InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Virginia General Election
- Barack Obama 51% (46%)
- John McCain 45% (48%)
Survey of 436 likely voters was conducted September 29. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17 are in parentheses.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
The poll was conducted almost 2 weeks ago. Still disappointing. But look at it this way. There could be a bradly effect, and it’s the electoral votes that are important. It dosen’t matter if McCain win’s Virginia by 0.5% or 20%.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
Chip,
This poll was conducted yesterday.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
This poll is bunk – oversamples Dems.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
I wonder what the Dem/GOP split was… But, this is not good news for McCain. VA should be an easy win for him, especially with the strong navy presence in that state.
September 30th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
I wonder what the Dem/GOP split is in this poll. All I have from Virginia that breaks it down to a Dem/GOP party ID is Survey USA and PPP. When adjusted for 2000,2004, or 2006 numbers, they are all showing a race somewhere between a tie and a 3 point lead for McCain in Virginia. None of the adjusted polls shows an Obama lead in Virginia no matter which year’s turnout you use. Only if the turnout is more Democratic than either 2000 or 2006 does Obama have a chance of winning in Virginia. Those polls are from a couple of weeks ago though, so we’ll see.
September 30th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Not buying it. The GOP advantage in VA is such that it won’t flip when Obama only leads within the MOE.