Rasmussen Texas General Election
- John McCain 50% (48%)
- Barack Obama 41% (39%)
With Leaners
- John McCain 52%
- Barack Obama 44%
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 60% / 37% (+23%)
- Barack Obama 46% / 51% (-5%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 30. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 25 are in parentheses.
July 31st, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Yeehaw. Giddeup.
July 31st, 2008 at 4:56 pm
There are a lot of Obama bumpstickers here in Texas. I have only seen one McCain bumpsticker.
July 31st, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I think the day of the bumpersticker is over. I wouldn’t have one on my car, because I’d be afraid of vandals.
That isn’t a comment about Democrats — I’d be afraid of Republican wackos, too.
July 31st, 2008 at 5:16 pm
I really don’t get this state. They’re flowing in oil money, so you’d think they’d have a positive outlook on the economy and be solidly GOP. Yet, this is the state that has given us two very big government, pro-war presidents. The only consolation I have is that once electric cars come into the mix and the oil futures markets collapse, TX will be getting some karma–and maybe a state income tax.
July 31st, 2008 at 5:50 pm
bid for Barry under 60 on Intrade………
July 31st, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Keep an eye on TX. There’s no doubt we’ll win it this year, regardless of the overall outcome of the election. But if McCain can keep TX in the Republican column by double digits we’ll know that we ought to be able to not have to sweat over it in 2012. And that’s important – because by then it will likely have 36 or 37 electoral votes.
July 31st, 2008 at 7:13 pm
The whole electoral map is going to get turned inside out next time – The South and Southwest are going to pick up a ton of votes (look for NV to become big), and the Northeast and Great Lakes region are going to lose votes – theoretically, that should favor the GOP, the problem is that the upper South (VA) is turning more blue while the Great LAkes (MI,MN,WI) are turning more red.
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Anyway, about TX – and the South in general, McCain is not going to do as well there as Bush did, simply because in the eyes of southern evangelicals, few things are going to be better than a southern evangelical.
July 31st, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Great Lakes trending red?
Uh-huh. MN has been “trending” Red since 72. I’ll only believe it after McCain wins it and WI too. Both states supported dukakis and MN was the only one that went for Mondale. Let’s not confuse a relatively balanced state for an inevitable Rep pick up.
As for post 2010 electoral vote reapportionment, it’ll probably be a wash for both parties. Republicans will pick up greater margins in TX, AZ, UT but lose them for sure in LA, and probably one of the interior Southern states with slower growth. Dems will lose in the NE and pick up on the west coast. Many of the perpetual swing states will grow: think CO, NM, NV, FL and some will shrink: OH, PA
Long term, the Republican party is hosed if they can’t (1) limit new immigration and (2) appeal to those immigrants (and kids). They’re losing Hispanics (cubans excepted), Asians (Vietnamese excepted) and aren’t doing to well with the second and third generation either. Don’t tell me “oh they got 40% of the Hispanic vote last time” because they lost the other 60%, if it was even that close. If your party is gaining one new member for every two the other one gets, you are still falling behind. If trends continue as they are, Texas and Georgia will be the new swing states, FL, VA, and the entire Southwest will be moderately blue, and today’s blue bastions (CA) will be uncrackable.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:15 pm
#6 – Act: “The South and Southwest are going to pick up a ton of votes (look for NV to become big)”
Depends on your definition of “big”, I guess. Nevada will have 6 electoral votes in 2012, one more than now.
The most likely results of the reapportionment, based on 2007 census estimates and assuming proportionate growth for 2007-10:
OH loses 2, IA,IL,LA,MA,MI,MO,NJ,NY,PA lose 1 each.
GA,NV,OR,UT gain 1 each, AZ and FL gain 2 each, TX gains 3.
That’s a net gain of 5 EVs for the Republicans (based on how the states voted in 2004), a net loss of 5 for the Democrats.