Whither the Republican Party in 2012? Who will be our nominee? Here are how the various candidates stack-up at the moment.
NOT RUNNING (no particular order):
Newt Gingrich. Here is a man who every four years threatens to run but never does. This not hard to understand. Anybody who wants to remain relevant on the national scene never says they are not running. The moment they do, the phones stop ringing, the invitations dry up, their opinions and insights are no longer of interest to anybody. They are officially has-beens.
Bobby Jindal. He has stated he’s not running. He is focusing on his job in LA at the moment, and is working towards his 2011 re-election run. That gives him precious little time to mount a Presidential Campaign for 2012.
Sarah Palin. This smart lady is not done with politics — not by a long shot. She is, however, done with political office. It takes too much time and effort, resources she wants to spend on causes she really believes in. (One of those causes happens to be a small boy named Trig who really needs his mother right now.) She has made a carefully thought-out decision to set her life upon a different course. She is one brave lady. I wish her well.
Mike Huckabee. I thought long and hard before putting Mike here. A few months ago I would have said, “Of course he is running”. I can’t say that anymore. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable with his TV show. It is certainly a popular one. More and more Fox affiliates pick it up. Now a successful media spot does not necessarily preclude a Presidential Run. Ronald Reagan had a long time radio show, too, but it always seemed a means to an end for him – a temporary post on his way up. Huckabee, on the other hand, seems to be really thriving there. It’s his baby. Will he give it up for the long hours, the hotels, the airports, the building up and running the campaign organization, the countless hands to shake of people you’ve never met and never will again, the constant scrutiny by unfriendly eyes waiting for the least little slip to use against you, the never-ending strategy meetings, and the endless rounds of banquet dinners that all taste the same? He has been there, done that. If he is smart, he won’t go back if he has something better; and he is, and he does.
Jeb Bush. It pains me to put him here. He is far more competent than either his father or his brother. Unfortunately, the cold, hard fact is that it is simply too early after his brother’s tenure for another Bush to top the ticket. Nobody ever said life was fair. The best he could hope for in 2012 is a tap for VP, and that is iffy at best. Instead, it looks like he is going to have to wait at least until 2016 to enter on the national scene.
MAY RUN (no particular order):
Haley Barbour. Obama is building up Washington as a pace not seen since WWII. Haley, the ultimate Washington insider, seems ill-equipped to offer a compelling alternative. He seems more of a behind-the-scenes sort of guy. But you never know.
Charlie Crist. He is favored to win the Florida Senate seat in 2010. If he loses, he won’t run. If he wins and wants to make a run for the Presidency, he would basically have to start running immediately. Obama got away with it in 2008. One, Crist is no Obama. And two, if the country is turning against Obama, they will be disinclined to make that mistake again. Being a successful Governor will help alleviate some of those fears, but will it be enough? It might be if he makes it to the General, but I suspect the Republicans will not be in a hurry to choose another maverick as their nominee.
WILL RUN:
Tim Pawlenty. He is making all the moves for a run, including a trial shot at RomneyCare this past week, and why not? Win or lose, a run in 2012 makes excellent sense for him. Even if he doesn’t get the nomination, a respectable 2012 run would lay a good foundation for a 2016 or 2020 run. He will be a relatively young 52 in 2012, after all.
On the plus side, he has good conservative credentials – not perfect, but close enough. They are certainly better than Crist’s. His recent maneuver where he out-foxed the Democrats into allowing him unilateral control over the budget will stand him in good stead with the base, and with a public tiring of Obama-nomics. What works the most against him, however, is the fact that Republicans are philosophically opposed to nominating a newbie. Their instincts are to go with the familiar, the tried and tested. And let’s face it, Pawlenty is not exactly a house-hold name with your average voter. The upside is that at the bare minimum, a good run in 2012 will allow him to check that box off for future Presidential cycles.
Mitt Romney. America, it is said, nearly always picks the opposite from their last selection. Obama was inexperienced at leading. Mitt has lead his whole life. Obama knew nothing about the economy. Mitt has been working with the America’s economic engine his entire career. Obama had never proved his competence at anything. Romney has proven his competence again and again. Obama is making a mess of things. Mitt has built a reputation as Mr. Fixit. If Obama continues to make a hash of the economy, foreign policy, and domestic affairs (ala Jimmy Carter), the situation will cry out for someone like Mitt Romney.
Couple that with the GOP tendency to nominate the next in line, and you have Mitt Romney as the 2012 frontrunner. The other two contenders for that honor from 2008 either have or will decide to pursue other options. Mitt’s ability to organize is legendary, and his fund raising talents surpass all others save Sarah Palin — and she’s not running. His squeaky clean image, which was derided in 2008, now looks quite appealing in light of recent scandals. Nobody, but nobody would ever tag Mitt Romney as likely to sneak off to Argentina to be with his mistress. Mitt now seems the “safe” choice. Republicans like that.
The Lowe-Down Bottom line: The 2012 nomination is Mitt’s to lose at the present time.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:56 am
when do these folks have to decide to jump in by?
July 10th, 2009 at 11:58 am
No major problems here, but I think Huck definitely belongs in the “may run” group. It seems clear to me that he is keeping his options open.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
I think you should have put Huckabee in the maybe category. Because Huckabee always tells his supporters what he is doing. And he said he honestly did not know. When we were hoping that he would be chosen for VP, he told his supporters that he was not being vetted, and he was not. So we take Huckabee at his word.
You are right though, Huckabee is smart and he is definitely enjoying what he is doing. But Huckabee is a long term planner and seems to always have a game plan. I don’t think that money and success will deter him. Especially since he had no money before and after he ran in 2008. He would be fine to have no money again.
But he is going to wait to make his decision. He will not be the first one to jump into the race. I think that will be Romney who is the first to jump in. Huckabee will wait to see what the primary environment looks like and if he sees an opening for himself. If he feels that he has any kind of shot, he will jump into the race. And he will use his tv show to set up his big announcement.
So I think Huckabee should be a maybe, because he has never said that he is a “no.” If he does start to say no, then he will be a definite no. Unlike some other politicians who have said no and will be a yes.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
As I said, I really, really had to think long and hard about where to place Huck. He IS keeping his options very open. I suspect he, himself doesn’t know what he is doing, but in the end I think he will decide against running. And so that is where I placed him.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
when should these folks be making the jumping in the election race official announcements with the balloons ect? reason I ask is I truly believe obama is already in full 2012 campaign mode.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
greg,
There are really two cut-off dates. The first is Groundhog’s day, the year before the election. If someone hasn’t at least announced an exploratory committee by then, it is unlikely they will run.
The second cut-off date is the second debate. People get used to thinking of a certain group of people as the field for the campaign. If a candidate waits too long before entering, people will not think of him as part of the field.
These are not hard and fast dates. There will always be exceptions. But they make good rules of thumb.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
If Palin and Huckabee don’t run that leaves a lot of room for a candidate for the primary voters who will be apathetic and bored by Romney.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
MarK,
We’ve talked about this before but I suspect most conservatives, independents, or even Democrats would not say Mitt Romney represents the opposite of Barack Obama.
In fact, I heard Kevin Madden talking the other day about their similarities.
