Partly motivated by desperation, partly by revenge, it appears as if the Republican Party heirarchy is preparing to rally around Tom Ridge for the 2010 PA Senate election.
We are twelve and a half months away from the primary, but already the establishment is rallying around Tom Ridge and developing a negative theme against Pat Toomey’s candidacy. The slick DC Pols have begun their campaign in support of Ridge by distributing talking points (subtly and non-subtly) to the media in no less than 24 hours after the defection of Senator Specter. Lindsay Graham came out in support of Tom Ridge within hours of the Specter announcement.
David Frum attacks Toomey, supports Ridge;
It was another such intra-party challenge—this time by conservative Pat Toomey—that drove Arlen Specter out of the Republican caucus.
Hatch attacks Toomey, Cornyn backs away from Toomey;
“I don’t think there is anybody in the world who believes he can get elected senator there,” – Senator Hatch
NRSC to abandon Toomey for another candidate (Ridge);
The NRSC offered no comment today when I asked them to clarify the Chairman’s stance on Toomey’s campaign.
Will state GOP get Ridge to run?;
“Now the question is, how much do they hate Arlen Specter? Do they want to drive a stake in Arlen’s heart? They know they can’t do that with Pat Toomey,”
After hearing that Specter had switched parties, Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Robert Gleason said his first call was going to be to Tom Ridge.
Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and twitter/Kris_Lorelli.
April 30th, 2009 at 11:49 am
I joined the Draft Ridge Facebook group last night.
Ridge 2010!
April 30th, 2009 at 11:49 am
I like Ridge.
All I care about is having FISCAL conservatives in our party. Once again, we aren’t going to win on the most controversial social issues.
Let’s elect FISCAL conservatives. It is the southern sect of the GOP that has forced us into the social movement.
April 30th, 2009 at 11:59 am
You are free to leave the movement MVRed.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
BTW, at the end of the day, PA Republicans will decide the best choice, but Alex, I am glad you picked a Republican candidate.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
I’m open to this idea – but I want to see polling data before we decide to throw Toomey under the bus.
It’s kind of counter-intuitive, but I think there’s a chance that Toomey actually does better. Toomey provides a clearer contrast to Specter (although Ridge is clearly to Arlen’s right) and he has an economic focus (a plus if things keep going south). Plus, there are two elements necessary to win – we have to both poach moderate voters AND ensure very high turnout among Republicans. Ridge might have the edge with the moderates – but I think we would have a stronger GOTV if the race was an apocalyptic Toomey-Specter grudge match.
I’m not saying Toomey would definitely be the stronger candidate over Ridge, but I think there’s a legit chance that he could be in better position. So, I don’t want to elbow Mr. Toomey off the stage just yet. At this point, it has to be all about strategy, and we can’t throw Toomey under the bus just because a few people blame him for the Specter defection. There is a very real chance that the best strategic move is to keep Ridge out and close ranks around Toomey now (especially if Joe Sestak challenges Specter).
Not saying Ridge is a bad idea – but this is definitely in the “proceed with caution” category.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I like both candidates.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
6)
Agreed. Actually, the thing I really fear is a bloddy primary between Toomey and Ridge. I think they need to decide who “the guy” will be within the next few months and then clear the field. If it’s Toomey, great, and we proceed as normal. If it’s Ridge, however, then there is going to have to be SERIOUS pressure on Toomey to get out of the race. It’s going to have to be phrased as “Which is more important to you, taking down Specter or continuing this campaign?”
The one thing we do not need is Toomey and Ridge roughing each other up while Specter sits pretty.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
MVRed, Bobby Jindal, Mark Sanford, and Jeb Bush are all Southern governors. The South is very fiscally conservative, probably moreso than any other region.
Anyways, Ridge will connect a thousand times better with the voters. Toomey was an investment banker and leader of the Club for Growth. That’s not exactly a good record to have to drum up popular support. Ridge on the other hand is a great fit for Pennsylvania, and he could probably chase Arlen out of the seat.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
#5
Spot on, Adam. The whole situation from Spectre’s defection to this is actually kind of amusing to watch. I think we have a very good chance of winning that seat back in 2010.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
I love Ridge and don’t like Toomey a bit because of the way he and CFG punked Huck, but the DC insiders stabbing Toomey in the back is making me sympathetic toward him.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
7)
Agreed. I still expect a challenge to Specter in his primary…the far left feel very emboldened these days.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
“I’m open to this idea – but I want to see polling data before we decide to throw Toomey under the bus.
