Governor Huckabee recently suggested that Japan’s only military defense capability to repell a North Korean attack, was for Japan to; “toss sushi at them”.  This statement was not necessarily true.  In fact, the Japanese boast one of the largest and most advanced navies in the world, an army of almost 150,000 personnel and an air force equipped with the most advanced 4th generation fighters and transport aircraft.       

In direct comparison to NATO forces, Japan has one of the most technologically savvy military forces in the world, but they lack many offensive armaments to destroy North Korean targets. For deterrence, Japan continues to rely on the umbrella provided by US military strike capability from sea, land and air.  Unfortunately for Japan, the US is busy fighting two conventional wars and recently elected a President that seems unwilling to protect American and Japanese interest in East Asia. 

The Japanese military has been acquiring manufacturing licenses to build US equipment for nearly three decades. F-4′s,  F-15′s, F-16′s (F-2), AH-1′s, Ch-47′s and UH-60′s are some of US military armament found in the JSDF, most of which are equipped with the most advanced Japanese avionics.  Aside from a hand-full of Mig-29′s, the Korean People’s Air force (North Korean Air Force) remains at a significant technological and performance disadvantage against the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.  The North Korean regime has attempted to compensate for this disadvantage by building up a numerical superiority to the Japanese, but the lack of sophisticated and modern training methods, poor manufacturing quality and a short supply of parts and fuel has left the NorthKorean Air Force incapable of sustaining a lengthy air campaign against Japan and South Korea. 

Even with this air superiority, the JSDF lacks sufficient air to ground capability to eliminate North Korean missile silos and radar installations.  In their inventory, the JSDF possesses one 3rd and one 4th generation ASM missile designed for ship-born operations, but Japan’s political leadership has refused to modify their 60 year policy of not developing and acquiring ASM armaments for land-based targets.  This strategic error has left the Japanese government with only one solution to deter the nuclear threat from North Korean.  Develop their own nuclear arsenal and warhead delivery capabilities. 

Many liberal foreign policy experts and former State department officials such as Nicholas Burns and Bill Richardson, have suggested that the threat of a Japanese nuclear weapons program will force the Chinese and Russians to finally deal with the North Korean nuclear threat, but they have made these assumptions based on non-interventionist theory rather than on any practical evidence.  They fail to understand that Beijing and Moscow do not want an peaceful and democratic North Korea.  The prospect of a border nation, economically and politically imploding, threatens their own national security.  These two world powers would face an influx of millions of refugees to their cities and towns located in the Korean peninsula. 

These liberal experts and State department officials were incorrect when they believed the oil for disarmament program would succeed and the six-party talks would lead to a more peaceful region.  These failures have left the Japanese with no other choice but to consider a nuclear alternative to protect their geographic and economic interests.  Do not expect this to resolve the crisis, but instead to inflame the tension and anxiety in the region and push the communist north to accelerate their WMD programs, cyber terrorism and threats of wars.  

What the Chinese and Russian governments understand, yet many current and former State department officials mislead the American public on, is that Japan is already considered a para-nuclear State.  The Japanese possess a massive stockpile of reprocessed plutonium from its domestic nuclear power program.  Unlike the Iranians, Pakistanis and North Koreans, Japan can initiate a weapons programs and produce its first bomb before the IAEA, Chinese intelligence and media discover the change in defense policy. 

With the lack of interest in Korean affairs displayed by President Obama and with the failure of successive administrations to put an end to the North Korean nuclear weapons and LRM programs, one might wonder if the Japanese are reconsidering their policy.  One might also wonder if they have not already made the decision to start the program.

What we do not know, is the impact of the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the Japanese government and its people, as they face this crisis?  Does the impending threat of a nuclear launch capable North Korea and a US policy of inaction make the Japanese more likely to enter the MAD (mutual assured destruction) tango, or will they continue oppose the expansion of nuclear armed countries?   

I could you tell you that only time will tell, but it appears as if time has run out for our Japanese friends.   

Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.