Rasmussen Massachusetts General Election
- Barack Obama 53% (51%)
- John McCain 33% (38%)
Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)
- Barack Obama 67% / 31% (+36%)
- John McCain 57% / 38% (+19%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 30. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 29 are in parentheses.
July 1st, 2008 at 11:40 pm
How is McCain down by 20 when his favorables are +19? I can see him trailing in a very liberal state, but he is almost at 60% positive rating and he only gets 33% of the vote?
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:06 am
I mean this is not like other states where one candidate was in the negative and the other had high positives, and the point differential was within 10-15 points. Even in Florida, Obama was within seven. I really don’t get this.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 am
What happened here? He was doing well here a bit back. Must be the Democrat party uniting… -sigh-
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:10 am
the polls are flawed, have been all year. remember when obama was up 10 in NH only to lose. the media has to pump up obama’s support to keep the story of obama as phenom going, instead of obama as mcgovern.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:23 am
Matt,
if the polls are flawed, and if we have to disregard this, then on your gut feeling, how is the situation in Minnesota? SurveyUSa had Obama by a point, but Rasmussen had him up like 14. By the way, I know you are a Palwenty fan, but are you from Minnesota by any chance or have spent a great deal of time there? I was curious. I wasn’t being a smart allic. I was just curious if you may have some insight that the rest of us may not know about that state. I did see your post about the 2000, 2002, and 2006 elections in Minnesota.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:55 am
Okay, so I don’t want to fall into this “single state” mindset, but I’m from Michigan and I can sense a real opportunity for McCain here. And if he wins Michigan, that means he’s won Ohio, and has a shot in Pennsylvania. If he does that, he’s won. Who on God’s green earth expects McCain to win Massachusetts? I trust Rasmussen more than pretty much anyone else (and even then, they’re still polling a huge electorate with a tiny sample), so I feel that the big three Midwestern states are “in play”, as well as Virginia, Florida (though I think it’s got an 80% chance of being McCain), Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Now I could always be wrong and some other states may be in play, but it will be an absolute blowout LANSLIDE if California and Massachusetts are in play for McCain, or if Georgia and Mississippi are in play for Obama. It’s just reality in my eyes. Focus on the states that are likely to decide the election.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
Interesting read, Brian. Michigan is a state that I will be watching closely. As many race42008 readers might remember, the polling was slightly off in Michigan in 2004. Instead of being ~ 7% in favor of Kerry, as many polls indicated, the actual result was actually ~3.5 in favor of Kerry.
Stephen, I am curious about Minnesota too – particularly if Governor Pawlenty is the VP. MN has historically not been friendly territory to the Republicans, but it was reasonably competitive in 2000 and 2004.
In my humble opinion, McCain needs to take up residency in OH, MI, PA, MO, CO, NM, and NV. These are McCain’s “foundational states”. If he can take five of these seven, plus Florida, victory is likely. Thus, the election will hinge on these states, not Mass, Conn, New Jersey or Cali. If McCain won those states, he would win in a landslide anyway. The same can be said for Obama courting voters in North Dakota and Montana. Despite all the talk of changing the map colors, the “old guard” states retain their importance. Thankfully, many of these crucial states are conveniently contiguous (ie PA, OH, MI).
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
#7 – I agree with you Bob. Even if I were not a Romney supporter, I would believe Mitt is the right one to help most in those states. He will anahilate anyone up against him in the debates.
He is a walking encyclopedia on all of the subject matter, and articulates positions with more skill than anyhone I’ve ever watched or heard.