” Apart from the fact that none of us are from PA, (although, I’m next door) let’s see the lay of the land before we jump on a train. We need to know the Pros and Cons first.
“The South is very fiscally conservative, probably moreso than any other region.” That is certainly the case in the 21st century.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
#11,
Yes, Kris. Obama’s promise to support Spectre in PA next year has the same weight and validity as all the rest of Obama’s promises.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
“Agreed. I still expect a challenge to Specter in his primary…the far left feel very emboldened these days.
” Haha, all we need now is for the Libertarians to have a primary and we’ll all have fun.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
I’d take either of them in the Senate but this seems pretty shallow of the GOP establishment.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
I like both candidates, but I like Toomey better. First he is not the establishment candidate. It really disgusts me that Good Old Boy (read establishment) Hatch is attacking Toomey. If I lived in PA I would back Toomey over Ridge just for that. Secondly, Toomey is a hero for knocking out Specter. It comes off as extremely opportunistic, and frankly the embodiment of so much of what is wrong and repulsive about the GOP right now, that the establishment wants to attack Toomey for his SUCCESS and then replace him with one of their own. “Here Mr. Toomey, you did all the hard work, now get out of our way, you loser, so that we can have that seat.”
I agree, though, that it would be bad for this to go to a primary and I hope that the PA republicans broker some deal before then.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
“If I lived in PA I would back Toomey over Ridge just for that.” Agreed, but I will hold off on actually donated for now until perhaps, PA itself sorts it out. I just hope that it is not a nasty contest. Mr. Ridge has certainly been a loyal Republican, but Mr. Toomey can energize the base easier, so in a way it is difficult to say what is best.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Ridge was more popular than Rendell currently is. Do I disagree with Ridge on some social issues? YES, but he still was fiscally strong would champion for less spending and less taxes.
Abortion will not be decided in Congress if Roe v. Wade were overturned.
Gay Marriage will not be decided in Congress.
Each are state issues. Let’s worry about stopping the US Bankruptcy by the Dems!
April 30th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
I’m disappointed in Senator Hatch. I want to win the seat back, so either one is fine, but I’d rather have Toomey.
April 30th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Honestly? I’d rather have Toomey, too. But he CAN’T WIN.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Like I said, I like both guys. And like Ohio I will wait to donate until after we see how the cards fall.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Well either way, whether it be Ridge or Toomey, there will be a Roman Catholic Republican Senator from Pennsylvania come 2010 because I think either one could win over Specter, but I believe Ridge would have a better chance IMO.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Is there a single poll that shows how Toomey would do statewide?
April 30th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Just what we need. Let’s beat down the favorability ratings of the guy who will probably win the nomination.
Why are they so quick to take sides, and in such an asinine manner? I’d take either Toomey or Ridge, but they are going to need every vote to win this one, and they aren’t going to get it by beating down Toomey.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
“Honestly? I’d rather have Toomey, too. But he CAN’T WIN.”
Proof? That’s like saying the Tampa Bay Rays would never win the AL East(let alone make it to the World Series)
April 30th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
I live in PA. I don’t know if Toomey can win the state wide race, but I think Tom Ridge can. Furthermore, I really like Tom Ridge and think he would be a great President as well, but he probably can’t win a primary for that with his non prolife stance (even though he seems to support the restrictions people want).
April 30th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
25
As a Tampa area guy, love that comment! (although they’re stinking up the joint so far this season)
April 30th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Joe D. considering the state of the economy I doubt social issues would be a big factor in this primary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mitt Romney endorse Toomey for Senate.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
#27 No problem, the point of it was don’t count out anyone until the results are known.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Adam,
” Actually, the thing I really fear is a bloddy primary between Toomey and Ridge. I think they need to decide who “the guy” will be within the next few months and then clear the field.”
There is merit there, but ideally, we would have a civilized primary without bloodshed and let the voters decide. I’m not a big fan of party bosses and insider deals. Granted, that would be better than a death match, but why can’t we just have a civilized primary and let the best candidate win?
April 30th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
The Repubs select Ridge, eh? Well just maybe the PEOPLE choose TOOMEY. Vote TOOMEY.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Liz,
Got your motto:
Metoo 4 Toomey.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
All of This Has Happened Before . . .
