Shock Poll – Conservative Movement Still Alive and Strong

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26 Responses to “Shock Poll – Conservative Movement Still Alive and Strong”

1. Tommy Boy Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 6:45 pm

   In other words, there are fewer moderates today than there were on November 4th but more moderates of the moderates that are left view Obama with greater approval than they did on November 4th while just as many conservatives view him favorably as they did on November 4th despite the swell in the percentage of the electorate that considers itself conservative.

2. Adam Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 6:46 pm

   The only problem with this is that it just doesn’t seem to fit with current day politics. Sure, 40 percent of people call themselves “conservative” – but how many of those “conservative” people actually have any clue what it means to be conservative?

   It could just be that the Right has been so successful at demonizing (rightfully so, in my view) liberals that calline oneself “conservative” or “moderate” is little more than a knee-jerk reaction.

   Think about it. Even die-hard liberal kooks would rather be called “progressive” than liberal.

   The poll results look nice but I am not sure that they mean all that much in the real world.

3. Adam Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 6:48 pm

   Letterman caved.

   Here’s the full text of Letterman’s comments, which will be telecast tonight.

   “All right, here – I’ve been thinking about this situation with Governor Palin and her family now for about a week – it was a week ago tonight, and maybe you know about it, maybe you don’t know about it. But there was a joke that I told, and I thought I was telling it about the older daughter being at Yankee Stadium. And it was kind of a coarse joke. There’s no getting around it, but I never thought it was anybody other than the older daughter, and before the show, I checked to make sure in fact that she is of legal age, 18. Yeah. But the joke really, in and of itself, can’t be defended. The next day, people are outraged. They’re angry at me because they said, ‘How could you make a lousy joke like that about the 14-year-old girl who was at the ball game?’ And I had, honestly, no idea that the 14-year-old girl, I had no idea that anybody was at the ball game except the governor and I was told at the time she was there with Rudy Giuliani … and I really should have made the joke about Rudy …” (audience applauds) “But I didn’t, and now people are getting angry and they’re saying, ‘Well, how can you say something like that about a 14-year-old girl, and does that make you feel good to make those horrible jokes about a kid who’s completely innocent, minding her own business,’ and, turns out, she was at the ball game. I had no idea she was there. So she’s now at the ball game, and people think that I made the joke about her. And, but still, I’m wondering, ‘Well, what can I do to help people understand that I would never make a joke like this?’ I’ve never made jokes like this as long as we’ve been on the air, 30 long years, and you can’t really be doing jokes like that. And I understand, of course, why people are upset. I would be upset myself.

   “And then I was watching the Jim Lehrer ‘Newshour’ – this commentator, the columnist Mark Shields, was talking about how I had made this indefensible joke about the 14-year-old girl, and I thought, ‘Oh, boy, now I’m beginning to understand what the problem is here. It’s the perception rather than the intent.’ It doesn’t make any difference what my intent was, it’s the perception. And, as they say about jokes, if you have to explain the joke, it’s not a very good joke. And I’m certainly – ” (audience applause) “– thank you. Well, my responsibility – I take full blame for that. I told a bad joke. I told a joke that was beyond flawed, and my intent is completely meaningless compared to the perception. And since it was a joke I told, I feel that I need to do the right thing here and apologize for having told that joke. It’s not your fault that it was misunderstood, it’s my fault. That it was misunderstood.” (audience applauds) “Thank you. So I would like to apologize, especially to the two daughters involved, Bristol and Willow, and also to the governor and her family and everybody else who was outraged by the joke. I’m sorry about it and I’ll try to do better in the future. Thank you very much.” (audience applause)

   http://www.thrfeed.com/2009/06/letterman-readdresses-palin.html

4. Adam Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 6:51 pm

   DeMint decided to “Just Say No” to Charlie Crist’s FL senate bid and is endorsing Rubio instead.

   http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23754.html

5. Right Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 7:07 pm

   Roughly a third of conservatives are not Republicans. I blame George Bush. I really do.

6. Adam Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 7:15 pm

   Roughly a third of conservatives are not Republicans. I blame George Bush. I really do.

   Maybe. But it really shouldn’t matter. If conservatives are out there they will gravitate toward the conservative candidate and come back to the GOP once we field a strong candidate.

