If you’re a junky like me, you’ll appreciate this – MSNBC’s First Read did a private survey of all 168 RNC members and asked them who they were voting for on Friday. The results, because they include both private and public endorsements, give us the clearest look at this race we’ve gotten yet – and one number immediately jumps out as being significant:
That’s 127 decided, leaving just 41 undeclared.
Obviously, the Steele number is huge. He’s got his 18 public, as tracked by YourRNC.com, but also 12 private endorsements to go along with them. On the other hand, it’s difficult to know the veracity of this survey because Dawson already has 20 public endorsements and First Read shows the total of public and private endorsements to be two less than that – so I’ve used 20 in the list above.
(In other news, those Guam delegates did indeed abandon Anuzis and Duncan, so the lower number of 16 is used for Anuzis’ total in the list above.)
Duncan is right where he was expected to be – about halfway to the magic 85, but far enough back to probably not make it to victory. Tonight, however, the Mike Duncan re-election team is already “declaring victory” – once again, according to First Read. Either they know something about the 41 undeclared members that we don’t (which is possible after spending the day with them today), or they’re about to get egg on their face on Friday. Only time will tell.
UPDATE: According to Ben Smith over at Politico, Steele has shared that list of 30 names with them as well, and told Politico that in addition to those 30, he’s already rounded up another 9 for a total of at least 39 votes on the first ballot. If that is the case, Steele appears to have all the momentum in this race heading into the final day before the voting begins.
January 28th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!
Er, I mean
MICHAEL STEELE!!!!!!!!!!!
January 29th, 2009 at 12:12 am
He’d do just about as good a job as McCain
January 29th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Who do you support, Thomas Alan?
January 29th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I hope Steele pulls this out. I could see some of the Duncan votes switching to Steele if Duncan doesn’t wrap it up by the third round.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:37 am
Anuzis and Blackwell will most likely decide who gets this in the end. Neither of them will become Chair and their votes will need to go to someone. In the end, Dawson will still probably get it because of two key things:
1.) He is a member of the RNC, but is not Duncan
2.) He has won races even in the last few cycles, unlike the others
January 29th, 2009 at 12:39 am
If it’s Dawson v. Steele, I find it hard to believe that Dawson would win. It would be a major step backward in the party’s efforts to diversify itself and broaden its base.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:40 am
#6: Why would THAT surprise you? That’s what the GOP and most posters on this board are completely blind to.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:45 am
Metro,
Do you really think “most” of the posters on this site are like that? I’ve seen quite a bit of support for Steele here (myself included). Now, if you were to head on over to FreeReepublic….
As an aside, I don’t think that just because someone supports Blackwell or Dawson doesn’t mean they are blind to other issues, but only that they have a different perspective and place a different priority on particular issues.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:57 am
3:
Dawson.
If not, just pick Duncan again. At least he can fundraise and won’t stick his head out of the office. Steele and Anuzis sucked at their last jobs and will likely be a step backwards. Steele mostly wants a platform anyway. Blackwell’s totally unproven.
January 29th, 2009 at 2:14 am
I don’t see the McCain/Steele comparisons at all. I think Steele is the best guy for the job (he’s NOT a liberal, no matter what people say). He’s very good at remaining steadfast in his beliefs while being able to talk with moderates in a non-exclusive way. Isn’t that the type of guy we want running the RNC? I think he’s great!
January 29th, 2009 at 2:17 am
I agree with Brian.
Go, Steele, go!
January 29th, 2009 at 2:36 am
Nooo, I wasn’t calling him McCain!
I was poking fun at this guy Brandon Antoine who used to come into every thread and go “JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” to express his support for J-Mac.
January 29th, 2009 at 8:55 am
If Lt Gov Steele has already secured 39 votes, with some 30 still undecided, I like his odds. At this point, I think the undecideds would generally lean towards him, as undecideds at this point are likely debating whether the current path of the party can be made to work, and as it’s an abject failure, they will decide it’s time for a new path. Chrmn Dawson isn’t a new path, but a double-down of the old.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Out of our choices I would be happiest with Lt. Gov Steele. The GOP needs a shakeup and the Chairpeople better elect someone other than the man who “lead” (ha ha ha) the party for the last 8 years or the guy who was knowingly a member of a RACIST country club.
January 29th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Ray, if Lt Gov Steele is ultimately selected, it’s just the first step. He will need to become a prominent face for conservatives, in order to make a point about inclusion. Is it fair or right to promote him beyond any other Chair, and basically redefine his role? No, but as the GOP has ignored their appeal to minorities for so long, we have to do some things we don’t like (and I’m NOT talking about rewriting the platform, guys!) in order to get past the media fog that will inevitably rise.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
steele has a better conservative record then mccain, is very intelligent, and will help reach out to blocks of voters we need to compete again.
steele is a great voice to have on the national stage hitting back at obama. with the race card off the table, what will the dems say next?
January 29th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Great news!
The GOP is little by little reversing its slide away from national irrelevancy. Can’t say it hurts, either, that the Congress Democrats are waving their guns in our direction, forcing the moderates and conservatives to begin to see eye to eye.
January 29th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
just wondering when is this vote when will we know the new RNC chairman?
January 29th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Greg, 10:30 – 5:00 EST tomorrow is when the balloting takes place. I’m not sure if they’re going to post results live or after the whole thing is over.
January 29th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
think the news media will cover tomorrows vote or will obama schedule over shadow this in the news?