Strategic Vision (R) New Hampshire General Election
- Barack Obama/Joe Biden 50% (46%)
- John McCain/Sarah Palin 41% (45%)
Favorable / Unfavorable [Net]
- John McCain 55% (59%) / 35% (29%) [+20%]
- Barack Obama 54% (52%) / 38% (36%) [+16%]
- Joe Biden 49% (48%) / 37% (38%) [+12%]
- Sarah Palin 47% (50%) / 40% (35%) [+7%]
Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the economy?
- Barack Obama 50% (48%)
- John McCain 43% (41%)
Which presidential candidate do you believe would be best able to handle the war in Iraq?
- John McCain 48% (47%)
- Barack Obama 41% (37%)
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 27-29. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 22-24 are in parentheses.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:29 am
It’s interesting that McCain has the higher favorability rating and lowest unfavorability rating. That could prove useful
October 31st, 2008 at 9:30 am
I feel that, in the end, this state just ain’t gonna happen.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:34 am
NH is just gone. It’s now a blue state.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:36 am
NH is just gone. It’s now a blue state.
No way. Bush won in 2000, almost won in 2004, and McCain had a fighting chance here this year. On a state level, though, it’s looking pretty solidly blue, with Lynch as governor and Sununu looking to be kicked out as its sole Republican at the national level.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:44 am
The UNH poll has the gap a bit wider than this. Off topic though, I saw on ABC news last night that 59% of early voters have voted for Obama. How can this be if McCain is winning Florida and only narrowly behind in Nevada?
October 31st, 2008 at 9:46 am
#5, the registrations are tilted heavily, too, about 60% Dem, 40% Rep. The exit polling has to be incorrectly favoring McCain. There is NO WAY that many Dems are switching sides.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:46 am
The data I’ve seen shows Sununu with a fighting chance. McCain, however, needs to get to 270 without New Hampshire. Also, one of the CDs is in play.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:49 am
#4,
Take a look at the trends. This is supposedly a state that loves low taxes. Now they are going to elect a Marxist. This would never have happened in the 1980′s.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:53 am
Adam is right, when Democrats did win in the past at the state level, it was moderates, not Obama-types.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:53 am
McCain’s favorability is interesting however.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:55 am
,Take a look at the trends. This is supposedly a state that loves low taxes. Now they are going to elect a Marxist. This would never have happened in the 1980’s.
He has not run as a Marxist. Step outside of the bubble and realize that most Americans that will vote for him don’t look deeply into his connections and think that they’re electing a reasonable, center-left kind of guy. When they hear him talk about tax cuts for the middle class, they don’t instinctively think “MARXIST LIAR!”
October 31st, 2008 at 9:57 am
Thinking Person, NH voted for Kerry last time, and he wasn’t really running as a moderate, was he?
October 31st, 2008 at 10:04 am
TP,
It still seems like people know what they’re getting. He’s going to raise capital gains. He’s going to take small businesses.
Most Americans thought Jimmy Carter was a reasonable center-left guy. But New Hampshire rejected him by 12-points in 1976. They saw through it then. Obama is running more to the left than Carter ever did. The state is gone. I wish it wasn’t the case, but it is. We need to find a way to change that around and win in other states that have slipped from our grasp, like PA, NJ, CT and MI.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:21 am
no way the spread in NH is that high
October 31st, 2008 at 10:40 am
There was one heck of a Bradley effect here in the primary.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:54 am
#15, no Bradley effect in NH.
1) “wash my shirt” Mrs. Clinton
2) Students did now show up for Obama, even though the pollsters gave them heavy weight in the assumptions/calculations.
October 31st, 2008 at 10:57 am
Haha. I loved that. It didn’t get any more staged than that.
“IRON MY SHIRT. IRON MY SHIRT”
October 31st, 2008 at 11:13 am
#16 ..thats a great point….did the kiddies ever come out for obama in the primaries?…he largely won thru the insider caucus process
October 31st, 2008 at 12:29 pm
#18, they did in the caucus votes, but not primaries. They are not showing up in early voting, so far.
#17, they were two local radio hosts who did that. They thought it would be funny, but they only upset all the undecided female voters in NH.