Mark B. Lowe provided some interesting analysis on the new Gallup poll, but upon reading the summary I noticed that Dr. Jim Clifton’s organization provided a slightly different analysis on the results.
One other word of caution for readers; many of the caucuses and primaries are closed to Democrat and independent voters and Gallup did not specify how many of the 455 interviewed were not registered Republicans.
- Palin’s strong showing suggests she remains a contender for GOP front-runner status even after her surprising decision to resign as governor of Alaska, which she announced July 3. Some have speculated that she made that decision with an eye toward running for president in 2012.
- This suggests no widespread deterioration in her image after her surprising decision to resign her post as governor with more than a year left in her term.
- However, Huckabee’s numbers among all Americans look better by comparison. Although each GOP contender receives a similar favorable rating from the American public — 43% for Palin, 37% for Romney, and 42% for Huckabee — Huckabee’s negatives are lower.
- Though it is little over a year since the 2008 GOP primaries, Americans’ opinions of Romney and Huckabee have changed significantly. Notably, each seems to have lost a significant share of the public familiarity he built up during the campaign. There has been a double-digit increase in the percentage of Americans who do not express either a positive or a negative opinion of both Romney and Huckabee.
Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.
July 16th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Yes, it is funny that even after Mrs. Palin resigned, she remain 16 points ahead of Mr. Romney in terms of favorability. This ought to frost them.
July 16th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Cheerleaders have high favorability ratings as well, but you wouldn’t want them as President.
July 16th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Newt isn’t running. He can’t win and he is smart enough to know it. He just wants the buzz of being considered a possible candidate. Newt’s 14% will go to someone else.
July 16th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I think it’s just hilarious that so many folks insist Huckabee won’t run, because he knows too many people hate him…and yet EVERY single poll has shown him with better favorable/unfavorable numbers than Romney. Maybe Huck won’t run, but it certainly won’t be because he’s been tarred as a religious bigot. That meme has only stuck for a handful of Romney supporters.
July 16th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Jonathan,
Perhaps to the guy he was discussing health care with yesterday? http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/07/16/gingrich_pawlenty_health_care/
I can dream.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
#5:
No doubt that Governor Pawlenty is running. I could see Gingrich quietly supporting Pawlenty, maybe becoming a quiet advisor to the Minnesotan.
To keep Newt happy (and out of the race), the candidates should offer to let him Chair the Platform Committee at the Republican Convention. There, Newt can channel his ideas into the Party’s Platform without wasting his time on a Presidential run.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Matthew,
Pawlenty and Gingrich are the two big ‘ideas’ guys in the party. Pawlenty is the perfect example of how a conservative should govern with a left-wing dominated legislature.
If we lose in 2012, he might just be my candidate for 2016.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
According to CNN, Palin’s PAC raised money from approximately 11,000 donors.
Romney about 750.
That’s the difference between grassroots and establishment support, folks.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Yes, Pawlenty and Romney are the two people that there can be no doubt about running. There is simply no earthly reason for Pawlenty not to unless he pulls a Sanford. Nor is there any earthly reason for Romney not to unless Ann’s health takes a turn for the worse.
Everyone else is iffy at best.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I would think that if Huckabee does not run, that he would end up endorsing Pawlenty. Why? 1. Palin lacks governing experience and Pawlenty has it-Pawlenty was reelected in a democratic state (Romney and Palin were not up to the challenge to get reelected). 2. Pawlenty is a strong supporter of cultural issues that are important to Huckabee. Pawlenty has not waivered on these issues 3. Pawlenty is likeable-he does not receive strong negatives from any area of the electorate.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
It would be interesting to see a demographic breakdown of Mr. Gingrich’s support, if Mr. Pawlenty does get in gear, he will probably get more of the Gingrichite vote than M & M.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
7. One of Pawlenty’s “big ideas” was too implement the most radical renewable energy mandates in the country, and then go around to all the states and try to sell it. Another big idea he likes is to listen to Carter on GW. No surprise he said “the era of smaller government is over”.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I think a lot of people like Palin – she’s an attractive charismatic figure. But just like here on race, they don’t necessarily think want her as president. That’s what the poll shows.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
#12:
He also single-handidly balanced the states budget when the Minnesota Legislature failed to act by the end of session. That is decisive leadership and strong fiscal conservatism. Pawlenty is a consensus candidate; he basically offends no one within the GOP and he can win in blue states. Primary voters may well say “Pawlenty? Sure, why not.”