   I just have trouble believing that 40 percent of the country is “conservative” in the sense that most readers of this site would define the word.

7. JA Pruce Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 7:17 pm

   This poll proves that the U.S. is a Republican country.

8. Adam Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 7:19 pm

   Pruce,

   That’s just the point. The poll would suggest that, but the 100-EV electoral loss just seven months ago would sort of suggest otherwise.

9. DanL Says:
   June 15th, 2009 at 7:23 pm

   Adam, you have a point. But McCain was hardly a conservative, so why should conservatives flock to him last fall?

10. Adam Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 7:29 pm

    DanL,

    At this point I would love to run an all around conservative in a presidential election, just to see what would happen. Let’s see just how Republican or conservative this country really is. If our guy wins, then great. But if not, then the GOP needs to do som serious soul-searching.

11. Tommy Boy Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    Using this poll, if we win 80% of conservatives just as we effectively did on November 4th, all we would need is 30% of the remaining voters to get to 50%.

12. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

    In context, this current data is neither shocking nor suggestive of any shift toward conservatism over the past 2.5 years.

    Very conservative 9% (7%)
    Conservative 31% (35%)
    Moderate 35% (33%)
    Liberal 16% (16%)
    Very liberal 5% (6%)
    No opinion 4% (3%)

    Results from the same poll conducted after the GOP’s 2006 midterm ass-whupping are in parentheses. The Gallup poll taken November 27-29, 2006 found Americans are more likely to describe their political views as conservative (42%) and less likely to say they are moderate (33%) when the liberal option is offered than when the term progressive is offered (36% say they are conservatives and 43% moderates in the progressive construction).

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/25771/Many-Americans-Use-Multiple-Labels-Describe-Their-Ideology.aspx?version=print

13. Martha Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

    Letterman got what he wanted out of it – ratings. He waited as long as he could to apologize. Will the Palinites now let it die? I guess his apology takes the wind out of the Conservatives4PAlin protest tomorrow. Hehe.

14. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:06 pm

    Letterman apologizes for joke, but Palin supporters vow to continue fight
    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/showtracker/2009/06/under-fire-for-a-risque-joke-last-week-david-letterman-has-apologized-to-gov-sarah-palin-and-her-supporters-but-a-group-ur.html

15. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Republican political strategist Mike Murphy suggested this week that Sarah Palin could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by suggesting that David Letterman is a sexual pervert. Look Mike, you’re the one who’s bringing up snatch in context with Gov. Palin…I’m just sayin’…

    http://www.examiner.com/x-10338-Lewis-County-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2009m6d15-Foreclosures-r-Us

16. Tommy Boy Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:22 pm

    Aron,

    Got anymore links from Hollywood Gossip, Daily Kos, Perez Hilton that you want to put up before Letterman falls on his sword tonight?

17. Tommy Boy Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    By the way, our ten point differential among moderates amounts to around an eight-point swing assumming that moderates comprise at least 40% of the respondents in its poll.

18. Tommy Boy Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    Aron, McKinnon knows a thing or two about politics….

    Palin vs. Biden 2016
    In the third of a series on the 2012 landscape, former Bush and McCain strategist Mark McKinnon says Palin is getting stronger by the day—and will be ready to take on the Obama agenda (or his vice president) in three years or seven.
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-06-15/palin-vs-biden-2016/full/

    Yet, despite buckets of criticism constantly flung her way, she’s got a lot going for her. Just like George W. Bush, people and the media constantly “misunderestimate” her. No matter what you think about her politics, this woman is tenacious, fearless, and savvy. John McCain’s former chief of staff, Mark Salter, said it best: “What she knows, you can’t teach. And what she doesn’t know, she can learn.”

    She got thrown in the deep end before she could swim. As my friend Stuart Stevens said, “It was like picking someone of the street and telling them they had to take the MCATs the next day.” But, she dog-paddled furiously, thrashed about, made a lot of waves, and managed not to drown. And now she’s got her water wings. And she’s working on her strokes. And by 2012 or 2016, she’ll be a lot stronger.