The question I’ve asked before is: if you asked a random guy on the street who was more similar to Barack Obama between Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, I think you’d get a 9-to-1 ratio of Mitt answers than Palin answers.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Wow. All I have to say is I hope 2012′s primary isn’t as bruising and divisive as the great Frist vs. Allen fight last year. But I understand the need to plan early… Madame President Hillary is going to be tough to beat.
Bottom line.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
The only disagreement I have is that I think Mr. Huckabee will run. I am not going to guess how many delegates he will win or his chances of winning until the cookie crumbles further, but my guess is that he is running. Whether I like it or not, at this point of the game, I would agree with you on all your other assessments as to who is running and who is not.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I just pray that the candidates don’t wait as long as mccain did for his official jump in the election announcement thats what i hope ! because remember no primary for obama so he will have a lot of time on his hands with campaign advisers!
July 10th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Charlie Crist belongs in not running. You can’t start a new job in January 2011 then announce a prez campaign a couple weeks later.
I think Palin should be in may run. She’s proven herself to defy any kind of behavioral prediction. Huckabee I’d put at about 50-50. Among Republican voters, both are consistently tied with Romney for the lead and probably won’t pass lightly.
Even Romney I could see dissuaed by how the approval for Obama tracks. It’s difficult to forecast it two years out- and we basically have two year campaigns now- but all else equal, the incumbent has the equivalent of home field advantage against a challenger. They usually win but can be beat. It’s a worse bet than running in an open.
It’s a gamble that Mario Cuomo lost in 1992 but I can’t fault him for betting that way. From the vantage point of when he made his decision, the more likely scenario if he’d won the nomination in 1992 is that he loses to HW, and then another Democrat has an easier race against Dole or Quayle in 96. Of course, the more likely scenario didn’t materialize. Bill Clinton made a smart bet as well since he may have needed a weak field to win a nomination at any point. Even with an easier open election, passing on the 1992 race to face a tougher primary in 1996 wouldn’t have made much sense.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Finally, some real analysis. I agree 100% in your entire analysis. Which is rare around here. Except you left one thing out, Pawlenty will run but may end up with the VP slot therefore
Romney/Pawlenty 2012.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
I think Huckabee should have been put into the middle category as well. I don’t think he can win the nomination, but I do think he may give it another try.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
#13.Thunder,
You are right. I should have put that in there. A VP tap is a definite possibility for Pawlenty in 2012. In fact, in most of my early drafts, I did mention it. In the final editing, it got inadvertently left on the cutting room floor, unfortunately.
It all adds up to no downside whatsoever for Pawlenty to run in 2012 — that is unless he bombs big time. I don’t see that happening, though.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
As much as I dislike the way Huckabee zeroed in on Mitt, and continued to do so even after Mitt was out, and spearheaded the movement telling McCain to not pick Mitt as VP; in spite of all of that, I think Mitt/Mike gives us the most votes in a general. I just don’t see Pawlenty generating a lot of enthusiasm.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
marK, I sure hope that your prediction is correct. I would be very happy if it were a race between Romney and Pawlenty.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
I agree with you mostly, but I do think you’re a bit too certain that Palin’s not running. I’d love her to not run, as my choice between her and Romney would be a tough one for me to make (ultimately I’m sure I’ll go Romney either way). But I definitely think her and Huckabee are possible, but not necessary, runs.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
I could see that, assuming Mike takes it. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Mike would instantly get the evangeilcals on board (although Pawlenty could also do that, but not as much as mike). It would also solve Huckabee’s problem with the Mormons. They would then be willing to vote for him in a future race and it would put him in position to win the nomination in the future.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
It is just too early to tell. Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. If Palin doesn’t run, Gov. Tom Pawlenty of Minnesota might be a good choice. Romney is like a ‘liberal’ Democrat and he isn’t conservative. Romney lie about the issues what he stand like the health care, for example.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
“It would also solve Huckabee’s problem with the Mormons. They would then be willing to vote for him in a future race and it would put him in position to win the nomination in the future.”
Not with this one. That would be the single biggest failure in judgment that Romney could make. I would not vote for Romney if he did that.
July 10th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
If Governor Huckabee doesn’t run, than Haley Barbour will. Barbour is a great strategist; he knows the importance of the South Carolina primray. Without Huckabee, there is no other Southern in the race. Barbour could easily step into that role.
Also, the public may be tiring of Obama and the Dem’s failure to do, pretty much anything, but that could make Barbour’s D.C. connections look better. He could say “I don’t live in Washington, but I know how to get things done in Washington.”
July 10th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
At this point, I am not excluding any possible VP for Mitt. I will say, however, that Mike Huckabee has some serious baggage in the way of that. His book alone contains page after page after page of Mitt slams. And his anti-Mitt speaches and interviews long after the contest was over will be prime fodder for the Democrats.
And that isn’t even mentioning his tendency to make embarrassing gaffes. Can you imagine the GOP VP candidate making a crack like the one Huck made at the NRA convention?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Am I the only one on this site who believes Sarah resigned for 2 reasons…to make some money and raise some money for her national ambitions. There is no way she is not running for President in 2012 or the very least seriously considering it!!! It all makes sense. Yeah she just resigned because she couldn’t handle the pressure…yeah right…that’s it. I guess you can argue that she wanted to strike while the iron is still hot. But what will continue the flame on that iron? A presidential run is what. She now has time to write her book and formulate her position on the issues and how she intends to fix the problems the nation faces. She has time to travel the lower 48 during her book tour and on speaking tours. She is definitely in. She cannot afford not to be. I actually predict Romney will not run because he will not want to gamble his family fortune on the possibility of losing another primary.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
jersey, I think it is most likely that she is running.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
marK,
I didn’t realize you are Mark!
Glad to see you posting on the front page. Excellent run down.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Jonathan, there is no doubt that if Mr. Huckabee does not run, there will be a vacuum especially in the south, but I do not see Mr. Barbour filling that space.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
#24.Jersey,
Nowhere have I said she couldn’t handle the pressure. People might accuse her of that (and they have), but I haven’t.
Are you saying that she can’t just work outside of elective office to accomplish what she wants? She has to run for President? Why?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
“marK,
I didn’t realize you are Mark!”
Haha, to paraphase the guy who was banned from this site ‘WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN MWS?’ Sorry, I could not resist.
Haha, it is rich DanL that you and I disagree for different reason.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
DanL and Mark – My assumption on the vp thing is that Huckabee would step forward and admit that he shouldn’t have played the religion card as he did. He would need to make amends…and I’m only talking purely in terms of getting votes. Don’t get me wrong; I haven’t forgiven him, but I could under the right circumstances if he seemed sincere.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Ohio,
“WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN MWS?’”
Wednesday through Tuesday I have my head up my keester.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
#27:
There will have to be either a Southern candidate or a candidate who has a lot of appeal for Southern voters. Barbour can certainly appeal to his fellow Southerners much more so than Romney or Pawlenty.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
The chances that Huck, Palin, and Newt all stay out are absolutely zero. The absence of two of the three would prompt the third to run.
