We’ve talked about a lot of races here at R4’12, and in the absence of an active presidential primary we’ve dwelt on a lot of Senate contests. However, we very rarely talk about one of the best potential pickups for the GOP in 2010: Michael Bennet’s seat in Colorado. Bennet, you may recall, was the Denver school superintendent appointed to serve out the term of now-Secretary Ken Salazar – and he has absolutely tanked in the polls.
While he does stand a chance, Bennet has extreme difficulty polling above 45% in any matchup, and loses to credible Republicans when polled against them. However, while I was back in Colorado last week for my little sister’s graduation, I was appalled to find that the local GOP is overly fixated on the upcoming gubernatorial race, and that the highly vulnerable Bennet may keep his seat simply because the Republicans can’t find a credible challenger. Up to now, only two candidates have entered our primary – and both poll behind Bennet (keep in mind that Bob Beauprez , who got positively squished by Bill Ritter when he ran for governor, polls slightly ahead of Bennet if he were to run).
In one corner, we have Ken Buck – the ultra-conservative D.A. from Weld County. He seems nice – but he is unknown and lacking in charisma. His campaign, up to now, has been a comedy of errors, and while I have nothing against him – he’s not going to win. In the opposite corner is the Ryan Frazier – a young city councilman from the Denver suburb of Aurora. He has the benefit of being young, charismatic, and black – drawing lots of Obama comparisons – but he simply lacks the gravitas to pull this off. Furthermore, he has a reputation as either “very moderate” or libertarian (depending on who you talk to) making it harder to play to the primary electorate out West. Let us remember that Obama, who at least managed to get into the State Senate before going national, only got his Senate seat because of the implosion of his opponents in both the primary and the general election – and Frazier will not be so lucky. He has potential, but he is not even close to ready.
So, we have a dilemma. Neither of the current candidates can win, and almost nobody else wants in. RNC Committeeman Mark Hillman took a pass, and State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry is leaning toward a run for Governor instead. I personally don’t like the idea of handing the seat to Bennet without a fight – so the only choice we have is to start thinking outside the box and looking for other willing, electable candidates. This brings me to the man I think we should be begging to get in the race. Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like you to meet Major General Bentley Rayburn, U.S. Air Force (Retired).
The general burst onto the scene in 2006, when he made a run for Congress in the state’s fifth district. Despite an absurdly late entry into the primary and a total lack of name recognition, Rayburn shocked everyone by coming third in a crowded six-man primary – besting the sitting mayor Colorado Springs, who came fourth. In my opinion, Rayburn only lost because he was still busy commanding troops while the top two candidates had been building massive local organizations. Personally, I thought he was a joke when he got into that race – but nobody was laughing when he pulled 17% of the vote in an election where the winner (Doug Lamborn) only got about 29%. After that race, I got to know the general personally, and I came to realize that he was the real deal – a solid leader, an honorable man, and the type of no-nonsense guy we need in Washington. The top three candidates from the 2006 race (Rayburn, Lamborn, and talk show host Jeff Crank) quickly started moving toward a primary rematch in 2008, and I knew immediately that General Rayburn was my guy (I had previously supported sixth-place Duncan Bremer, brother of L. Paul Bremer – and for the record I wouldn’t mind seeing Duncan back in politics either).
While Rayburn came third again in the 2008 primary, he improved his vote share to 26% (just 3% short of second place) and picked up a number of high profile endorsements – including Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera. He may not have made it to Congress, but after only two years in politics, Bentley Rayburn had clearly established himself as a force to be reckoned with.
The general’s name was floated for the Senate in 2008, and he has drawn a few mentions for the next cycle, but not many. However, with several leading contenders bowing out and only Buck and Frazier in the race, I would hope that we start talking about him. Seriously, if you had the choice between a rural D.A., a suburban city councilman, or a two-star general who used to be Commandant of the Air War College – who would you pick?
Bentley’s conservative credentials are impeccable on both the fiscal, social, and national security fronts – and he has an extremely tight grasp of both foreign and domestic policy. The only thing that might hold him back is that a lot of the state GOP leadership supported Jeff Crank in the 2008 congressional race, and Mr. Crank has vocally blamed General Rayburn for the fact that he is not in Congress today (an absurd claim, as Doug Lamborn finished way ahead of Crank in the 2008 primary with 45% – and a high number of Rayburn supporters preferred Lamborn over Crank anyway). Either way, when it comes to getting rid of Senator Bennet, I would hope that we can bury the proverbial hatchet and just put a good candidate in the race.