July 16th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Texas.
It was you, wasn’t it, that assured me that Mike is in nearly full campaign mode right now?
If his numbers don’t start improving (at least into the twenties), his TV gig is going to start looking better and better to him. If they continue to drift downward, and he continues to campaign as hard as you say he is, then there really isn’t much point for him to run, is there? He’s getting too old to be satisfied with “moral victories”.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Palin is at minus 2. That ship has sailed.
July 16th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Interesting data:
Notes on Palin and the GOP
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/notes-on-palin-and-gop.html
So here’s a surprise from the national poll we did on Sarah Palin last week: she’s more popular with Republican voters in the northeast than in the south or midwest.
When you look at the ideological composition of Republican voters by region though it’s less startling: 74% of Republicans voters in the NE describe themselves as conservatives, not all that different from the 75% in the midwest, 79% in the south, and 73% in the west. It’s safe to say the days of Rockefeller Republicans are long gone- of course this same survey showed that only 19% of moderates nationally identify with the GOP so that’s no great shock.
Palin is viewed favorably by 89% of western Republicans, 86% in the northeast, 76% in the south, and 71% in the midwest. I wouldn’t extrapolate these numbers too far, but it might be an indication she could do better in New Hampshire than Iowa. That might be particularly true if Tim Pawlenty gets a next door bonus like Dick Gephardt did in 1988 and Barack Obama did last year.
The southern numbers aren’t that surprising to me. I think she will have a hard time there in the primaries if Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich is in the race.
It’s hard to believe we’re already less than two and a half years away from the beginning of the nomination contests!
July 16th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Matthew said: “I think it’s just hilarious that so many folks insist Huckabee won’t run” Really? There are a lot of us who say he will run because his ego won’t let him stay out of the race. So marK predicted that Huck wouldn’t run in a recent FPP, who else from the Romney camp (and it is at the Romney people that you are directing this innuendo and ire) has been saying that here?
“Maybe Huck won’t run, but it certainly won’t be because he’s been tarred as a religious bigot.” Oh that poor, slandered, victimized man! How could those hateful people say such things about that angel Huckabee?
“That meme has only stuck for a handful of Romney supporters.” Ya, only a few hundred thousand of us who live in key Western states that swung away from the GOP last year and to Obama, as well as a few hundred thousand in states like AZ that will be battleground states next cycle. But hey, you don’t need us to win elections do you?
July 16th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
MarK,
I don’t think it was me. I am puzzled by Huckabee not having higher numbers though. Hopefully he can turn that around.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
DanL,
Thunder is forever saying Huckabee won’t run. Heath swears that Huckabee isn’t a viable candidate and therefore won’t run. And almost every Romney supporter insists that Huckabee is doomed, even if he runs, because of all the latent hatred his bigotry created- except of course, there’s no evidence of any latent hatred in the actual polls. It’s just silliness.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Actually, Matthew and DanL, nowhere in my prediction that Huckabee wouldn’t run did I say anything about him being “hated”. My main thrust was and has always been that he seems to be settling in quite comfortably into his TV gig. That is what is going to convince him that a run for the Presidency is just not worth the hassle. These latest Gallup poll numbers only reinforce that contention.
His faithful followers have assured me he is working his behind off already. If he truly is, and his numbers continue to drop in spite of his hard word, then my contention looks better and better, does it not?
July 16th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
18,
“Ya, only a few hundred thousand of us who live in key Western states that swung away from the GOP last year and to Obama, as well as a few hundred thousand in states like AZ that will be battleground states next cycle. But hey, you don’t need us to win elections do you?”
Do you really think there are that many HARDCORE Romney supporters that are anti-huck? From my understanding of the situation, it seems more likely that it is significantly fewer than that…and since Huck’s favorables are higher than romney’s, i’d bet overall the country would be more satisfied with Huck as the nominee. Who needs your ficticious hundreds of thousands? It’s not there any ways. Huck would do way better in a general election. Romney is plastic. The majority of the country doesn’t like plastic candidates. I tend to agree.
If Huck doesn’t run, i’m all in for Pawlenty. If Huck does run….i’ll most likely support him again. I think i just came to that conclusion within the last few days. So count me in as a huckabee supporter “officially”…..or until i change my mind again. One thing for sure, the only way i would support romney, is if he did a tap dance on the head of a pin and won the nomination. HE WILL NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES GET MY VOTE IN THE PRIMARY. Even if he is the only one left, i’ll write in ronald reagan before voting for mitt in a primary. The general is a different story. Any republican is better than obama. Even mitt.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
It was ‘voter’ here and here that insisted that Huckabee was already in near full campaign mode now. No Huckabite contradicted him, so I assumed he was telling the truth.
