This is a couple of weeks old, but this is so-Race42012 material.
Questions for the readers (from the Mclaughlin group);
- Will Pawlenty represent the moderate wing of the party in 2012? (Cliff)
- Is Pawlenty in the top 5 of leading contenders for 2012? (Mclaughlin)
- Are conservatives looking for a ‘red meat’ candidate in 2012? (Crowley)
- Is Gingrich really a leading contender for 2012? (Buchanan)
- Are Huntsman, Crist, Sanford and Huckabee really off the list of leading candidates for 2012?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cjtO1JLtZw[/youtube]
March 31st, 2009 at 12:51 am
1. Possibly, alongside Crist and Huntsman.
2. #5 or 6, depending on how Sanford fares.
3. Most will be.
4. In the sense that he can grab a lot of press and impress in the debates, yes. In the sense that he has a decent shot at winning, no.
5. Off what list? Possible candidates? No. Probable nominees? Yes. Well, Sanford has a slim chance and Huck a remote one, unless Palin doesn’t run, then he’s up to a slim chance.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:54 am
I would answer no to all questions. I get the feeling Pawlenty’s ship has sailed. He’s rarely mentioned anymore in ’12 conversations. As for Gingrich – that will never happen. Oh he may run, but he will never win the nomination let alone the presidency. Way too much baggage. Are conservatives looking for “red meat”? Depends on which conservatives. Ficons – yes. Socons – no. Finally, I think all four governors will run, with Sanford having the best chance at the nomination. Why would they be off “the list” of leading candidates?
March 31st, 2009 at 3:27 am
I like Sanford’s positioning – clarity and a message that by the time 2011 rolls around might look sane to a wide spectrum of people. Romney will never pass the Iowa/SC test. He looks good and can give a speech but credibility gap issues abound with primary voters
March 31st, 2009 at 6:08 am
As part of the Right wing Mafia, I don’t see Pawlenty getting into the top tiers at all.
When all is said and done, I expect the Top Tier to be Huckabee, Standford and Romney. Anyone else running will do so to set themselves up for the next go around. I don’t even think Palin will attempt to run, but if she does, I see Huckabee taking her out early.
All signs point to Romney at this time and I don’t see another candidate out their with his standing.
As far as SC/Iowa goes, I think people underestimate how will Romney did and will do. If you take Fred Thompson and McCain, and Rudy out of the equation, then I don’t see Romney worse than a close second and possible taking Iowa. He will also likely be a close 2nd or third in South Carolina.
2008 Iowa results: Mike Huckabee at 30%, Romney at 27%, McCain and Thompson tied at 12%
2008 South Carolina: McCain 33, Huckabee 29 Thompson 15 Romney 15
I see him taking New Hampshire and Michigan, Wyoming and Nevada and Florida.
2008 New Hampshire: McCain won 37% Romney 32% and Huckabee beat Giuliani for third 11%-9%.
2008 Michigan: Romney’s 39 percent, McCain 30%
2008 Nevada: Mitt Romney 51%
2008 Florida: John McCain 36% Mitt Romney 31%,
This would give him a large lead going into super Tuesday. This means that Iowa/SC will not have the impact they once had.
Of those who are still standing by Super Tuesday, I don’t see any defeating Romney. I would expect Huckabee and maybe Standford to still be standing (although I don’t see room for both of them). I don’t expect Palin to get out of the gate.
Super Tuesday
=============
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma,Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts. Utah, Colorado, and Minnesota.
Of these states I see Romney taking most of the West including California, Utah, Colorado. I also don’t think Standford or Huckabee will be do well in the North, so I see Romney picking up Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts. I also see Illinois, West Virgina, and Minnesota going to Romney.
Standford and Huckabee will do okay in the South, including Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, but if Standford and Huckabee are still standing, they will split that vote, and Romney will likely pick up a lot of delegates.
By the time Super Tuesday is over, Romney will likely have a large lead.