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTkwNjA0MWZjYzUzMDJmM2MzOTllN2JlYmE3OTczM2U=
Look, there’s a lot of evidence that Pat Toomey is way too conservative for the seat he’s running for, and just doesn’t have a chance to win.
Stuart Rothenberg writes, “Republicans should be concerned about Toomey’s ability to hold together the GOP coalition, as well as whether he can appeal to blue-collar voters.”
The Wall Street Journal followed him on the campaign trail and noticed the lack of response, writing, “A few people accept his brochure at the door; at other homes, there’s no response at all.”
Of all the top campaign watchers — Roll Call, Campaigns and Elections — nobody favors him to win.
The Boston Globe called him “an Allentown restaurateur whom the pros don’t take seriously.” The New York Times notes that the opposition has galvanized “more than 40,000 telephone calls through paid and volunteer efforts.”
Oh, wait, all of those quotes are about his 1998 race for the open House seat in Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, which he won, 55 percent to 45 percent.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Ridge at least gives us a shot. Go Ridge!
April 30th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Pennsylvania as a whole is further left than the 15th congressional district.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Dude, PA as a whole is further left than in 1998.
That said, both Toomey and Ridge have a record of attracting blue-collar voters, essentailly during the same time periods.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Also true. Ridge has more crossover appeal. That’s undeniable. And we need that in a state where Dems outnumber Republicas by 1.2M.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
For those that say Toomey can’t win or that Ridge would do so much better – I’m not necessarily. Let’s just get some polling data before we leap to conclusions. I think there’s at least a 30% chance that Toomey actually does better than Ridge (I have no support for the percentage guess – but 87.6% of statistics are made up on the spot, right?).
So, nobody’s right or wrong – let’s just simmer down, take some polls and do this like adults. If Toomey can’t win – that will be reflected in polls. If Ridge is tremendously better, that will also be reflected in polls. Let’s just no go drafting people on electability arguments without backing up the electability claim (we all remember what happened to John Kerry – yeah, he was WAY more electable than Howard Dean. Not.)
April 30th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
oops…first sentence in #38 should have said “I don’t necessarily disagree”
April 30th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
33. One missing point from your 1998 story is that Ridge was running for re-election as Governor that year, as was Specter for Senate – all at the top of the ticket. Both had significant victories (Ridge shattering a record of percentage win by a GOP) and surely had coattails. This was also the last election cycle with Clinton in the White House and historically a second off-election cycle for the incumbent President is poor in opposite-party leaning districts. That all being said – Pat Toomey had a lot going in his favor, namely Ridge, Specter and the dynamics of 1998.
Ridge is a man of character that has proven results, not just a history of being outspoken as Toomey has. In the end, PA is still a winnable state for Republicans, but Ridge is the only candidate that can prove that true.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Judging by the past, Ridge has won statewide. He even won 57 percent of the vote in 1998. Toomey has never done that and he is not going to win the Philly burbs.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Maybe Ridge has crossover appeal. But you know who else has crossover appeal? Specter! He will get about 30% of the Republican vote in addition to all of the Democratic vote and win a landslide. I don’t think Ridge wants to end his career with a humiliating defeat. The Republican field will be clear for Toomey.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
#38:
Sadly enough, Kerry was more electable then Howard Dean. If Dean had been the Democrat nominee, 04 would have been a GOP landslide. Instead of a relatively narrow win, we would have had a blowout. Clark or Lieberman were the Democrats best choices in 04, but Kerry was much better then Dean from their point of view.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Plus, Ridge has name recognition. People who don’t follow politics (but still vote) don’t have any clue who Toomey is. Ridge has the name recognition that at least gives him a chance of beating Specter. And SM, Specter is not going to get 30 percent of the GOP vote this year.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
S-M-A-R-T
April 30th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Look here at Ridge’s electoral performance in Pennsylvania. In the great GOP year of 94 he won by almost 200,000 votes with the Constitution Party taking over 400,000. In 98, he won by over 800,000 votes with the Constitution Party still taking a significant percent. Also look at the counties Ridge won. He may not be as conservative as Toomey, but he can win
You have to search for it a bit but the results are here:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
April 30th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Where is the evidence that PA is trending left since ’98? Counties in the east are trending Democrat, but counties in the west are trending Republican. Heck, McCain won counties that Reagan failed to in ’84. Net-net it’s about the same, +2 Democrat, see Miller’s post on it under “FDR’s Gift.” Was Dole any closer than McCain?
