The weekend is usually pretty light on posts. People take the time to actually live their lives, as opposed to coming here and obsessing about politics. So, to provide a forum to for those who STILL want to talk politics, here you go! The only rule is don’t threadjack the open thread. How do you threadjack an open thread? You discuss something already posted elsewhere, that’s how!
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I’ll try to put something interesting in the posts. For the first, I have a saying I recently came across:
“God helps those who help themselves. The rest look to Obama.”
h/t Carl Plesner
February 28th, 2009 at 9:15 am
Good idea Richard,
Because it’s a blank slate, I don’t feel as bad about going off topic for religious discussions.
Alex recently wrote that there are only two explanations for our existence: the natural or the supernatural, and he’s chosen the natural. Fair enough, but he then goes onto claim that there’s no evidence for the supernatural.
I disagree, if the wonder and the mystery of the natural world is not enough to believe in God then, as a student of history, one also needs to deal with historicity of the Bible, most importantly the life and claims of Jesus Christ.
February 28th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Ultimately, to belief in the natural or the supernatural is a matter of faith. But to say there’s no evidence of the supernatural is, I believe, incorrect. There is both physical and historical evidence of the supernatural.
February 28th, 2009 at 9:39 am
On politics, as a Huckanut, I’m pleased with Mike’s numbers in the CNN poll. There are a lot of people around here that say he’s done but, clearly, he’s not.
The average voter is not the political junkie/partisan hack that inhabits this site. Mike’s TV show and radio spots are clearly a boost to his name ID and, if he so desires, future political aspirations.
February 28th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Here’s something that caught my eye; Senator Bunning threatening to either sue the GOP if they refuse to help him in his re-election, OR quit and let the Democrat Governor appoint a Democrat to his post.
I knew things were bad with the GOP infighting but this kind of tops the cake.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:05 am
2
to *believe*
embarrassing
February 28th, 2009 at 10:06 am
I’m betting (even though I don’t bet) that Romney wins the CPAC vote today! Any takers?
February 28th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Another claim by the Huckahaters I love is that his support is set in stone: deep south only. The fact that he won Kansas and Iowa with limited name ID, when just the name ‘Huckabee’ sounded weird, should be enough to debunk that claim.
Now that more people are getting to know him and become comfortable with him (and his name), his chances to win are good almost everywhere but the Northeast (although I think he could win PA).
February 28th, 2009 at 10:17 am
Mac, I am also surprised by Huckabee’s number in the CNN poll; if he keeps it up until 2011, Iowa should be quite the battle between him and Palin. Who does Pawlenty take votes from if he jumps into the Iowa fray? I suspect he’s the only non-Palin and non-Huckabee candidate who would make a play for Iowa given its proximity to his state and his ethanol sell-out.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:21 am
can’t wait to hear Rush at CPAC today
February 28th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Good news: Rasmussen has Obama at his highest strongly disapprove rating of 29%. Obama’s bounce has faded already from his SOTU-ish address.
I’ll look for crosstabs but his strongly favorable/unfavorable is just +10, 39/29.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:25 am
8
Tommy boy,
Yeah, I’d like to see a poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus attendees to see how they lean. I’d be a bit surprised if Huck wasn’t leading in Iowa.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:32 am
Mac, I used to think that Palin would be a starting off with a 20-30 point lead in Iowa but Huckabee’s presence in these polls suggests to me that it’s probably closer to a 5-10 point lead in Iowa for her, though it wouldn’t really shock me if Huckabee were leading by a narrow margin.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Tommy boy,
Regarding Pawlenty, as a native Iowan, I think he’s toast if he’s counting on Iowa to boost his chances (especially if Romney, Palin and/or Huck are in as they’ll suck the air out of the room).
There’s a ‘border war’ between Iowa and MN. People from MN look down their noses at Iowa, some of it’s good natured ribbing, but there is some real animosity. Plus, there’s the Hawkeye v Gopher rivalry, etc. Being the Gov of MN might be more of a liability in Iowa.
Plus, how much did proximity help Tommy Thompson in Iowa?
February 28th, 2009 at 10:39 am
What people (read: some republicans) see in Gov. Palin is beyond me.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:40 am
12
I still have family in Iowa, and maybe it’s just our family, but lets just say that, while we like her, we don’t think much of her as POTUS material.
February 28th, 2009 at 10:53 am
#15: at least your family likes her; once she performs you will probably be in her camp.
Then think about people who intensely dislike a candidate? Do you think there is much of a chance to convert them in the future, even if a candidate performs well?
February 28th, 2009 at 11:02 am
15
Bob,
Personally, I haven’t ruled Palin or Pawlenty out, though between the two, I strongly prefer Pawlenty as a candidate for POTUS.
But Palin or Obama?
OF COURSE, Palin!
(Although I’d be very, very nervous if she didn’t have an exceptionally competent VP and cabinet)
February 28th, 2009 at 11:10 am
Mac, I think Pawlenty is hoping for an upset win in Iowa because I don’t see Sam’s Club playing too well in New Hampshire; I see his message as fairly similar to the message that Huckabee will bring in 2012, but with less a focus on social conservatism.
February 28th, 2009 at 11:10 am
bob,
Regarding your second point, I don’t “intensely dislike” any of our potential candidates. I like Romney the least (by far) but that’s offset by his ‘hyper- competence’ and talent.
February 28th, 2009 at 11:15 am
18
Tommy boy,
Unless Pawlenty has the $$$ for a lot of ad buys (doubt it) I think he doesn’t have a chance for an upset in Iowa if Romney, Huck or Palin is in. (See 13, MN gov does little to nothing for him)
February 28th, 2009 at 11:24 am
No takers on the CPAC vote guys and gals?