Gingrich is in for 2012, anyhow. The decision has already been made. Bank on it and remember at which site you heard it first.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
“(and they have), but I haven’t.” To be fair, you are correct MarK, while I wish she would have stayed in politics officially, I am accepting the fact that she might just contribute from the sidelines. I know, many of my fellow Palinites are slowing thinking that there is hope again, my hope is there, but still slim.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
I read a article about the supporters of Mitt Romney are still attacked Sarah Palin now since she is resign as the Governor of Alaska on July 26. They can’t stand Sarah Palin. This is their problem. I think it is most likely that Palin is running. Palin is a very true conservative. Romney is no conservative and he is hurting the Republican Party. That why I won’t vote for Romney in 2012.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
#30.IlliniDude,
If Mitt tapped Mike for VP, I wouldn’t give Mike’s Mormon problem a second thought. My main concern is and would still be Huck’s remarkable propensity of making gaffes at the most inopportune time.
Oh, and MWS.26. Thanks for the compliment. Since you are not inclined to waste theme, that means a lot.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Tommy Boy:
How in the world is Mitt Romney similar to President Obama?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Well, Jonathan, I am not from the South (you are, but some Southerners do not include Florida in the South) and I realize that Mr. Pawlenty just does not fit the bill as a true Southerner any more than a Southerner could pass for a true Ohioan, but do you really think that Mr. Barbour is the man, even though he has the accent?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Lkv,
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/06/mitt_romney_is_writing_a.php
It’s not just that too but his people seem to be somewhat embracing the similarities.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
#34:
I could see Palin following a Newt Gingrich like path. The former Speaker is a very influential ideas man without actually being in office. Governor Palin could try doing the same thing as a spokesman (or spokeswoman as the case is) for conservative values and ideas. That doesn’t mean she won’t run in the future (Senate in 2014 or President in 2016, 2020 or 2024), but she just might be taking a sabbitcal from public-office.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
#35.anon:“I read a article about the supporters of Mitt Romney are still attacked Sarah Palin”
And you just accepted it at face value? Oh, I am certain that there are Romney supporters that still attack Sarah, as well as Huckabee supporters, and McCain supporters, and Pawlenty supporters and… . Somewhere, some place there is a supporter of somebody who is still attacking Sarah.
But why is it so important for you to focus upon Romney supporters?
July 10th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
#38:
In the part of Florida I’m from, it is people like Romney, and Pawlenty who have the accents, Barbour talks just fine
.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
“Pals Around With Terrorists”: Palin Wasn’t That Rogue, After All
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/07/pals_around_with_terrorists_palin_wasnt_rogue_after_all.php
July 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
#40.Jonathan,
I envision her taking a Newt-like path, as well.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Those 2 phrase seem funny together…uncertainity followed by certainity.
This will always come down to the people involved in the comparison. I think you are right in your assessment, however it reflects negatively on Sarah. i.e. the reasons why they think Sarah is more different than Obama than Romney.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
#42.Jonathan.
LOL
July 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
41 – duh, because Romney is a “liberal Democrat” and is “hurting the Republican party” unlike Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty who are “true conservatives.”
July 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Thanks Jonathan, she is still young by political standards.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
BJWitts,
It reflects negatively on Sarah right now but will it in 2012? Obama and his style are relatively popular now (according to gallup, he’s equal to George W. Bush at this time in 2001) but she’s hoping that Americans tire of Obama’s policies, personality, and style by 2012.
If they do tire of the things that I have cited, the hope is that they would turn to someone they could consider completely different from Obama and the person that fits the bill of all the candidates mentioned is probably Palin.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
The source of my authority regarding Obama’s polling compared to George W. Bush at this time in 2001.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121553/Obama-Job-Approval-Drifts-Down-58-So-Far-July.aspx
From a historical perspective, Obama’s current July rating is not exceptional. It is roughly the same as the rating of George W. Bush in early July of his first year, although well above that of Bill Clinton in July 1993 (Clinton had by far the worst ratings in the summer of his first year of all presidents elected to their first terms since Eisenhower). Other presidents from 1952 on enjoyed higher ratings in July of their initial years in office than has been the case for the last three presidents, the one exception being Richard Nixon, whose 58% reading in mid-July 1969 is identical to where Obama is now. Thus, Obama’s current approval rating is above-average only in comparison to Clinton at the same point in time. It is essentially on par with where Bush and Nixon were, but at least slightly worse than all other presidents (with the exception of Clinton). In particular, Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, and George H.W. Bush all had significantly higher ratings in the summer of their first year than does Obama at this point.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
49 – In such a case, one way she would be closer than Romney to Obama in a negative way in the public’s eyes would be her limited executive experience. She would also be closer to Obama in that her popularity is more from her personality than her policies. Most people don’t know her positions on all of the major issues. You’d get a big question mark when it comes to border security, illegal immigration, aspects of foreign policy, etc.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
BTW, I am not making fun Jonathan, Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Romney do certainly have accents of their own, I was just questioning whether Southerners can truly identify with Mr. Barbour, despite the fact that he does not have a northern accent if you like the term. I am still working on my Ohio accent (Ohiya accent in my part of the state.)
July 10th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Tommy Boy, with respect we can make comparisons about how various candidates are similar to Mr. Obama in some aspect and we can make similarities between Mr. Bush and Mrs. Clinton and so forth, but apart from entertainment value, there is little purpose to such contests. The bottom line is that all GOP candidates are Conservative to one degree or another and Mr. Obama is not.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
anonymous:
Yes it is true that Romneyite, Huckabeeites and so forth did trash Mrs. Palin, but if you think that Mr. Romney is directly responsible for sabotaging her carreer, you are crazy as bedbugs and as crazy as the anti-Palinite extremists.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
#52:
I was merely joshin ya. Governor Barbour can certainly relate to Southerners, although Romney and Pawlenty can if they work at it. The key for polticians from the North when campaigning in the South is to talk to Southerners, not down to them. Nothing is less electable in the Old South then coming across as a snobby, I-know-better-then-you-dumb-rednecks, Yankee.
If you look at the 08 races and where Romney got his votes in the South, it was mostly in areas that are populated with people who aren’t old-time Southerners, metro areas if you will. He did well in the Jacksonville area and South Florida, Atlanta and its suburbs, and in the Mobile area in Alabama. That is a good start, but he will have to do better in the more rural areas or places where there aren’t as many transplants from the North. That would be a lot harder with a genuine Southerner in the race.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
#51, and now she’ll have plenty of time to fill in those blanks. She’ll be on the cusp of the media and it’s whimsical way of controlling the debate in Washington. She’ll no longer have to waste her, and the state of Alaska’s, precious time defending herself against bogus ethics complaints. After her book tour, and probably before, she’ll be the keynote guest speaker at dozens of events and campaign rallies. I assume she’ll support a blue dog democrat or two to keep up her maverick, renegade image and in the process she will propel herself to the Republican Nomination, hopefully just as the nation has totally soured on Obama and his gangland, Chicago style, leftist politics.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I would put newt, huck, palin and romney all in the maybe category…out of those only romney and huck have shot to actually win it but they won’t reveal their hand till spring/summer of 2011.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
51. I agree with you.
Palin and Obama: Both chosen for their identity, both unqualified, both rock star types who rely almost solely on persona, and neither are not too great unscripted.