Bentley Rayburn has the experience, the gravitas, and the charisma to take down Michael Bennet – and there is no good reason why the National Republican Senatorial Committee should not be pounding down his door and throwing money at him.
Am I crazy for suggesting this? Maybe – but I’d like to hear from anyone who thinks they have a better idea. And no, “let’s take our chances with Buck and/or Frasier” does not qualify as a “better idea”. I don’t want a questionable candidate who will have trouble taking down one of America’s most vulnerable Senators – I want someone who can pound Michael Bennet into the ground without breaking a sweat. In my opinion, if he were to win the nomination, General Rayburn could do just that.
2008 Rayburn for Congress TV Ad:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgYLAH5csMs[/youtube]
If you don’t think this guy is marketable – you are out of your mind.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Adam is spot on here. It is just crazy that one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats is apparently going to get a pass in 2010. Hopefully, someone in the CO GOP or the NRSC will get someone that can win this race.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Republicans Adopt Emanuel’s Tactics to Deliver 2010 ‘Thumpin”
Republicans are getting inspiration on how to rebuild their party in the U.S. Congress from an unlikely source: White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. California Representative Kevin McCarthy, the chief recruiter for House Republicans, said he wants his party to select candidates based less on ideology and more on their chances of winning. The goal, he said, is to seek out prospects who are ethnically diverse, female, less partisan and even supportive of abortion rights.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aB2p31qRJH6k&refer=politics
May 14th, 2009 at 11:52 am
GOP recruiters tilt toward center in 2010 races
Outreach to more moderate candidates angering many in conservative base
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30744173/
Yes, it’s that bad for the GOP
Debates inside the party highlight the real problem: What is their vision?
by Chuck Todd
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30745624/
Democrats Uneasy Over National Security Policy
Congressional Democrats are voicing growing unease over the Obama administration’s national security policies, including the seemingly open-ended commitment in Afghanistan and the nettlesome question of what to do with prisoners held at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/us/politics/14cong.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print
May 14th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Kavon or Aron,
New Missouri poll:
Carnahan 53%
Blunt 44%
Carnahan 54%
Steelman 42%
http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Analysis
“The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. A new Democracy Corps survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent.[1]
After voters hear profiles of each candidate, Carnahan maintains a 7-point advantage over Steelman and a 9-point advantage over Blunt. After attacks on each candidate, Carnahan remains above 50 percent against both Republicans, and leads Blunt by 7 and Steelman by 6. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.
President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally)[2] and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.
While the strength of the candidates will be critical, the senate campaign will also take place amidst pitched battles on President Obama’s top priorities – the economy, health care and energy. Voters divide evenly on the economic debate and the health care debate, while giving the President’s position an 18-point advantage on energy.”
May 14th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Right on, Adam. This guy looks great. That is some ad! I love the closer.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Rand Paul will announce to night on the Rachael Maddow show.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
John Elway
May 14th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I’ve seen Ryan Frazier do a few interviews, and I have to say, he is very Obama-like in his demeanor. I mean that in a nice way.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
5)
Yeah – he likes that line a lot.
6)
Oy vey….
7)
We’ve tried to talk him into running in every Senatorial and Gubernatorial race for almost a decade – not gonna happen.
8 )
I didn’t say Frazier didn’t have potential – but I think he would get stomped against Bennet due to his lack of experience (State Rep. I can live with, but City Council in a suburb?). Give him a few years, make him an RNC Committeeman or something (though I realize the opportunities are limited for someone from a deep-blue area of the state). If he pans out, we run him in a few years when he’s actually a credible candidate.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I probably agree with you Adam, I can’t think of too many city councilmen who have made the leap to US Senator. And the guy’s only 31 years old, which means he barely even reaches the age requirement for the Senate.
May 14th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
10)
Yeah – there’s nowhere to go but up for Frazier, but if he shoots to high too early, things will go badly. I think his decision to run may have been motivated by the fact that he is from a very Democratic part of the state and is not likely to win at the Congressional or State Legislature level. Plus – he does have a lot of fans in the state GOP. But, there are other potential options. I mentioned the RNC, maybe he could go for State GOP chair depending on how long the incumbent sticks around, or he could run for State Treasurer or something. Or, since he’s such a great speaker – it might not be hard from him to get a big local talk show in the Denver area.
