Civitas/TelOpinion (R) North Carolina General Election
- John McCain 45% (47%)
- Barack Obama 45% (44%)
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 17-20. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 46% (D); 35% (R); 19% (I). Results from the poll conducted September 6-10 are in parentheses.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Don’t believe this poll.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:10 pm
11% party ID advantage in NC? Yeah, right.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:14 pm
This is a legit poll. It’s a Republican pollster and the Dems have an 11-13% party ID advantage in NC. It confirms what other pollsters have shown, the race is about tied in NC. If you need even more proof, look where Obama was yesterday… Charlotte, NC. And McCain has recently shifted resources to the state. NC is in play.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Yeah, I agree Brian. This poll is bunk.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
My gut tells me that McCain is likely up around 11% in NC – the state is safely Red.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
The poll was taken during September 17-20. These first 2-3 days of the polling were bad days for McCain, so it might not be far off.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
OK, I don’t want to sound like some of the others on here, but there does seem to be a trend developing that we are losing some of our lead in key states. It can’t be all attributed to bad polling, can it? I’m seriously asking.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:25 pm
11% more dems, what are these pollsters smokin?
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Victoria, I think you’re right. Sen McCain has taken a hit, likely due to economic concerns taking a larger role in the campaign. This time last week, I’d have been willing to think this poll was bunk on the surface. This week, it might only be a few points off. There’s a lot of race left to run, and nobody (on either side) should be complacent about their position at this point.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Victoria,
This is a bunk poll. Period. Additional polling this week will confirm that this is an outlier. Relax.
September 22nd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=33
The D+11 is correct according to the end of 2007 figures from the NC Board of Elections. People might want to do a little research before making igorant statements.
September 22nd, 2008 at 7:48 pm
There ARE more democrats in NC — there are more democrats in Arkansas for that matter also, even though they usually vote republican on presidential issues. That is how the south is set up.
Look, folks, deny it if it makes you happy — or sing happy songs about Sarah Palin — but this is not looking good. VA is clearly a tossup — not to mention OH and FL isn’t all that strong for McCain either. MI, IA, NM and CO seem to be sitting tight with Obama — in which case, he wouldn’t even need OH or VA.
I agree that most likely NC will stay with McCain, but it is close — much, much closer than any of us would have thought.
For those who care, it is time to really get behind McCain — telephone, canvass, waive signs — do whatever — and, please, get the heck off of the Sarah Palin nonsense bandwagon — either McCain will win this or he will lose it — all on his own. Denial (and feeling good about phony crowds in conservative republican areas) won’t do the trick.
For the record, I am so sorry McCain brought Schmidt into his campaign. He has really soured many people on McCain — including me — although I am attempting to attribute it to Schmidt, where it really belongs.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:14 pm
People need to stop ignoring every negative poll. Because of the extremely high AA population in NC McPalin needs to be strong in this state and work to keep it red. NC should not be taken for granted.
September 22nd, 2008 at 8:18 pm
There is NO WAY that the Dems have an 11-13% advantage in party ID in NC… the GOP had a 4 pt advantage in 2004… surely its less than that now and the Dems may have a slight 1-3 % advantage… but with that, Obama’s down pretty badly in NC. It will be closer than it was in 2004.