One difference besides ideology is, of course, educational background as Tommy would note, and the fact that Obama has a definite agenda, while Palin just appears to be happy in the spotlight.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
56 – but that also means she’ll have to choose sides on the issues. She’ll no longer have both border hawks and amnesty proponents think she’s on their side, for instance. That’s not necessarily going to translate into increased popularity.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
#28 – marK, I believe she finds herself in a very unique position. Without the belief that she may run for President, her real estate will drop. It is easier for her to fall into oblivion than it is for a Romney or a Gingrich. She is a rock star and like many stars their light can sometimes fade. She needs to run for President to show how viable her beliefs and her brand of conservatism is. Otherwise she may run the risk of being another Dan Quayle, et al. She has to prove that she understands national politics for her paychecks and influence to supercede her stardom…to validate the light from the star.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Mark, good analysis. I can’t help but think both Huck and Palin are running, though. It’s in their blood. I think Huck enjoys his show and the money, but he also loves the heck out of the attention a campaign brings. What does he have to lose? He can do another show.
Palin is more likely to run than not. She has too large a base, and also loves the spotlight.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Oh, and as to the Lowe-Down (I like the title), I agree with your assessment other than I would put Huck, Newt and Sarah in the “maybe” category. I’ve decided Palin deserves the benefit of the doubt that she was totally honest in her reasons for resigning but there’s always the chance she wasn’t and it might be part of some grand scheme for 2012 as some of her supporters seem convinced.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
61 – I don’t think the spotlight turned out to be all it was cracked up to be for her.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
#8 “The question I’ve asked before is: if you asked a random guy on the street who was more similar to Barack Obama between Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, I think you’d get a 9-to-1 ratio of Mitt answers than Palin answers.”
The general consensus out there is that Palin is in the “less-experienced” catagory, which is where Obama is. They both have that in common. Krauthammer had it right: http://thecompetentconservative.com/2009/07/02/krauthammer-says-romney-really-is-the-frontrunner/
July 10th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
#60.Jersey:“Without the belief that she may run for President, her real estate will drop.”
Absolutely true. However, please take note of what I had to say about Newt Gingrich. It applies to them all.
Nobody, including Newt, is lying when they refuse to rule out a Presidential run. But there are people that will work their tails off against impossible odds trying to get the nomination, and people who won’t lift a finger to obtain it but will take it if it is handed to them on a silver platter, and everywhere in between. Each and everyone of them can claim they are not ruling out a Presidential run and be 100% honest about it.
The question always comes down to how much effort a potential candidate is willing to put forth. Newt, for example, has never once created an exploratory committee that I remember. That is an absolutely essential first step in running, and he’s never done it. Yet every four years like clockwork there he is talking up a potential run.
Sarah is going to concentrate on the causes that mean the most to her. Running for President just might not be one of them.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
“It’s not just that too but his people seem to be somewhat embracing the similarities.”
Tommy Boy, I see them as opposites. I see no similarities at all.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Yep. I don’t think Huck will run either. He’s not exactly a workhorse and he’s looking very comfortable where he is. Who said people are getting apathetic towards Romney? The more intense Obama’s painful recession gets, the greater the enthusiasm for the fix-it man. I’m already wishing for relief.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Liz,
“(Huck’s) not exactly a workhorse.”
What? Where does THAT come from? You don’t go from dirt poor to almost Republican nominee by being lazy. You don’t lose a three thousand pounds and run marathons because you’re lazy.
Is this because he’s Southern?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
#68 – Isn’t he getting fat again?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Mitt Romney is like Barack Obama? Oh yeah. I see it. Not. Well, I guess they’re both descendants of polygamists, they’re both family men, one likes to smoke and dabble in drugs, one drinks Vanilla Coke, shoot, they even look alike – tall, dark, neatly combed hair. Stunning really.
Sarah Palin is like Obama? This is a fabulous exercise in creativity. They both like skirts?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
MWS no, you lose 300 pounds because you get your stomach stapled. I’ll give you the marathons, even with frequent rest throughout, they’re not easy.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I’m a supporter of Mitt and a supporter of Palin. So much for #35 theory of sweeping generalizations. And if Mitt tapped Mike for VP, that would go to the issue of competence and would cause me to reassess Mitt. I fully expect him to put together a top notch team from the get-go. Matter of fact, I suspect that team already exists in its entirety on paper somewhere.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
“Sarah Palin is like Obama? This is a fabulous exercise in creativity. They both like skirts?” Haha, I like that one. Who knows, maybe Mr. Obama will wear a kilt.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
I’m not sure who would be best for vp. I’ve mentioned DeMint, but several on here do not like that. Pawlenty wouldn’t be bad. I’m open for suggestions!
July 10th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Liz,
“I’ll give you the marathons”
And the part about going from dirt poor to almost Republican nominee for President?
July 10th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
You know what would have really, really been funny is if the 16 year old would have seen him staring at her butt and slapped the crap out of him. That would have been the best youtuve ever for me.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Illinois,
In the live video, it’s not so obvious he is ogling her. Still photos can be deceptive. It looks like it caught him mid motion, not staring.
July 10th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
live video is here:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/07/when-in-rome.html
July 10th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
MWS, he made money with that book telling how he lost weight on a diet he supposedly never went on. Stomach stapling. Someone with a work ethic would’ve done the diet and exercise and been truthful about it. Do you think Bernie Madoff had a work ethic? Or was he a scammer? Take the quick easy way?
Now, I’m not saying Huckabee is completely without mojo, but he is comparable maybe to a Fred Thompson in terms of work ethic. Give me something else besides he got his name known. I also think letting all those guys out of jail without good reasoning behind it was, besides irresponsible, lazy. He didn’t go to a particularly rigorous school, nor did he obtain a particularly challenging degree although he has inflated his academic achievements through “puffery”, shall we say. Now, he’s raised kids, that takes effort, but did his wife do the lion’s share? How have they turned out? Is the story about the dog mutilation by his son true? Maybe dad was AWOL when those boys needed him most. Maybe. I haven’t studied his life in detail because I haven’t found the superficials very compelling. I’m not a fan, but he does throw out great soundbites. He’s good for media. Not for leadership.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
He’s an ogler. I tried to consider photo shop or bad lighting, but now a second photo has surfaced with him ogling some other lady’s hiney. Save us.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
“Yep. I don’t think Huck will run either. He’s not exactly a workhorse and he’s looking very comfortable where he is.”
Liz, if you want to look at Huckabee’s work schedule, ya just have to click on his website to see all the many things that he is doing. Some of which might not seem like “work” regarding 2012, but reaching out to youth, minorities, ficons, etc requires one to do different types of venues-which is exactly what Huckabee is doing. plus he is campaigning for many state, local and federal gop candidates.
“you lose 300 pounds because you get your stomach stapled.” Wow-that is real classy Liz-stating that Huckabee lost the weight through surgery. I must admit that I am surprised that he has put on many pounds. I hope that he is able to put daily exercise into his schedule. Maintaining weight after 40, I have found, to be harder as metabolism slows down, time to exercise is hard to find, and I am too darn tired after staying up reading the blogs all the time.
For you Romney supporters who state that Huckabee and Palin love the spotlight, you don’t think that Romney loves the spotlight as well?
July 10th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Liz,
Huckabee is a runner-that is what also helped him lose the weight. Unfortunately he did something to his knee and he had to stop running for awhile. But I agree that he should get back to it as I have noticed many snarky comments on blogs about his weight.
As to Huckabee’s education-he finished his bachelors degree in 2 1/2 years-while working, married, and starting a family.