April 30th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
I really, really doubt that Specter will get 30% of the GOP vote after switching parties.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
MWS,
That’s probably true. The problem is that the east is growing more quickly than the west, and Republicans are going to need someone with a history of winning in the east. Specter, being a Democrat, is going to have an easier time racking up vote totals there. Toomey won’t have a prayer. The GOP is going to win the west of the state. The only way that the party can win the election is to keep it as close as possible in the east. Ridge is much better equipped to do that.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
What if Rick Santorum wants to run again?
April 30th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Santorum will never again win an election.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Maybe if Ridge jumps in the Pennsylvania GOP establishment can talk Toomey into postponing his senate bid till 2012. Yes, that would mean running against an incumbent Democratic Senator rather than what will likely be an open seat (Specter will NOT be the Dem nominee). However, Toomey is very bullish about his chances in a general election, at least publicly, so it really shouldn’t matter. And for the realists out there, his nomination in 2012 wouldn’t squander a winnable seat (Casey isn’t going anywhere, no matter who the GOP nominates).
April 30th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
If Ridge wasn’t the second coming of John Wayne, I’d have an easier time mustering up outrage over his DC buddies dogging Toomey. Ridge is just nails, you can’t help but love that guy. Who do you want in a fox hole with you? Tom ‘bulldog warrior’ Ridge.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Also, one other thing to think about…
Those liberals in PA aren’t just going to wrap their arms around Specter and sing kumbaya. I wouldn’t be surprised if some rogue Democrat doesn’t try to primary Specter from the left.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Based on the results among Republicans in last month’s Quinnipiac poll, 25-30 percent does seem plausible. FWIW, in 2006, Joe Lieberman, despite leaving his party to run as an Independent, nevertheless pulled in 33 percent among Democrats in the general election against anti-war lib Ned Lamont.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Aron #55,
Completely different scenario. JoMo was running as an Independent Democrat. He did not switch parties and run as a Republican.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Arlen Specter, the Republican candidate, or for the Democratic candidate?
Specter 47%
Democrat 17%
But now Specter is the Democrat. So maybe 17% would be more in line with reality than 30% of republicans voting for him. Oh wait, that doesn’t take into account his treachery…
April 30th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Kavon,
Lieberman ran as an Independent. It wasn’t until after winning the general election that he said he wanted to be called an “Independent Democrat.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/12/ap/politics/mainD8LBMTI00.shtml
While he did not run as a Republican, Lieberman still received 70 percent of the Republican vote. GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger pulled in a paltry 21 percent from his own party.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
But Specter has angered Republicans in the state for decades. The Republicans that supported him in the past (aside from those that held their nose and voted for him) are very likely now Democrats. I have to believe that this party switcheroo is the final straw. We won’t know for sure until next year but I would be very surprised if Specter’s GOP support now in a general election is much higher than in the teens.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Aron,
That’s because Schlesinger was arguable the worst candidate in history; even worse than Keyes in Illinois. Republicans decided they would stick it to the Dems because their guy didn’t have a prayer.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
And yes, CT is not PA. Republicans had no prayer in that contest and they knew it.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
And look at the support he got last month from Dems prior to joining them:
April 30th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Schlesinger was sued twice by casinos for gambling debts (he gambled under an alias). Comparing that race to this is completely invalid. Schlesinger was a complete embarrassment to the party, and they tried to ignore him best they could. The Republicans won’t be putting up a guy like that in PA.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Supporting Specter for being “centrist” when he is from the opposite side of the aisle is a lot different than being enthused about him as one of your own.
Republicans loved Lieberman throughout 2007. If he was a Republican and held the exact same positions on a wide spectrum of issues, Republicans would have been far less supportive.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
That’s, for the most part, probably true. However, 25 percent of PA GOPers approved of Specter’s vote for Obama’s ‘stimulus’ package, suggesting the senator still has some like-minded allies in his former party.
April 30th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Here’s Jay Cost on Specter….read the whole article, Jay Cost is certainly rolling these days.
