Alex and Richard make some astute points with their analysis of swing voters. Both parties do lay claim to roughly 40% of the electorate with the remaining 20% deciding the outcome of our national elections. In a sense, both men are correct and incorrect with their descriptions of these voters and the direction the GOP should take to earn their vote. I disagree with both gentleman is on the political leanings and intelligence of these voters.
I share Alex Knepper’s frustration that many of these uninformed voters decide our elections and direction of our country, but I also agree with Richard’s suggestion that we must exploit Obama’s theories on economic and social collectivization. Those of us white males in the ‘majority’ dislike quotas, judicial activism and race-based employment equity.
The largest untapped voter base are pragmatic, white, baby-boomer males. Very few of them vote, but when they do, it is usually for a Republican in the form of a protest vote. This untapped voter group is discouraged when they see minority students accepted into post-secondary institutions (strictly based on ethnicity or sex), while their own children are denied entry, even when they have a higher GPA. These men are usually the primary or largest source of income for their families and expect our political leaders to administer the government similar to a household, by keeping its spending under control and taxation rates low.
The Republican Party wins elections when they engage and motivate these voters. It is usually successful when they combine both the fronting of wedge issues (Richard) and taking a common-sense approach to policy (Alex).
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Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.
May 28th, 2009 at 10:17 am
Kristofer, you talk of these pragmatic right-of-center white males. Don’t you think that these people are already passive GOP voters? By that I mean they vote primarily for GOP candidates in major (even year) elections, but don’t give time or money to any political candidates?
May 28th, 2009 at 10:24 am
this is an interesting story about who swing voters are, but what’s the evidence that underlies the analysis? are there polls, surveys, election results indicating that nonvoting and infrequently voting independents are right-leaning and mostly motivated by issues like racial preferences or judicial overreach?
May 28th, 2009 at 10:32 am
eric,
yes, but increasingly they no longer vote and regisdtwer as indy’s.
–
otherwise,
yes, the drop in voter turnout is mostly made up of these voters.
May 28th, 2009 at 10:39 am
3 – but my question isn’t “what is your explanation about who those voters are” but rather “what is the evidence that underlies this theory.” i don’t necessarily disagree with you, but is the source of this explanation anecdotal, based on polling, inferred from election results?
May 28th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Peter Wehner: Challenge, With Civility
Krauthammer: Sotomayor Pick About “Identity Politics” And Empathy
Chris Cillizza’s White House Cheat Sheet: Five Senators to Watch on Sotomayor
Sen. Grassley: Sotomayor Will Be Confirmed
Senate Republicans Won’t Fight Sotomayor
Win What?
Just as the country got a tutorial on Guantanamo they are going to get one on judicial activism. And there I think the legal conservatives’ chances are quite strong.
by Jennifer Rubin
Sotomayor had key role in Lewis Mills free speech case
President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill a Supreme Court vacancy was one of a trio of appeals judges who last year rejected the First Amendment claim of a Burlington student penalized by school administrators for using foul langauge in a blog she wrote at home. Some observers said Wednesday the case presents a solid rationale for rejecting Judge Sonia Sotomayor of New York’s Second Circuit Court of Appeals to fill the seat of retiring Justice David Souter.
Despite Obama’s optimism, economic outlook remains grim
“Only a small part” of the nation’s $787 billion economic stimulus had been spent through the end of last month, according to congressional analysts, despite the Obama administration’s boasts Wednesday that the plan is a big success.
Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid of the Obama Administration’s Scary Trial Balloon
In today’s Washington Post, the White House floats a really scary trial balloon—a new national Value-Added Tax (VAT) to pay for out-of-control spending and a Washington take over of health care.
Is Obama closing GOP car dealers?
Cheney: Powell Is Welcome In GOP
May 28th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Gallup: Positive Initial Reaction to Sotomayor Nomination
Americans believe intellect, experience most important in Obama’s choice
Americans’ first reactions to the news of President Obama’s nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court are decidedly more positive than negative, with 47% rating the nomination as “excellent” or “good,” 20% rating it “only fair,” and 13% rating it “poor.”
May 28th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney backs Chris Christie in Haddonfield stop
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/05/haddonfield_republican_chris_c.html
May 28th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
#4, sorry, I now understand.
Exit polling from the last 30 years has shown a drop in voting numbers for white males. Women now make up a majority of voters. I believe Reagan was the last Presidential candidate to draw out white, male voters.
There was an increase in the 2008 elections, but most of that was under 35 voters.
As well, white males are registering as indy’s at higher rates then women.
May 28th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
8 – ok, i see. especially with independent registration, although i think that’s just growing in general relative to the two parties.
though, looking at the last 30 years, it’s also important to note that the country is just getting a little less white, and that racial minority groups’ participation is increasing so it’s more reflective of their actual population #s. if you’re saying “the % of people voting who are white males is decreasing,” it’s important to look at the absolute numbers – it may be less “white men who used to show up aren’t anymore” and more “the number of white men is slightly smaller relative to the overall voting population.” after all, the country was 83% white in 1980, 80% white in 2000 and probably a little less so now.
from the exit poll #s i’ve seen, the 2004 electorate was 77% white, while the 2008 electorate was 74% white – but the voter turnout was also almost 11 million higher in 2008 then 2004. so there were 94 million white voters in 2004 (77% times about 122 million), and more than 98 million white voters in 2008 (74% times about 133 million). so the actual number of white voters didn’t drop. also the exit polls showed that the 2008 electorate was 47% male compared to 46% male in 2004.
also, looking at the 2006 exit polls – when voter turnout is smaller and you lost what are called “drop-off voters” – the population of voters then was 79% white and 49% male. that doesn’t indicate to me that white males are getting more likely to be rare or uninvolved voters.
i don’t disagree with your description of what a certain swing voting block looks like, but i definitely think the theory that white men are dropping out as voters isn’t supported by the math. the reason that the % of voters who are white males is different now than it was when reagan was president is mostly just because the country is less white overall.
May 28th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
This is rich: The anti-intellectual party accuses the very voters they most need as being unintelligent. As for those dumb Democrats, don’t look know but they’ve been kicking your butts.
May 28th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
I think Alex is right that swing voters are very uninformed, where I think he’s wrong is in assuming that people who choose just one party are much smarter on the issues. Many people vote for their party of choice because it was Daddy’s party are some equally irrelevant reason. Even the partisan activists, often don’t go much deeper than spewing forth talking show style talking points as their reasons for voting for one party or another. Of course as other folks have pointed out there’s plenty of swing voters who have a political philosophy, at least as much as one party voters have, but not one that doesn’t fit well into the political parties. If anything that shows more intelligence, considering that don’t get their views like some package from the DNC or RNC.