Was he?
July 16th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Now DanL, you westerners had a chance to vote GOP when Mr. Huckabee was not on the ticket. I can give you AZ, but how is Mr. Huckabee going to doing any worse electorally in the west. You guy have already join the Obamican train when Mr. Huckabbe was out of the picture. You may have reason not to like Mr. Huckabee, but that out-burst sounded like a Western temper tantrum.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Well, another way to look at “favorables”, is even though more people like Huckabee and Palin better than Romney, Romney still wins the question as to whom do you want for President.
I have no problem with that.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
See, I told you so. Sarah Palin’s favorable is high than Mitt Romney. It is not good for Romney.
Romney is not conservative. The Republicans are really attacked about his health plan this week. That why Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. Palin or Pawlenty might be a good choice in 2012. I would like to see Newt Gingrich run for President in 2012. He is a true conservative. I don’t think he will run.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
We really need to break this theme that Huckabe and Palin share supporters. Some of the FPP’s have written about this. Palin is popular with younger and secular GOP voters. Huckabee and Romney tend to receive support from older, more religious voters.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
#26, although he may have a few moderate positions, or held moderate positions in the past, Romney’s agenda has been mostly conservative.
Did you read his 2007-2008 platform?
July 16th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
What this poll says to me is that Pawlenty is obviously next in line. Palin, Huck, and Romney would be smart to disavow any run now and start begging for cabinet posts.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Kris,
Did you see my post at 17.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
MarK,
Your gloating is not attractive. Polls change, political climates change, personal circumstances change. Romney is on top. Good for him. We need to win in 2012. If it is Romney, good for him. The top three each have things to work on. Pawlenty and others will be working their way to the top tier. Its a long way off.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
marK,
“Well, another way to look at “favorables”, is even though more people like Huckabee and Palin better than Romney, Romney still wins the question as to whom do you want for President.”
While no direct conclusion can be drawn from that, what it suggests to me is that (perhaps) Huck and Palin supporters have the other as their number two. It would be interesting to test that theory, and see what happens to the numbers in a head to head with either Romney v. Palin or Romney v Huck. But it looks like Romney is already translating more of his favorables into supporters, which (theoretically) would leave him with less upside. But to his credit, actual supporters mean a whole more than potential supporters.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Kristofer, you are half right in #27. While it is true that Mr. Romney does best among older voters, he does best among middle of the road religious people, not among the most religious people. And while Mr. Huckabee does very well among the most religious people, he does not do best among older voters, he does best among middle aged voters.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Tex,
“MarK,
Your gloating is not attractive. ”
With all do respect (because I do respect your comments here) I do think marK was giving a hard core gloat. I don’t know how much of his stuff you read, but he is not a mindless Rombot cheerleader. It is clear to me that he recognizes that support is very fungible and that 3 years out, there are absolutely no guarantees.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I just did Tommy. Yes and many of the NE GOP voters are secular.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
CORRECTION!
#34 should read, ” I do think marK was *NOT* giving a hard core gloat.”
I hate it when I do that……
July 16th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
“While no direct conclusion can be drawn from that, what it suggests to me is that (perhaps) Huck and Palin supporters have the other as their number two.” Ah yeah, that is what the numbers suggest, but it is too early and we need more data to confirm this. It is funny how all of a sudden, some in the Romney camp do not want a 2 way race regardless of who the other person in the race is.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
OHIO,
I would consider LDS and RCC voters, as religious voters. I know many people do not and although Romney is weak with born again, social conservatives from other faiths did support him in 2008.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Texas, I do not think MarK was gloating, it was a combination of him having fun and giving his opinion.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
support can be “fleeting”, not fungible.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
asparagus,
If it grows spores it can.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
True Kristofer, one does not have to be of a certain faith to be religious, but (unless I am wrong and or you have other polls) it is my understanding that Mr. Romney did best among those who sometimes go to Church as opposed to those who either never go to Church or always go to Church. Yes going to Church is no guarentee how a person feels on Social issues and it there are other factors that determine religiosity, but it is the best indicator that the polling companies give us.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
#37:
I think the Romney people don’t want a 2-way race in the early stages. Against either Huckabee or Palin, Romney is probably going to lose Iowa and South Carolina. After SC, the Romney people should want a two-person race by Super Tuesday, so he can get wins in the delegate rich states like CA, NY, IL, and NJ.
