July 30, 2008

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan General Election

PPP (D) Michigan General Election

  • Barack Obama 46% (48%)
  • John McCain 43% (39%)

Survey of 883 likely voters was conducted July 23-27. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 21-22 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead. The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don’t identify with either party are.

by @ 1:03 pm. Filed under Uncategorized
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150 Responses to “Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan General Election”

  1. BobH Says:

    If I had any faith that PPP was merely biased, rather than incompetent, I would find this very encouraging.

  2. DSkinner Says:

    I think Michigan will be more important than Ohio this year. I think we lose CO, IA and NH from 2004 with an outside chance that Kaine swings VA to Obama (unlikely but possible.)

    In that scenario, McCain would have to capture MI and hold NV and VA to win. If VA went to Obama then we would get the dreaded 269-269 tie and Obama as President.

    I think if the GOP has to worry about Ohio on election night then it means we lose because it will mean Michigan is gone as well. I see McCain winning Ohio by even more than Bush in 2004 with Michigan being more like Ohio and being decided by only a one or two hundred thousand votes.

  3. MVRed.com Says:

    Good poll for McCain.. This is a true battleground.

  4. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “In that scenario, McCain would have to capture MI and hold NV and VA to win. If VA went to Obama then we would get the dreaded 269-269 tie and Obama as President.”

    If the change from 2004 is loss in CO, IA, NH, and VA, with McCain picking up MI, then the GOP still wins.

    Obama would have to hold MI, and pick up CO,IA,NH,VA, AND NM to swing the election.

  5. Jonathan Says:

    #4:

    Good analysis act. Out of that list, I say we lose (regardless of running mates) only IA this year. The West
    will come around to a fellow Westerner like McCain, VA will go with a veteran, and NH will go to the one candidate
    who actually won their primary, not once but twice.

  6. sampo Says:

    If it was a tie, Leiberman would caucus with Republicans and Cheney would be the tying vote? Or does the House vote in a tie?

  7. Jonathan Says:

    #6:

    The House would vote. Each state would get one vote and each delegation would have to agree on the vote.

  8. B Werty Says:

    The House votes and each state delegation gets one vote. So Alaska and Rhode Island counts as much as California and Texas. Someone did the math on this and Obama would definitely win under this scenario

  9. craig Says:

    Jonathan,
    I think there are a lot more problems in the west than you indicate. First, my gut guess is that Richardson is the VP. Lot’s of experience, Hispanic, early supporter, Governor. Too many complementary pluses. So, in that case,…

    New Mexico is probably gone and Colorado and Nevada are at risk. Maybe even Arizona, although I would think we could pull that out, although polls right now are not so good even w/o Richardson.
    If it’s Richardson, you have to pick a VP for McCain who runs really good in West and can pick off another state or two elsewhere ( Michigan, N.H ? ) Any ideas?

  10. Kristofer Says:

    #8, The house votes for Obama this year, as it is based on Congressional del. per state. The Democrats will probably have 27 states with the majority of Congressman being Democratic. The only way McCain wins is if there are some “blue-dog” Democrats that vote McCain, but unlikely.

    This poll is amazing. #1 It is a Democratic polling company. #2 It is within the margin of error (3.3%)

  11. Donald Says:

    Well I don’t think voting would be done strictly along party lines in the House in the event of an electoral tie… there would be tremendous pressure to give the Presidency to the winner of the popular vote.

  12. Jonathan Says:

    #9:

    If Richardson is the Veep, then you are right and NM is gone. In NV, I think turning Obama into Harry Reid
    would help. Reid’s approval rating is in the toilet since he became Majority Leader. CO will be a fight no doubt,
    but my gut says we hold it. A VP to counter Richardson? Maybe Huntsman of UT (Romney’s Mormon strengths w/o
    his other issues). McCain should have Huntsman never leave the 4 corners area and he himself should focus on
    MI and the other Eastern swing states.

  13. Kristofer Says:

    #9 craig, what about this person as VP? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFjqZ_vvLNc

  14. Aron Goldman Says:

    It would be the incoming House that would vote, which is almost certainly going to be more Democratic than the current Congress.

    Each state’s House delegation gets only a single vote in choosing the president. Whoever wins this intra-state vote gets that state’s vote for president. If a state has a tie, then it’s not counted.

  15. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Palin doesn’t have enough experience. period.

  16. DSkinner Says:

    Act,

    You are right I forgot to include NM on my list. I think that state is the farthest gone of any red state in 2004 with the possible exception of NH.

    I really think the GOP needs to focus on the midwest and not CO, NV, and NM. Even though all three of those were red states in 2004, they play to Obama’s strength because of the high Hispanic populations (where McCain is currently ~10 points behind Bush in 2004) and white yuppies. Just like the GOP shouldn’t focus on WA, OR, WI and MN these three Southwest states won’t determine the election.

    I think McCain needs to win MI and OH. If he does that I don’t see a realistic scenario where he loses the election, other than the 269-269 tie.

    Obviously if we can hold any of those states that is great, but I think that we should fight Obama on his weakest ground which is the Midwest.

  17. Illinoisguy Says:

    DSkinner – I tend to disagree, because as it so happens, the person that can help most in the midwest is the same person who can win CO, NV, and NM. Let’s not do one or the other when we can do ‘all of the above’.
    The choice is extremely easy to make, unless McCain gives in to the threats from the evangelicals. Romney won’t hurt us there anyway. They certainly voted a lot more for Mitt than they did for McCain.

  18. Brendan Antoine Says:

    MCCAIN!!!!

  19. Kristofer Says:

    #15, who cares about the experience level of the VP, I want to win this year.

  20. Adam Says:

    IL Guy,

    Even I, a strident anti-Romneyite during primary season, have come around to agreeing that Romney can help in NV. I think there at least is a plausible chance he could help tip CO into our column based on his ability to get his supporters to organize. But to say Romney can win NM is just a bridge too far. Romney will hurt more than he can help in a state with such a high Hispanic population.

  21. Brian Says:

    I’m serious, MI is one of the deciding battlegrounds this election. In an election that’s all about the economy, the state that has the worst economy (esp since we’re a big state) will be the bellweather. Period.