February 28th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I want someone who is unapologetically conservative, someone who isn’t afraid to go after the other side on ideological grounds. Palin is the only one I have seen willing to do that.
Jindal should be good at it, but he holds back for whatever reason.
February 28th, 2009 at 11:28 am
#2 One demerit for threadjacking!
February 28th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Oops, #3! 8(
February 28th, 2009 at 11:29 am
21
1 Romney
2 Huckabee
3 Gingrich
February 28th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
More on Pawlenty in Iowa…
Romney takes away his center left, fi cons, the technocrats, etc.
Huck and Palin take away his center right, socons, etc.
Pawlenty is DOA in Iowa unless he comes up with a lot of money for ads.
February 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Mac: Doesn’t your analysis mean, though, that Pawlenty would also hurt Romney with technocrats, ficons, etc, and hurt Huckabee and Palin with socons?
February 28th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Pawlenty in IA is a possibility, but Mac is very spot on in his analysis. It will be hard for Tpaw to make an impact. I think 2012 will be Tpaw looking to be VP, he will enter to make sure he is on the short list of the eventual nominee. In fact if our nominee is anyone other than Romney he wouldnt be a bad pick.
Huck will do well in IA, but he really needs Palin to stay out to win big. Huck hasnt done anything to establish a foothold outside of his base areas. He has to do that in the next 18 months or he risks becoming an irrelevancy quickly.
Mac- what is Huck looking to do to expand himself beyond the so con wing of the party? is the strategy to stay relevant by being on Fox?
February 28th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Pawlenty is making noises about running for re-election in 2010; who knows if he’s actually thinking about it but I suspect it would be a tough race for him unlike the re-election races for Crist and Palin. Is there someone in recent history who has come off a competitive race (win by 5-10 points) and then subsequently put up a solid showing in a presidential contest that would begin just months later?
February 28th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
27 BobH, Could be, but Tpaw is a non-entity to the average voter. He does’t have the name rec or the stump skills or the money. He is the next Tommy Thompson.
February 28th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Mac, it sounds like you disagree with me regarding Romney’s chances in Iowa; I think he’s a complete non-entity in that state (not as much a non-entity as he will be in South Carolina). You disagree?
February 28th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Looks like Obama’s timetable on Iraq looks a whole lot like Bush’s, yet he gets praised and Bush was scorned by the media. What gives with that?
February 28th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
31
Tommyh,
I think Romney could win Iowa if both Palin and Huck are in.
28
corep, I think Huck’s ‘base areas’ will be almost everywhere but the NE. As I’ve said before, ask Arnold (or Reagan if he were still alive) how much showbiz hurt his political career.
February 28th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
I think Romney is unlikely to win Iowa, unless there is a fierce Palin vs. Huck battle and he splits the difference. Its not as though he had low support there, though, just less than Huckabee.
February 28th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I don’t see Huck being able to expand his base, even if Palin doesn’t run. (She’s stuck between not being qualified yet, and having to strike while the iron is hot, so she could go either way on running, but she’s making obvious moves.)
Anyway, Huck couldn’t beat Romney last time, what makes anyone think he can in 2012? Especially since Romney has been building even more support since he dropped out, and Huck really hasn’t. His support is still pretty solid, but limited to the south. So, what is going to make 2012 different? Fiscal cons are still suspicious of him, and the economic situation strongly favors Romney. Please don’t tell me how a populist message is going to resonate, I don’t buy it. We need a proven fixer. Not a tax raiser, either.
February 28th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
mac #33
thanks for partially answering the question on Huck. I know showbiz doesnt hurt someone too much, but what i was really asking is that the whole strategy for now, or is there going to be something else.
his book wasnt exactly a great thing. I think the guy has talent but is it being wasted by what he is doing now?
recall with Reagan and Arnold, both were showbiz guys prior to being serious politicians. Huck was a serious politician first now the showbiz, i dont know anyone who has gone this route and not become anything more than a pundit.(think Pat Buchanan)
February 28th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
35 – Its a bit early to say Huckabee won’t be able to expand his base. He does have a tv show as a platform. If he tweaks his image enough, he may have a shot, although I feel his chances are really slim. He’s doing well in the early polling. Once Mitt gets in gear again those numbers will probably change, but anything’s possible.
February 28th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
If Iowa were a primary I think Romney would stand a chance if both Palin and Huck were in the race. But since it’s a caucus I think Romney doesn’t stand a chance there.
February 28th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Why do you think Bobby Jindal made up the story about how he was with the Sheriff during the phone call about the boats?
February 28th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
32:
Yeah, Obama’s basically following Bush’s agreement with the Iraqis. He just chose an arbitrary point somewhere near the 16 month campaign promise and declared it kept.
Nevermind that there will still be about 50,000 soldiers still there. A number well above the risidual force he actually promised.
February 28th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
39, I don’t think he did, Caroline. I think it was just a mix-up in the way it was reported. I hope so.
February 28th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
Rush showed us the way at CPAC
February 28th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
#35:
“Anyway, Huck couldn’t beat Romney last time, what makes anyone think he can in 2012?”
Um, didn’t Huck win more delegates than Romney last time? And isn’t he ahead of romney in most of the polls?
If Palin doesn’t run, Huck will lead Romney by ten points in Iowa, SC, and other key states.
February 28th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Flip, you’re a knucklehead sometimes.
February 28th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
44 – Only if you don’t count the delegates Romney released to McCain when he dropped out.