Romney’s best chance (and hope) is for both Huckabee and Palin to siphon votes off from each other, Pawlenty and the rest of the 2nd tier remain in the 2nd tier, and he wins by default.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Jonathan,
I would think that Romney would want a three way race in the winner take all blue states. Seems to me he would be certain of a plurality (good enough) in a three or four way race than a majority in a two way race, where there is the wild card of who the drop-outs support goes to.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
OHIO, you are correct…for the deep south, but outside (and I will look for the link), Romnney outperformed McCain with those voters.
July 16th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
CORRECTION! #44 sould read, ” Seems to me he would be *MORE* certain of a plurality….”
DANG. What is WITH me today?!
July 16th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
OK, if you have regional data than I partially stand corrected Kristofer.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
“Texas.
It was you, wasn’t it, that assured me that Mike is in nearly full campaign mode right now?
If his numbers don’t start improving (at least into the twenties), his TV gig is going to start looking better and better to him. If they continue to drift downward, and he continues to campaign as hard as you say he is, then there really isn’t much point for him to run, is there? He’s getting too old to be satisfied with “moral victories”.
Actually, Matthew and DanL, nowhere in my prediction that Huckabee wouldn’t run did I say anything about him being “hated”. My main thrust was and has always been that he seems to be settling in quite comfortably into his TV gig. That is what is going to convince him that a run for the Presidency is just not worth the hassle. These latest Gallup poll numbers only reinforce that contention.
His faithful followers have assured me he is working his behind off already. If he truly is, and his numbers continue to drop in spite of his hard word, then my contention looks better and better, does it not?
It was ‘voter’ here and here that insisted that Huckabee was already in near full campaign mode now. No Huckabite contradicted him, so I assumed he was telling the truth.
Was he?”
Sounds like gloating to me.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Matthew, of course the latent resentment of Huck isn’t going to show up in the polls. Not unless they poll Western states and with decent sized samples. National polls won’t show anything.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
OHIO,
In Florida, Romney won the anti-choice votersm and the vote by church att.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#FLREP
July 16th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
#1 Ohio Joe – hahaha lol “Yes, it is funny that even after Mrs. Palin resigned, she remain 16 points ahead of Mr. Romney in terms of favorability. This ought to frost them.”
That’s either dishonesty, naivety, or spin. I’ll assume you’re ‘spinning’, and I’ll repeat what I posted on a previous thread:
Some of you are trying to make a lot out of the favorability data, and that’s fine, but lets me a lot more honest about what they tell us.
Palin’s is pretty much what it is, with only 7% with no opinion.
Romney’s and Huckabee’s are different. I’ll just speak to Romney’s but the same can be said of Huckabee’s, in all fairness.
Favorable 56%
Unfavorable 17%
No Opinion 28%
Now, the 28% is the big question mark. If they would split according to those already holding opinions, then Mitt would end up with:
Favorable 77%
Unfavorable 24%
Now, let’s leave 7% with no opinion, we have:
Favorable 73%
Unfavorable 22%
No opinion 7%
That’s almost identical to Sarah Palin. Now let’s take it to an extreme pessimistic for Mitt and assume that Mitt only splits 50% for the remaining 28%; we have:
Favorable 70%
Unfavorable 31%
As you can see, when you honestly look at these numbers, they look pretty darned good for Mitt, and Huckabee too, for that matter.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Ohio, I was wrong about Catholics. McCain won them in most States, not Romney.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Ohio Joe: “Now DanL, you westerners had a chance to vote GOP when Mr. Huckabee was not on the ticket. I can give you AZ, but how is Mr. Huckabee going to doing any worse electorally in the west. You guy have already join the Obamican train when Mr. Huckabbe was out of the picture.”
You sure jumped to some wild and baseless conclusions there. I voted for McCain. I’m sure that lots of Romeny supporters voted for him. The only poster here are Race that I know of who voted for Obama is Knickers.