  22. Brian Says:

    Michigan is a state with “such a high Hispanic population”? That’s acinine.

  23. DSkinner Says:

    who said MI has a high hispanic population?

  24. Illinoisguy Says:

    Adam, I don’t know for a fact, but all of us have constantly heard that the McCain people are leaking that we win MIchigan handily with Mitt Romney, and don’t win it at all with anyone else. So, I respectfully disagree with you. Also the SUSA polls showed Mitt helped a ton in Michigan compared to McCain by himself, remember?

  25. Robbie Says:

    So I got excited when you said 269-269 tie, because I remembered my American National Government class where, between hangovers, I learned that the house doesn’t vote by member, but rather by state delegation- meaning that each state has one vote.

    Thinking surely we control the number of states in the house, I did the math before touting my own knowledge of our f’ed up government system.

    We don’t control the number of states in the house, thanks to great places like North Carolina and the Dakotas.

    In other words, don’t get excited when you remember the 12th Amendment. We lose either way.

  26. Tom Says:

    MI is one of many battleground states and additional states such as NJ, Conn, New Hamp. can become very close depending on the VP choice. I think there is a good possibility that Obama will tank downward at some point as he is very inexperienced, very inconsistent and too liberal for the position.

  27. Robbie Says:

    Adam was saying that Romney doesn’t help in NM- meaning New Mexico, which, by the way, does have a high Hispanic population.

  28. DSkinner Says:

    IL Guy,

    I am talking about money for TV, GOTV, etc. I don’t think McCain will have enough to compete with Obama everywhere Obama spends money and he should choose to spend it more in the Midwest where he can get the most bang for his buck.

    Spending it in the SW is like trying to get water to move uphill. Sure you can get it done but it takes a lot more work. McCain and his VP should just alternate back and forth between MI and OH. If we win both of them it’s over.

    Of the three states in the SW, NM is probably gone, CO has to be leaning Obama and with the Dem convention there is probably gone. NV is probably worth going after, especially since it can almost all be reached through one relatively cheap media market.

  29. Kristofer Says:

    #25, we would need to pick up house seats in three states in November (seats currently occupied by Dems). That is going to be tough.

  30. Tom Says:

    Sen. Obama consistently and falsely claims that he was a law professor. The Sun-Times reported that, “Several direct-mail pieces issued for Obama’s primary [Senate] campaign said he was a law professor at the University of Chicago. He is not. He is a senior lecturer (now on leave) at the school. In academia, there is a vast difference between the two titles. Details matter.” In academia, there’s a significant difference: professors have tenure while lecturers do not. [Hotline Blog, 4/9/07; Chicago Sun-Times, 8/8/04]

  31. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “#15, who cares about the experience level of the VP, I want to win this year.”

    Well, being our nominee is a 72 year old cancer survivor, and that the President over next four years is going to have to confront at least half a dozen serious economic and military issues. and that they have to do it not only with a hostile congress, but with an American public generally fed up with politicians in general…

    Yeah, I think there is something to be said for having a little bit of experience under your belt before you take over the second most powerful position in the country – if not the world.

  32. HearMeRoar Says:

    31. act-blog, nobody is disagreeing with you. But none of that comes into play unless McCain wins.

  33. Jeff Says:

    it would be a stupid move for McCain to concede the ‘experience’ card to Obama by picking a VP w/as little experience as Palin or others whos names are bantered around…

  34. corep Says:

    dskin you are wrong about CO going Obama. If anything the choice of VP will be critical here. ALso the DNC is becoming a pain and not a big source of pride people think. They are shutting down I25 for some of the time of the DNC so dont think it is a foregone conclusion we go DEM. Also dont underestimate the oil shale conversation that is giong on here. this state stands to be on the cutting edge of that if we can get the DEMS to stop stalling.

    alot of issues here, but VP choice and oil prices/expansion will be key in the mtn west

  35. Kristofer Says:

    #32, like Fred Barnes said; Romney is probably the best VP for Governing, but not the best VP to help McCain get elected.

  36. Illinoisguy Says:

    If we want to hold the South, we need to put a commercial together with Dale Earnhart, jr, Daryl Waltrip, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Jimmy Johnson, etc, etc, etc. That will have more influence than anything I can think of down there. If they see their heroes are for McCain, that will be good enough. ;) Just kidding! But, I do believe we should use sports figures, and other celebrities a lot more in the stump stops and political spots.

    In Iowa, Dan Jansen (olympic speed skater) spoke at several stops for Romney, and I think people really like it.

  37. corep Says:

    also as proof of the importance of the oil shale issue. Udall(d) for the senate seat was ahead 10% last month and Schafer (r) starting hitting him on his reluctance to drill or explore, that lead is now non existent they are tied. this state is definitely battleground and at this point is probably leaning GOP not DEM, even though by boulder buddies swear it is leaning DEM

  38. Illinoisguy Says:

    Boulder is another San Francisco. I’ve only been there once for a few days, and it was one strange city.

  39. Jonathan Says:

    #36:

    You put Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson on an ad and run it in the South than kiss goodbye to Dixie. No joke.

  40. corep Says:

    ilguy,
    I work in the “peoples republic of boulder” and live in Douglas Co. trust me this place(boulder) is strange.

  41. corep Says:

    we should pay for an ad for Obama featuring Kyle Busch and run that in the south, now that ad would guarantee a win for us

  42. Jonathan Says:

    #41:

    That might actually work!

  43. craig Says:

    I don’t believe Romney is any help in New Mexico, especially with a Richardson ticket. But to send McCain to MIchigan on his own and let Romney stay in the West is a waste of precious leverage. McCain lost the entire state to Romney east of Grand Rapids in the primary.
    Palin looks very attractive, 4 or 8 years from now. But a bad exam or any other problem would put her in the WH as CIC. . I think its been only 20 years since she was on the state basketball championship. If you want to hammer Obama’s lack of experience, you don’t put Palin on the ticket this year.

  44. Illinoisguy Says:

    Yeah, I should have stuck with southerners! Especially Dale, Jr.

