Here’s the latest from Matt’s Electoral Map Update… as usual, all the public polls over the past month have been averaged together to get the results shown on the map.
This map leads to a landslide victory for Obama, 344-194 over McCain.
Some other sites’ projections:
- 270towin.com – Obama 344, McCain 194; 98.2% chance of Obama victory in November
- fivethirtyeight.com – Obama 313.5, McCain 224.5
- electoral-vote.com – Obama 317, McCain 194, Tied 27
- RealClearPolitics – Obama 304, McCain 234
- The Hedgehog Report (davidwissing.com) – Obama 317, McCain 221
- Election Projection – Obama 338, McCain 200
- Intrade – 65.1% chance of Obama victory in November
June 30th, 2008 at 11:12 am
4.5 months is a long time. 4.5 months is a long time. Keep telling yourself that. This map looks like an embarrassment for the GOP.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Matt C.,
Remember:
Michael Dukakis, Summer 1988
John Kerry, Summer 2004
Both had bigger margins (min +10 bigger) over the GOP candidate at this time.
What would Intrade have looked like in June of 1988 had it existed at the time? What did Intrade have to say about the Dem New Hampshire Primary the morning of? What did it say about the MI GOP primary the night before?
538.com is run by a Obama supporter, as is Electoral-Vote.com.
Put the Kool-Aid down my friend, look back at history, and take a deep breath.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:24 am
FL and IN will be red come Nov, as well as VA. OH needs to start trending pink soon too.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The eventual winner in the 1992 election was losing in the polls at this time as well!
Remember Bruce Springsteen filling the streets with tens of thousands of screaming fanatics for John Kerry?
We have traveled this road before…
June 30th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Agreed Joe. Florida, Indiana and Virginia will be completely safe for McCain on election night. I’m not scared about those ones at all. And I can’t even go to 538 anymore, Nate Silver is so completely in the tank for Obama it taints his entire analysis. He should have stuck to Baseball Prospectus.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Kavon,
I didn’t offer any analysis or opinions on the numbers, just the data itself. No Kool-Aid here. Just an honest look at the state of the race right now!
June 30th, 2008 at 11:55 am
One key point that is missing. It is the approval ratings in each of the swing states. Many of the states McCain is behind, he has higher approval ratings than Obama, with a large percentage of undecided voters.
In fact, this is not looking good for Obama, as many of the ststes he has negative ratings in Hilary range.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Wait until all of the supposed Evangelicals and Catholics that are going to vote for Obama find out about his stance on babies who survive abortions: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=18647
June 30th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Updated to add several more sites’ projections from GOP or conservative sites to show it’s not just the libs that have Obama up big at this point in time. My goal wasn’t to say McCain will lose, just trying to offer a realistic picture of the race at this point. As many have pointed out, the election is four months away and things can change dramatically between now and then.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
As much as it pains me to put high expectations on Obama (bad luck and all), he is the sure-fire frontrunner right now. November is his ballgame to lose. Gulp…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
June 30th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I completely disagree with some of those numbers. MO is a red state, with the only excpetion showing Obama and McCain tied the week Obama clinched the nomination. All other polls have McCain in the lead. The RCP average has McCain up in Florida by greater than the margin of error. Where did you get 1% for Obama???
June 30th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I’m not worried about Fl, Va, or In. That takes Obama down to 293. Unfortunately, that’s where the problem comes in…even if McCain takes Ohio (and I think he will), Obama still has 273. With that number, even if McCain wins NH (4 electoral votes), Obama wins in a tie. Depressing.
At the end, the election will come down to McCain being able to win one of: NM, IA, CO, WI, MI and PA. I’m honestly not sure he can win any of those. Let’s just pray he can…
June 30th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
As an aside, McCain also has to hold on to NV, which is the red state that worries me the most (yes, more than VA, GA, LA, MS and NC, all of which will be solid red).
June 30th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Have there been many CT polls lately? That -3 really stands out, with McCain showing surprising strength.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Kristofer,
I’ve got two polls out of MO in the last month. SUSA has it at McCain +7 and Rasmussen has it at Obama +1. Averaged together, you get McCain +3, as shown on the map.