Also, if you want to keep losing elections, then don’t try to strengthen the GOP turnout in Colorado and Nevada. Whoever the nominee is in 2012, they probably won’t win if they can’t take back those two states. Or if they lose AZ they are in big trouble.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
The same numbers apply to Michigan, although Romney won the Catholics there.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MIREP
July 16th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Huckabee is popular, he would make a good run in 2012, and, I am a Romney supporter, but frankly I like the guy, the only thing that ticked me off is how he hated Romney and he stunk of it, next time he runs he better learn to be more of a christian or I will be ticked off once again, but I will definately vote for him in a general at this point.
Palin is very polarizing, I’d prefer that we nominate her based on what she knows, not how popular she is. Why act like the democratic party? She may be smart and have good policies, but she needs to communicate it better next time around.
I think Gingrich pulls away Romney supporters, if he runs, I think it hurts Romney, although I would love it if he ran so that he can set an intelligent tone to the debates and focus people on what matters the most.
Romney, despite the economic slide, is still 2nd fiddle to Palin when it comes to popularity. It’s hard to say where the road goes from here. I have a hard time believing Palin could win the nomination if she ran next cycle. I think Romney would win over more independants in a general. Maybe I’m just wishful thinking, though.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
#53, we have a lot of people on this site who voted for Obama. Just because they attack Palin, Romney or Huckabee, does not mean they support another GOP candidate, even if they say they do.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
#55, I might tend to agree with you regarding Gingrich and Romney supporters, but I wish the pollsters would break down Gingrich voters better.
As for Huckabee; I cannot statte this enough. Even though he leads in some of the polls, the $ people in the party are completely against him and I cannot see Huckabee sustaining a lengthy campaign, unless the field as 4 strong candidates (impossible, I think).
Although we have no idea what the State schedule will look like after S.C., Huckabee cannot have a repeat of 2008, where he pulled out of Florida because he had no $.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
#43 Jonathan – you’re a pretty astute observer!
July 16th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
56. Really, who? Hard for me to believe a lot of people here at RACE voted for Obama.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
59. very easy for us to find out, believe me. Ask anyone who uses WordPress.
July 16th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Knickers voted for Obama, I think.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
MWS, yes she did as a protest vote against the selection of Palin. In Utah.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
#62, she could at least had the smarts of Aron and voted absentee for McCain.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
#57.Kris:“As for Huckabee; I cannot statte this enough. Even though he leads in some of the polls, the $ people in the party are completely against him and I cannot see Huckabee sustaining a lengthy campaign…”
What about his network of Evangelical churches that did a great of heavy lifting for him entirely for free during the 2008 campaign? Are they still his for 2012?
July 16th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
#64, they probably would be, but;
even if they remain with him, they can not bring him victory in NH, MI and NV and most of the super-Tuesday States. Huckabee did not carry S.C. and M.O. in 2008.
As well, remember, there are half the number of Evangelicals then Catholics.
July 16th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
#65.
I can’t help but wonder at that. In 2008, it was a novelty to have an openly Evangelical candidate spouting scripture who had a decent chance of winning. I suspect the novelty has worn off somewhat. There is also the factor that Huckabee is now more fully fleshed out as a person rather than just a symbol. A certain percentage of people that last year saw Mike as Huckabee the Evangelical preacher turned Presidential candidate are going to see him now as Huckabee the person instead.
To what extent the above is true, I haven’t the foggiest idea, nor would I hazard a guess. Nor could I quantify the effect. However, I suspect more than a few of the avid Huckabee volunteers from last year will be rather less enthusiastic this next time around.
Palin still is very much a symbol, so she will easily draw eager volunteers. Romney never was that much of a symbol. I suspect most people volunteering for Mitt last year will be there again in 2012. It remains to be seen how many enthusiastic volunteers Pawlenty will be able to attract.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Kristofer, Hannity and Foxnews were the ones who told the country that Huckabee pulled out of Florida. Huckabee never did. He just did not have enough money to run ads there. But he was still making campaign stops and meeting with voters. It was shameful and unAmerican that Hannity and Foxnews did this.
July 16th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Don’t worry Texas, Hannity is making up for it by having Huck on his show all the time.
July 16th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
It’s exactly this same ‘anybody but Romney’ that cost us the last election. Everything Obama is doing could have been prevented….what a absolute shame.. There is a saying, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me!”…. we need to make sure we never make this kind of mistake again. It is absolutely killing us right now.
July 16th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
#67, sorry, you are correct, he stopped funding his FLA campaign.