  45. Jeff Says:

    36 – Chuck Norris worked great for Huckabee…

  46. Jonathan Says:

    #41
    Here’s what such an ad would be like:

    Images of Kyle Busch’s aggressive driving, cocky attitude, dissing other drivers, and winning all the time, just
    driving everyone nuts. Then fade into Obama making all these arrogant statements, and then have Busch slowly morph into Obama
    with a phrase underneath “Two Peas in a Pod” then a black screen with the phrase “Vote McCain”

  47. corep Says:

    #46 –
    You Win!!! no that would be an ad to watch. Go do a youtube and then post the link

  48. Kristofer Says:

    #43, I do not understand how McCain cannot go after Obama’s experience and judgement with Palin on the ticket? “Average” voters will see “Governor” before her name, and that is more powerful than “Senator”.

    I do not see McCain attacking Obama’s lack of experience, they are attacking his poor judgement and lack OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS! Palin has plenty of experience and correct judgements. She certainly has more political experience than Romney.

  49. Jonathan Says:

    #47:

    I couldn’t do a YouTube video with an instruction manual and Bill Gates combined. :)

  50. Illinoisguy Says:

    Don’t forget to put in the bow!

  51. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    Your points are valid….if you were selling a well known book. You aren’t and you/ we don’t have anywhere near enough time to sell Sarah Palin to the American voters, especially against an Obama VP pick that would be /may be, really well know to the voters. You seem to feel that ” average” voters are some kind of automatons. They are not. They, and the media will want answers to hard questions from a VP. What did you do before you were Governor? How familiar are you with running billion dollar budgets? Why does Senator McCain disagree with you on drilling in ANWR? Tell us more about your recent legislative squabbles in Juneau. On and On and On. Yes, eventually, everybody would tire of this, but if McCain wants an unknown like Palin, he needed to announce LAST WEEK, not September 1, so he has all of August to introduce this person.

  52. aerofanatic Says:

    Michigan, Virginia, and Colorado are THE most important states this cycle. This is why Romney and Kaine are going to be the veeps.

    2004 Kerry States would give Obama 252 EV’s.

    If Michigan goes red, Obama is down to 235. Obama would then need to pick up IA (7), NM (5), CO (9), and VA (13) to get him to 269 which would give him the Presidency in a tiebreaker.

    Hence, Michigan and VA are the keys….along with Colorado….for Obama. Obama can lose OH, FL, AND MI so long as he picks up IA, NM, CO, and VA.

    AS for McCain, this is the rationale as to why Romney will be the pick. Cede VA, NM, and IA…and that leaves CO that you’ve gotta hold. Who out of the potential veeps does well in CO, as well as Michigan in which McCain needs?

    It’s Romney. And it’s a no brainer.

  53. Illinoisguy Says:

    aerofanatic – you know what you’re talking about. I didn’t see you posting until recently, but I am always in sync with what you say, and you say it very well.

  54. RayinNH Says:

    ILGuy – I still don’t see a VP spot as the best place for Romney. I realize that the VP is usually next in line (that goes out the window if they lose) but what is he really going to accomplish. Believe me: your goal, my goal, Jason Bonham’s goal, act’s goal, et al, et al, et al is to see Romney become President either in 2012 or 2016.

    But there is a reason I want that man to be President. It has to do with his ability to reform (thanks for that Kristofer) Washington. I don’t want to see him waste the next 4 years either presiding over an extremely Dem Senate or out traveling the world on the America’s behalf. I want to see him cleaning up Washington. What a better place to start than the GOP. Spend the next 4 (or 8) years cleaning up the GOP and then take that hammer and chisel to the whole Washington establishment. Romney would make an excellent attack dog as head of the RNC and he will do just fine keeping his name in the national spotlight. His PAC will play quite a role, as well, in building support for his next run.

    I know this is a post about the polls in CO, but I felt necessary to respond to all of the Romney talk.

  55. RayinNH Says:

    That should be an “8″ not a smiley face.

  56. jim Says:

    according to this pro dem poll Obama is fading in MI and McCain is close to tying him all by himself.

    The key is the 20% of independents. Does Romney really help there?

    Why should McCain put all his marbles on a Romney who may or may not help in MI but hurt elsewhere when he could have a VP who could help everywhere AND in MI?

    Give this a few weeks and more dirt on Kwame Kilpatrick to come out, and McCain will beat Obama with anyone as his VP.

    Does anyone not think for example that a Colin Powell wouldn’t give McCain a 2-3 pt boost among independents. He was at +57 in the latest Rasmussen popularity poll. And he’d no doubt eat into Obama’s margin among blacks, which would help big time.

    There’s plenty of other potential VPS I can think if who would help McCain way more among those 20% independents who will decide the state than Romney.

  57. Kristofer Says:

    #51, we disagree. I tend to agree with Speaker Gingrich that McCain needs someone new, who will capture the attention of voters. McCain needs to close the enthusiasm gap, and although I respect Romney, Ridge, Rudy and Thompson, none of the fit the bill. McCain needs someone new, from outside of Washington,….a game changer.

  58. David D Says:

    Aerofanatic, what happened with your prediction from last Friday that McCain would announce Romney as VP on July 28th? When will it be done?

  59. matt Says:

    Not quite the huge deficit we all were told would be the case after Hillary’s rancorous exit from the race.

    http://www.political-buzz.com/

  60. craig Says:

    Interesting article in the Denver paper this morning at ( http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10036449)illustrating why McCain needs Romney in the west

  61. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    I live in Atlanta and I occasionally disagree with Newt. He was my Congressman and he lived two doors from me in Indian Hills. Anyway, a month ago he was for Jindal, even though the Democrats would take control of Louisiana if Jindal were on the ticket. Now he wants Palin. The truth of the matter is Gingrich himself is better than all of these unknowns and he should run himself before he suggests others. He just wants a fresh face and I don’t really think he expects we have a chance in the fall with McCain. Who knows.

  62. DSkinner Says:

    I agree 100% with Ray. Let McCain pick Pawlenty and after they give a noble fight and lose we can work towards really reforming the party with Romney as RNC Chairman.

  63. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “Does Romney really help there?”

    I think so: http://race42008.com/2008/05/28/poll-watch-good-news-from-susas-mi-poll/
    He beats Obama/Kaine by 20%.