As to his son, how many people do we know that are great parents and they have a kid who turns out wrong. Then there are the awful parents who turn out great kids. But Huckabee’s kids have all turned out just fine-and if you ever listen to Sarah Huckabee, she has told wonderful stories about her father.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
#81.Texas:“For you Romney supporters who state that Huckabee and Palin love the spotlight, you don’t think that Romney loves the spotlight as well?”
No, not at all. He is the shy, retiring type, don’t you know. You can barely get him to speak more than a few monosyllables at a time.
In truth, Texas, a large number of people who know Mitt personally speak of his genuine humility. He drives around in a nondescript car. He files economy class. He introduces himself as “Mitt Romney from Boston, Massachusetts”. I can’t help but compare him with John “Do you know who I am” Kerry from the same state.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t like the spotlight either. Unless a person is the type to trample anybody who gets between them and the camera, it doesn’t bother me in the least if they like people to know they are around.
July 10th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
The underestimation of Jeb Bush continues to amaze me. The guy left office just two years ago (at the height of his brother’s unpopularity) with staggering approval numbers in the mid 60′s. He has both a personal connection to Hispanic voters via his wife and children as well as a history of doing far better then typical Republicans in that demographic. He has access to the best GOP fundraising machine ever constructed and one of the most disciplined campaigns ever. He is thoughtful and intelligent, seemingly possessing his father’s and brother’s strengths without their weaknesses.
And we are supposed to write him off because his brother has approval numbers (as of today) in the 40′s? Because Obama is losing independents at an alarming rate? Because the media tells us to write him off? Because Obama won Ohio and Florida by 2%? Because Obama won NC and Indiana by 1%?
The Bush name has been written off before, so it’s not surprising it’s being written off again. But remember this, the Bush name has appeared on the national ticket 6 times. It’s won 5 of those races, losing only once when a third party candidate took nearly 20% of the vote.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Mitt’s to lose, huh? I kinda like it. I hope Romney runs and sets the precocious Pawlenty straight on his anti-Massachusetts-health-reform shot in the dark. Risky thing, challenging Romney to a healthcare duel. Mom would say Pawlenty is cruzin for a bruzin. Pawlenty will retreat in quick order once Romney sets him straight.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
I think you guys are going to be way off come 2012. Who thought Mike Huckabee would win Iowa and be so popular, what where your thoughts on Guiliani, think he would lose to Ron Paul in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Nobody has any clue who will run and who will do well when they run. I would bet the people saw all they wanted in Romney, he could not beat McCain, and was neck and neck with Huckabee. How Romney is somehow going to take the GOP by storm when he couldnot do it in 2008 is beyond me.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Max,
You are correct about Bushes winning four out of five times they’ve been on the ballot.
However, I can throw out arbitrary numbers just as easily as you can. No Bush ran in 1996. That was four years after Papa Bush left office. 2012 is four years after George W left office. Therefore there will be no Bush on the ticket in 2012.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
oops, make that “five out of six” instead of “four out of five”.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
#86.tj:“How Romney is somehow going to take the GOP by storm when he couldnot do it in 2008 is beyond me.”
Oh, you mean like how Nixon couldn’t do it in 1960 but did it in 1968? Or like Reagan couldn’t do it in 1976 but did it in 1980? Or like how McCain couldn’t do it in 2000 but did it in 2008? Is that what you mean?
July 10th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Liz,
“He didn’t go to a particularly rigorous school, nor did he obtain a particularly challenging degree”
You forgot to mention that Governorships are handed out in Arkansas too.
July 10th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
#90.MWS:”You forgot to mention that Governorships are handed out in Arkansas too.”
Well, Bill Clinton got one, didn’t he?
July 10th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
This is not meant to be critical — I can see you thought long and hard about your analysis on Mike Huckabee.
You are quite right that he is thriving in the media — both on TV and on radio. It comes second nature to him — and he is excellent at it. And, yes, he most certainly loves his job.
But then you go on to say: “Will he give it up for the long hours, the hotels, the airports, the building up and running the campaign organization, the countless hands to shake of people you’ve never met and never will again, the constant scrutiny by unfriendly eyes waiting for the least little slip to use against you, the never-ending strategy meetings, and the endless rounds of banquet dinners that all taste the same?”
Anyone who is a true Huckabee fan is well-aware that he is doing all this now — building up through his Huck Pac 50-state organization, interacting daily thru facebook and twitter, traveling five days a week (excluding his time for his show), constantly speaking, meeting people, shaking hands, being ambushed wherever he goes (including in the airport), being quoted (most times out of context) for every word he utters, under constant scruitiny by unfriendly eyes, and endless rounds of fund=raising banquet dinners.
It will not be any of that which will deter a campaign run. If he wants to give it another shot, he is in perfect shape — far better in practice than his rivals.
It will depend on two things: First, the general landscape vis=a=vis how Obama is being perceived. Yes, I know we all think the president is going to hell with his ratings, but trust me it will not be a three-year downward thrust without any upward movement.
“If he is smart, he won’t go back if he has something better; and he is, and he does.” Very well said, very astute analysis. Therein, lies the second reason why he might not run. If he believes he can be more effective in shaping policy thru media than politics, he may certainly go that way.
Time will tell — I frankly believe that, if the landscape permits, he will run. To a certain degree, I believe he is fervently attempting to stay under the radar so that, if he does run, he has the best chance of creating a buzz (if I am right about his attempts to fly low, it looks like he is being very successful).
But I for one notice that sly smile on his face whenever a FOX colleague (or a guest on “Huckabee”) encourages him to run in 2012.
I agree with MSW: You should list him as “May not run.”
July 10th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
marK,
Actually, I think Clinton’s work ethic is underrated. People tend to see him as a sex fiend and a louse (which he kind of is), but the guy actually had a pretty strong work ethic.
Now Huckabee, on the other hand, went from poor kid, to college graduate, to head of Arkansas SBC, to Lt. Governor, to Governor, to 1% Presidential candidate, to leading Presidential candidate on sheer laziness.
July 10th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Do you really think this scrutiny rises to any level close to what presidential candidates get? C’mon.
July 10th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
#92.voter,
Thank-you for your carefully thought-out feedback. Several thoughts come to mind.
(1)I have a hard time accepting that his current activities come anywhere close to the efforts required in a national campaign. He has been there, done that. He knows what it is really like.
(2)The polls started out the year with Huckabee on top. Since January, Huck’s support has steadily eroded until just this past week his numbers came out behind Romney’s for the very first time. Now if that is happening with Huck being as active as you claim he is, and Romney essentially doing little more than making the occasional speech and/or issuing a simple press release now and again; that can’t be good. It almost reminds me of New Hampshire 2008 where Giuliani had to withdraw because every time he spend money there, his poll numbers went down. That had to be extremely frustrating to Rudy.
(3)As I mentioned in post #4, I don’t know if Huckabee has decided if he is running or not, sly grins or no sly grins. I placed him where I placed him because that is what I believe he will ultimately decide to do. It represents my efforts to get inside his head and predict his future actions.
(4)I came awfully close to choosing “May Run” for Huck. I could have played it safe and placed him there. That way, I would be right no matter what happened. Yet what good is an analysis if the writer pulls his punches? So in the end, I put him exactly where I honestly think at the moment. If things change in the future, I will be more than happy to move him up.
Thanks again for the feedback.