As for Florida, I’ve got 3 polls out of Florida in the past month. Quinnipiac has Obama +4, ARG has Obama +5, and Rasmussen has McCain +8. Averaged together that gives you Obama +1. This is different from the RCP average because they don’t use ARG in their averages, and for some unexplainable reason, they’re still using a PPP poll from way back in March that showed McCain up 11 in their average as well.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Big S,
There’s only been one CT poll in the past two months, actually. Rasmussen has Obama +3 there. In March, we had Rasmussen saying Obama +12 and Quinnipiac showing Obama +17. That’s about it from CT so far, though.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Houston,
I don’t mean to beat a dead horse about Virginia, but I believe in being informed and realistic, so I am just wondering if you were making a broad statement when you say VA, GA, LA, MS, and NC will be solid red? What is solid red? I have no qualms about one saying “solid red” with regards to GA, LA, and MS…and to a lesser extent NC. But Virginia will hardly be “solid red” in the sense that McCain will win by 10%+. +5% possibly, but more than likely any victory there will be in the +5% to +1% margin…I don’t really consider that “solid red”…more like light pink
June 30th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Matt C,
I believe there are questions surrounding the scientific processes for ARG polls. There have been questions in the past.
Don’t you think we should exclude polling that is over a week old? A week in politics is a lifetime.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Big S,
There’s only been one CT poll in the past two months, actually. Rasmussen has Obama +3 there. In March, we had Rasmussen saying Obama +12 and Quinnipiac showing Obama +17. That’s about it from CT so far, though.
It’s not surprising that there have been so few, since CT has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. It a heavily Democratic state now, but is not as liberal as many Republicans from the rest of the country assume. A centrist running-mate selection will probably put it in play in November.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Kristofer,
If we excluded polling over a week old, 80% of that map would be blank. At this stage in the game, polling within the last month is a good enough indicator of where the race sits. As the end of summer/beginning of fall comes, then we can re-evaluate that time frame.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
In response to number 2. You have to remember in 1988 Dukakis was trying to beat a VERY POPULAR president Ronald Regans Vice President Geroge Bush sen…….along with the Mistakes Dukakis made with the picutre in the tank an willy horton……..Kerry Swift Boat City, Fear of another attack with the Bin Laden Tapes and in 2004 after all of that Kerry only lost by 60,000 Ohio Votes and 2% in the pop vote. McCain has work to do let’s face it. If we do not face it and kid ourselves then he will lose. Think positive sure but do the campaign work needed to beat obama……..since 1988 and 2004 the mood of the country has changed for the GOP. Look at 2006………………..
June 30th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
NM, NH, IA, WI, OR, and MN (all listed as battlegrounds by different sources) are a waste of time. NV, OH, CO, VA, MI, PA, FL, and MO are where the money needs to be.
I’m fairly confident we hold FL, MO, and VA. I’m also pretty confident we lose PA. That leaves CO, MI, NV, and OH as the most important battlegrounds. I think OH and NV are, contrary to popular belief, very favorable for McCain. That leaves MI and CO. Win one and we’re in.
We cannot lose Ohio. If we lose Ohio, that’s absolutely the ballgame.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
As for sites with electoral predictions (and with an attempt at neutrality), try presidentelect.org.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
ugadawg,
By solid red, I mean it’ll be a victory regardless of the margin. In my opinion (and that’s all it is, although it is rather informed given how meticulous I am with following polls), there’s no chance VA will be blue this election cycle. Absolutely none. In 2006 (yes, the worst year yet for R’s in recent history), R’s still outnumbered D’s in VA…the only reason other polls are even close here is because D’s are being given a 5% (or greater as is the case of SUSA) advantage in party ID.
An R with extensive military service will not lose VA against an inexperienced D (absent some ridiculous gaffe a la Allen). It just won’t happen. I’m not in denial, and I’m being realistic. Let’s even suppose D’s took over the party ID in VA 42/37 (which is a substantial shift from 2006). Even in that case, if you weight the recent polls of the state accordingly, McCain would win them all.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Btw, ugadawg, for more proof of my realism, I’d say right now Obama has a better chance than McCain of being our next president because I’m not convinced McCain will win any one of: IA, CO, NM, PA, MI, or WI. He needs one, or he’s done…it’s getting very scary.
June 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Just want to clarify the mention of our site 270toWin in the original posting. The projection listed looks like it came from our simulator, which projects the election, if it were held today, based on current polls. That is where the 98% number comes from. However, the election is not today, and the polls will likely vary significantly in the months ahead. The polling map we have is probably a more realistic look at this point (http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/). While Obama is clearly ahead right now, there are more than enough ‘in play’ states out there to make it a competitive race.
July 1st, 2008 at 2:30 am
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