    “Give this a few weeks and more dirt on Kwame Kilpatrick to come out, and McCain will beat Obama with anyone as his VP.”

    The Rumors about Kwame are as old as he is – rumors about exotic parties, stippers getting killed, affairs, and mis-use of city funds have been around well before his re-election.

    “but hurt elsewhere when he could have a VP who could help everywhere AND in MI?”

    Do you have any evidence Romney would be significantly detrimental anywhere? Or for that matter, the name of a VP would would be completely acceptable to everyone and provide significant benefit?

    “Does anyone not think for example that a Colin Powell wouldn’t give McCain a 2-3 pt boost among independents. He was at +57 in the latest Rasmussen popularity poll. And he’d no doubt eat into Obama’s margin among blacks, which would help big time.”

    In many circles, black republicans are seen as traitors anyway, and what Black who is supporting Obama is going to switch from supporting a Black guy for Prez. to supporting a Black guy for VP?

    Besides, Powell is pro-choice, and would scare off many Conservatives. In addition, he does nothing for the age issue, nothing for the economic issue, was a member of the Bush Administration, and said he didn’t believe we could win in Iraq.

    “There’s plenty of other potential VPS I can think if who would help McCain way more among those 20% independents who will decide the state than Romney.”

    Any VP who could significantly help among Independents would likely do nearly equal damage among Conservatives, if not more.

  64. Kristofer Says:

    #61, Gingrich suggested either Palin or Jindal. Those are his two choices. Here is Newt last week. http://newt.org/PreviewofNewtorgPremiumContent/tabid/297/Default.aspx

    This is not the first time he has brought her up. craig, if you believe that McCain can win with Yawn Romney then I hope you are correct, but I just do not see Mitt on the cover of People magazine. That is what McCain requires.

  65. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    The LAST thing McCain needs is people talking about McCain making an affirmative action ploy to get votes. Lets face it, neither Jindal nor Palin cover significantly for McCain’s flaws – and its unlikely that either could bring a state with them.

  66. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    What McCain requires is the McCain be on the cover of People Magazine. No VP on the cover of People magazine is going to take any votes from Obama. A VP candidate, living in Michigan and Nevada and Colorado and Montana and Ohio for 2-3 months, will. That’s the problem with Palin. You think People magazine is the key to winning. I think credible plans and relevant experience and hard work and well thought out arguments are the key to getting America to vote for you. That’s why I like Romney. I don’t have a clue about Palin and no time to introduce her and debate her strengths and weaknesses.

  67. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “Romney as RNC Chairman.”

    no. No. NO. AND NO!!!

    RNC chairman is a waste of Romney’s governing talents. In addition, it would limit, or eliminate, his ability to run as a strong candidate in 2012 – either to challenge Obama, or unseat McCain’s VP.

    Have Romney be the VP – there isn’t much you do in that position, it would be just as easy for him to work to rebuild the party, AND run after McCain leaves office.

  68. RayinNH Says:

    Thanks ILGuy. In addition to my previous post let me re-iterate that Romney can raise tons of money whether he is the VP or not. A $35,000 a plate dinner in Park City; A $35,000 a plate dinner in Wolfeboro; A $35,000 a plate dinner in Belmont – come on now – $5 mil in a week and he’d still have 4 days off during the week.

    Kristofer – Romney will be on the cover of People magazine in 2012 or 2016 of his own accord.

  69. Kristofer Says:

    #65/66 Teflon Sarah has a better chance to attract voters in the rockies than Romney

    #1, she was born in the rockies mountain states, #2 lifetime member of the NRA, #3 current western Governor, #4 Evangelical Christians and Conservative Catholics support her. #5, She doesn’t hunt for varmint, she hunts for the real thing, #6 Unlike Romney, she is not disliked by half the country.

    -

    btw…someone was asking why was running against Stevens in the primary? Here he is, in front of the Stevens house that got Stevens in trouble in the first place.
    http://video.yahoo.com/watch/3192469%C3%A2%C5%92%C2%A9=en-us/9032415

  70. jim Says:

    I think that huge lead McCain/Romney had over Obama/Kaine had more to do with the weakness of Obama/Kaine than the strength of the GOP ticket.

    That was also a couple months ago. I’d like to see more recent polling.

    Those SUSA polls also had McCain/Romney getting 30% of the black vote which instantly calls into question the credibilty of the entire poll.

    I don’t think Powell would scare off too many conservatives, especially after McCain gets his boost from adding him to the ticket, takes a comfortable lead ovr Obama, and the media and Republicans actually begin to feel like we can win this for the first time this year.

    Powell could help McCain get between 10-15% of the black vote instead of less than 1%.

    If you don’t think that matters, look at Ohio in 2004 where Bush got 16% of the black vote. A small amount to be sure, but it was enough for him to win. If Kerry had gotten 99% of the black vote he would have won.

    Even that 5-10 pts of the black vote that Powell would bring, means that Obama has to do all that much better among the white vote.

    Conservatives and Republicans are on borad in large measure. McCain’s support among them is roughly equal to what Bush had in 2000/2004. There are just a whole lot less of them.

    Lets see some polls with McCain/Powell v Obama/Kaine. I don’t think one conservative would have any qualms after seeing them.

  71. Aron Goldman Says:

    Some good news out of Mississippi…

    Election 2008: Mississippi Senate Special
    Mississippi Senate: Wicker Opens Up Six Point Lead Over Musgrove

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Mississippi found Wicker attracts 48% of the vote, while Musgrove earns support from 42%.

    When “leaners” are included, Wicker’s lead expands to nine percentage points, 52% to 43%.

    These latest numbers represent a significant shift in the race. A month ago, Wicker held a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead. The month before, Musgrove held an equally insignificant one-point lead.

  72. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “she is not disliked by half the country. ”

    …your right, she isn’t disliked by half the country, but she IS disliked by 2/3 of the people who gave a responce.

    Anyway, anyone who wants to talk about the Veepstakes should listen to my radio show tonight – http://www.blogtalkradio.com/act-cast – its going to be a major part of the show.

