PPP (D) North Carolina General Election
- Barack Obama 47% (46%)
- John McCain 45% (46%)
Did Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?
- More likely 31% (32%)
- Less likely 28% (25%)
- No difference 41% (43%)
Did John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?
- More likely 38% (42%)
- Less likely 41% (34%)
- No difference 21% (24%)
Survey of 1,041 likely voters was conducted September 27-28. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: (D) 48%; (R) 34%; (I) 18%. Results from the poll conducted September 17-19 are in parentheses.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Don’t believe the polls. McCain won’t lose VA or NC.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Why does PPP have this obsession with showing a tied race in NC. Is it because they are a Democrat polling firm and are desperate for their state to be considered competative?
September 29th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Jonathan,
In NC, Obama currently has an 0.7 percentage point lead over McCain, according to the RCP average.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
RCP has Obama winning 301 EVs, taking IA, NM, CO, VA, and NC from the 2004 red states. FL, MO, OH, and NV are right on the edge, and if you look at the most recent couple of polls from each, it looks like McCain is ahead in each by 1 point or less (maybe 1-2 pts in MO). That’s a ton of electoral votes that could fall into Obama’s column with just another 1-2 pt national swing towards Obama. In other words, if people lose too much money because of this financial meltdown, Obama probably finishes with 360 EVs instead of 300.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
McCain WILL lose VA. NC 50/50.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
edwards was FROM north carolina and bush still won it by double digits.
its only been 4 years, not 40.
these weighted polls based on registration are faulty. they ignore the number of reagan dems who went back to the dems for clinton only, not obama.
registration has always been a terrible way to determine polls, historical trends are far more accurate. this is why battleground tracking was the most accurate last time when everyone thought kerry was headed for over 300 EC votes.
same problem this time. they don’t take into account older white dems who are flipping to mccain, who voted for kerry, clinton.
mccain is going to take PA, wisconsin, and possibly michigan. he will hold nc, virginia, and florida.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
People are so good on this website at saying “McCain will win X, Y, Z” even on posts which show polls that make it clear that such confidence is sheer folly. Its unbelieveable!
NC is going to be close. But its hard to see Obama pulling it out. Virginia is another matter though.
One thing this poll does show is the end of the Palin honeymoon.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
and when it comes to VA and NC, don’t forget about all the military personal who are likely left out of polls but whose ballots will give mccain a huge boost. plus bradley effect. obama has no shot.
September 29th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
during the GOP convention the pollsters used historical trends to weight their polls, and so mccain was seen as up 20 in NC.
the incorrect weighting based on registration is giving obama false leads and false strengths in states where he has little to no chance.
obama is not jim webb, he will not win VA. he is actually underpolling in northern VA compared to kaine and warner. so that means the polls suggest obama is getting support from red counties? that huckabee won? not likely. not even probable.
VA, NC, Florida are safe. mccain has a better shot at PA then obama does at VA
September 29th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
I thought we were gonna start grouping polls into one post so as to consolidate discussion…?
September 30th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Its hardly surprising that Obama is underpolling Warner. The guy is like 20 points up on Gilmore. It would be a worry if Obama was polling level with Warner.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:25 am
Folks, McCain is still in this game. That Colorado poll was huge — to think that McCain is within 1 even when there is a financial meltdown is encouraging.
When the word gets out that the Democrats (especially Obama) and Fannie Mae are tied at the hip, McCain will win in a landslide.
September 30th, 2008 at 1:27 am
Andrew McCain has to spend money here and take this state seriously. There is a Black effect of 98% voting for Obama. He needs to take it seriously otherwise he could lose it the same for VA remember you said that Obamas polls would go down today and they did not
September 30th, 2008 at 1:30 am
Hello All,
Remember we need to take this seriously and not kid ourselves. Remember when someone said that a Foreign policy issue or an attack would be a game changer and seal it for McCain, well the oppoiste can be said about this crisis. the longer it stays on TV the harder it is going to be. I say for Mccain to pour all his money into the biggest electoral vote battle grounds like FL,OH,Mi and Pa to a lesser and forget about NC and Va, If he loses them he loses them but if he loses one of the others its over
September 30th, 2008 at 2:01 am
The NRA ads and the 527′s reminding Reagan Dems about Wright, Rezko, Ayers, bitterclingers and BAIPA will swing NC, VA and OH in the last couple of weeks.
If we win it will be because those people ran effective campaigns against Obama, not because McCain sold himself to America or because he ran a great campaign.
September 30th, 2008 at 5:29 am
Sarah Palin is killing McCain everywhere. I wish they would just stop polling Virginia and NC. Those states are going to turn blue. If you knew what was going on the ground there now, you’d just cross them off from McCain’s list.
Wright, Rezko, Ayers, Keating 5, Hagee, etc won’t help the economy. Folks are so beat that they’ll notice any Wright, Ayers, Rezko stuff as a conclusion that Republicans have ZERO solutions facing America.
Think about it, Democrats would’ve never been able to pin George Bush on Mike Huckabee.
September 30th, 2008 at 8:08 am
16 – Sarah, I beg to differ. Palin is not “killing McCain everywhere”. McCain letting Obama’s lies go unanswered is killing McCain. I live in NC, and it will not go blue. All McCain has to do is keep hitting Wright, Rezco and Ayers and telling America that Obamanomics will KILL totally pull the plug on the economy.
September 30th, 2008 at 8:33 am
North Carolina will be fine, and if it isn’t, we’re going to lose in a landslide so who cares? You can’t pour resources into North Carolina. It’s not a critical swing state. It’s a 2nd tier swing state. Also remember that the polling in 2004 was off and Bush won it by several points more than his polling averages. It was like that all across the South where Bush won by more than polls said he would. McCain is probably ahead in North Carolina and tied in Virginia. If McCain can win Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and either Nevada or New Hampshire, it’s over folks. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota would be nice, but we don’t need them.
September 30th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Look at the Party ID in this poll. It’s a 14 point edge for Democrats. That’s ridiculous for North Carolina. In 2004, Republicans had a 1 point edge. In 2000, Democrats had a 3 point edge. I would be surprised if Democrats had more than a 6-7 point edge this year. It’s probably more likely in the 3-5 point range. Adjust this poll, and McCain is leading in North Carolina.
September 30th, 2008 at 8:48 am
why is no one talking about hte fact that Poulson pulled the $700 BILLION figure out of his @$$?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/09/bailout-plan.html
September 30th, 2008 at 11:06 am
This bailout is a killer for McCain he need to oppose this turkey link Barak Husain Obama to it and link him to Bush and Pelosi and with Palin he would be a winner he need to turn Sarah loose and let Sarah be Sarah.