This ad debuted on NBC’s Nightly News:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ARQi59v51c[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3zHBXg18nc[/youtube]

Morning Call/Muhlenberg Pennsylvania General Election

• Barack Obama 53%
• John McCain 42%
• Undecided 4%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Joe Biden 56% / 27% (+29%)
• Barack Obama 56% / 33% (+23%)
• John McCain 43% / 42% (+1%)
• Sarah Palin 40% / 49% (-9%)

Survey of 610 likely voters was conducted October 24-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 53% (D); 40% (R); 5% (I).

Rasmussen Indiana General Election

• John McCain 49% (50%)
• Barack Obama 46% (43%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• John McCain 57% (53%) / 40% (45%) [+17%]
• Barack Obama 49% (49%) / 48% (50%) [+1%]

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted October 28-29. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 7 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Montana General Election

• John McCain 50% (52%)
• Barack Obama 46% (44%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• John McCain 53% (56%) / 45% (43%) [+8%]
• Barack Obama 49% (53%) / 50% (46%) [-1%]

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted October 29. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1 are in parentheses.

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SurveyUSA Iowa General Election

• Barack Obama 55% (54%)
• John McCain 40% (41%)

Survey of 658 likely voters was conducted October 28-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-9 are in parentheses. Party ID breakdown: 45% (D); 29% (R); 25% (I).

Rasmussen North Carolina General Election

• Barack Obama 50% (48%)
• John McCain 48% (49%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• John McCain 56% (59%) / 43% (40%) [+13%]
• Barack Obama 53% (52%) / 46% (47%) [+7%]

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted October 29. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 26 are in parentheses.

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The Record/Research 2000 New Jersey General Election

• Barack Obama 54% (50%)
• John McCain 38% (41%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• Joe Biden 55% (48%) / 35% (28%) [+20%]
• Sarah Palin 37% (47%) / 54% (28%) [-17%]

(more…)

IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 47.7%
• John McCain 43.6%
• Undecided 8.7%

Survey of 871 likely voters was conducted October 25-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

H/T: Jamison

Nuclear Tests (from the Associated Press)

Iran has recently tested ways of recovering highly enriched uranium from waste reactor fuel in a covert bid to expand its nuclear program, according to an intelligence assessment made available to The Associated Press. The alleged tests loosely replicate Saddam Hussein’s attempts to build the bomb nearly two decades ago.

Iranian Nuke Scientist: Weekend Quake was a Nuclear Test

A weekend 5.0 Richter earthquake in Iran was actually a nuclear bomb test, says an Iranian nuclear scientist claiming to be working on the project.

Iran building naval bases along Sea of Oman coast

The new bases will extend from Bandar Abbas, a major Iranian seaport on the Strait of Hormuz, to Pasa Bandar near the Pakistan border, Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayari was quoted as saying. “The new mission of the Navy is to establish an impenetrable line of defense at the entrance to the Sea of Oman,” Sayari said, adding the new bases will be constructed rapidly.

“If the enemy goes insane, we will drown them at the bottom of the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman before they reach the Strait of Hormuz and the entrance to the Persian Gulf,” he vowed.

On Monday, Iran’s Armed Forces also inaugurated a new naval base in the strategic port of Jask, east of the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. Iran’s Deputy Army Commander Brigadier General Seied Abdolrahim Moussavi said Tuesday that the aircraft carriers of the enemy, “like the elements of the computer games,” are under the gaze of Iran’s Armed Forces.

Iran Has Potential WMD Capabilities, Reports Say

“An Iranian missile force known to be armed with chemical warheads – even less effective unitary warheads — would give Iran a rapid way of deploying a form of weapon of mass destruction that would almost certainly have a major impact on how its neighbors view the risk of supporting U.S. military action and might have a deterrent impact on Israel,” the report states.

—–

Obama victory = US/Israel strike against Iran’s nuclear program?

Allstate/National Journal Battleground States

Colorado

• Obama-Biden 48% (45%)
• McCain-Palin 44% (44%)

Florida

• Obama-Biden 45% (44%)
• McCain-Palin 44% (44%)

Ohio

• Obama-Biden 48% (41%)
• McCain-Palin 41% (42%)

Virginia

• Obama-Biden 48% (41%)
• McCain-Palin 44% (48%)

North Carolina

• Obama-Biden 47%
• McCain-Palin 43%

Survey of 400 registered voters in each state was conducted October 23-27. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11-15 are in parentheses.