July 10th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
93.MWS:“Now Huckabee, on the other hand, went from poor kid, to college graduate, to head of Arkansas SBC, to Lt. Governor, to Governor, to 1% Presidential candidate, to leading Presidential candidate on sheer laziness.”
If you say so. I suspect there was a little more to it than that.
(Turnabout is fair play, MWS.)
July 10th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
Romney gets things done. That’s his focus. I’ve never seen him change his fashion, religion, or demeanor for the cameras. Is he shy? No, he’s competent. But he doesn’t play for the cameras either.
I wonder if Ann would buy a $6,000 dollar purse? I don’t think so. Nah, I don’t think she’s that kind of person.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
#97.Liz,
Yes, that is what I like about Romney. He is what you see.
As to the $6,000 purse, I’m not sure. Ann, the wife of Mitt Romney certainly wouldn’t. Ann, the First Lady might. She will understand that as wife of the President, she will be expected to maintain a certain level of fashion. We can’t have the first couple running around in rags, now can we? Whether or not a $6,000 purse is appropriate is debatable, but I would trust her judgment on that sort of thing.
I have always envision Ann Romney to be similar in style to Laura Bush. Laura was about my ideal image of what a First Lady should be.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Remember, Mitt will be serving with no pay, so he’ll probably want to be frugal…his kids said he would complain if hey left a light bulb on in the bathroom. He drives a 20 year old car.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
#99.IlliniDude,
You are absolutely correct. However, one of the biggest mistakes that Jimmy Carter made when assuming the office was getting rid of, as he put it, the “Imperial Presidency”. Remember his walk down Pennsylvania Avenue instead of the traditional ride at his Inauguration? That was to symbolize that this President was a man of the People. He also got rid of the Marine Band playing “Hail to the Chief” everywhere he went and got rid of almost all the flourishes at state functions. Do you remember all that? I sure do.
Well that lasted about a year, if memory serves. Carter learned that not only is the President the Head of Government, but he is also Head of State as well. In other words, the President represents the Country. He is the living and breathing symbol of America. The traditional trappings of the office have been worked out over the centuries as to what is appropriate for the First Citizen and his family. Mess with them at your peril.
I remember watching Johnny Carson right after Carter attempted his first (and only?) fireside chat. Carter was dressed in a turtleneck. Johnny (no conservative, he) mocked him, say that he half expected Carter to call out, “Hey Rosaline, how about a beer?”
So while the Romneys may indeed be frugal, the requirements of the office are not necessarily so. Mitt and Ann have the class to do what is appropriate for the office and no more.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
marK,
“(Turnabout is fair play, MWS.)”
I think that’s actually in my personal creed.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
What do you people have against success? Go back and read Mark B Lowe’s scenario Of Gov. Mitt Romney and then read it again…He is the answer for 2012. He is the only answer. Oh, you don’t agree??? Well, then he is the most qualified..and on this statement I will not bend. Again, review the video of the Cpac introduction by David Keene. He will make your head spin, and practically apologizes to Mitt for not being the choice in 2008…then do yourself a favor and listen to Gov. Romney’s barn burning speech…Mitt is a winner, positive, kind, but firm, and no pushover. Just ask Tag about the motor that fell off a little fishing boat…You really don’t all know the Mitt that some of us have had the privilege to meet and converse with..He is funny, quick witted and his presence is amazing. He just warms the room. Mitt would be a wonderful President…I think he could surpass Reagan’s legacy…I feel that strong about Gov. Mitt Romney for 2012…..
July 10th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Small correction in #100. Carter did not dress in a turtleneck. He wore a cardigan sweater
Be that as it may, his attempts at casualness backfired on him, and he lost gravitas.
July 10th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
FWIW, Rudy edged out Paul in New Hampshire by 2,000 votes.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH
July 10th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Democrats Maintain Edge in Party Support, but Gap Shrinks
Advantage over Republicans is now 49% to 40%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121565/Democrats-Maintain-Edge-Party-Support-Gap-Shrinks.aspx?version=print
July 10th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Much of Michelle’s wardrobe is from a 26 year old pop fashion designer.
He is designing clothes for Michele that is in my view way too young for her. I don’t think Anne Romney or Laura Bush would carry a $6,000 purse to go on a hike in Russia, or wear $400 tennis shoes to pass out food at a homeless shelter. Some of her clothes look just awful, but the times when she dresses her age she looks good.
Besides, she is being overcharged and probably doesn’t care.
Laura Bush had a designer, and I’m sure Ann Romney would if she was the first lady, but I think they both know the value of a dollar, and would realize when they are being ripped off. They’re both pretty confident woman, and probably don’t feel the need to make a fashion statement.
July 10th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Ah yes. Class. You either have it, or you don’t. Laura Bush had it in Spades. Ann shows every sign of having it.
Michelle seems a paradox. She has class, but she seems determined to act traditional nouveau-riche, instead. Why exactly, I cannot imagine.
July 10th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
“I have a hard time accepting that his current activities come anywhere close to the efforts required in a national campaign. He has been there, done that. He knows what it is really like.”
Thanks for your response. Notwithstanding your thoughtful analysis, I must hold my ground on this one. As an ardent Huckabee supporter and follower, he has beem carrying an extremely heavy schedule.
“The polls started out the year with Huckabee on top. Since January, Huck’s support has steadily eroded until just this past week his numbers came out behind Romney’s for the very first time.”
There have been about four or five polls; in each case the three frontrunners have all been within the MOE – taking turns who is “on top”; Palin in the first, Huckabee in the next two or three (by 1 point in the last) and now Romney. All this tells me is that each of them have their ardent support group — between 22% and 25% of the voting constituency — and the rest of the voters are up for grabs. There hasn’t been any real movement — and certainly no slippage — for anyone — and this is totally consistent with political reality. Three years out — and three frontrunners crunched together in the MOE — tells us nothing other than that. Huckabee is certainly holding his own — as is everyone else — no time to crow; no time to cry.
I will support my candidate whatever his choice — but he has, at this point, at least as good a chance as anyone else.
But, again, thanks for your thoughtful analysis — and good manners — don’t always experience that when you are discussing Huckabee on race42012.
July 10th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
voter – with respect, if the last poll would have included indies, I think it would have been beyond the margin of error. With pure Republican Mitt lead Huckabee 25-22, and Mitt is extremely strong with independents now. I guess we’ll wait and see.
July 10th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
One more point: When reviewing polls, you need to compare the same pollsters — i.e., in this case, Rasmussen. The one and only 2012 Rasmussen poll I know of before this one was immediately after the election with the following results: Palin, 64; Huckabee 12; and Romney 11. At that point, days after the election, I think this would be an inevitable result. Now, eight months later, each of them has set into their fan base, with an equal percentage.
July 10th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Illinoisguy — I agree, we shall see — if they all run. But I will gently point out that the PPP polls include everyone — republicans, democrats and independents — when they match the republican potential primary candidates against Obama. Of course, Obama wins in all cases — which is normal at this point — but Huck and Romney do the same against Obama. I will suggest, however, that here, in a general election, Governor Palin does substantially worse.
July 10th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
MarkK: 107,
No, I’m not talking about class. All three are very classy women. I’m talking about good judgment.
I think Michelle should dress a bit more conservative than she does.
