SurveryUSA has Big Mac dominating in Mizzou:
SurveyUSA Missouri General Election Poll
- John McCain 50%
- Barack Obama 43%
Survey of 543 likely voters was conducted June 20-22. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.
With the Veeps:
P.S. The Party ID in this poll is 44/33/21 D/R/I. So that means that SurveyUSA has Big Mac winning MO in this poll by +7 in a Dem +11 hypothetical electorate. Also interesting is that McCaskill does nothing for Obama in her home state.
June 25th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
This is good news – interestingly McCaskill on the ticket doesn’t bump Obama at all. McCain/Jindal vs Obama McCaskill still comes out at McCain +7. Not that either of these are likely to be on the ticket but you’ve got to take what you can get with these random Survey USA VP pairings.
June 25th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Excellent news. Good call B Werty on the demographic breakdown. If McCain can do this well when the turnout is considered “high” for usual democrats in the state, this is good stuff.
June 25th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Finally…good news.
June 25th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
When you combine this Missouri lead with the ever-so-slight gain in the Gallup poll, it makes me wonder if Obama breaking the pledge about the money is hurting him.
June 25th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
This is actually a pretty huge poll for McCain… Rasmussen had Obama +1, I believe.
Taken individually, these polls are meaningless… what Mac has to fight is the perception of Obama’s inevitability; that’s where the polls make a difference. The American people, if they think Obama WILL be the next president, will get used to the idea, not unlike a frog slowly being boiled in water.
June 25th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
MO is pretty safe.
June 25th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
mccaskill doesn’t give obama any edge in the polls bc she is a do nothing senator, i would know i’m from missouri, the greatest state ever
June 25th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
#5 – that’s right. Of course these pollsters are cutting off their nose to spite their face. If they really are inflating Obama’s numbers (and with D party advantages in the mid to high teens in national polls – I don’t see how we can come to any other conclusion) then they’re eventually going to have to get the weighting right as we get closer to November. So what does that mean? They’re going to have no choice but to “manufacture” a strong McCain finish – even if McCain is doing no better on Halloween than he is now. In that case, the people will think that Obama can’t close the sale – again – just like he couldn’t until June in the primary and just like he couldn’t at all in TX, OH, PA, IN, WV, KY, PR, SD, etc.
June 25th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Bloomberg is looking good in these VP polls.
A 7% lead in a poll with the Democrats having +11 advantage in party ID is huge.
June 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
should we expect big jumps in polls once vp’s finally get announced?
June 25th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Greg trust your own judgment for once my man.
June 25th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
This poll shows McCain winning Kansas City – an area that traditionally goes Democratic and which Kerry won by (I think) 20 pts. That doesn’t seem right.
June 25th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Actually, I’m not sure about Jackson County proper in the ’04 elections….need to check that.
June 25th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
“I know Missouri. I’ve been in the political trenches there. If McCain picks a pro-abortion VP he loses that state…I know several independent-conservative GOTV groups in Missouri would shut down if McCain betrayed them. I know the state…If I recall correctly Lieberman the pro-abortion VP was the weakest one…I don’t think McCain/Lieberman or McCain/Giuliani could win in Missouri. I would do all I could to make sure they lost.”
From the June 3rd SurveyUSA poll for Missouri:
McCain/pro-choice Lieberman 44%
Obama/pro-life Hagel (neighboring NE) 38%
McCain/Lieberman 44%
Obama/Sebelius (neighboring KS) 39%
McCain/Lieberman 45%
Obama/Rendell 37%
A McCain/pro-choice Lieberman ticket outperformed a McCain/pro-life Pawlenty pairing in Missouri by 4 percentage points in every matchup. And, against Sebelius and Edwards, Lieberman only polled 2 points behind Romney.
From the June 25th SurveyUSA poll for Missouri:
McCain/pro-choice Bloomberg 47%
Obama/Kaine 34%
McCain/Bloomberg 47%
Obama/Strickland 36%
McCain/Bloomberg 49%
Obama/Missouri Senator McCaskill 41%
McCain/Bloomberg 47%
Obama/Webb 40%
McCain/pro-choice Fiorina 46%
Obama/Kaine 35%
McCain/Fiorina 46%
Obama/Strickland 36%
McCain/Fiorina 45%
Obama/Webb 38%
McCain/Fiorina 46%
Obama/McCaskill 42%
This time, a ticket with McCain and the pro-choice Bloomberg outperformed a ticket pairing McCain and the militantly pro-life Jindal by 3 points against Kaine, and by 1 point against Strickland and McCaskill.
McCain even polled a point better with the pro-choice Carly Fiorina against VA Gov Kaine than McCain did with the ‘no abortion/no exceptions for rape or incest’ Jindal.
Oh, to experience schadenfreude at the expense of a German who, in 2008, still refers to Jews as the Untermenschen, and doesn’t see, as long as one supports the legality of abortion, how pushing us into furnaces once again is far off.
June 25th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Look for McCain’s tiered VP list selection model to play a considerable role in the selection process.
June 25th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
#14, Carly Fiorina is pro-life.
June 25th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
IR-MN,
What makes you think Fiorina is pro-life?
From the June 23rd issue of Newsweek:
But at H-P, Fiorina also earned a reputation for sometimes using her superior sales skills to mask underlying problems with the product. Trying to ease the Columbus women’s fears about McCain’s pro-life views, Fiorina claimed the senator “has never signed on to efforts to overturn Roe v. Wade.”
On the May 11 edition of This Week, George Stephanopoulos asked Fiorina about the GOP platform. Stephanopoulos noted that the Obama campaign, in mapping an election strategy for independent voters, has “point[ed] to the GOP platform on abortion which is a constitutional amendment with no exceptions. No exceptions for rape, incest, life of the mother.” He then asked Fiorina: “Senator McCain used to be for changing the platform. Now he’s signaling — to include those exemptions. Now, he’s signaling it should stand as it is, aren’t you worried that’s going to turn off independents and moderate Republicans, especially women voters?” Fiorina replied: “John has been consistently pro-life. He also, as you perhaps know, has said that he supports stem cell research. I think in terms of the Republican platform there is a process in place where delegates work their will. And delegates come together the week before the convention and go through a series of proposals and take their votes. And that’s the process that’s going to be put in place. I can tell you right now that John McCain is not yet focused on the convention. Not yet focused on the platform.”
And lastly, I found this in a September 2004 San Jose Mercury News article:
Republican insiders said Fiorina, whom they described as a moderate and pro-choice, is a rare breed, and she could have a bright future in politics.“
June 25th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I actually think that what could be equally damaging for Sen. McCain in places like Missouri is if he were to chose a pro-stem cell research VP.
June 25th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
#17, Aron, I’m not going to challenge your superior oppo research skills. But you did prove that Carly is duplicitous by those contradictory quotes, which doesn’t help her considering her HP history. Maybe she just changed her position in the last two years to run for VP. I was just referencing a blog entry in one of the conservative mag blogs that said Grover Norquist liked her–and that she was also pro-life. I would google, but I’m not motivated.
June 25th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
The Problem with Fiorina is she was push out of HP.
June 25th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
I can assert flatly that Obama has very little support in Southwest Missouri. A lot of McCain’s support here is reluctant, but it is support nonetheless.
June 25th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Aron, when they are taken three weeks apart, that’s hardly indicative of anything. I say Obama slipped in the state in those three weeks. Please don’t compare apples and oranges.
June 27th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
[...] was the case in the Show Me State, pro-choice New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg once again demonstrates that he outperforms the [...]