All of those ideas are, in my opinion, smarter than trying to leap directly from the Aurora City Council to the U.S. Senate.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
It’s hard to see how running third in congressional primaries twice indicates that a guy is a strong senate candidate.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Adam,
You are right. General Rayburn would be an excellent Senator and who would likely find himself in Senate leadership. The only problem is, most of these guys, including Rayburn’s opponents in 2006 and 2008 were here schmoozing party officials for years prior to getting in the race, a luxury Rayburn didn’t have while commanding an Air Force base in the Middle East or as Commandant of the Air War College. Unfortunately in Colorado Republican politics, merit, experience, gravitas, etc. is not always a prerequisite for getting the nod from the higher-up Party folk. They often prefer people who have dedicated their time to Republican fundraisers, auctions, hob-nobbing, etc. over some guy who was too busy serving his country to court Party leader’s support. Could Colorado find a better person to represent us in the Senate? Nope. Unfortunately, in Colorado most find success in politics by being politicians, not statesmen.
May 14th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
“It’s hard to see how running third in congressional primaries twice indicates that a guy is a strong senate candidate.”
He significantly overperformed expectations in both races – and the primary field in this Senate race is actually MUCH WEAKER. In two man general election – Bentley is a strong candidate. His campaigns were great – but they had to be run without the local bigwigs’ help. In an easier race with more backing – Rayburn wins big.
May 14th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
The time for Bentley Rayburn to run statewide was 2008 before he became known as a spoiler. His strategic and political instincts are flawed. Major General Rayburn never bought a house in Congressional district nor did he pay property taxes in the district he wanted to represent. The baggage he collected in the 2006 and 2008 CD5 Congressional Primary will be hard to unload in a 2010 high profile Senate Primary…most notably the endorsement by Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera who is facing calls to resign. The 2010 Colorado Republican Senate field is likely not set but Bentley Rayburn should not be considered a viable candidate at this time.
May 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Mr. Davis,
Let me guess…Jeff Crank is your pick to run for Senate? Is Crank even considering running? Think about it, if Rayburn runs for Senate, your guy can have his one on one with Lamborn. By the way, the whole home buying property tax thing is silly talk. Land ownership is not a requirement to run for office and last time I rented a house my landlord used part of that rent to pay the property taxes for the house I lived in. This Crank property-tax-house-buying-campaign-line is tired now.
May 14th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
See – this is what I’m talking about. I made a comment about Rayburn in a race which does not include Jeff Crank, and already I have Jeff Crank people down my throat. Can we please just drop it already?
This is not about Jeff Crank, Doug Lamborn, or even Bentley Rayburn – all I want is to get rid of Michael Bennet. Like I said – if you’ve got a better idea, let’s hear it.
May 14th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
better ideas…Ryan Frazier, Ken Buck, Bob Beauprez, Dan Caplis, Brian Watson, Bill Owens, Josh Penry, Tom Wiens, Cleve Tidwell, Mark Hillman, Jeff Crank, Mike Coffman, Scott Tipton, Wil Armstrong, JJ Ament, Walker Stapleton, Bruce Benson, Cory Gardner, Dick Wadhams, Scott McInnis….All better than Bentley Rayburn for Senate in 2010.
Not paying taxes may not be a requirement to run for office but its a hard fact to explain to voters. These are type of questions BR would face in a competitive statewide Primary. If his supporters have difficulty reading it on the Townhall blog they are certainly going to have a hard time reading it on the front page of the Denver Post.
May 14th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Read more about Major General Rayburn in the Colorado Statesman: http://www.coloradostatesman.com/content/rayburn-loses-gop-gamble
May 14th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Read more about why the people who conducted the poll cited by Commenter #19 said that their own poll was too flawed to count:
http://coloradopols.com/diary/6507/
I am going to repeat this for the last time:
THE 2008 PRMIARY IN CD-5 IS OVER AND JEFF CRANK IS NOT RUNNING FOR SENATE
May 14th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Bentley Rayburn would be a liability for the Party as a Senate candidate in 2010. The 2008 Primary may be over but the damage done to BR in that Primary is lasting. It defined Bentley Rayburn as a politician. That fact you can’t wish away. Only time will shade it.