  73. Kristofer Says:

    Romney on VP: “I don’t plan on being part of the ticket”.
    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/07/romney-i-dont-e.html

  74. Martha Says:

    And we are talking about Powell, why?

  75. jim Says:

    given mitt’s record of flip flops, i’d say that means he’s a shoo-in

  76. Illinoisguy Says:

    #60 the link is awesome. If any of you skimmed over and failed to open it, please do. It is pro Romney for COlorado, and the west generally.

  77. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Kristofer, that is the exact same thing virtually every VP candidate says – until they get announced.

  78. craig Says:

    Kristofer

    How could Palin be disliked by half the country? Only .0001 % have ever heard of her and half of them no nothing about her.

  79. Anne Says:

    It won’t be Romney

    Appearing on Denver Radio station 850 KOA Wednesday, Romney claimed he didn’t expect to join presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain’s ticket. “I think there’s some great people he could choose from,” Romney said, “and I expect he will do that. But I don’t plan on being part of the ticket.”

  80. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Every VP candidate says “they don’t expect to be on the ticket.” What are they supposed to say? “I’m actively seeking the job”? or how about “I have had several in-depth conversations with McCain about becoming the VP”?

    Please, I wouldn’t be surprised if the McCain campaign told all of the candidates to say that so they don’t give it away.

  81. Kristofer Says:

    #80, Pawlenty is saying, “No comment”, Romney is saying “I expect he (pick someone else) will do that”.

    It is not Mr. -12% unfav. Romney.

    You need to begin to prepare yourself for the fact that Romney will not be selected.

  82. craig Says:

    Anne,
    Come on. No one is going to say ” Yeah, I fully expect to be the VP and I don’t understand what’s taking John so long to tell everybody” It’s the same rote answer everyone is required to give.

  83. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “You need to begin to prepare yourself for the fact that Romney will not be selected.”

    …and you need to begin to prepare for the possiblity that Romney will be the pick.

    Maybe Romney will be the pick, maybe he won’t – but if McCain wants to win, it’ll be Romney. If McCain wants to have a good shot at winning MI, it’ll be Romney. If he wants his ticket to have economic credibility, it’ll be Romney. If he wants the best shot at winning NV and CO, it’ll be Romney. If he wants to make a strong play at NH, it’ll be Romney. If he wants someone that doesn’t just make everyone ask “who?”, it’ll be Romney. If he wants someone people will see as ready to become Prez. on day one, it’ll be Romney.

    I could keep going, but I think you get the point.

  84. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “It is not Mr. -12% unfav. Romney.”

    That was -6 – and better than Palin, who you seem to love so much.

  85. Texas Says:

    Romney and Crist are the only ones who appear to be activley pandering for the job, so it would be nice if they did answer your question with an honest answer, #80 “What are they supposed to say? “I’m actively seeking the job”?

  86. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    And it’s certainly not going to be Palin. Pawlenty is saying ” no comment” because he doesn’t want to push his vocabulary. Both Romney and Pawlenty actually have the same answer. The problem is that I want to win this election and you and I have entirely different thoughts about how that is done. I don’t favor Palin or Pawlenty because I , like the rest of America, know nothing about these two, good or bad. Neither have been really ” vetted” like Romney in the primaries. You pick an unknown now and then find out something you didn’t know in October, you are DOA. Do you remember the husband of the last VP to run with Mondale, Mrs. Geraldine Ferraro? She’s bright and sweet and talented and was thoroughly ” vetted” before her selection. Unfortunately, her husband wasn’t thoroughly vetted and she spent the fall campaign explaining his problems. We don’t have time to risk this kind of foolishness against Obama.

  87. Kristofer Says:

    #83/84, My “love” for Governor Palin does not come close to the fatal act-traction you have for Mitt Romney.

    “someone people will see as ready to become Prez. on day one, it’ll be Romney.” – Then why did they vote against him in the primary and why does half the country still dislike him? The only way Romney become President, is if he obtains citizenship from Tuvalu and runs there. He has better odd’s as the population is less than 12k. Good luck.

  88. jim Says:

    To be fair, Romney’s #s are after more than a year and a half in the spotlight and campaigning across the country and tens of millions of ads, and tv appearances and 20+ debates, and talk radio pumping him up during the primary and more…after all the Rombots told us that once people get to know him, they’ll love him and his numbers will shoot up.

    Palin’s numbers in that poll are meaningless. I suspect they could have polled Sarah Polin or Sarah Palen and the results would have been the same. She’s basically a blank slate at this point.

    Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if a good number of those who did say they had negative feelings were Rombots just giving everyone except their guy bad marks.

    The longer it goes on it isn’t Romney. It’s been close to two weeks since Novak’s report and all the speculation really heated up.

    I have a feeling we’ll all be surprised.

  89. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Why didn’t Romney win the primary? Because the Conservative vote was split.

    …and Palin has a worse favorability rating than Romney. She is disliked by nearly a 2-1 ratio.

  90. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “The longer it goes on it isn’t Romney”

    Not true. It just means McCain doesn’t want to announce now.

  91. Big S Says:

    Does Romney really help there?

    Romney helps everywhere!

  92. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    …and of coures the IQ of the thread just dropped by 50%.

  93. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Did anyone stop to consider the possibility that folks in those preferential surveys were, by and large, voting on the aesthetic sound of a name? I’d be just stunned if even 40% of the population had any idea who Palin or Pawlenty are. I’d guess it’s closer to 5-10%. And yet nearly 40% had an opinion. Which leads me to believe that they said to themselves “Palin sounds silly” and “Pawlenty sounds less silly”.

  94. Big S Says:

    #13,

    I laughed out loud when the video juxtaposed a clip of McCain as a POW with one of Palin looking through a scope at an indoor range, following the “COURAGE” caption. What the heck is that supposed to show?

  95. craig Says:

    Hey Guys,
    All of this discussion about VP candidates etc. and who can help the most, and who is dislike by ” half of America”, it would be helpful to reexamine the primaries, through Super Tuesday and revisit who America already voted for;

    Through Super Tuesday ( 20 primaries) over 11,000,000 votes were cast.

