Could it be because campaign internals only show Obama up by 2% there?
Secondly, is this story simply the result of a “rogue” staffer, or is this a Obama Campaign PSYOP? Is PA really up for grabs?
For more on this, listen in here.
Update: Sean adds the following to the discussion:
“Campaign polling is important because they get to see the questions below the toplines. They know who the undecideds are, how strong support is, and yes, they get to ask these questions over a longer time period, so you’re less likely to see outliers.
If you want to know what the internal polling was showing, just look at what campaigns are doing. Obama would not be running a saturation media campaign in Western PA if he didn’t see something that bothered him. McCain wouldn’t be abandoning CO for PA if polling really showed him down 5 in the former and down 11 in the latter, and if he didn’t see something in the internals in PA that he liked.”
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:10 am
The mainstream liberal media is wanting to crush the GOP’s spirits also. I think PA must be within striking distance to McCain in his internals or he wouldnt be camped out there like he is.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:13 am
to Kavon W. Nikrad,
McCain still contesting in Pennsylvania, coz he is a kind of soldier and hero,
that kind of man, will never give up till the last blood
that makes McCain could survive from Veitcong’s hell jail
that makes McCain still alive as today
that makes McCain be able to lead America out from crisis
that makes McCain is eligible to go to White House on Jan 20th 2009
end of discussion.
tks
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:16 am
Team Obama’s gotta be worried that blacks in Philly won’t turn out if they believe the state is already won big for Obama.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 am
Kavon,
So sorry that you had to venture into ‘enemy’ territory (DailyKos) to find that story.
Thank you for your bravery.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
There’s no reason to believe that internal polling by either of the campaigns is more accurate than the public polling (unless they are using huge sample sizes). The public polling organizations have been doing this for a long time, and their reputations depend on their accuracy. I think the 2% lead in the leaked internal is based on one (or more) of three things. First, it could simply be an outlier, under circumstances where every other poll conducted recently shows a double digit lead for Obama. Second, it could be psyops, with the Obama campaign trying to draw the McCain campaign into a state where it has little chance. Third, we could be missing some important information. Maybe Obama leads by 2% among men, or veterans, or in a certain region of the state, and somewhere within the rumor mill that info got dropped.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
Kerry won PA by 2 1/2 points. I don’t see any way that McCain is going to do better statewide than Bush did. I don’t believe he’s down by double digits. But it’s probably a 5 or 6 point-race.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
There are many reasons why McCain is staying in PA, this is just another one.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com…ama-to-return/
Quote:
CNN) — Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger.
Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.
“I don’t want to be selfish,” Rendell said. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”
Obama’s support appears to be weakest in the western part of the state, a region Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha recently called ‘racist,’ and one where he badly lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
Obama last campaigned in Pennsylvania on October 11, a week and a half ago. VP candidate Joe Biden made an appearance with Bill and Hillary Clinton in Scranton on October 12. McCain and running mate Sarah Palin have both made visits to the state this week.
The latest CNN poll of polls in Pennsylvania suggests Obama hold a 13 point lead over McCain there. CNN currently considers the state leaning Obama.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Big S – ever the pessimist. Why again do you want McCain to lose and who do you want to be the GOP standard bearer in 2012?
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
I really, seriously doubt that McCain is really within the MoE in PA.
What is it about the internals that should make them so much more reliable than trusted national pollsters, anyway? No one wants to be known as the next ARG.
PA is being contested because it’s McCain’s last hope, as he sees CO and VA slipping away. If he wins PA, he can afford to lose both. Better to focus his energies there rather than on two different sides of the country.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:30 am
3 – not only that but the ‘community organizers’ in Philly are protesting that obama might not be giving them walking around money to get out the vote…
There are a TON of racist and redneck votes in western PA to factor in as well…
If McCain takes PA, he’s got the WH… That’s what has Rendell so fired up pleading with Obama to campaign in the state again.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:31 am
Does Gov Rendell pull the plug on his machine and cost OBiden the race to pay back his long time friends the Clintons and set Hillary up for 2012?
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
I once read an article on why internals are better. As I remember, Presidential campaigns have the money to poll far, far, larger sample sizes, and to do so continuously. They also ask questions the public pollsters do not. The pollsters that do the polling for campaigns (e.g., Tarrance) are just as large and well established as the public pollsters, and have track records that can be verified by future campaigns and thus have their reputations to protect, too.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
David Abecunas, a 35-year-old firefighter, voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries, saying he “trusted her more” than Sen. Obama. He plans to vote for Sen. McCain in November. Mr. Abecunas’s wife, Amy, is still undecided.