Be sure to tune into KVOR on Saturday at 8 a.m. to hear the Jeff Crank show….http://www.kvor.com/goout.asp?u=http://thejeffcrankshow.blogspot.com.
May 14th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
You can really feel the love for a Rayburn run on the colorado blogs.
http://rockymountainright.com/?q=node/640
I realize that Rayburn has a small but devoted following but the reality of the matter is that he not only ran a losing primary campaign twice, but really turned off his rivals’ supporters in the process. He wouldn’t even carry Colorado Springs in a primary, much less anywhere else in the state. You’re also vastly overstating the supposed weaknesses of Ryan Frazier and Ken Buck, they’re both consolidating support pretty quickly and it’s pretty absurd to suggest that Rayburn would be able to sweep them out of the way. At this point, even a well know politician like Mark Hillman or John Suthers would have a hard time getting either one of them out of the way.
May 14th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
According to Mr. Davis, all of you freeloaders who rent a home or apartment don’t pay taxes. All you renter-folk-underlings have some explaining to do! To anyone with a minimal understanding of real estate and property taxes, Mr. Davis’ desperation is all the more apparent. Let me educate Mr. Davis and his Crank campaign talking point. When you lease real property (house, condo, apartment, retail, office, industrial space, etc., you pay rent to a landlord (property owner). The landlord then uses that rent to pay for taxes, insurance, debt service, repairs, etc. whatever is leftover is profit to the landlord. To say that someone doesn’t pay property taxes when they are renting is like saying you don’t pay for meat because you bought a hamburger. This is one of the lamest, saddest, most ignoramus arguments Crank was able to come up with in his campaign and his angry supporters are still talking about it. If you are a Crank supporter, go ahead continue to support Crank in his chiropractic lobbying and radio career and if he runs again, keep supporting him, but please use real issues and real arguments to rant against Rayburn if you feel the need to continue the 2008 campaign. This crazy stuff about not paying taxes is not only incorrect it is foolish and not based on anything real. I guess you can make-believe that Bentley doesn’t pay taxes, but presenting it as anything other than fiction is dishonest.
May 14th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Adam,
Just out of curiosity, have you (or do you know of anyone else who has) asked Gen. Rayburn if he would be interested in running? This sounds like a great possibility. I’d say, send this article along to him and ask him to give it a whirl.
May 14th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
Armin)
I did not say that Buck and Frazier weren’t consolidating support – they are and that’s what scares me! I didn’t say they couldn’t win a primary – I said that neither has a good shot a beating Bennet. Situations like this are what the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is for – finding electable people, talking them into running, and helping them win.
Furthermore – I do not know many Lamborn people that Rayburn alienated. I do know a lot of Crank people who blame him for their own loss – but Crank won only 29% in of the 5th District votes in ’08. This leaves a 71% pool of voters in my opinion. Furthermore, this race is not being held in the 5th district, meaning that the hissy fit being thrown by Jeff Crank supporters will only impact roughly one seventh of the voters (assuming a somewhat even split among Congressional districts – although that’s not entirely accurate).
Listen – I’m not saying it wouldn’t be a tough Primary – but when you compare Rayburn’s resume to Buck’s or Frazier’s – there is simply no comparison. If he were to be the nominee, I think he would have a good shot at winning in an electorate that is not poisoned by old 5th District vendettas.
May 14th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
I am curious…these Crank supporters who seem to jump on any mention of Bentley doing anything other than buying a home and paying property taxes directly, what is it that they fear if Rayburn were to run for Senate. First of all, I don’t think Rayburn has ever said he is running, but why do several of those commenting on this post think it would be such a bad thing. I voted for Crank in both primaries, based mostly on his endorsement from the El Paso GOP, but assuming Jeff Crank weren’t running for Senate, I would give my support to General Rayburn without hesitation. I do know several of Crank’s supporters are upset with General Rayburn because of how things turned out for our candidate, but if Rayburn has a better shot in the general election why not put 2008 behind us and try to win back this state? I know a lot of people who voted for Crank who would support Rayburn. 2008 is over, let’s look forward.
May 14th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Harrison -
Thank you for the much-needed dose of sanity.