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Fox News/Opinion Dynamics General Election

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 47% (49%)
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 44% (40%)
• Undecided 6% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• Joe Biden 55% (57%) / 37% (33%) [+18%]
• Barack Obama 56% (60%) / 40% (35%) [+16%]
• John McCain 54% (55%) / 42% (41%) [+12%]
• Sarah Palin 49% (48%) / 46% (44%) [+3%]

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Marist Colorado General Election

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 45%
• Undecided 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• Barack Obama 56% / 40% [+16%]
• Joe Biden 51% / 40% [+11%]
• John McCain 51% / 44% [+7%]
• Sarah Palin 46% / 49% [-3%]

Survey of 682 likely voters was conducted October 27-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Marist Virginia General Election

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 47%
• Undecided 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]

• Barack Obama 61% / 35% [+26%]
• Joe Biden 53% / 37% [+16%]
• John McCain 54% / 39% [+15%]
• Sarah Palin 47% / 46% [+1%]

Survey of 671 likely voters was conducted October 26-27. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (10/30)

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50%
• John McCain 42%

Likely Voters (Expanded)

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 44%

Likely Voters (Traditional)

• Barack Obama 50%
• John McCain 45%

Survey of of 2,800 registered voters, including 2,347 likely voters (expanded model), and 1,825 likely voters (traditional model) was conducted October 27-29. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Anyone wonder why the Obama campaign has sent in the “heavy hitters” like former President Bill Clinton when Pennsylvania is supposedly wrapped up? Fred Thompson asks that very question, from the Victory Bus Tour:

Clinton urged the Harrisburg crowd to keep working.

“These elections have a way of tightening up in the last week. They almost always do,” Clinton said.

Republicans said Clinton’s appearance proves the state is still up for grabs.

“I wonder why he’s here today,” said former Sen. Fred Thompson, the one-time presidential candidate and star of NBC’s “Law & Order.” He stumped for McCain in York and Lancaster on Wednesday.

“I thought Pennsylvania was supposed to be dark blue on the electoral map,” Thompson said.

Hot on the heels of the encouraging news from Nevada, even more exciting news is emerging from Florida.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted. 1.4 million voters have gone to the polls early.

The Money Quote:

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Analysis:

How many of these absentee ballots were cast by snowbirds?  These absentee ballots are not just a sample of Florida voters, but voters from the mid-western United States.  This poll is not only confirming a McCain victory in Florida, but the McCain/Palin strength in many of the other battleground states.

Indianapolis Star/Selzer Indiana General Election

• Barack Obama 46% (47%)
• John McCain 45% (44%)
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 606 likely voters was conducted October 26-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16 are in parentheses.

NBC/Mason-Dixon Arizona General Election

• John McCain 48% (47%)
• Barack Obama 44% (41%)

Survey of 625 Likely Voters was conducted October 27-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 13-15 are in parentheses.

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Battleground States General Election

Arizona

• John McCain 53%
• Barack Obama 46%

North Carolina

• Barack Obama 52% (51%)
• John McCain 46% (47%)

Ohio

• Barack Obama 51% (50%)
• John McCain 47% (46%)

Nevada

• Barack Obama 52% (51%)
• John McCain 45% (46%)

Pennsylvania

• Barack Obama 55%
• John McCain 43%

Surveys were conducted October 23-28, with 801 likely voters in Arizona, 684 in Nevada, 779 in Ohio, 667 in North Carolina and 768 in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.5-4 percentage points. Results from the polls conducted October 19-21 are in parentheses.

Jim Geraghty wonders why Barack Obama is spending Friday afternoon in a state where he leads by 11.4% in the RCP average.

If you will recall, McCain/Palin have been spent some in Iowa lately, much to the chagrin of some poll watchers.

Are the internals showing a different race than the public polls once again?

GW/Battleground Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 49%
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 46%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 23, 26-29.

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll

• Barack Obama/Joe Biden 48%
• John McCain/Sarah Palin 42%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 869 likely voters was conducted October 27-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID Breakdown: 41% (D), 37% (R), 17% (I).

(more…)

Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (10/30)

• Barack Obama 51%
• John McCain 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Barack Obama 56% / 43% (+13%)
• John McCain 54% / 44% (+10%)

(more…)

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll

• Barack Obama 50.2%
• John McCain 43.3%
• Others/Not sure 6.5%

Survey of 1,202 likely voters was conducted October 27-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

(more…)

According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released today, John McCain has made substantial progress on the issues of the economy and taxes.  He now leads his wealth-redistribution supporting opponent on the issue of the economy.  48% favor McCain while 47% favor his opponent.  It is the first time that McCain has led on this issue since the middle of September.

