter is highly unpopular with the rank and file DEMS (he vetoed a very pro labor bill this year) and he isnt very popular with the indies cause he has mismanaged the budget. I think CO could go GOP. depends how well McGinnis and Penry can catch on statewide.
July 21st, 2009 at 2:32 am
Big lesson from the last two cycles: he who controls the Internet controls the campaign. In 2004, Blogs for Bush blew away the competition. In 2008, the nutroots ruled.
This is the time when Republicans have to start ramping up to take back the internet not only for 2010, but also for 2012!
July 21st, 2009 at 8:59 am
for the record, I did not put up the donate to sarah pac. And anyone donating in my name is only wasting their money. It’s a lose-lose for them and for her.
Sorry folks. the http://www.sarahpac.com/ won’t get my vote nor my money!
July 21st, 2009 at 9:00 am
Ya’all just HATE it when Palins flip flops come to the surface, don’tcha? She flipped and flopped on Cap and Trade. What’s next?
July 21st, 2009 at 9:03 am
I would also like to complain that someone (flipper? or Anon?) has used my name. I don’t use yours, so please be adults. We can disagree about things thats fine. But to take off my posting about Palin flipping and flopping on cap and trade (with back up) and putting up the sarahpac donation is immature and bogus. It shows how petty and litte her supporters really are!
Now, in her interview with Katie Couric, she said she and mccain were FOR cap and trade. It’s on tape. It’s unaltered, and in her own words she says she supports it.
July 21st, 2009 at 9:13 am
Ya’all also might want to check out that pesky document called the constitution and the little part about free speech. Apparently, unless I am a plainista, free speech is not welcome?
July 21st, 2009 at 9:14 am
Huckabee continues to be our strongest candidate.
July 21st, 2009 at 9:15 am
What’s the idea of removing comments and replacing them with sarahpac… If you want to put sarahpac links, do it on your own comment.
Kavon, one of your boys have removed a perfectly good comment and replaced it with comment #16, a link to Sarahpac.
July 21st, 2009 at 9:20 am
If you look at the internals, Huckabee loses nearly the entire West. Mitt will win this thing for us. The internals are very clear on that.
July 21st, 2009 at 9:21 am
By the way, are the internals for Rasmussen available? If so, would someone with access please post all of the pertinent ones, regardless of who it favors? Thanks.
July 21st, 2009 at 10:09 am
While it’s not a link for the pac’s of any candidate, I am providing the BostonHearld link, that said that 40 percent of those polled feel that Palin did herself damage. It also shows that Mitt will win amoung Indy’s. You know them? The ones tha will swing the election one way or the other?
July 21st, 2009 at 10:10 am
http://news.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20090720poll_romney-obama_in_dead_heat/
sorry.
July 21st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
FOR RELEASE: JULY 20, 2009
Another Ethics Complaint Filed Against the Governor
July 20, 2009, Anchorage, Alaska – Once again, an ethics complaint has been filed and publicly released in violation of state law. This is the sixth complaint filed by Ms. McLeod. In addition, she has filed a lawsuit against the Governor’s office and multiple public records act requests. All of her prior complaints that have been ruled on have been dismissed. The Ethics Act serves important state interests in ensuring ethical state government and was intended to prevent the various forms of corrupt misconduct that had plagued the Legislature in prior years and which resulted in the prosecution of legislators and others. It is unfortunate that the law has been abused and trivialized in the current manner.
Today’s complaint, filed just six days before the Governor leaves office, alleges that Governor Palin violated the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act by failing to submit complete gift disclosure forms in a timely manner, and obtained “free” services. The apparent primary goal of this complaint has been achieved, namely, an effort to keep the complainant’s name in the paper. We anticipate another dismissal of this complaint as with the complainant’s other complaints. This is the fourth ethics complaint filed against the Governor since the announcement of her resignation on July 3. In every case, the complainers violated the confidentiality provision of the Ethics Act in making their complaints public knowledge.
THOMAS VAN FLEIN—Personal Attorney for Governor Palin
July 21st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
They seem to have lots of idiots up there.
July 21st, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Btw, I sure was talking about Sarah when I said that….talking about all those ethics charges that are obviously fraudulent. Huckabee didn’t fare so well on his charges.
July 21st, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Btw, I sure was not talking about Sarah when I said that….talking about all those ethics charges that are obviously fraudulent. Huckabee didn’t fare so well on his charges.
July 21st, 2009 at 2:02 pm
IllinoisGuy, Huckabee won all his ethics charges. What are you talking about.
July 21st, 2009 at 2:03 pm
IllinoisGuy, Huckabee won all his ethics charges. What are you talking about. Also, why are the same peopel defending Palin and her ethics complaints when that was the main gripe against Huckabee. Huckabee won all of his and so will Sarah. People who are filling those gripe about something as stupid as a homemade blanket that was reported as a 50.00 value when the lady said it was worth $200. Sheesh.
July 21st, 2009 at 2:13 pm
OH NO HE DIDN’T. He lost at least 5 of them.
July 21st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Huckabee had lots of main gripes!
July 21st, 2009 at 2:20 pm
The state Ethics Commission has investigated 14 complaints against Huckabee and validated five. Two pertain to unreported gifts – a $500 canoe and a $200 stadium blanket – and three to cash the governor or his wife received but did not initially report:
$43,150 from his 1994 lieutenant governor’s campaign for use of his personal airplane,
$14,000 Janet Huckabee received from his 1992 U.S. Senate campaign, and
$23,500 from a tax-exempt organization he incorporated with others in 1994, but whose funding source isn’t known. The Action America organization, Huckabee said, was set up to coordinate parts of his private-sector speaking schedule during his three years as lieutenant governor.
July 22nd, 2009 at 6:23 am
I don’t think the Republican Party will not invite Sarah Palin to make speeches for them. Some converatives don’t like Palin. She didn’t come and make speech when the Republicans had the fund raising dinner in June. Newt Gingrich was the speaker. I heard Gingrich’s speech and he did better than Palin. Palin has broken promises to the GOP and she is just a star to the news media. Gov. Tim Pawlenty will be speaker at GOP Committee meeting in San Diego, CA. I don’t know when. It will be interest to see what Pawlenty does. He might be better than Palin. The problem with Palin is the liberal news media. Just like Fred Barnes said Palin and Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. I agree with Barnes.