The First Family is the closest thing Americans have to Royalty, and I think she has to have certain kind of image. I’m not saying she should dress like an old lady, but maybe not so much like a 25 year old. For instance, as a First Lady I think she wears her pants to tight. It seems like she could find a style that would look good but maybe just a little bit ……hey I’m worn out. I’m not a designer, and this is only my opinion, but…..
Maybe she should get a new Designer, not the 25 year old, but one a little closer to Michelle’s age so they would know the proper clothes she should wear. What does a 25 year old male know what a 49 year old women should wear.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
voter,
I will be the first one to say that it is folly to put too much emphasis upon polls taken this far out. Especially if one is trying to read the tea leaves for an event still years in the future.
However, they are useful for measuring what is happening NOW. And what is happening NOW, according to your testimony, is that Huckabee is working his tail off attempting to build his base. You would therefore assume that his numbers would be going up, correct? But that is NOT what is happening. Instead, Huck’s numbers continue to sag, along with Sarah Palin’s. Mitt’s are rising, and he is barely doing anything. He’s the one without his own TV show, remember? Of course, Huck’s numbers haven’t been anywhere near the freefall Sarah’s has been. I suspect what we are seeing is the numbers seeking out their natural levels in the wake of the election. If that be the case, then the trends are not looking good for either Sarah or Mike.
No, it is not time to hit any panic buttons by any means. Nor is it time for Romney-backers to start feeling smug. At this point four years ago depending upon the poll, Rudy Giuliani was enjoying a comfortable double digit lead over McCain, and Romney was in the lower single digits. Huckabee was one percent and even lower. And Hillary had the race for the Democrats sewn up.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Look at what Huck’s people are up to. Stoped by hucksarmy as it is always good for a laugh and saw this posted as a result of concern over how well Romney is doing. What a bunch of petty, vindictive, ankle-biters:
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2007 10:26 am
Posts: 900
Location: Searcy, AR davidblp wrote:
I think its about time to launch stop Mitt. Any thoughts?
I’ve been thinking the same thing lately David. I’ve been reading Facebook comments on Palin, Huckabee, and Romney, and they’re pretty evenly divided between the three. A couple of interesting points:
1) Lots of people willing to mix Huckabee/Palin, Palin/Romney, Huckabee/Romney, etc. Apparently they missed the animosity between Mike and Mitt during the primaries. The only way these two men could end up on the same ticket would be if Mike gets the nomination but somehow develops a reputation that he doesn’t know enough about the economy. Mitt would never pick Mike.
The downside of this is that at least these people either never saw how poorly Romney treated Huckabee or they’ve forgotten.
2) While very few in the comments section single out Romney for negative comments, there’s still a lot of animosity from Romney people towards Huckabee.
I think it’d be good to see some polite challenges of Romney’s record (and a link to your website) among the other comments to get people thinking, and to remind them of who Romney really is (or isn’t?). Right now they’re not there.
Finally, if we do this it has to be done carefully. We don’t want to get a reputation like Ron Paul’s supporters got. However, considering how nice everyone is on here and how few we are compared with Paul supporters, I don’t think we run a risk of hurting ourselves by launching a stop-Romney campaign at this point.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Yeah bags, they banned me after making two mildly supportive comments about Mitt.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
The bastards.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Texasconserv,
You’ll need to get over Huck soon, he isn’t running. He himself said he doesn’t see it happening. He said “it was a brutal experience for me.”
What! It was a brutal experience for everyone! He won’t run, and we don’t need whiners leading the country anyway. All he did during the campaign is whine about how big bully Romney called him out on his record of raising taxes.
Boo-hoo. Time to let him go.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I think the Huckster’s chances of running are almost as high as Mitt’s. His statement wasn’t really anything I would put too much stock in. While he may not, that statement is just the usual fluff you hear from politicians all the time.
July 10th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
A $30,000 an hour attorney? Palin report overstates inquiries’ costs
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/310/story/71675.html?storylink=omni_popular
Levi: Palin not ‘cut out’ for presidency
Levi Johnston, the father of Sarah Palin’s grandchild, says she’s resigning as governor of Alaska to cash in on her fame and adds he wouldn’t vote for her for president
http://video.ap.org/?f=wasee&pid=ZdzlVqQWPV94zT_edhJN3nq4vMWQPf0n
Palin Camp Takes on Levi Johnston
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2009/07/palin_camp_takes_on_levi_johns.html
Sarah Palin’s midlife meltdown
The only job left for Sarah Palin is to pretend to be a candidate for president, writes columnist Ellen Goodman. In the middle of a midlife meltdown, the quitter is now the teaser.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2009442072_egoodman10.html
Palin signs gun rights bill, then appears on gun rights radio talk show
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-us-palin-gun-rights,0,3249660.story?track=rss
July 11th, 2009 at 12:18 am
Yep #98, I thought Laura Bush was 1st class too, and likable on top of that.
Initially I thought Michelle Obama had this great tall, strong sillhouette for sporty, classic outfits, but the stuff she wears looks lousy to me. She wears these giant size belts too high on her waist, then layers lots of shirts or jackets and they are kind of second hand looking things with flower decals or what have you on them. The gold mu-mu for inauguration looked gaudy to me. She wears lots of too short skirts and immodest stuff, I don’t think she’s always appropriate. But I have seen one, or two shots where she wears classic cuts and looks really good. I’m no fashion queen, but Jackie O she ain’t. That’s why the pricey accessories bug me so much, they look like junk. If she’s gonna blow my tax dollars, represent the country well, honey.
July 11th, 2009 at 12:34 am
I am SO supportive of Ms. Palin, I’m sick of her being targeted because it really is an attack on women and womanhood everywhere. And family values. And conservatism. I don’t know why McCain doesn’t stand up for her, he should take some responsibility for throwing her to the media sharks and her subsequent public flogging. The expectations that she be some sort of Phoenix Goddess and arise from the ashes and win the presidency while keeping her family intact are….bizarre and reminiscent of the Obama ascendency fanatics. If she wants to be president, however, I’m thinking it has to be after ABC, NBC, MSNBC blah blah go bankrupt because they will continue to aggravate the entire country with their attacks and dishonesty until they become obsolete, and the country will be divided or at least exhausted by the inner turmoil.
Maybe Romney and co can re-establish the rule of law, and some general decency, then Palin could run un-harrassed by the liberal women-haters that so run the media today. Maybe that is too much to hope for, and law and order are now being lost forever. I choose not to think that way.
The current environment of chaos and divisiveness that Obama is sowing is not conducive to a Palin victory, right now.
And the thought occurred to me today, from all the headlines and racism at country club swimming pools and cronyism and I swear it seems like race relations are taking a giant step backwards under Obama. I feel like sexism, racism, the whole she-bang is once again starting to run rampant and gain the upper hand, dividing this country. I don’t think this guy is a uniter. At all. He’s got the banana republic attitude of governance, and the country seems worse off for it in a lotta ways.
July 11th, 2009 at 12:36 am
These sorts of supporters, no matter who they are loyal too, do their candidate’s cause far more harm than good.
July 11th, 2009 at 1:00 am
I don’t think you’re taking into account the bad taste Romney left in the mouths of a lot of Republicans here in Iowa and elsewhere by going all negative, all the time on Huckabee last time. I don’t know how many enemies Mitt made, but there are an awful lot of people who see him as selfish and willing to trash a guy whom he may have to support as the party’s nominee in order to better his own position.