July 16th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
“It’s exactly this same ‘anybody but Romney’ that cost us the last election.” Mr. Romney still has the highest negatives of all major Republicans and if Mr. Romney had to go through the same negative lies and trumped up charges that Mrs. Palin has had to go through, his negatives among Independent and Democrats would also be high. Instead of telling lies that Mrs. Palin is going start a third party, the Romney camp would do well to worry about themselves.
July 16th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
71 – Romney had and still has to deal with his fair share of lies, such as that he supported gay marriage or that he wanted to surrender in Iraq, or that his Massachusetts health care plan (which I admit has some problems) is the same as “socialized medicine.”
July 16th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Ohio,
enough of this BS about Romney camp spreading lies about Palin going third party. It simply isnt true. its internet chatroom fodder!
bottom line from 2008 is that had Romney been part of the ticket when the economy went bonkers then we would have had a very strong and knowledgeable voice who would have made a difference. Whether it would have been enough or not I cannot tell, but I can say that CO (whre I live), NV, NM, MI would have all been more tight contests than they were and some would have for sure swung GOP way.
As for Palin I like the lady, she has flair. She needs to find a way to appeal to those indies and moderate Dems if she has any hope of winning the white House back in 2012 if she is our nominee. If she fails at that then it would be shear idiocy if she were our nominee. I for one hope she can bridge the gap, we will see.
July 16th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
ohio one other thing not to nitpick, but your comment on the highest unfavorables is based on GOP or GOP leaning Respondents. Of All Americans, Huckabees is the lowest at 23, followed by Romney at 29, followed by Palin at 45. Of all americans Palin is the only when who has a negative favorability rating of -2. Hucks is +19 , Romneys is +8.
With these numbers I cant see how Huckabee doesnt at least try to make a run in 2012. He may be regional but he may be in the process of expanding that region
July 16th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
#71, are you being honest OJ.. His negatives are lowest at 17%
His favorables are lower only because the undecided is high! Split those under any reasonable methodoligy, and he is in the 70′s. Did you not see that break down I gave on two other threads? That wasn’t spin, that’s the way it is.
July 16th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Sorry, lower than Palin’s; Huckabee is 16, MItt at 17%.
July 16th, 2009 at 11:21 pm
I would be curious to see someone speculate on a post which candidate would win what states if the primaries (in each 50 states) were held today. I would see it like this.
IA- Palin
SC- Palin
NH- Romney
Northeastern states- Romney
Southern states except FL and GA- Huck
FL and GA- toss up
TX- toss up
UT and every state it touches- Romney
CA- Romney
OR, WA, MT, and other western states- toss up
AK- Palin
Midwest- ?
Romney seems stronger in the west (UT, Mormons, won many in 08), the northeast (MA, NH, etc), and would seem to play well in many other regions. He is in the drivers seat I think.
July 17th, 2009 at 4:16 am
“Sorry, lower than Palin’s; Huckabee is 16, MItt at 17%.” Yeah, if you can magically claim that 50% of Americans who are neutral on Mr. Romey automatically get added to his favorables (and you claim that it is the worst case scenario to boot)than it is no wild stretch to claim that at least 4 for every 28 Republicans that are neutral on Mr. Romney will easily slide into the negative camp. You are not the only guy who can play with numbers. And sorry, I do think it is partly (not completely) spin with regards to how you play with the negatives. So if that is the way it is going to be, I’ll do my own spin in the meantime.
July 17th, 2009 at 6:20 am
Ohio – It’s not spin. Tommy Boy is good with numbers…call him in on this for his opinion on how these people will split. He’s a strong Palin fan, but normally pretty honest on these things.
July 17th, 2009 at 6:39 am
Alright Illinoisguy, I’ll e-mail him in a little bit.
July 17th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Uh, what did he say?
July 17th, 2009 at 10:27 am
First, Illinoisguy, he has not responded; second, when he does respond to me, it is his business, not mine or yours whether he wants his answer public, but when he responds I can ask him if I can post his answer here. It is quite early in the morning there so I am not surprised that he has not responded yet.
July 17th, 2009 at 11:35 am
#78-79-80-81-82
Aren’t you guys getting a little snippy for a poll that is three and a half years away (almost) from election day?
This is ALL speculation at this point. We do not KNOW who is running. If the respective Republican Candidate camps can’t be friendly with each other this far out, it’s going to be a long, long three and half years…
Passion for a candidate/cause/policy is great, but don’t let it get in the way of the big goal, which is to keep America true to her roots of small government and individual responsibility/freedom.
July 17th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Alright, sorry ogrepete, I guess this is small stuff in the long run.