The first vote is in less than 13 hours, so here’s some final notes on the race:
- Chip Saltsman is out. He saw the writing on the wall – namely, not even six members wanted to endorse the guy – and dropped out before the first ballot was finalized. The race is officially down to five now.
- RealClearPolitics echoes my sentiments earlier: this race is going to come down to competence versus change. On one side, Duncan and Dawson. On the other, Steele. Anuzis or Blackwell would be a big surprise at this point.
- Over at The Fix, Chris sees the first ballot lining up with Duncan in first, Steele in second, and Dawson in third. Based on “conversations with a variety of operatives” he says “Dawson is, without question, the candidate with the momentum in the field.” He also points out that for Duncan to be in a good position after the first ballot, Blackwell’s support will pretty much all have to go to Duncan – something that likely will not happen.
- Human Events talked to two of the RNC members on the condition of anonymity and the report was: “[T]hey agreed Duncan is the front-runner, the two RNC members I spoke to concur in awarding Dawson second-place… My two inside sources say Michael Steele is in third place, but were not as confident as they were about Duncan and Dawson being one-two.”
For what it’s worth, here are the front page posters’ predictions regarding this race from back on New Year’s:
- Alex – Steele
- Adam – Duncan as General Chairman, Steele as National Chairman
- Gamecock – Blackwell
- Matt C – Duncan
- Kavon – Duncan
The fun starts in the morning, boys and girls.
January 29th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Prediction:
Mike Duncan will be RNC Chairman
Michael Steele will by “General Chiarman” like Mel Martinez was in 2007.
January 29th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Does anyone know if the balloting is going to be on C-Span or any other network?
January 29th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Steele or Dawson – obviously.
Probably Steele.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Duncan should make it to the final vote. If he’s facing Steele, all the traditional RNC voters go to him.
If it’s Duncan vs. Dawson, then Duncan has the advantage but Dawson has a serious shot with the voters looking for a change of some kind perhaps swinging to him.
January 30th, 2009 at 7:02 am
#2: It will air on C-Span starting at 10:30am.
January 30th, 2009 at 8:51 am
About how long will the process take? I have to work today until about 3 central. Too late?
January 30th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Illinois guy, i heard it could run till like 5-6 pm DC time tonight .
January 30th, 2009 at 10:03 am
They’ve blocked out from 10:30 until 5:00 for all the winter elections, which mainly is just the RNC chair vote. It could potentially be over before then depending on how many ballots this thing goes to.
January 30th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Word is Steel came out firing in privite meetings last night and is surging to 2nd place.
January 30th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I got a Steele for Chairman button! Woo.
Actually, I was supposed to be there covering this, both for Race and NewMajority, but nobody was answering at the freaking press office.
Oh, well. I’m kinda burnt out, anyway.