“It’s more popular to support Obama,” Ms. Abecunas, an avid fan of Sen. Clinton, said at a McCain rally here. “And I think when people actually go to vote, they might choose McCain in private, you know what I mean?”
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
I once read an article on why internals are better. As I remember, Presidential campaigns have the money to poll far, far, larger sample sizes, and to do so continuously. They also ask questions the public pollsters do not. The pollsters that do the polling for campaigns (e.g., Tarrance) are just as large and well established as the public pollsters, and have track records that can be verified by future campaigns and thus have their reputations to protect, too.
I don’t deny that the track records are still important. I’m just wondering why companies that poll for internal numbers would be more accurate than, say, Rasmussen.
If huge sample sizes can be used, then, yes, that would be a reason (although technically, the major-company polls would still be accurate, I guess [MoE]).
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
First of all, I don’t want McCain to lose (although I do want Sarah Palin to lose – I’m divided). Second, I’m not really being a pessimist. I’m just not ready to hang my hopes on a rumor of a private poll, when mountains of public polling information indicate otherwise. I wouldn’t hit on King/10 in blackjack, either.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
I used to think he was going to do that but I don’t anymore. Obama’s national lead is just too much. He could conceivably win anyway even if he lost PA.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 am
First of all, I don’t want McCain to lose (although I do want Sarah Palin to lose – I’m divided).
Tell me about it!
The CNN interview from yesterday was pretty good, but, well, there’s the soft bigotry of low expectations for you.
First and foremost, it’s Nobama that’s the priority for me, but I don’t want Palin as our party’s future. There will be a silver lining if/when Mac loses, I guess.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Second, I’m not really being a pessimist. I’m just not ready to hang my hopes on a rumor of a private poll, when mountains of public polling information indicate otherwise.
You’re seeing what’s there, rather than what you want to see (paging JA Pruce).
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
I’d be surprised if the McCain campaign had more resources to dedicate to polling PA than, say, Gallup. The idea that they ask questions that the public pollsters do not is interesting, but they’d have to come up with some good ones to get additional hidden information that’s worth 10 percentage points of public opinion.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:44 am
That’s pretty much where I am too. I gave her a shot. I’m underwhelmed.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:46 am
That’s pretty much where I am too. I gave her a shot. I’m underwhelmed.
I wanted to like her, but wow, Meg Whitman is looking like a pretty goddamn awesome VP choice right now, isn’t she? Oh, well. Coulda shoulda woulda.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:47 am
I don’t dislike Palin. She’s just clearly not ready to be President if need be. Obama isn’t either, though — obviously.
I do love a lot of people that would be in Mac’s cabinet, so that factors into my vote. Fiorina, Whitman, Lieberman, Giuliani — what an awesome cabinet!
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:52 am
Neither Obama nor Palin are ready. The problem is that in picking her, McCain sacrificed the experience argument. It wouldn’t have been bad if a) she wasn’t so WOEFULLY unprepared in the Couric interview and b) the campaign didn’t give the impression that they were tucking her away and trying to hide her from the press. Now it may well be that McCain’s experience card wouldn’t win the game this time around. But at least before Palin he had the card to play. The media successfully made it seem like McCain had a lapse in judgment by picking her. That she was so obviously in over her head validated the media’s claims in the eyes of many . That’s what really burns my ass.
McCain and Co. knew at the beginning that they were going to push the storyline that she was a lightweight and not ready. They should have made sure she was ready. And if it wasn’t possible for that to happen then she shouldn’t have been chosen.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
McCain, if he couldn’t have Lieberman, wanted to steal the “change” card. He also wanted to pick a woman. And I suppose an executive. Who is pro-life.
Why the hell was Meg Whitman passed over?
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:55 am
I’m actually not that worried about whether or not Obama is ready. He’s shown that he can put together and run a top-notch organization (his campaign) and that he knows where he is deficient (see the Biden VP pick). I agree with him more than I do McCain on most social issues, as well. There are really only a few things that make me really worry about Obama – foremost among which are his support of card check and his rhetoric on Iraq and NAFTA. Those are big issues, though. It’s a good thing that I live in a deep blue state where the Electoral College votes are pretty much pre-determined, so I don’t have to worry about making a decision on election day.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
So now you get to be qualified for the presidency by running for it competently? Well, sign me up! I think he’ll find that dealing with Iran is slightly different than getting swooning cult members to give him $150,000,000. Maybe he can fundraise us out of our deficit, though?
Even if you buy the managed-his-campaign-well argument, which I don’t, he’s still a horrid charlatan and a manipulative liar, anyway, though. -shrug-
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
Thinking Person, it turned out Meg Whitman was pro-choice.
