Gallup Daily General Election Tracking (9/11)
- John McCain 48%
- Barack Obama 44%
Survey of 2,737 registered voters was conducted September 8-10. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.
Gallup further analyzes the gains in Republican ID among the electorate:
The percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans has increased from 26% immediately before last week’s Republican National Convention began to 30% immediately after it. That increase, combined with a slight 2-point drop in Democratic identification from 37% to 35%, has reduced the Democrats’ formidable advantage in national party identification from 11 points to 5.
Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention — and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket — has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.
Republicans saw an even larger increase in “leaned” party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they “lean” to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.
These results are based on the Sept. 5-7 USA Today/Gallup poll, but Gallup observed similar trends in its daily tracking survey.
Image Source: Gallup
September 11th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
“Registered voters”? Looking good.
September 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I’m wondering if what we’re partially seeing is the release of the Bradley Effect. Having a woman on the ticket allows those who are sensitive to it to acknowledge they’re voting against a black man.
September 11th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
2. I doubt it. I am convinced in states like MI, OH, and PA
there will be at least a 3% bradley effect from the last state
polls not huge like with Clinton and Obama but clearly there.
September 11th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
We’re not going to need any kind of a Bradley effect to win this election. McCain is further ahead than most polls show him to be. Most of these polls are giving the Democrats a huge edge in party ID. Gallup is one of them that is not. The others will start to catch up to Gallup later, and then it will seem like McCain is pulling away from Obama, when the reality is that McCain is ahead right now. He’s about 4 ahead with registered voters as the Gallup tracking shows. He’s further ahead with “likely” voters. Obama is doing worse than Kerry did in his own party (PUMAs), and worse with independent voters than Kerry did. He’s actually doing a little better than Kerry did among Republicans, but just barely.
September 11th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
McCain ‘Freed From Prison’ Video
September 11th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
It looks like the rise for McCain has stopped over the past few days. Predictably, the post-convention bounce is over. I do, however, think we are still in the early Obama stage where celebrity status is still keeping us ahead. I pray we don’t get to the where’s-the-beef? stage that Obama has been experiencing. At the end of the day, people always vote on the issues. I still think people vote with their wallets.
September 11th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
The “Palin” bounce begins to come back to earth???
We’ll begin to see what this ticket is made of in the next couple of weeks. So far, so GREAT though!
September 11th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
McCain’s floor and ceiling have now officially switched places with Obama.