Is Arlen Specter Safe Now?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/04/is_arlen_specter_safe_now.html
“Regarding the title question, I’d answer it in the negative. First of all, I would not underestimate Pat Toomey. He won three terms in PA 15 (Allentown), whose presidential vote is basically a microcosm of the country. He is going to have a lot of money – not just from Club for Growth donors, but angry Republicans nationwide. And Specter has handed him a major valence issue: the senior senator from Pennsylvania is above all interested in the senior senator from Pennsylvania. This has long been the rap on Specter – and on Tuesday he confirmed that in a big way. Money and a message are two crucial ingredients to electoral success – and Toomey will have both. I’d say that Toomey is also going to need an anti-incumbent, pro-Republican national mood to help him next year – as Rick Santorum enjoyed in 1994 – but I would not count him out. There is, when it’s all said and done, little love lost between Arlen Specter and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Toomey could exploit this.
This, of course, assumes that Specter wins the nomination of the Democratic Party, whose voters split 71-28 against him in the 2004 election. And again, it is a sign of just how much water Specter has drained out of the pool that he thinks he’ll stand a better chance with these voters rather than Republicans, who have consistently supported him at levels greater than 80%.”
April 30th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Aron,
Approx 1 out of 5 Republicans (nationally) support Obama. Do you believe Specter can match this? Maybe, but the base in PA is amall and very conservative, so I am not convinced, although if you are correct and it does happen, that would mean Specter wins in a massive landslide.
April 30th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Kris,
Comparing apples-to-apples, using the same Quinnipiac poll, 27% of PA GOPers approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, and 26% approve of the way he is handling the economy.
On the following question:
Nearly 3 in 10 PA Republicans (29%) said that “the $161 million is money critically needed by Pennsylvania for local projects” comes closer to their perspective than believing the money “represents costly earmarks, pork barrel spending that should be eliminated in the current economic crisis.”
April 30th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
#68, so are you telling us we need to run a moderate candidate to beat Specter?
April 30th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Looks like they’re rallying around Gerlach, not Ridge.
April 30th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Kris,
I guess that depends on whether you would define the right-of-center Ridge as a ‘moderate.’
My assessment: Ridge would have a fighting chance (and my support) in a general against Specter — Toomey, next to nil.
April 30th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
I’m really surprised by the reactions. Not that so many people are for Ridge…I like Ridge better than Toomey as well and think he’d have a much better shot against Specter BUT isn’t it odd that the Party was showing major signs that they were going to back Toomey and not Specter but now that Specter is a Democrat the party has already started discounting Toomey and backing Ridge. Another example of a Party that is reaching for a breath…this is starting to get embarassing…they have got to figure this stuff out.
April 30th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
#70, really? Where???
April 30th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Congressman might take on Toomey in GOP primary
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_623051.html
Gerlach indicates Senate run possible
http://blog.pennlive.com/politics/2009/04/gerlach_indicates_senate_run_p.html
NRSC abandoning Toomey?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html?showall
April 30th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
It’s Ridge!!!!!
April 30th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Tommy Boy:
It looks like Jay Coast is thinking exactly the same thing I am. He never got more than 30% of the Democratic Party vote in a general election, what makes him think he’s going to get more than 50% in a Democratic Party Primary? Hell, the Dems tossed Liebermann in a route over one issue, what do you think they’ll do to a guy who also backed the Bush tax cuts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, the bankruptcy bill, etc. etc. Oh, and who (unlike Liebermann) could be challenged by someone with actual political experience, rather than a neophyte/ Kos backed nutjob?
I’d love to be a fly on the wall while the votes are counted around this time next year. If my childhood years watching Roadrunner and Bugs Bunny cartoons have taught me anything, at sometime during the night his head will turn into a giant sucker.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
“Looks like they’re rallying around Gerlach, not Ridge.” I am not a Gerlach expert, but I do know he has a good record as Congressman and I certainly would not be opposed to Mr. Gerlach.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Yeah, but whwat evidence do we have that the establishment is supporting Gerlach?
April 30th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
Sestak is not going to primary Spector. You don’t go against the incumbent President if you want to be taken seriously.
Spector will get through the Dem primary, and has to be favorite. That’s why he switched now, to give Dems the opportunity to get used to him, and to prevent good Dem candidates (like Sestak) jumping into the race. If he hadn’t gone now, Sestak might have committed expecting to face Toomey. Now, he’ll put all that money he raised on ice and wait for a better opportunity (Gov?)
April 30th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
I think enthusiasm for a Ridge candidacy now is pretty funny given the events of last July/August.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:47 am
My prediction Ridge will run and beat Arlen in a cliff hanger.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:57 am
Oh and he’ll smash Pat “boring as bat shit” Toomey. The guy looks like an accountant not a politician!