Also, Team McCain surely has more $$$ to poll PA than Gallup or Rasmussen does. Think about it.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Thinking Person, it turned out Meg Whitman was pro-choice.
Oh. I was confusing her with Fiorina, then. Now she would have made a high-risk, high-reward VP choice. Sure, she called outsourcing ‘rightsourcing’ — and then she’d say: What about it? Let’s explain economics to Americans, here.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
I’m convinced now that McCain can’t win without Pennsylvania. McCain’s going to drop at least one close must-win state somewhere and he’s going to need the cussion to make up the lost votes.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:03 am
I’m convinced now that McCain can’t win without Pennsylvania. McCain’s going to drop at least one close must-win state somewhere and he’s going to need the cussion to make up the lost votes.
Right. He’s doing this because he sees CO and VA slipping away. Which is amazing. NC is increasingly bad, but if he’s gonna lose NC, he’s not gonna win, anyway.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 am
Team McCain had $80 million to spend starting at the beginning of September, and they’ve burned through a good amount of that campaigning throughout the country over the last seven weeks. How much are they really dedicating to polls in PA?
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:06 am
Our own polls apparently look good for PA.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 am
To some extent, yes. Aren’t campaigns what we base a lot of our judgement on, anyway? I think Obama could handle the demands of the office pretty well, but I’m not sure I want him to succeed in all of his goals.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:13 am
I have never heard anyone ever contend that internal campaign polling is less accurate than public polls like Gallup.
The fact that campaign’s internal polling is considered more reliable than public polling is pretty much Politics 101.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
#31: Several million of that is for polling the battleground states. What do you think Rasmussen’s budget is for that? Who’s paying his bills?
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
#32 John is not stupid. A few days ago a fellow over at Red State posted in his diary a comment that his female boss made to him after she met a Obama pollster for lunch. It has stuck with me ever since. She was asked what she thought of Palin. She answered she might not have as much experience as I would like but I’m going to vote McCain. Curious, she asked her lunch companion “Why do you ask.? Now this is paraphrased but it goes something like this: Our pollsters are having a difficult time getting a handle on her impact on the race to turn out voters and the EFFECT SHE IS HAVING ON CERTAIN GROUPS OF VOTERS THAT USUALLY AREN’T INTERESTED IN POLITICS. That my friends, is why Obama and his team are worried and why PA may go McCain-Palin.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
Don’t forget that the internals ask all sorts of questions that help the candidates frame their speeches. Things like are tax cuts important to you.
I would bet that McCain’s internals show that PA is in play because of soft support for Obama. There have been a few public polls to show soft support around the edges for Obama. Joe the plumber and the “spread the wealth around” phrase may have made many many people uneasy about going blue.
If McCain could frame a split your vote message without looking defeatist I think it would resonate.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
I don’t get the dislike some conservatives feels for Sarah Palin. Experience is important but is not everything, if you look the four candidates (Obama, Biden, McCain and Palin) the more erratic of those are McCain and Biden.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Let’s face it if any of us were running for President and knew we had to get 270 EV, we would create different scenarios to get there. This is what the McCain campaign has done. Like every contender McCain has a core of support that will not go away (Deep South (not Florida, NC, or VA), Utah, Idaho, Montana, ND, SD, Arizona, Texas, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, KY, WVir, Alaska and probably Indiana); then there are the states that McCain has to accept he has no chance in: the NE corridor (except NH), Illinois, Michigan, the West Coast) and then the rest which remain competitive:Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, NH, PA, Colorado, NM, NV, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Bush won 286 EV by holding the core and winning in Florida, NC, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, and NM. Now pundits are saying that McCain will have a hard time holding on to all of these states. Many are conceding that Iowa and NM are gone for sure. Let me remphasize this point, even though early voting has begun, the bulk of the voters will go to the polls on November 4-nothing is a done deal; Sarah is visiting Iowa this Saturday; if Iowa was written off why would she go there; I’m beginning to get the impression that even NM may be still in play; as of today John is up in Florida and Ohio, tied in or closely behind in NC and trailing in VA; He is dead even in Missouri and Nevada and trailing by 5 points in Colorado-and that was before Sarah’s 3 monster rallies there on Monday. Sure do you wish that McCain was farther ahead in Ohio and Florida, Do you wish it wasn’t such a nail-biter in NC, Missouri, and Nevada? Do you hope that the polls in VA and CO. soon turn around? Folks, the state polls are already beginning to turn. I know we’re all worried about Virginia, but if John can pull the upset in PA all will be forgiven. Let’s trust that John knows what he is doing. After all he did select Sarah and how do think that has turned out? And if John wins PA, a lot of it will because of the goodwill that Sarah has spread over the last 6 weeks. By the way she will In Beaver, PA today. In conclusion, you knew beforehand that if John and Sarah pulled this off it would be close. Folks, this is close. Get used to it. Don’t believe polls that show Obama with a double-digit lead. And finally have faith in Sarah Palin-even the Obama pollster didn’t know what to make of her.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
By whom? I’ll read any reasonable sources anyone throws my way.
