SurveyUSA Ohio General Election
- John McCain 49% (49%)
- Barack Obama 48% (45%)
Survey of 693 likely voters was conducted September 28-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 12-14 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
McCain leads by 17 points among those who earn more than $50,000 a year. Obama leads by 21 points among those who earn less than $50,000 a year. McCain leads 5:4 in Columbus, Cincinnati, and Toledo. Obama leads 5:4 in greater Cleveland. McCain and Obama are effectively tied in Dayton. McCain leads by 12 points among whites; Obama leads by 69 points among blacks. 65% of likely voters say the next president should focus on the economy ahead of all other issues: among that group, Obama leads 5:4. 9 of 10 Republicans vote for McCain; 8 of 10 Democrats vote for Obama; independents are tied. Among men, McCain today leads by 5 points, down from 13 points two weeks ago; among women, Obama today leads by 2, down slightly from 4 points two weeks ago. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama and McCain were and are tied. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 10; now, Obama and McCain tie among these voters. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain had led by 10, now leads by 2.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Im just waiting for JA Pruce to declare that this poll is bunk, as it only shows McCain one point ahead.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
At least, McCain is up in Ohio!
September 30th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Its a bit of a surprise, but at this point it looks more likely that Obama will win Virginia or North Carolina than Ohio. Who’d have thought that a while ago?
September 30th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
This poll shows a six point party ID edge for Democrats. In 2006, a favorable year for Democrats, it was 3 points. Even with that, McCain is still ahead, so it’s safe to say that McCain is leading in Ohio. I’ll beat JA Pruce to it. This poll is bunk, but it’s not too far off, just slightly skewed. We probably have a 3-4 point lead in Ohio.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
If they tie seniors on election day I will eat might left foot. Anyone keeps harping on the Cell Phone effect, but I’m starting to think that a Call Id Effect that is underpolling older voters who are more likely according to studies to use Caller Id and not answer the phone.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
McCain suspends a national campaign, tries to delay a presidential debate but ends up attending it anyway even though Congress had not by that time put together a deal, the deal he tried to forge in Washington fails miserably, he muzzles his highly popular VP pick and botches her relations with the public and the media, he continues to lobby hard for a US$ 1 trillion bailout of Wall Street shareholders that voters overwhelmingly reject just like he lobbied so hard for his ill-fated immigration legislation, he gets denounced by the media for his lack of leadership and he gets abandoned by Hill Republicans who think more of their constituencies and their principles and of the future of our troubled Republic than of their dim-witted party leadership, and McCain’s not down by 20 points?
Dudes, I would say it’s Obama who has a problem, a big huge problem.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
“Highly popular”?
September 30th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Once the bailout passes, McCain will take the lead
October 1st, 2008 at 1:00 am
I agree that this video is pretty damning for Obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RZVw3no2A4
You really have to watch it.
October 1st, 2008 at 3:04 am
#9: Yup, it’s the most powerful video I’ve seen this election cycle. McCain could win on this alone. Once the rescue plan passes, McCain will take the gloves off.
October 1st, 2008 at 9:01 am
We have been waiting for McCain to take the glove for weeks now. His campaign was on fire when they announced Palin and since then they have gone into hiding. They are making stops in Iowa??? All of a sudden they have the biggest tin ears and need to their heads out of their arses and playing to win.