    1. None were cast for the following…Crist, Palin, Pawlenty, Thune, Jindal, Portman

    2. Almost 5 million were cast for John McCain ( 43 % )

    3. About 2.5 million were cast for Mike Huckabee ( 22 % )

    4. And, surprise, over 4 million ( 35 % ) were cast for Romney

    Therefore, I don’t believe we conclude that 57 % don’t like McCain or 78 % don’t like Huckabee or 65 % don’t like Romney…..do we?

    What we do conclude is that Romney is a powerfully attractive candidate across the board, getting 1.5 million more votes than Huckabee and 4 million more than Pawlenty, Palin, Jindal, Thune, Portman et al. and that it is just self delusion to argue that
    he would not be a major, perhaps the major addition to McCain’s ticket. After the first 5 primaries in Michigan, Florida, S. Carolina, Iowa and N.H, Romney and McCain were almost tied in votes and both were 400,000 votes ahead of Huckabee. Romney
    had 900,000 votes in California, three times what Huckabee had,

    So, lets get real, folks and give up this silly delusions. Romney can create a win. Everybody else is suspect. Romney already has 4 million votes in the bank in these 20 states. How many do the others have ?

  96. Martha Says:

    85 Texas – Romney has only been doing the events and interview that the McCain camp asked him to do, nothing more. It’s not pandering, it’s helping and he’s done an excellent job.

    If you are so sure that Romney will not be chosen, who do you think will help Mac more in MI, CO and NV? Do you believe the electoral map figures at all in Macs decision? Surely you know it does. That’s why Romney is on the list.

  97. logcabingop Says:

    Act blog are you related to romney? You seem more than attached to him.

  98. sampo Says:

    all the exit polls showed romney appealed to people who liked george bush — the guy who’s approval ratings are in the toilet. so mitt romney is a brilliant choice if mccain wants to be a flip flopper running on a third bush term.

  99. craig Says:

    Sampo,
    Surely you are not suggesting that McCain walk away from these 4 million + voters? Do the math. How the hell do you expect to win?

  100. sampo Says:

    craig, as someone who is apparently of votes cast, i’m sure you’re aware how poorly romney performed once he stopped spending 50 million dollars running…. i think ron paul got more votes after super tuesday than slick willard.

  101. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “i think ron paul got more votes after super tuesday than slick willard.”

    not a hard thing to do…considering that Romney dropped out soon afterwards….

    —-

    Act Cast – Every Wednesday – 11 PM Eastern – http://www.blogtalkradio.com/act-cast

  102. sampo Says:

    101, huckabee got more votes than romney after they both dropped out… oops.

  103. craig Says:

    Sampo,
    Are you saying that 4 million american votes were bought by Romney ? And when he stopped running he obviously performed poorly since he was no longer a candidate and since he stopped spending, the votes were then available to Ron Paul and John
    McCain and Mike Huckabee?
    I find that conclusion abhorrent, and, given the history of our country and the sacrifices people have made to keep this country free, almost disgusting.

  104. sampo Says:

    how’d romney’s early state strategy work out in south corolina again? you know. the state where he outspent every candidate combined not named mitt romney…

  105. Kristofer Says:

    #13, that was Palin on the Kuwait-Iraq border visiting the troops using an M16.

    Yes, see she knows how to use a firearm, unlike “varmint” Mitt.

  106. Mark Says:

    #103. No, what Sampo is trying to say is that he doesn’t like Romney so he will say anything for the sake of arguement. Problem is Sampo sounds a bit childish.

  107. Big S Says:

    #13, that was Palin on the Kuwait-Iraq border visiting the troops using an M16.

    Yes, see she knows how to use a firearm, unlike “varmint” Mitt.

    So that’s supposed to say something about her fitness to be (Vice) President? If that’s all her supporters can dig up, it becomes even more obvious that her resume is too thin for the job.

  108. Kristofer Says:

    Actually #107, she does not lie to try to get a vote like Mitt shotgun Romney does. Palin is the real deal.

  109. Dskinner Says:

    Sampo,

    He dropped out after Super Tuesday so it is no surprise people stopped voting for him. Was that a serious attempt at making a point?

    Romney did not outspend everyone by as much as people are now saying. The Huckbots claim Romney outspent him by 100 to 1 which I guess means Huckabee only raised about 900,000.

    Romney used his money largely to buy name ID in a field where each candidate had a huge advantage over him. Giuliani, McCain and to a lesser extent Thompson are huge celebrities and well known by everyone before the race started. Huckabee had a not so informal pastors network talk him up for free every week at church and Romney had none of that.

    What he spent his millions on was exposure and considering that he went from an also ran in single digits (who many on this blog swore would never reach 10%, then 12%, then 15%, etc.) to the runner-up to McCain I would say he accomplished a lot. If you don’t believe me go look up all the editorials after he dropped out. Almost without exception when reflecting on his candidacy they are impressed by Romney’s climb.

  110. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Talking to Sampo is like talking to a doorknob – except with less well-reasoned arguments.

    As for firing a Gun – thats great – if Washington D.C. ever gets invaded. But, you know, the economy is a LITTLE bit more important.

    Palin does nothing to cover for McCain’s flaws, undermines the inexperience argument against Obama, and has far too thin a resume to be VP this year. Maybe, in four years if McCain doesn’t seek a second term, but not now.

  111. Martha Says:

    Lets not forget the reality that Palin has a new baby boy to care for, one who needs her very much. She is not in a position to accept the spot even if she were asked, at least I would expect her to turn it down.

  112. Kristofer Says:

    #111, welcome back from the dark ages.

    #110, I cannot believe you said that? “As for firing a Gun – thats great – if Washington D.C. ever gets invaded”. Actually Dc has already been invaded by gangs, drugs and crime, and yet the liberals tried to take the rights of citizens away to defend themselves.

    You have been talking at us, about how Romney can win out west, and you dismiss one of the critical issues for westerners. Gun rights? No way act-blog.

  113. deg Says:

    #112 Ofcourse, you can always leave your kid these day at:

    a) The day care
    b) With your sister
    c) Your parents
    d) A private Nanny.

    Sarah Palin could easily accept the job, if needed.

  114. Mark Says:

    #112 So the alternative will be voting for Obama on the basis of gun rights?