March 31st, 2009 at 6:44 am
I agree with you Thunder. Romney is the front runner. I’m sure he’ll have to go up aganst team tactics again, but this time I don’t think the American people will bite. I think in this particular election, Iowa and SC will not have a big say in the outcome, unless Mitt would win Iowa, in which case it is all over. The way I see it, those that could hurt Mitt later in states like California or New York will be out of it early because they won’t do well in Iowa or SC. If Huntsman, Crist and Pawlenty are forced out early, Mitt will have clear sailing in the states you enumerate.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:16 am
Will Pawlenty represent the moderate wing of the party in 2012? (Cliff)
With the exception of being a little too Green, Mr. Pawlenty is more Conservative than moderate. He is moderate in the sence that he is everybody’s 2nd choice and nobody’s 1st choice. It is difficult to either love or hate him.
- Is Pawlenty in the top 5 of leading contenders for 2012? (Mclaughlin)
Yes, among my co-workers and in my neigborhood, his name recognition is better than most other candidate outside the big 3. While, he would be a good comprise candidate, it will be difficult for him to catch on unless the Big 3 all tear each other up and or implode. With CPAC, Mr. Romney surpassed Mr. Pawlenty in charisma and it catching up in terms of likability, so this makes it even tougher for swing voters to swing his way.
- Are conservatives looking for a ‘red meat’ candidate in 2012? (Crowley)
For the most part, Yes.
- Is Gingrich really a leading contender for 2012? (Buchanan)
I really doubt it.
- Are Huntsman, Crist, Sanford and Huckabee really off the list of leading candidates for 2012?
The first 3 are aprroximately in the top 8 (2nd tier or so,) Mr. Huckabee is still in the top 3 (ist tier so far.)
March 31st, 2009 at 7:25 am
As far as the delegate map, if by chance it becomes a 3 way contest between Mr. Romney, Mr. Sanford and Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Romney owns the West (does poorly in the South,) but Mr. Sanford could challenge Mr. Romney in a couple of Northeastern states. Both Mr. Pawlenty and Mrs. Palin could potentially do quite well throughout both the far west and mid-west. The only way Mr. Romney does reasonablely well in the South is if he takes out Mr. Huckabee early and or takes advantage of a quasi-multi-candidate race. While certainly not impossible, it will be difficult for any candidate to wrap it up before Super-Tuesday, Nevada and Michigan will again only be taken seriously to a point.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:27 am
Hey, if Pawlenty has no chance, why is he dominating that NPR bracket? http://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2009/mar/bracket2012/
He’s knocked off Gingrich and is now killing Pence. So there.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:35 am
Mathew: Please, that poll has Ron Paul taking out Romney, will never happen. It is after all NRP.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:38 am
If our primary process was run like an NCAA tournament, there is little doubt that Mr. Pawlenty would win most or all delegates from my state and go on to win the whole shooting match. The trouble for him is that our system is not run like such a tournament.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:41 am
“that poll has Ron Paul taking out Romney, will never happen.” Haha, it happened in my precint and ward, but I voted after Super Duper Tuesday.
March 31st, 2009 at 7:59 am
1) YES – HE IS MCCAIN LITE.
2) NO
3) NO – WE NEED COMPETENCE, NOT RED MEAT
4) NO
5) YES – EXCEPT FOR SANFORD
March 31st, 2009 at 8:40 am
I think we need to start cultivaing Romney, Jindal, Pawlenty, and other potential Republican candidates by focusing on there good qualities so that we can all go with the last man/woman standing in 2012.
The Democrats will do a sufficient job of mudslinging on all of them, so we don’t need to waste our efforts by helping them.
March 31st, 2009 at 10:13 am
Pat is usually right
March 31st, 2009 at 10:53 am
I have had this feeling that Pawlenty may surprise us (not win), but surprise us…
Tha man makes too much sense when he speaks. He could snow to an Alaskan.
March 31st, 2009 at 10:58 am
- Will Pawlenty represent the moderate wing of the party in 2012? (Cliff)
Pawlenty will represent the voters who want an alternative to Obama other than 1980s or 1990s Republicanism. Pawlenty is one of the candidates attempting to move the Republican Party out of the last century and if he comes in second to a fire-breather who ultimately loses to Obama, it will be hard to deny Pawlenty the nomination in 2016, at which point he would probably win the presidency due to Obama fatigue and his general acceptability to both base and center.
