Quinnipiac Ohio General Election
- Barack Obama 46% (48%)
- John McCain 44% (42%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- John McCain 52% / 32% (+20%)
- Barack Obama 50% / 34% (+16%)
Survey of 1,229 likely voters was conducted July 23-29. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 9-16 are in parentheses.
July 31st, 2008 at 9:40 am
Unless we blow the VP and the campaign generally, we should win Ohio.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:27 am
On the plus side, this shows movement towards Sen McCain AND it’s within the margin of error.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:29 am
Yes, we should win Ohio by a small margin. Most, not all VPs would keep Ohio Red.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:50 am
I thought McCain was ahead in Oh. Remember that poll that Ramss did a couple of weeks ago. Everyone was excited that McCain was ahead.
I think both picks are going to be key. That is why even though I hope Obama will pick Kaine and it prob will be Bye. That could help him in the midwest
Mccain liberman rummor do I hear self destruct……..Pawlenty or Ridge
July 31st, 2008 at 10:57 am
We were excited about Ras!
July 31st, 2008 at 10:58 am
Richard, could you put something together to look at the pollsters performance in 2004 (i.e. success rate)? I would not mind knowing who is reliable and who to ignore?
#4 James, they took this poll while Obama was in Europe obtaining the media headlines. Are you crying? If I were you, I would be!
July 31st, 2008 at 11:05 am
Waddaya mean Kristofer? James is “optimistic but realistic”.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:11 am
OBAMA IS NOW AT 59.7 ON INTRADE . That’s the lowest in at least six weeks.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:31 am
#7, -teasing-, but he is not optimistic.
btw, looks like Hillary is out of the veepstakes? http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/clinton-for-veep-group-says-shes-out-of-the-running-2008-07-31.html
July 31st, 2008 at 11:38 am
McCain will just need one out of NM, Michigan, and
Colorado and it will be his. NH doesnt help most
likely because Obama wins in a 269 tie.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Kristofer and Adam: Be careful — James Shultz has declared that anyone who disagrees with him is being emotional and biased.
July 31st, 2008 at 12:20 pm
James are you a dem. or repub.?
July 31st, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Let me put it this way. I live in Youngstown, OH. The Democratic Candidate has had at least 62% of the vote here since the ’88 election. This time around, some are suggesting in the local media Obama may get only 55-57%, a loss of 10,000 votes in my county alone, which is major.
HRC Won Mahoning County 68-32 or so, and there are a ton of HRC voters backing McCain. PUMA is very strong here and will be the ultimate reason McCain wins this state.
HRC would win it by 6-8, Obama will lose 51-49, or 50,000 votes.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:50 pm
#6 I do not get you. You act like that I want Obama to win. I just don’t get it. I guess because I am not ra ra ra ra ra enough or because I do not only look at weakness or only look at the good that there is something wrong with that. Nothing can be taken for granted. There are some good things in McCain’s favor I acknowledge that but I look at everything. I did not accuse you of anything
As for #11 no, I did not say that if you disagree with me that you are being emotional or biased.
What I said was that I do not buy into all of that emotional or biased stuff….and if I was not emotional or biased enough that that was not cool…to take it further if I did not agree with or buy into being emotional or biased then I was not cool……… I said that alot people on here who were worried about McCain didn’t take the worry and use it for the advantage when he was further down, the attitude being that we were at the time further down but will try like hell to not stay there…..
I give credit were credit is due whether I disagree with someone or not. That just comes from over the years of dealing with various types of people, I may not agree with a view but I aknolede people have a right them whether they are correct or not. If someone is good at hittning notes in music I may not like their music but I can aknolege good job if they hit the notes, if someone can act well, I will give props to their acting even if I personally do not like their style there are other examples but I will end there.
People can disagree that is fine, but I did not like that because I was not being ra ra ra enough and not always spouting all the good news instead of both good and bad that was not cool. Bad news helps make you better which it seems to help McCain some but good news can get your ego to big………..
I am a moderate, mormon repub……………..
July 31st, 2008 at 1:58 pm
James: Take it easy — you’re getting emotional.
The problem is that you tell us (over and over and over …) that you are “optimistic but realistic”. Cool, if true, and words I would use to describe myself on most subject, including McCain.