  115. bob Says:

    Don’t pull this sexist crap with me. When John Engler and his wife had triplet (already was a father) and served for another 9 years, no one ever questioned him.

    Todd Palin is on leave, and Sarah Palin still makes it to the PTA meetings.

  116. Martha Says:

    Palin has a baby boy with DS. He needs her much more than we do. A nanny isnt going to cut it. Day care? Shoot, you didn’t really mean that did you? Why have a baby if you end up allowing someone else to raise it? But I digress.

    Things are different for brain-injured babies. DS babies often have health issues and it’s common for them to require surgeries and special medical treatments. Even if not, the myriad of therapy demands are great. She needs to be there for him, not pass him off to someone else. No one else can love him, defend him, and champion his right to a normal life like his mom. Dad, too of course.

    She has much more important work to do, although I do love the idea of seeing the issue of abortion brought front and center by a woman who refused to abort her DS baby when 90% of parents do. That would be fantastic!

  117. Kristofer Says:

    #114,

    Many voters do vote based on gun rights, especially out west.

  118. Illinoisguy Says:

    Its like ACT said earlier. If McCain wants to win, he will pick Mitt. If he doesn’t, he will go with someone else. The electoral map makes this a very easy choice. He can win with no one else, and I’m assuming he is smart enough to realize that, especially with the polls latey that shows Mitt by far the superior vote getter.

  119. Adam Says:

    Martha,

    I don’t know if Palin’s the way to go or not but your argument doesn’t hold water. By your logic Palin ought to jump at the chance to be VP, because if McCain chooses her and the ticket prevails her workload is only going to get lighter. Let’s be honest here. Does Cheney give the impression that he pulls a 60-hour workweek? I think not.

  120. Mark Says:

    If many voters base their vote on gun rights why would they even consider voting Obama/VP over McCain/Romney? Especially since most people vote based on the Presidential candidate and not VP.

  121. Illinoisguy Says:

    Let’s face it, there are only four people that have a chance at this thing now:

    Mitt Romney – most qualified by far and getting best polling numbers to help in the right states
    Tim Pawlenty – some consider him the safe choice, but I say he brings nothing and we lose – unvetted
    Tom Ridge – pro-choice – we lose, and not by just a little
    Sarah Palin – Not nearly enough experience, and completely unvetted.

  122. bob Says:

    #119, you are correct, Palin has more day trips than any other Governor, because Alaska is the largest state with the least amount of infrastructure. VP would mean less travel and less authority.

    I like both of them for VP, after Sanford.

  123. Mark Says:

    Bob what do you mean by less authority?

  124. Kristofer Says:

    Off the wires, from ABC News.

    Not Romney.

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/07/mccains-new-str.html

  125. Adam Says:

    Mark,

    I think he means that as governor you are the chief executive of a state. As VP, you are essentially a backup guy (or gal).

  126. Mark Says:

    I would consider Vice President of the United States having more authority than an alaska Governer.

  127. corep Says:

    #112 with all due respect to the gun rights argument, it isnt a major player here in MTN west. Most people realize that although the Feds try to bluster through with restrictions, the states really run that show and there are no states out here trying to limit gun access, at least not to a point that it is even on the radar for people.

    I would refer you to the denver post article on Romney posted above as to how Romney will play in the west. The so called evangelicals wont vote for him argument gets blown apart with the comment that here carried El Paso county huge(CO Springs the Focus on the Family hq)

    Anne, I listened to that interview on KOA, sure he denied wanting the job, he is supposed to. But what I find interesting is that KOA(the main conservative station here) keeps talking to Romney or about Romney. They have polled listeners on who McCains VP should be and Romney keeps winning with more than 50% every time.

    Nationally Romney may have some negatives(albeit I just dont see the south voting for a liberal african american like some here believe will happen with Romney on the ticket); but If we are fighting an EV battle and MI, CO, NM, NV, VA, OH decide it, then Romney is a plus in 3 or 4 of those for sure(enough to carry the state) and he doesnt hurt in the other ones either.

  128. bob Says:

    #123, The “buck” does not stop with the VP. The VP has about as must control and responsibiliy as the POTUS says she/he does.

    Governors are responsible for the bureaucracy, national guard, etc….

  129. Adam Says:

    I would refer you to the denver post article on Romney posted above as to how Romney will play in the west…with the comment that here carried El Paso county huge(CO Springs the Focus on the Family hq)

    I wish we had better data. As for the assertions in the Denver Post – it was a poorly researched article. The author talks about “western primaries” but neglects to mention or worse yet, is unaware that CO, NV and WY held caucuses. If you want to try to glean information on candidates’ strengths in general election contests then be my guest – but make sure you sleep with the light tonight so you don’t have nightmares of Obama winning in Kansas and Nebraska.

  130. Kristofer Says:

    #127, I never said evangelicals will not vote for Romney, I said they want to vote for Palin. I am not anti-LDS.

    You can agree with act and say the Second Amendment does not matter, but you are wrong. It is. That is why Clinton and Obama were trying to run away from the issue.

  131. Illinoisguy Says:

    Yes, the Denver Post article is one you should all ready, because it tells us from their perspective what is happening in Colorado and in the west generally. See post 60 for the link.

  132. Martha Says:

    Adam, I don’t think being the gov of a state with 800,000 people is a more demanding job than VP. They are both demanding. But she is already the gov. Short of resigning, she is stuck. Taking on a whole new campaign and national spotlight would surely cheat her baby.

  133. Adam Says:

    The second amendment does matter – otherwise Gore would have won TN and WV and the presidency in 2000.

    That said, the Democrats have basically given up on fighting over the issue because they know they can’t win. So I’m not sure it will have the political potency this year that it did in the 1990′s and in the 2000 election. As a political matter it probably would have been better for the GOP if the court ruled the other way in the DC gun ban case because then it would force Obama to say he agrees with the ruling – thus alienating the swing vote in rural states.

  134. Adam Says:

    Martha,

    Says you. We’ll agree to disagree.