Romney has fences to mend; time will tell as to whether he even realizes how many fences he damaged in 2008.
July 11th, 2009 at 1:03 am
I would put Huck in the “will run” category because of the way he is repositioning his fiscal views farther and farther away from his actual record as Governor and closer to the views of fiscal conservatives and tea party-goers. He’s either running or he’s had some sort of genuine chage of heart, and if it was the latter, he would be being a lot more honest about the shift in his views.
July 11th, 2009 at 1:19 am
Bob #123:
True, but 2012 isn’t 2008.
Anyone whose been on this website for 2 years or more knows how much I absolutely despised Romney in ’08, so I think I speak with some authority when I say most McCain/ Giuliani and Thompson voters will probably at least give him a second look. For one thing, Romney’s current wonkish, policy specific personna is vastly preferable to the born again so-con warrior he tried to project in Iowa, and it suits both his political strengths and style a lot better. For another, the candidates who I liked that he went after (Rudy, later McCain) aren’t running this time around, so its pretty much water under the bridge.
And finally, just look at this bench. Yikes. Were the ’12 crop brimming with what I consider top line candidates, maybe I’d feel differently, but as it stands right now I prefer Romney to Huckabee and that’s enough for me to give him a second chance. Maybe he’ll figure out a way to tick me off again, or maybe a white knight on a dark horse will come out of nowhere to win my vote, or maybe he’ll convince me to pull the lever for him in 3 years. We’ll see.
July 11th, 2009 at 8:08 am
The ‘Lowe Down’ is absolutely correct in his analysis of the race for 2012 and #13 is probably correct on Romney-Pawlenty being the ticket.
July 11th, 2009 at 9:24 am
The Massachusetts Health Mess
Massachusetts shows how ObamaCare would really work.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124726287099225209.html#printMode
July 11th, 2009 at 9:50 am
A Message from Peter Schiff
http://www.schiffforsenate.com/
July 11th, 2009 at 9:58 am
David Brooks says a Republican senator groped his inner thigh at a dinner party
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqbyiq2VjOw&eurl=
July 11th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
“You’ll need to get over Huck soon, he isn’t running. He himself said he doesn’t see it happening.”
I don’t know who is or isn’t running, but this is what I mean about misquoting out of context. Huckabee said, “I don’t know if I will be running, I honestly don’t. It might not be in my future.”
He most certainly did not said “I’m not running.”
He said campaigning is brutal — but not in context to him personally — in general — and it is brutal. He also said Arkansas politics was the roughest he ever experienced, and he served for 10-1/2 years (compared to Mitt’s four), as well as two and a half years as lt. gov, so I guess he is able to look brutality in the face, should he choose.
July 11th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
“Instead, Huck’s numbers continue to sag, along with Sarah Palin’s. Mitt’s are rising, and he is barely doing anything. He’s the one without his own TV show, remember? Of course, Huck’s numbers haven’t been anywhere near the freefall Sarah’s has been. I suspect what we are seeing is the numbers seeking out their natural levels in the wake of the election. If that be the case, then the trends are not looking good for either Sarah or Mike.”
I guess we can go back and forth all day on this. So this is my last post on the subject; repetition simply produces diminishing returns.
Mitt is certainly out there, as are all his spokespeople — and he has plenty of them. A lot of the establishment is pushing Mitt as a frontrunner. I would hardly say he is doing “nothing.” I doubt that any of the candidates have hit their stride. I simply was pointing out, in response to your analysis that he was too positioned in the media — as someone else said — too lazy — to run, that he is very energetic these days.
Mitt is constantly touted as the “frontrunner”; Mike is constantly treated as the regional candidate: too Christian, too southern, too folksy, too irrelevant — and the latest, he is even isn’t running. Against this barage, Mike stays consistently at the top with his rivals (and, as you have noted, tops it in three of the polls).
To reiterate, each of them has a set base — approximately 22 to 25% — and they remain within the MOE. Sarah had one great Rasmussen poll immediately after the election that put her at 64% — that was not realistic. It does not mean she is sagging. It means she had an artificial jump associated with the passions of losing an election.
Romney has not been “surging.” Mike is not “sagging.” I cannot be anymore analytically honest.
You are free to set your sites as you wish — and put Mike wherever you want. But if the next PPP poll shows Mike on top, will any of us attempt to say that Mitt is sagging? I certainly promise not to.
So, bye for now — I leave you to have the last “post.”
July 11th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
I still believe it is too early to tell who is going to run. I also believe we are not doing our party or any of the possible, or plausible, candidates any good by all of this infighting. One thing we know for sure is that Mitt, Mike or Sarah would be a better President than Obama…heck Ron Paul would be a Reagan compared to the leftist Carter that now occupies the White House.
I would think as a leading conservative site we would want a unified message…one that says our party is the party of ideas, our party is the party of realism, our party is the party that fixes problems and our possible candidates are the future leaders of our great nation. I’m rooting for Sarah, along with Ohio and Tommy Boy and Kristopher, I know marK and illinois are rooting for Mitt, one of the Adams are rooting for Huckabee but we’re all on the same team and our team will be the team that wins the penant in 2010 and the Series in 2012.
July 12th, 2009 at 12:44 am
You would rather Sarah as President than President Obama? Do you have no concern for our world?
July 12th, 2009 at 7:20 am
“You would rather Sarah as President than President Obama? Do you have no concern for our world?” If the world would sooner have Mr. Obama instead of Mrs. Palin than the world has serious problem. Oh wait, the world does have serious problems and they have not gotten any better since Mr. Obama came on the seen.
July 12th, 2009 at 7:20 am
OK scene.
July 12th, 2009 at 7:36 am
I can kinda buy people thinking Sarah is cute (in a ditsy type of way) but these comments about her being able to be president are getting very lame. Wake up and smell the roses.
July 12th, 2009 at 8:13 am
No lamer than Mr. Obama being able to be President. Anyone who does not recognize Mr. Obama’s recklessness is missing something to say the least.
July 12th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
I’ve gotta back Joe up on this. Obama is clearly in way over his head. I don’t see how Palin could perform any worse than he has.
July 12th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Well, it is probably a moot point now, thanks, GetReal, I am glad that you are among those who put our party first.
July 12th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
My predictions…
Sarah Palin will run in 2012 as a 3rd party. Huck will be her VP or vice-versa.
Mitt will get the GOP nomination just because the so-cons are now in the Palin Independent party camp and Barack gets a 3rd term because the GOP was split.
July 12th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
“I don’t think you’re taking into account the bad taste Romney left in the mouths of a lot of Republicans here in Iowa and elsewhere by going all negative, all the time on Huckabee last time.”
Cry me a river. This is politics, and if they can’t handle it, they had better get out. Huck did his passive agressive negativity the whole campaign and continues to do it (remember the “I was going to show this add” but I decided not to), and McCain was so desperate in Florida that he stooped to lying.
July 13th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
141#, so what ? Beat down your opponents any way you can while mantain the high road and win. You will not get anywhere otherwise.
November 29th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
[...] called it back in July. This is what I said back then: I thought long and hard before putting Mike here (under the [...]
May 13th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
[...] announcement will be tomorrow should be interesting. Kavon has stated all along that Mike will run. I predicted he wouldn’t at least as early as July 2009 — nearly two years ago. By Sunday we will know who was [...]