Yes, these are the infamous Zogby Interactive polls, so take that into account when determining their significance for yourself:
Zobgy Interactive Battleground States Poll, conducted Sept. 9th-12th, 2008
COLORADO:
- McCain 47.5%
- Obama 45.5%
FLORIDA:
- McCain 52.1%
- Obama 41.8%
MICHIGAN:
- Obama 49.0%
- McCain 43.3%
MISSOURI:
- McCain 48.5%
- Obama 42.4%
NORTH CAROLINA:
- Obama 48.1%
- McCain 46.6%
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
- McCain 49.1%
- Obama 42.8%
NEW MEXICO:
- Obama 45.6%
- McCain 44.1%
NEVADA:
- McCain 50.1%
- Obama 42.5%
OHIO:
- McCain 49.8%
- Obama 43.9%
PENNSYLVANIA:
- McCain 49.1%
- Obama 44.3%
VIRGINIA:
- McCain 50.3%
- Obama 43.8%
The 11 interactive online surveys included samples of likely voters ranging in size from 433 respondents in New Hampshire, where the margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points, to Florida, where 995 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The surveys were conducted Sept. 9-12, 2008.
Hat-Tip: R4’08 reader Eric B.
September 13th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
McCain +5 in PA?
McCain +2 in NC?
Those results show why these polls are patently bogus.
September 13th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Zogby’s record in 2004 & 2006 were accurate for 14 out of 15 states in 2004 and 100% correct for 2006 (I think … you can verify by looking at their methodology.) Their percentages were not too close to the exact values but the “winners” were quite accurate.
True, I don’t believe NC either. PA is hard to believe as well.
September 13th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
That’s quite some wacked out polling
September 13th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
frank (#2),
The numbers to which you are referring are from Zogby’s telephone surveys. And you are correct, Zogby has one of the most accurate track record in that respect. However, these polls are internet polls and, therefore, immensely less random and less accurate as a result.
September 13th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
What is up with this?
September 13th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
ZOGBY is a great pollster.
ZOGBY INTERACTIVE BLOWS!
September 13th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Please read their methodology on their site for the interactive polls. Not everybody who signed up votes. They choose a random sample, weighted; invite them to vote by an email (all participants have signed up and have a user name and password); they vote over the course of two days; they double-check 5 – 10% of the results by phone to verify and them total their results.
Although it is not as accurate as other methods, it is much better than it was in 2004.
September 13th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
pathetic ny times hit piece coming tomorrow on palin.
these lefties just don’t get it? with every hit piece more and more join mccain/palin
September 13th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
They have Palin Derangement Syndrome
September 13th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I was thinking about these Zogby polls the other day, my impression is that although the methodology might take some tweaking, the online poll is clearly the next evolution in polling. So often we talk about how the day of the week matters for polling purposes….the online poll eliminates this bias as people can take the poll whenever they want. Some other advantages:
-In order to avoid bias, a question needs to be worded neutrally, and delivered neutrally. With the online poll, the delivery is no longer an issue, thus reducing a level of bias.
-Greatly reduced cost
-There is less of a chance that someone will be embarrassed by their answer. If the person being polled does not need to speak to a live person, they might be more truthful in their answers (i.e. eliminating the bradley effect).
What does everyone think?
September 13th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
That would be great if those are accurate…
September 13th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
These are laughable.
September 13th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
PeterS: The key to accurate polling is a good sample. An online poll is not random.
September 13th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
worst. poll. ever!
September 13th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
#2 Pa is hard to believe? What insult must Obama utter against them to make you believe? He called them bitter clingers to bigotry.
Believe!
September 13th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
PA going red makes sense. Especially ,with what BO said in the middle of the PA primary about those who “cling” to certain things.
The only thing that is troublesome is this-
http://townhall.com/columnists/AmandaCarpenter/2008/09/13/obama_partisan_tampers_with_palin_subpoena_list
McCain’s team most know something about troopergate, other wise why would the risk it? This hack Sen French states a troublesome report due in Oct? Bias much?
September 14th, 2008 at 12:42 am
McCain being ahead in NH, which is basically game over for Barry, makes sense, given that rasmussen had it basically as a dead heat last month before the conventions….sorry all TROLLS above the election is over
September 14th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Election is over? Lol. “Barry” is still the big fav in NH. He received about twice as many votes than McCain in the primary (whilst coming second!).
September 14th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Joe – how can you say Barry is favored in NH? Do you forget the history McCain has with NH? Do you not understand the type of appeal Palin has in NH?
And the whole Barry received more votes than McCain is ridiculous. There were only 2 real Dems on the ticket in NH – there were 3 or 4 legit GOP candidates on the GOP ballot.