Jay Cost has recently had two good posts up about the recent polls, here and here. They’re both well worth the read, but the gist is that the national polls are showing variance that can’t be explained just by sampling error.
Instead, pollsters seem to have two different views of what the electorate will look like. Indeed, most of the movement that has occurred in the polling average can be explained by different pollsters entering and exiting the average. Last week the average was at roughly a six-point Obama advantage, but that quickly changed upwards with the addition of the NBC/WSJ poll and the CBS/NYT poll. The polls themselves didn’t change much (the seven tracking polls that were in the average at this point have barely moved in their avaerage), but the pollsters in the average have.
So what we’ve seen is some pollsters, such as IBD/TIPP and Battleground, have fairly consistently showed a 3-point race or so. Other pollsters, such as CBS/NYTimes have consistently been at the high end of the spectrum. Rasmussen has more consistently been in the middle, with an Obama lead of 6-8 points.
We see a similar effect in some states. Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio all have had a number of polls in recent weeks outside of each others’ error margins. Rasmussen and Quinnipiac have consistently been on the opposite ends of the Ohio spectrum. This is complicated by the fact that individual states tend to be less frequently polled than the nation as a whole, and tend to have less reputable pollsters or less experienced pollsters in them (Big 10 Battleground anyone?), and that their polls tend to have smaller samples, making it more difficult to sniff out outliers.
The upshot of this is that I’m not sure polling averages will be all that useful this year. Poll aggregation assumes that the pollsters are working off of basically the same script, and that you can thereby treat them as a single giant sample. This has the advantage of canceling (or at least reducing the effect of) the outliers.
But when the pollsters have fundamentally different views of the electorate for their models, you can’t do this anymore. If one pollster thinks there will be a massive upsurge in the youth vote, and one pollster doesn’t, and they weight their polls accordingly, then they aren’t working off the same script. This is always somewhat of the case, but I think it’s more pronounced this time, given substantial uncertainty as to the eventual makeup of the election. As I said, given the number of apparently outlying polls that Cost identifies, I think that’s the only conclusion we can draw. Pollsters just aren’t polling the same election. You may as well try to aggregate the North Carolina and Virginia polls in order to predict Virginia.
Back in August, I said that the million dollar question this election was the makeup of the electorate. I think that’s still the million dollar question. If IBD/TIPP or Battleground have the correct model for the electorate, then we can guess that the state polls showing the closer race are the correct ones. Given that IBD/TIPP and Battleground don’t poll states, we might even see several results to the right of what all the most pro-McCain polls are showing. And if that’s the case, a comeback and/or a win for McCain is still possible.
If, on the other hand, Pew has it right, McCain is probably down ten in Ohio, down seven in Florida, down eleven in Virginia, and down five in North Carolina. In which case, it really is all over but the shouting. And we can be certain there will be plenty of that.
But the bottom line is that this isn’t likely to be an election where all the pollsters can write off their error as being the error margin. Someone is going to be really, really wrong.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Exhibit A
October 28th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
My guess is 90% of them are crap made to try and lower GOP turnout. Rassmussen is legit but imo he is giving Dem ID at least 1.5% too much in his weighting. Pew is straight crap – Obama will be very hard pressed to even win FL by 1% – dont belive those polls about FL. Obama would need black turnout at a crazy % to even have a chance here. Even if Obama wins you will see states where the state poll avg misses the outcome by 8% or more.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Seanm, what would be your best guess?
October 28th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2008_trk102808.pdf
This is the biggest joke of a poll I have ever seen – It says Obama is beating McCain by 25% in New Hampshire…
October 28th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
My bet goes out on the enhanced turnout election.
People are real pissed off and many are are looking for a target
October 28th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Aron – the UNH/WMUR poll is way off on the 1st CD. Gov Lynch will probably win by at least 30% (his popularity is sky high even though he and the Dem legislature just raised the state budget 17% and we are $350mil or so in the red). The 2nd CD race will probably finish up about where they say as well. Jennifer Horn is a horrible candidate who stands for nothing and has no campaign to speak about, apparently.
The Senate race and the Pres race will be MUCH closer than anyone thinks. There is movement up here towards the GOP on the national and local level. I still say McPalin wins NH, Bradley wins the 1st CD, and Sununu keeps his seat in a shocker.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
mike – how about you click on Aron’s link?
October 28th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
pea-jay, maybe they are using the enhanced turnout model in that NH Obama by 25% poll.. you can’t make this stuff up..
October 28th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
the pollsters have a reputation to uphold – and it really is quite a coveted spot to be the ‘most accurate’ poll prior to the vote… watch for these numbers to change wildly over the weekend as they try their best to have the Monday figures get as close to tuesday’s numbers as possible.
right now they can do whatever they are motivated to do so long as they don’t get too carried away – what is strange is that some of the pollsters seem to clearly have gone too far in their voter composition assumptions
time will tell. I suspect that if we’re looking at a 1-3 point race on Monday, team Obama will be dumping major bricks
October 28th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Ray Brun, That is funny – I hadnt clicked that before I posted it.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
anyone see the redstate article? the one where mittbots area trying to swiftboat palin? it’s worth a read fo’ shizzle.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Sampo, link?
