Rasmussen Virginia General Election
- Barack Obama 50% (50%)
- John McCain 47% (45%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 55% (54%) / 44% (45%) [+11%]
- Barack Obama 55% (58%) / 44% (40%) [+11%]
Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted September 28. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Obama has a solid 52% to 41% lead among unaffiliated voters in Virginia. While Obama leads 56% to 40% among women in Virginia, McCain leads 55% to 42% among men.
While 38% of Virginia voters say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency, just 28% say that of a McCain presidency. However, 40% say they would not be comfortable at all with Obama in the White House, while 37% say that about McCain.
While 30% of voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Joe Biden as the Vice President, 26% say that of Sarah Palin. A third of voters (33%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden as VP, while nearly half (45%) say that of Palin.
Voters in Virginia trust McCain slightly more than Obama overall, but they trust Obama more on the economy and jobs by a 50% to 45% margin. Not surprisingly, the economy is the top electoral issue for the plurality of Virginia voters. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama is trusted more on the economy by a 52% to 38% margin.
McCain still has the edge on national security in Virginia, leading Obama 52% to 44% on that issue.
In Virginia, 80% of voters say they are certain of their voting choice, while 20% say they might change their minds before Election Day.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Is the McCain slump starting to end?
September 29th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Obama’s pursuit of Virginia is amazing, and his poll numbers continue to hold up (unlike states like Montana & Ohio).
He really could pull Virginia off, despite not having any of the three (Kaine, Warner, AWebb) on the ticket. Why is McCain so weak here? With the Vets and the solid voting history, you’d think it was a lock.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Considering that happened today in financial world, McCain has one hell of a road to travel. Frankly, at this point, I’m more concerned with McCain losing with dignity.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Jay. Northerners are moving south into VA. The state is getting blue. The state is transforming into another PA.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Not bad!
September 29th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
These polls are ridiculous. McCain won’t lose VA or NC.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
I live in VA now and I think that it’s turning blue for several reasons.
1) Blue staters have been moving to red states for awhile now. Heck, I’m one of them; I moved from Michigan to DC and then to VA. This is making the red states bluer while the blue states stay blue.
2) Under-35 voters are less conservative than their elders on economics and culture. They have no interest in societal regulation of human sexuality and have no innate opposition to government action and even prefer it so that they can get low interest student loans, have good public schools to send their kids to, and have a strong infrastructure. This is basically the old Judis and Teixera argument that young white collar people in high growth areas like Northern Virginia will ultimately become liberals, even when they have to pay taxes.
3) The whole country has moved several points to the left from 2004 because the GOP is in the dumpster right now.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Ignore DaveG.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
obama is not jim webb. webb is a gun packing confederate flag flying red neck. and he beat allen by 0.3%
obama has a case of the ‘kerry-exit-poll-syndrome’
September 30th, 2008 at 12:25 am
#7 DaveG “so that they can get low interest student loans”
Which in turn of course cause tuition rates to rise …
September 30th, 2008 at 2:07 am
Dave’s on to the demographic shift…between migration and reproduction, my wisconsin-raised extended family, all left that state to settle in suburban DC and start families. All voted center left, splitting only on Bush 41 in ’88, John Warner and Tom Davis.
Since we have been in the business of growing government since Roosevelt (and W has overseen one of the largest booms), those workers have to live and vote somewhere and thanks to suburbanization, Northern VA picked up a good chunk of those people (many of which are center to left leaning politically).
Then add in immigration and you can see the roots of demographic change in action. As long as the DC area keeps growing (faster than the rest of the state) the state will eventually turn blue. If it werent for the large military presence in the Tidewater, it would already be a blue state.
September 30th, 2008 at 3:12 am
Growing government at a shameless pace is yet one more way George Bush screwed us over. If Bush didn’t spend like a drunken sailor there wouldn’t be as many government jobs to feed the beauracracy. If there weren’t as many government jobs there wouldn’t be as many liberal Democrats moving into the Old Dominion to take the Metro into DC to work. And if there weren’t as many liberal Democrats residing in NoVA then we wouldn’t be where we are now.
So Bush is partly to blame for the blue tide in VA.
September 30th, 2008 at 6:36 am
What a pathetic position we find ourselves in to have to call being down 3% in Virginia, “not bad”
September 30th, 2008 at 8:13 am
12 – Adam, that is a good point. Hadn’t thought of the thousands of govt. workers (a lot of libs) who live in VA and commute in. That sucks!