    It you need evidence, check out her appearance Friday with Wolf Blitzer. I disagree with my friend and sponsor Tina Brown on this subject. I think Palin knocked it out of the park. It was a long and substantive interview. Kudos to Blitzer and CNN for giving her a full 15 minutes of airtime. And she more than held her own. Talked about a natural gas-pipeline deal that is good a deal and smart politics. Talked about Obamanomics. And laid a pretty good beating on David Letterman.

    Letterman has been employing as part of his defense that his very bad joke was aimed at Palin’s older, 18-year-old daughter Bristol, not her 14-year-old, Willow. As if this somehow justifies his egregiously poor judgment. But as Palin pointed out, she attended the Yankees game with Willow.

    And surely his joke writers read about their attendance at the game. How else would they have thought of the joke. So they had to know it was Willow. Or, at least they certainly should have. Ignorance is a lousy excuse.

    My initial reflex on this issue was wrong. As a former journalist who was once jailed on a First Amendment issue (defending an Iranian’s right to protest in Texas!), I always lean toward defending anyone’s right to say whatever stupid thing they want to say. And pay the consequences of the market. In this case, viewers. Letterman’s joke was crude and inappropriate, but my fear was that the Republican right wing would make too big a deal out of it, thereby achieving Letterman’s end game: attention, and consequently, eyeballs. I still think calling him a pervert or a pederast just lowers Palin to his level. The best way to hurt Letterman is to ignore him.

    And he deserves to be ignored. He is a mean, petty, bitter guy. Over the years working with candidates, I’ve dealt with late-night shows a lot. And there is a definite spectrum. On one side, you have Jay Leno, who treated guests with total professionalism and respect. Jay would always come to the green room and personally meet the guest and make sure they were comfortable and at ease. Always brought flowers for female guests or companions. Letterman, on the other hand, was consistently rude. He acts like he’s doing you a big favor have you on the show. He never greets guests before the show. Likes putting the freeze on them (the green room is frigid and spare) so you walk out cold and he always has the advantage.

    But at the end of the day on this one, score one for Palin. She looks like a good and righteous mom defending her kids and Letterman looks like the cruel punk that he is.

    She’s getting stronger. And when asked by Blitzer about her plans for reelection as governor in 2010 or about a run for president in 2012, Palin demurred. Whatever she decides, she’s going to be a player. She could get reelected and still run in 2012. Or, she could get reelected and not run in 2012, but go out and be a celebrity on the circuit supporting the nominee and earn a lot of points for 2016 (assuming the Republicans lose in 2012, a pretty good bet right now). Or she may not run for reelection and load up for 2012. But, my bet is that whatever she decides, she’ll be on the stage in 2016. And by then, she’ll be a lot stronger. And by the Salter theorum, she will have learned a lot.

    And despite his shortcomings, by 2016, Joe Biden will have locked up all the natural advantages any vice president has running for president.

19. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 10:37 pm

    “thrashed about”…”managed not to drown”…”she’s working on her strokes”…”what she doesn’t know, she can learn”…”I still think calling him a pervert or a pederast just lowers Palin to his level.”…”She’s getting stronger.”..”she’s going to be a player”…”she could go out and be a celebrity on the circuit”…”by 2012 or 2016, she’ll be a lot stronger.”

    So, in NFL draft-ese, McKinnon sees Palin having ‘tremendous upside potential’, but still thinks she might not be ready to start at QB for another seven years, perhaps longer, and that’s assuming, of course, she can quickly grasp the playbook and learn how to read complex defenses.

    And surely his joke writers read about their attendance at the game. How else would they have thought of the joke?

    Like I, or most any New Yorker did — by reading about it in the Daily News. And guess who there’s no mention of in the entire article?

    And he deserves to be ignored. He is a mean, petty, bitter guy. Over the years working with candidates, I’ve dealt with late-night shows a lot. And there is a definite spectrum. On one side, you have Jay Leno, who treated guests with total professionalism and respect. Jay would always come to the green room and personally meet the guest and make sure they were comfortable and at ease. Always brought flowers for female guests or companions. Letterman, on the other hand, was consistently rude. He acts like he’s doing you a big favor have you on the show. He never greets guests before the show. Likes putting the freeze on them (the green room is frigid and spare) so you walk out cold and he always has the advantage.