October 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/28/on-the-romneybot-attacks-against-sarah-palin/
October 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
KABOOM!
http://www.nysun.com/new-york/mideast-parley-takes-ugly-turn-at-columbia-u/8725/
Now if we can only get our hands on that pesky video of the event… stay tuned…
October 28th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
So, the good news is that Rasmussen released a poll that has Wicker up in his Mississippi run by 11%. Assuming this is the case, that makes both Collin’s and Wicker’s seat safe and narrows it to 9 the number of senate seats the Democrats could legitimately pull off. While 9 is the magic number, we need every single senator we can get to get a filibuster done as I am sure not all of them will stand up for us in the face of such a Democratic onslaught (especially those from blue states). Here are the latest spreads from realclearpolitics…
Maine Collins Rep up 14.2
Mississippi Wicker Rep up 8.4
Kentucky McConnel Rep up 3.6
Georgia Chambliss Rep up 2.2
Alaska Begich Dem down 0.6
Minnesota Franken Dem down 0.7
North Car. Hagan Dem down 2.0
Oregon Merkley Dem down 3.5
New Hamp. Shaheen Dem down 8.6
Colorado Udall Dem down 11.3
New Mexico Udall Dem down 17.6
I think we will keep Kentucky, but I am scared about all the others…
However, even with the latest news on Stevens, I still think that race is winnable and if things break our way, we could also get away with only 3 losses
October 28th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Jeff – people care about the economy. Team McPalin have finally found their stride w/ the socialism attack and they shouldn’t veer from that path.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
#15 – we will keep ME, KY, GA, and NH.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
#15 – we will keep ME, KY, GA, MS, and NH.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
Sorry for the double post.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Just so everyone is on the same page, I warn you ahead of time that Zogby gap should widen 1-2 points tonight as the day of only a 3% gap will come off the books. If McCain stays within 4% or only goes down to 5%, McCain will have had a good night of polling again.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
barack husein obama jr. is an opportunist
he has a direct Kenya biological father, barack obama senior, but he choose to be US citizen
he has a chance to be his step father’s citizen, Lolo Soetoro , but he choose to be US citizen
he come at the exact time, and an exact condition, when W Bush has made this great country into deep crisis
so, no matter Mavericks working hard, it seems useless
but I do hope John Mc Cain’s office is in White House , Washington DC, for next 4 years,
as John ever mentioned, he just want to reign 1 term , then John will get retired, Palin will replace his place
my other point to you all (Republicans)
if Republicans still maitain a corruption officer like Alaska Senator,
and Republicans still has a nominated president like W Bush,
bye bye my love
Dems’s nominated president will be more worthed than Reps,
tks
October 28th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
my favourite Presidents from Republicans
1. Abraham Lincoln
2. Ronald Reagan
2. Richard Nixon
from Dems
1. John Fitzgerald Kennedy
October 28th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
20- It is no longer good enough to say that a down 3 day will fall off
so it is ok if we fall further behind. McCain needs several days in a row
where he is down less than 3.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
18 – I think we also have a legitimate shot a Minnesota, North Carolina, and Alaska (I do think Alaska is 50/50…as long as this poll stays within 2-3% Stevens should win given the Native Americans who love him there).
I would think NH & OR are outside shots at 30/70. Colorado and New Mexico unfortunately already seem out of play (I hope I am wrong).
The only chance for a Rep pick-up is Louisiana, but I think we have a better chance at saving Colorado vs. picking that state up.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Thursday’s numbers are the ones I want to see with the tracking polls.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
my current favourite to be US President ( 2009 – 2012 ):
JOHN MC CAIN !
why?
1. He is almost sacrifice his life for the glorius of his country
2. If John Mc Cain and other US troops did not come to Vietnam, fought with communists, there will be domino effect (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia will be communist countries)
3. point 2, US has already established to be the world leader since world war II, to make peace for world
4. the great nation is whom appreciate their Hero,
5. John Mc Cain has to wait for two terms for W Bush,
6. In his 70′s , John Mc Cain sincerely willing to dedicate for his country and maybe world
7. Even baby O jr. lead in almost every poll, John Mc Cain still get his confidence to win this election
8. John Mc Cain only want to reign for 1 term, then he will be replaced by his successor (Sarah Palin ?)
no. 9 : thanks for you all to read this post.
no. 10 : I do believe, John Mc Cain will win this election, Nov 04th 2008 !
TK
October 28th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
if barack husein obama jr. electec this year
US will be reigned by a foreigner for the first time of US history
George Washington, Thomas Jefferson,John Adams, James Madison, Alexander Hamilton,John Hancock,Benjamin Franklin will be really shock with this situation.
the Founding Fathers will be no objection with Collin Powel,or Condoleeza Rice, because Powel and Rice are US native.
but who will know of the name barack? husein? or obama? for the last 15 years ago??
October 28th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
23 – Zogby has the race at 4.3%. With a day of 3% rolling off, that means the other 2 days were at an average of 5%.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Why McCain is getting hosed in the press
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081028/pl_politico/14982
October 28th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
McCain, Palin urge convicted senator to step down
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081029/pl_nm/us_usa_crime_stevens_11;_ylt=Aq0qftaiavU.sBaoYWgFHI7Cw5R4
October 28th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
28-Yes I am aware of that but at this late date he should replace that down 3 day with
another down 3 day at least.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
TonyK,
Alexander Hamilton couldn’t run for president because he was born on the Caribbean island of Nevis.
October 29th, 2008 at 7:21 am
#32
many countries adopted amendment and regulation for the President nominated, by tree family ancestor, (both father and mother)
barack husein obama jr. only from his mother Sarah, not his father.
of course Osama bin Laden jr. the III can not be president US if he was born in Kabul Afghanista, but if Osama bin Laden jr. the III can be president US nominated by Dem Party if he was born in Hawaii state.
comprehende ? !