Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (10/31)
Registered Voters
- Barack Obama 52%
- John McCain 41%
Likely Voters (Expanded)
- Barack Obama 52%
- John McCain 43%
Likely Voters (Traditional)
- Barack Obama 51%
- John McCain 43%
Survey of of 2,825 registered voters, including 2,459 likely voters (expanded model), and 2,116 likely voters (traditional model) was conducted October 28-30. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Gallup is losing credibility with these fluctuations
October 31st, 2008 at 12:12 pm
So are we to assume Gallup may be registering a small bump for Obama’s primetime infomercial?
October 31st, 2008 at 12:14 pm
I Just dont believe Obama is up by 8% – Gallup has some funny business also possibly. My best guess is rassmussen will be close but has his Dem id advantage off a little meaning McCain might be 2% closer and I still truly believe that every poll has at minumum a 2% Bradley/Obama craze effect so if Rassmussen has it within 4% in his last poll I think McCain can win even losing 50-48 in the popular vote just like Kerry would have in 04 with a little more in Ohio.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Dr. Frank Newport will be out of a job after this election..
October 31st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
This is definately the Obamamercial bump we’re seeing here. I hope it doesn’t last the weekend and McCain can play a good game of catch up.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
MVRed all these bogus pollls will just claim it must have been the Bradley effect and ignore their overpolling and weighting of Dems. The only prediction coming true so far is increased AA turnout the young voter thing is not materializing at all so far from what I have read.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I am going to predict the electoral map using my calculations of sampling all the polls back to average levels. It will be a longggg night on Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest McCain polls in PA are promising, and may put him over the top in my calculations.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:51 pm
This does not bode well.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:52 pm
#7 – but aren’t you forgetting the Michelle tapes from “Africa Press International?” Have you calculated just how much time of your life you wasted going down that rabbit hole, a site so fraudulent that my 9 year old daughter laughed at it when I showed it to her?
October 31st, 2008 at 12:54 pm
David. I didn’t waste my time there. I checked it every so often. I got fooled. They made it sound very legit. O well I was wrong.
But even after the convention speech-Powell endorsement-3 debates-obamericial-economic crisis, we still got a race!!! After every one of those events, Obama supporters told me they’d blow this thing open, and they never did it.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:57 pm
#10. Fair enough.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I really belive McCain will hold most of the swing states – I think VA,PA, and CO will determine the winner. McCain must get PA or VA and CO.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:01 pm
PEOPLE, Listen to the great folks at Hillbuzz. These are solidly anti-Obama, pro-Hillary/McCain supporters who understand how the media is using these polls to depress voters and suppress the vote. They call GOPers who carry an attitude of doom and gloom Eeyores. And they want the Eeyores (which are aplenty on this site) to buck, get out and vote, and get everyone you know to vote for McCain. They see this election differently then the typical Republican. They understand the shameful tactics of the MSM and Obama campaign.
Here’s something recent they said:
If you do just ONE THING today, we ask you a personal favor: PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE go to as many Republican blogs as you can and WARN THEM that the Obamedia will tell you all weekend that Obama is winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, West Virginia, and other states we do not believe Obama will win (except for Iowa, which we still think goes to Obama, but our best sources claim McCain now leads in internals by 1 point). They are already starting to say truly crazy things like “Obama will win Louisiana and Arkansas!”, and that’s just nuts. That is your equivalent of the Obamedia swearing up and down that the Kennedys and Oprah would win Massachusetts and California for Obama. WE knew that was pure cockamamie nonsense, but Eeyores wet their pants on cue over this. So, the Obamedia’s marching orders are to freak all of you out with SHOCKING DEVELOPMENTS! in Lousiana, Arkansas, Georgia, etc. just to shake your faith and confidence.
So the moral of the story is: IGNORE THESE POLLS! GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!
October 31st, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I’m right there with you, effendi. I love and draw great comfort from the PUMAs and Hillbuzzers. They are at least vertebrates, unlike many of the race42008.commies who attempt almost daily to undermine our own ticket.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:21 pm
We should constantly remind ourselves that by all rights we should be at least 20 points behind. Yet we aren’t.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
One hand: Gallup has called the Presidential election correct since 1936 I believe. That’s based on the last poll they put out (i.e. not this one)
Other hand: Gallup is so unsure this year, they’re putting out two LV models
October 31st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Gallup did not have a very good primary season…..not saying they are wrong, but….
October 31st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Everyone is focused on trying predict an outcome (out of some smug desire to be the one who got it right), when they should be focused on affecting an outcome through motivation and inspiration.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I think any chance of a McCain victory is out of his hands. I depends on a wave of white moderates in Middle America turning on Obama for whatever reason; race, primarily, but also taxes and experience. That’s the only playbook McCain has left.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Chicago politics to go national? Gov. Rod Blagojevich of Il enjoys a 13% approval rating but claims that he’s “Honored To Get [his]‘Ass Kicked’” because “He Is A Champion Of The People, And Thus Doesn’t Mind Low Approval Ratings.”
http://cbs2chicago.com/local/blagojevich.approval.ratings.2.853295.html
October 31st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
You guys on this site new to grow a pair. Seriously.
Are you real Republicans or not? Sack up – this is the future of the country we are talking about.
As far a Evil Conservatives statements on gallup, do a little homework before embarassing yourself.
Final 2004 Gallup Poll: Tied at 49. Bush won 51-48. WRONG!
2000 Gallup poll: Gore by 11 at one point
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2102429/posts
They ended at Bush plus 2. WRONG!
1996 Gallup poll had Clinton up 11 and over 50%. He won by 8 and got less than 50%.
1992 Gallup poll had Clinton up 12. He won by 6.
Gallup also got the 1976 wrong and underestimate Reagan in 1980.
Start Acting Like Republicans.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Well said Michael T. Do we believe our own pollster do we believe the MSM.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
2004 Election
Actual result: Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3% (+2.4)
RCP average: Bush 48.9%; Kerry 46.9% (+2.0)
Final Gallup poll: Bush 49.0%; Kerry 47.0% (+2.0)
2000 Election
Presidential Poll Performance 2000
http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20
October 31st, 2008 at 4:48 pm
#2 is correct this is a infomercial bounce. Its funny how all of us on here say that polls that have McCain down are not legit and the ones that have him ahead are legit. I guess thats just how political bias works.
The state polls are what matter folks and untill that changes to 200 something respectively then its going to be a long fight.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:50 pm
#23 Arrron makes a good point the gallup poll was not far off from the 2004 eleection and RCP was not either………..they actualy for both Kerry and Bush underest for both of them by two points