Rasmussen Daily General Election Tracking (10/31)
- Barack Obama 51%
- John McCain 47%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 54% / 44% (+10%)
- John McCain 53% / 45% (+8%)
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters–is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
For polling data released during the week of October 26-November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
Inside the numbers:
It is impossible to overstate the importance of Obama’s tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected. Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins. Obama has made remarkable progress on this issue in recent months. In August, only 9% believed Obama would cut their taxes.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe their taxes will go up in an Obama Administration while 26% say the same about McCain.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:49 am
What’s interesting about it is that Obama stayed the same from yesterday and McCain went up 1%. Basically, from Monday the polling results are overall 1% better for McCain than Obama. That’s with Ras assuming an 7.2% difference in Democratic and Republican voters. Very interesting.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:50 am
Considering his increased Dem ID weighting this might just be a 2% race now and come down to a couple of states like VA,CO, PA etc.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:51 am
a little go news….contributed last night, so this makes me feel better
October 31st, 2008 at 8:54 am
remember that todays polls get rid of monday, which was the last “kill the Dow day”..so that might have helped too
October 31st, 2008 at 9:10 am
Obama’s lead over McCain in net favorability has shrunk significantly this past week…
10/24 Obama +7
10/25 Obama +9
10/26 Obama +15
10/27 Obama +8
10/28 Obama +7
10/29 Obama +3
10/30 Obama +3
10/31 Obama +2
October 31st, 2008 at 9:10 am
Another good Obama day comes off tomorrow.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:14 am
The partisan skew is way off too. I really think that it will be in the range of Dem+1 to Dem+4. That means the polling could be off anywhere from 3-6 points favoring Democrats. The polling has been really bad this year. We’ll find out the truth on Tuesday. I could be wrong and Obama could be up huge though.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:34 am
Obama’s lead over McCain in net favorability has shrunk significantly this past week…
Is it Obama losing, McCain gaining, or both?
October 31st, 2008 at 9:53 am
EricB, My guess is Dem + 5
October 31st, 2008 at 11:40 am
Obama’s net favorability ratings from the past week
10/24 57/42 (+15)
10/25 56/42 (+14)
10/26 57/41 (+16)
10/27 55/44 (+11)
10/28 56/43 (+13)
10/29 55/44 (+11)
10/30 56/43 (+13)
10/31 54/44 (+10)
McCain’s net favorability ratings from the past week
10/24 53/45 (+8)
10/25 52/47 (+5)
10/26 50/49 (+1)
10/27 51/48 (+3)
10/28 53/47 (+6)
10/29 54/46 (+8)
10/30 54/44 (+10)
10/31 53/45 (+8)
October 31st, 2008 at 1:29 pm
New RNC ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBjzAa1yikY&eurl%20^
October 31st, 2008 at 5:26 pm
The problem with favourble /un is there is no Neutral /Doesnt bother me option.
In reality there is no jump from Fav to Unfav in anything. Favourable is too polite a term in todays language.
Ought be…
Massive /whatever/gay to describe contemporary language esp under 40s.