The problem some of us have with your posts, however, is that we’ve never seen any of the optimism. Try some balance and people will take you more seriously. I’ll start giving more credence to your comments about bad news for McCain when I see you acknowledge when there’s good news.
July 31st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I should also clarify my statement number 4 I do not think that Obama is dumb enough to pick Kaine. I think Kavon and most others on here agree. He probably will pick someone that will help him in the Midwest.
As for McCain, Romney is still not a good pick. Now that you know and I said that, I am a Mormon. Evg talk alot of bad evil things about two new articles and us have come up saying why a Romney pick will alienate some evg. One article is in Time.
I do not want to get into a debate or discussion about Mormonism if you want there is plenty of stuff on line to educate yourself on that. When I implied this before a couple on here saying that Mormonism is a cult and I should be careful secret Romney lover bashed me a little…..
Anyway, hope that clear things up. Good news on some McCain fronts. Now it’s looking at each state and trying to flip a couple of states blue to counter a couple of them flipping red. I’ve looked at the electoral map alot and the ones that are in play bush won by good margins with NV and NM being the exceptions………
July 31st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
The only thing that I really good emotional about is when people bash my faith. Thats pretty much it, when it comes to politics…. e-mails or blogs unless I use smilies don’t show that. I have said stuff about McCain and optimisim.
I said for one that McCain should have used the worry at the time being behind to excel him forward if he continues to do that he will be okay.
I’ve said that it be good for him to not pick Romeny because, if I emotional about my faith I know evnag are and some will be if Romney is picked…..Good for Mormons if he is not No, good for the campagin amoung evg sure. There are picks that I think everyone can be okay with….
July 31st, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Hmmmm, very surprised that you are LDS!
July 31st, 2008 at 2:39 pm
NVRED:
With respect, I think we can even win without PUMA. PUMA is only strong in our half of the state.
July 31st, 2008 at 4:17 pm
We got Cincy-Suburban Dayton and about 75 of the 88 counties in Ohio pretty secure. The other 13 counties is where the major population lies in Columbus-Toledo-Cleveland-Youngstown. Traditional Democratic areas of Akron-Youngstown will not go to Obama by big margins like they did for Kerry/Gore…. I predict 56-44% or so in those areas, a crucial loss for Obama.
July 31st, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Eventhough I’m a Huckabee supporter if he is not selected I was thinking wouldn’t former congressman John Kacich be a good pick and cinch Ohio for McCain he is from the Columbus area I do believe correct me if I’m wrong he also came up with some good economic plans while in Congress he could be the Evan Bye antidote plus he is good on TV and would be good on the stump. Again said he probably cinches Ohio for us helps us in Indiana,Michigan and Pennsylvania.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:07 pm
#6
Kristofer, I am humbled that you have enough confidence in my polling knowledge and resources to think (a) I am a good person to undertake this (there are many who are much better, such as Sean), and (b) I have a history on this topic sufficient to give you a decent analysis. A mostly unknown is that, via my complete lack of understanding of polling, I was convinced Pres Bush was going to win 2000 with something like 350+ EV (hey, I was new on the prediction scene, and I didn’t understand basic geographical political realities!). I was definitely better in 2004 (I only missed WI), but that was mainly due to the efforts of expert poll analyst Gerry Daly (where I first encountered Sean, actually).
Ok, give me a few days. I MIGHT be able to find something worthwhile, and I will post it on one of these Gallup or Ras posts. Keep in mind, however, that the best pollsters of any given election almost invariably differ from the best of the prior election.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:07 pm
#6
Kristofer, I am humbled that you have enough confidence in my polling knowledge and resources to think (a) I am a good person to undertake this (there are many who are much better, such as Sean), and (b) I have a history on this topic sufficient to give you a decent analysis. A mostly unknown is that, via my complete lack of understanding of polling, I was convinced Pres Bush was going to win 2000 with something like 350+ EV (hey, I was new on the prediction scene, and I didn’t understand basic geographical political realities!). I was definitely better in 2004 (I only missed WI), but that was mainly due to the efforts of expert poll analyst Gerry Daly (where I first encountered Sean, actually).
Ok, give me a few days. I MIGHT be able to find something worthwhile, and I will post it on one of these Gallup or Ras posts. Keep in mind, however, that the best pollsters of any given election almost invariably differ from the best of the prior election.