    McKinnon discredits himself by sounding like a whiny, vindictive bitch with an axe to grind in this paragraph. And while McKinnon certainly knows a thing or two about politics, I don’t know if he was being facetious, but anyone who thinks a 74-year-old Biden will have the Democratic nomination locked up in 2016 should probably be…locked up.

20. Heath Says:
    June 15th, 2009 at 10:59 pm

    Warner has to be the odds on fav to take on Mitt in 2016.

21. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 12:51 am

    Rudy Giuliani Testing the Waters for Gubernatorial Run?
    http://www.wcbs880.com/Giuliani-Testing-the-Waters-for-Gubernatorial-Run-/4603481

    CBS News has learned from a Facebook message sent by former press lead for the White House, Healy Baumgardner, that Rudy Giuliani is going to test his chances for being elected governor.

    Baumgardner recently started her own political consulting group in which she states: “Under the Democratic leadership, New York is in headed for a meltdown. The Democrats have proven themselves unwilling to moderate their spending, and their extreme agenda has left New York with an expected $47 billion budget deficit over the next few years. This is expected to cost every New Yorker upwards of $2,500 in new taxes. That’s $2,500 less that we will have to pay for the ever-increasing cost of living in our state, or spend on our families, or save for our retirement — $2,500 that will go into the government’s coffers and fuel the Democrats agenda.”

    Baumgarder also argues that New York needs a true reformer: a governor with an understanding of the city’s economic growth who will streamline government, cut taxes, and create jobs.

22. Aron Goldman Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 2:44 am

    Haaretz poll: Netanyahu approval rating leaps after policy speech
    http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093234.html

    Obama: Netanyahu’s speech could jumpstart peace talks
    http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093291.html

    In Defense Of Israel’s Right To Exist
    Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech Sunday was both tough and conciliatory to those who threaten his nation’s very existence. What did he get in return? The diplomatic equivalent of warm spit.
    http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=329958167572453

    Helping Mahmoud
    The “quiet” U.S. reaction to Tehran’s dubious presidential election speaks volumes. Iranian freedom fighters could use some moral support, but we’re trapped in our own “tough diplomacy.”
    http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=329958055807745

    U.S. could yield on settlement freeze, says government source
    The U.S. administration is prepared to show flexibility on construction in West Bank settlements, a government source in Jerusalem says. The Americans will apparently not demand a full freeze on construction, but will agree that projects now underway can be completed, Israeli officials say.
    http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093219.html

    Worker ID cards expected to stir up immigration debate
    Sen. Charles Schumer supports a worker ID card for all Americans. Business groups warm up to the idea, but labor activists and the ACLU have concerns.
    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-worker-id16-2009jun16,0,2060518.story

    Emerging Economic Powers Meet in Russia
    MOSCOW — Leaders of some of the world’s most powerful economies gathered Tuesday to plot how they can exert more control over the global financial system as it takes its first wobbly steps toward recovery. Yet not an American or Western European will be in the bunch. The first summit meeting of the so-called BRIC group — Brazil, Russia, India and China — is intended to underscore the rising economic clout of these four major developing countries and their demand for a greater voice in the world. And Russia, the group’s host and ideological provocateur, is especially interested in using the summit to fire a shot across Washington’s bow.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/europe/17bric.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print

23. Kevin Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 10:01 am

    20. Nah. I don’t know why so many people think Warner has a shot (in an open election or against a Republican incumbent). He’d be one of the ugliest Presidents ever, and he’s too centrist for the position, and not charismatic enough.

    I still think the biggest favorite for 2016 is Hillary Clinton.
    As for Biden, Democrats would not nominate a 73 year old – one who would turn 74 before the inauguration.

24. Michael Bindner Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 11:56 am

    The missing tabulation is party ID. How many people call themselves
    Republican, Independent and Democrat.

25. Michael Bindner Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    23. someone needs to give Senator Warner a bag of sliders with Mayo and
    make sure he eats them. After about a month we can take him off of anorexia
    watch.

26. Dave Says:
    June 16th, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    All this shows is that once people get used to a label, they stick with it. William F. Buckley would undoubtedly still think of himself as a Conservative, despite voting for Obama.