May 15th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
This is absolute crazy talk. I was not a Crank guy, but to insinuate that just because Patrick Davis says Rayburn would not be a good candidate is because he is bitter about a past primary is rather ridiculous. If the shoe were on the other foot and we still held the seat would we mock the Dems for nominating Fitzgerald, Peggy Lamm or Mike Miles as their Senate nomine? Yes, of course we would. Both Buck and Frazier are great candidates with the ability to bring in unaffiliated voters.
May 15th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
NO ONE shopped Rayburn for U.S. Senate. The Major General promoted himself as a U.S. Senate candidate – both for the 2010 race and before he settled on a second bid for 5th CD in 2008. Not only did the GOP Brass balk at Rayburn’s leapin-lizard ambiton, Mike Hesse, his former campaign manager, advised the Major General NOT to run for any statewide office. Hesse told Rayburn to run for either a legislative seat or a local goverment office. Perhaps Rayburn left too much carnage in the wake of his bloodly battles in CD5 – and a reputation of dishonor.
May 15th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I find it interesting that Adam Brickley is promoting Bentley Rayburn. In the 2006 5th CD primary, Brickley supported Duncan Bremer. Bremer supported Jeff Crank in his 2008 run.
May 15th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
What’s John Elway doing nowadays?
May 16th, 2009 at 9:02 am
I was going to stay out of this, but I have to say a few words on the piece of work that is Patrick Davis… First of all Mr. Davis, you posts hinge on irrationality in the sense that you are completely blinded by your personal hatred for Bentley Rayburn. I don’t completely understand this since had Bentley been absent from ’08 CD-5 contest, your boy Crank would still have lost badly (newsflash for you: Bentley’s votes would have gone to Lamborn for the most part not Crank).
Frankly, Bentley is a class act all the way around and has continued to work hard for the Party and community, while Crank has been out working hard to promote his wing-nut radio show (nice plug earlier btw). Bentley doesn’t have a bitter bone in his body, but apparently Crank and Co. are rotting from the inside out with contempt (FEC filing against Bentley and HBA, for a poll that was improperly conducted and yet still expected to be valid by the Crank team).
Grow up Davis, you should have other things to do with your time besides slam Rayburn every chance you get…you know, like focus on your county commissioner bid. Haha, talk about a bat’s chance in hell. You’d be better off forgetting a political career and resign yourself to being the “before” model in male pattern baldness commercials.
May 16th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Hello Josh,
It’s Patrick Davis here. The Colorado Statesman made a mistake in reporting that I am running for County Commission. It is Patrick Carter that Leslie Jorgensen was referring to in that story you read. I am not a candidate for County Commission.
Steve is correct about Elway. He should be on a list for Senate also.
Isn’t it fun to be in the arena?
regarding the balding crack…Men who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stone. Stick to the issues and maybe you will succeed in politics.
This post was really disappointing to me since I considered you to be a man of high moral charachter. Apparantly you haven’t learned that discretion is the better part of valor.
Good luck in your next campaign.
Patrick Davis
May 16th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Patrick,
Granted, the bald crack was out of line, and for that I apologize. However, before you lecture me on the finer points of moral character and discretion, let me take a moment to fondly recall the good times we had on the campaign trail in the last cycle…
-the time you attacked General Rayburn for his years spent serving our country (not paying property taxes in CO while he was stationed abroad.)
-the time you spread lies about Bentley having a big ego (all for challenging Crank and having the gall to think he was the right man for the job.)
-the time you said Rayburn is a lazy campaigner (oh wait that happened just recently).
-the time when you attacked Bentley’s personal character and integrity for refusing to adhere to a poll’s results when the contract was void after the terms of how the poll would be conducted were violated.
Ah, good times. I’m by no means perfect and have my fair share of character flaws, but at least I can say that I’ve never dishonestly slandered a man for personal political gain, or been blinded by shear hatred. I wish you all the best.
-Josh Green
May 16th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
To add to this, I believe that you believed everything you said against Bentley to be true and right. I don’t believe you intentionally said anything dishonest, and neither did I against Crank or anyone else. We will just have to agree to disagree on our assesments of the CD-5 contest.
August 26th, 2009 at 8:42 am
[...] with this mess is that I know for a fact that Colorado is loaded with better options. I’ve already suggested Major General Bentley Rayburn(who would have a tough primary race, but the best chance of resonating), and there are others as [...]