- Is Pawlenty in the top 5 of leading contenders for 2012? (Mclaughlin)
Sure, why not.
- Are conservatives looking for a ‘red meat’ candidate in 2012? (Crowley)
Yes. They are very angry that most Americans no longer see things their way, and can’t understand why Obama maintains a 60 percent approval rating (even though when you examine the polls more closely, you discover that only about half of the country approves of Obama’s POLICIES, meaning that 10-15 percent of the country simply approves of Obama because he’s the alternative to the Republicans, who are widely viewed as The Party That Sucks at this point).
- Is Gingrich really a leading contender for 2012? (Buchanan)
He’s a novelty.
- Are Huntsman, Crist, Sanford and Huckabee really off the list of leading candidates for 2012?
Crist: His positions match mine, other than some nuttiness on reparations, but he has a bit of a douche bag factor and voters can sniff that out.
Huckabee: I still maintain that there is no universe where Huckabee wins the GOP nomination.
Huntsman: Really has to get past the “Who?” factor. That will be hard to do in this field.
Sanford: Could be a less-crazy version of Ron Paul for voters who want the GOP to return to a more libertarian bent. But his ideology is a double-edged sword, and may be too unbending for an economically insecure electorate.
March 31st, 2009 at 11:48 am
#16, Thanks DaveG. Great analysis.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Approve 66%
Disapprove 29%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy?
Approve 60%
Disapprove 38%
Do you approve or disapprove of the federal government’s overall response to the economic situation?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 48%
Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy – Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
Obama 58%
Republicans 25%
March 31st, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Thunder,
Correction: Huckabee did not defeat Romney by only 30-27 in Iowa. I believe it was 34-25 in Iowa.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
The Man Who Ate the G.O.P.
In an ailing radio industry, with a graying audience and a pro-government landscape, Rush Limbaugh should be shuffling off into irrelevancy. Instead, his ever more outrageous attacks have everyone debating whether he’s the G.O.P.’s de facto leader, while the party shapes its ideology to fit his needs.
by Michael Wolff
March 31st, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Will Pawlenty represent the moderate wing of the party in 2012?
Could be. I think he’s pretty conservative, but he has a demeanor that makes him seem more moderate (this was one of Obama’s strengths, I think — he seemed more moderate than he was).
Is Pawlenty in the top 5 of leading contenders for 2012?
The top three clearly are Palin, Romney, and Huckabee. Expanding it to five, I would include Sanford and somebody — maybe Pawlenty, but also possibly Crist or Huntsman or Jindal.
Are conservatives looking for a ‘red meat’ candidate in 2012?
Some are, some aren’t. I want a winner.
Is Gingrich really a leading contender for 2012?
No.
Are Huntsman, Crist, Sanford and Huckabee really off the list of leading candidates for 2012?
No, that’s a pretty strange list McLaughlin presented. Like him or not (I don’t), Huckabee is obviously in the top tier, and Sanford (at this point) is well ahead of Pawlenty and Jindal.
March 31st, 2009 at 5:11 pm
1. No. One of Crist & Huntsman will certainly run, and they would be more natural fits for the ‘moderate’ wing.
2. No. The top 5 needs to include Romney, Huck & Palin (given their 2008 national experience) and Jindal. The 5th is undecided, but its more likely to be the nationally recognised Gingrich, the hot fiscal commodity Sanford, or the large state governor Crist than Pawlenty.
3. Conservatives are always looking for a ‘red meat’ candidate.
4. Yes, because he’s been nationally known for several years. That is always important (look at previous nominees: McCain, Dole, Reagan, Bush, etc)
5. No, see #2
March 31st, 2009 at 6:38 pm
Steele needs to get all of the states to become closed primaries. Romney lost because of the bigots casting votes in their own churches in Iowa, this is digusting. Closed primaries would also not allow the Democrats to elect another McCain. I see Romney winning in 2012
March 31st, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I’m sure Mr. Steele will take care of that as soon as he gets himself elected to all fifty of the state legislatures.