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
20
“I gave [Palin] a shot. I’m underwhelmed.”
So are you overwhe
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:51 am
#38 Palin has been fairly consistent, yes, but consistently underwhelming
October 22nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
20
“I gave [Palin] a shot. I’m underwhelmed.”
The only thing I’m underwhelmed by is McCain and his campaign’s staggering inability to make an eceonomic argument.
The more I think about it, Palin did very well during the VP debate considering the circumstances that her career was on the line as well as the campaign’s, the environment is terrible for Republicans, her opponent being formidable which was noticeable when he finally woke up 30 minutes in, and McCain has NO domestic agenda and an unpopular interventionist foreign policy.
How does any Republican advocate for McCain over the course of 90 minutes with a hand tied because of the very limited parameters of McCain’s domestic agenda and a foreign policy most are fed up with?
I have no idea how impressed with Palin I am. And it doesn’t matter because I have to see if she even wants to be a national political leader after this.
Does she even run in 2010?
Does she win?
Does she maintain her popularity and/or get that pipeline built or some other major accomplishment?
Does McCain lose this year to even put the above questions in play?
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Big S. #40,
How about any freshman political science professor from the community college level to the Ivy League?
You should really just quit digging on this one…
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:04 am
**Post has been updated.** Please head back to the top of the page to read Sean Oxendine’s thoughts.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
#43 That as a VP candidate Sarah always performs before SRO crowds should be a sign to anybody that she is a rock-star of the likes of Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, or Wayne Gretzky in the sense of changing the dynamios of a situation. Given where we stand right now in the race, John would probably lose. But we still have 12 days left to go in the campaign. The undecideds by definition have not voted yet. Sarah talked yesterday about how shabbily Obama treats women, especially Hillary Clinton. However, although some ‘pure’ Republicans and conservative may find the thought repugnant, Sarah’s influence to bring out a huge PUMA vote for the McCain ticket may be the deciding factor in the election. Don’t let the MSM string you a line that Sarah has had no influence on the PUMA vote-as Sarah would say-NONSENSE! Plus the PUMA’s have instructed their membership to lie to pollsters and say they are enthusiastic supporters of Obama.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:06 am
Drudge now reporting Obama has spent $21.5 MILLION on internal polling!
1. Do you still think Gallup and Rasmussen have superior resources?
2. Does it say anything that Obama has spent that much on polling and is very concerned about PA?
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
Metro #47,
Big S. is obviously in over his/her head here and apparently doesn’t know when to stop digging himself/herself in deeper.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
I realize that this in no longer 2004, but for what it is worth, our internal pollsters were more accurate than the public pollsters in 2004.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
#48, Big S,
In my younger and sexier days, while volunteering for candidates, I was involved in polling for the respective campaigns.
After the first or second question (are you registered), NOT ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I/WE ASKED WERE BEING ASKED BY POLLSTERS (from what I read in newspapers). The questions were completely different. At time, elements of “push-polling” were included, as well as understanding the mood and concerns of the voter.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:22 am
#50: Kristofer, if you were phone-banking, that is not part of the official polling. Phone banking identifies voters for GOTV the efforts but is not a scientific poll.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
#51, we were absolutely taking a poll.
Usually;
#1 – Are you planning on voting/registered…
#2 – Voting preference
The Ph.D’s then usually handed us a list of questions to ask, usually to profile voters, voting patterns, commitment to their candidates, and in this case, understanding the impact of race and culture in PA is probably being drawn out by internal polling.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:30 am
OK, you were indeed working for the internal pollster then.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:52 am
#49
Exactly.
How many of the polls in 2004 showed Kerry ahead or beating Bush. Quite a few. In fact before October 31st they showed him leading very comfortably in the electoral college. Then on the 31st the polls shifted. Now you can argue that the undecideds made a decision or MSM bias, it doesn’t matter. There was a shift at the end of October and we will see a shift at the end of this October.
Also, I still believe there is a small but consistent Bradley effect out there. To me there was evidence of it in some of Hillary’s come from behind wins in OH and PA. There are stories by the pundits right now poo pooing the idea, but I don’t buy it.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
52. Exactly. McCain is probably seeing that, while he’s only down 5 or so in CO, none of his proposed attacks resonate with undecideds, and concluded that they are leaning Obama. He (and Obama judging from the spending) and Obama probably see something very different.