  135. Illinoisguy Says:

    Kristofer – I again caution you to be fair. ACT wasn’t saying that at all. He was making a little joke about how the fact that Sarah can shoot doesn’t make a whole lot of difference if she’s going to be in the white house with tons of security around her. I guess you were trying to find something to argue about with him He was just being cute.
    Don’t worry, things go over my head sometimes too! :)

  136. Adam Says:

    For the record I suspect Romney *would* be a help in CO – but not because he did well in the GOP caucus.

  137. Kristofer Says:

    #135 ACT – cute? hhhmmm….tough to imagine! :) maybe that is why it went over my head. :)

  138. corep Says:

    Kristofer,(btw I am not anti lds too) i didnt say 2nd ammendment doesnt matter(it does), what I said was out here in CO, where I live, we arent concerned that our gun rights are threatened, and if we were, we certainly wouldnt turn to Obama to be our saviour on that front.
    Adam why make offense for a word.Primary/caucus we still voted and in fact I would argue that you want the winner of a caucus(sure $ is part of the winning equation in caucus but that can be said of a primary as well) more than a primary because the caucus guy has the GOTV that we will need in NOV.

    And as for KS and NE only way they come into play is if Obama picks Sebelius(sp?) and I dont think that happens. But if he does then VA, NH and OH look way better for us so its a “push” like they say in Vegas. Actually we win the hard way as dealer would bust out with that hand(Obama/sebelius)

  139. sampo Says:

    dudes! is this new:
    Obama: I don’t “look like the other presidents on the currency”
    http://hotair.com/archives/2008/07/30/obama-mccains-message-is-that-i-dont-look-like-the-other-presidents-on-the-currency/

  140. Adam Says:

    Corep,

    The point is that caucuses are only attended by the most dedicated members of each respective party. It’s folly to try to gauge candidates’ general election strength based on how well one does in a caucus. I agree with you that Mitt’s win signifies he can organize well – and that would be a help. But above and beyond the fact that Mitt is well-positioned to help with GOTV we don’t know much at all about how receptive the public will be to it or whether or not it will be enough. Had he won a primary in the state by large margins it would suggest broad-based support from all factions of the party. That’s what we need to win. It’s an open question whether Mitt is up to that task.

  141. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    I read your ABC article. If McCain is interested in a “transformative” pick for VP to help him change the party to one that is closer to the Democrats, I’m certainly not riding on his bus. There is already a party, the Democrats, who have made this trip already.
    Why not just vote for Obama? He’s where McCain may want to take the GOP and you don’t have to go through the travail of the ” transformation.”

  142. Kristofer Says:

    Sampo, this is how the McCain team responded; “Like most celebrities, he reacts to fair criticism with a mix of fussiness and hysteria,” said McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds

    Looks the Obama’s new name is “celebrity”.

    #141, “transformative” will not be Liberman, it will be a Palin, Cantor, Jindal or Smith. Do not worry.

  143. craig Says:

    Kristofer,
    Cantor and Smith ? You’re kidding. This is almost August 1. You guys get wackier as the night goes on. Do you think you have the leisure of rolling some name out in front of the public and they will swoon over whoever and McCain? What is their
    position on the major issues? Can they debate ? Have you seen them under pressure ? Are they OK a heartbeat from Commander in Chief ? Can they run the world’s biggest company ? And actually know what they are doing? How do you know?
    Jindal costs McCain votes, initially even in Louisiana when Landrieu takes over the Statehouse for the November elections. The silly ” exorcism ” issue will eat him up.
    Lieberman? A quarter of the Republican party would bolt over his social stances.

    McCain’s transformation would doom the GOP to at least 8 years of the wilderness, transformed into a clone of the Democratic party. The change would be to transform into a left leaning political entity hardly differentiated from the left of center ticket that an
    Obama + a moderate like Bayh, Kaine or Richardson would make. I’m telling you guys, you want to lose Georgia and much of the south ( not one state, many states), you put one of these guys on the ticket as a transformative VP and just see what happens.

  144. RayinNH Says:

    Kristofer – your continued attacks on Romney are making it very difficult for me to re-consider not voting for McCain. If this is what McCainiacs think of Gov Romney then I want nothing to do with them or their candidate.

    Metro is a much better ambassador for the McCain camp because he acknowledges that McCain is nothing more than McShit but that Obama is the devil re-incarnate.

    At the same time – I appreciated your arguments concerning reform in the GOP and DC as a whole.

  145. Kristofer Says:

    #143, yes McCain has plenty of time. This is not like any other election we have seen craig.

    If you believe that Romney, a one term Governor is qualified, then Jindal, or Cantor or Smith are qualified.

    I would rather have McCain select an unknown, then a weak candidate like Romney, who is very unpopular in the country. In describing Romney, ABC news called him a “flip-flopper”. Can you honestly tell us that is what McCain needs?

    If you want a well known name for McCain, I will easily take Rudy before Romney.

  146. Kristofer Says:

    #144, I am speaking on behalf of Palin supporters not McCain supporters.

    I still believe Romney was a good reform Governor, but his campaign damaged him with the public and media. I have never backed away from that. Romney has a lot of work to do to repair his image.

    Why do you guys think Romney is working so hard for the GOP and McCain? His former campaign Manager admitted that he needs to mend fences with those in the party who he angered, specifically those on the Thompson and Rudy campaigns. He needs to be seen as a more inclusive figure.

    My argument is against Romney for the VP position.

  147. Sean M Says:

    You mean Rudy the early front runner 1 delegate Giulilani? I mean seriously this guy had the nomination in the bag but he blew it cause he failed to play in the early states.

  148. Kristofer Says:

    #147 yes, the guy who spent $50 mill for 1 del.

  149. Sean M Says:

    Kristofer-Palin and Jindal have a combined experience of maybe 3 years as governors.

  150. Kristofer Says:

    #149, Combined, they have 2.5 years.

    McCain better show this country that the GOP has changed/will change, that his ticket is willing to fight for reform, or Obama will win and we will lose more people like Ray.

    Romney had great political ad’s early on about how Washington was broken and he could reform the system. This is the attitude the McCain team requires.

    But, McCain better select someone who is new, or someone who is not part of the Grover Nordquist crowd (I like Grover’s pro-groth agenda).

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