On the issue of taxes, 47% favor the war-hero Senator from Arizona, while 45% favor the socialist Senator from Illinois.

These results are important for two reasons.  The first reason is that, in both national and state polling, we see a strong correlation between the percentage who prefer one candidate on the economy, and the percentage who favor the same candidate overall.

The second reason, and most ominous for those who favor Senator Redistribution, is that the poll was conducted on October 25 and October 26, before the release of the Chicago radio interview.

Romney supporter and head of Utah Lawyers for McCain, Kirk Jowers;

“Palin has not distinguished herself as a competent vice presidential candidate, and that is going to be a heavy anchor to drag into 2012.”

Romney friend and confidant, Kevin Madden;

“Look, that is why people who have done this before, people who have run national campaigns, always tend to look at prospective V.P. candidates, and they’re the ones that are nationally vetted, the ones that have been governors on the scene for a long time, the ones that have been — gone through the scrutiny of the national press corps in Washington.”

The American Spectator quoting Romney staffers;

“Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won’t be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,” says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. “The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He’s in charge on November 5th.”

———-
Recently, an influential conservative blogger (name withheld) outlined for me the reasons why the Romney 2008 campaign faltered.  One factor was the ”go nuclear” approach the campaign took with the competing GOP candidates.  The Romney campaign angered supporters of the other candidates to such a degree that their second choice for nominee was, “anyone but Romney”.

I had expected that the CEO of the SLC Olympics had learned from the mistakes of his campaign, but history seems to be repeating itself.  Romney has never ceased his campaign for President of the United States and although he has campaigned hard for John McCain, it appears as if this display of teamwork has been entirely for self-promoting reasons.  Romney and his supporters are now targeting their only serious 2012 challenger, Governor Sarah Palin.

Unlike the Bush campaign of 2000, John McCain 2008 and his PAC supporters have reached out their hand, to include/employ Romney campaign operatives and family members in the Presidential campaign.  The actions of team Romney are not becoming of appreciative Republicans and present a lack of altruism and loyalty to the grassroots of the party.

To secure the 2012 nomination, Mitt Romney requires a significant percentage of registered Republicans and conservative activists to forget his poorly managed and anger/blame driven 2008 campaign.  This obvious logic has not been grasped by the Mittens2012 crew, as instead of allowing these voters and activists to forgive and forget, they seem determined to remind them of the depraved and feculent politiking the Romney clan is known for.

We will not forget.

———

Fred Thompson smears traced back to Mitt Romney

Romney smears Rudy

Romney misleads on Huckabee’s record

Romney lies about McCain

Just good old fashioned journalistic impartiality:

• MSNBC stood out for having less negative coverage of Obama than the press generally (14% of stories vs. 29% in the press overall) and for having more negative stories about McCain (73% of its coverage vs. 57% in the press overall).

• On Fox News, in contrast, coverage of Obama was more negative than the norm (40% of stories vs. 29% overall) and less positive (25% of stories vs. 36% generally). For McCain, the news channel was somewhat more positive (22% vs. 14% in the press overall) and substantially less negative (40% vs. 57% in the press overall). Yet even here, his negative stories outweighed positive ones by almost 2 to 1.

• CNN fell distinctly in the middle of the three cable channels when it came to tone. In general, the tone of its coverage was closer than any other cable news channel to the press overall, though also somewhat more negative than the media overall.

• The distinct tone of MSNBC—more positive toward Democrats and more negative toward Republicans—was not reflected in the coverage of its broadcast sibling, NBC News. Even though it has correspondents appear on their cable shows and even anchor some programs on there, the broadcast channel showed no such ideological tilt. Indeed, NBC’s coverage of Palin was the most positive of any TV organization studied, including Fox News.

• At night, the newscasts of the three traditional broadcast networks stood out for being more neutral—and also less negative—than most other news outlets. The morning shows of the networks, by contrast, more closely resembled the media generally in tone. That might surprise some who imagined those morning programs were somehow easier on political figures. Overall, 44% of the morning show stories were clearly negative, compared with 34% on the nightly news and 42% in the press overall.

Fair and Balanced indeed.  No, but seriously,…how monumentally screwed have we been that even at Fox News, The One is getting 3% fewer negative stories?  Overall, McCain is getting just 14% positive stories and 57% negative stories.  4 TIMES more negative stories. Obama has gotten 36% positive stories and 29% negative.  In other words, that wacky, paranoid cry from delusional talk radio right wingers about the Press acting as an attack dog for Obama…well, not so wacky and we’re not so paranoid or delusional.  De….pressing.