Things are a little close for comfort down in the Magnolia State, where Bush won by 20 points four years ago, but the favorability ratings are certainly a good sign:
Rasmussen Reports Mississippi General Election Matchup
- McCain – 50%
- Obama – 44%
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
- McCain – 55/42
- Obama – 44/54
Scott makes the observation that the racial divide is huge in the breakdown of the crosstabs.
The Senate races:
- Musgrove (D) – 47%
- Wicker (R-inc) – 46%
Wicker was appointed by Governor Barbour to fill out the rest of Trent Lott’s term when Lott retired. Intrade currently rates this race as an exactly 50/50 tossup.
- Cochran (R-inc) – 58%
- Fleming (D) – 35%
May 29th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Erm….Obama within 6 in MS? Not good, not good.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
I’m really starting to think Obama could win the pop vote by a point or so and still lose the EC. A couple of blow outs from him in NY, IL and a decent margin in CA along with single digit losses in the south and some key battle ground states can def do the trick IMO.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
If AA’s make up 36% of the sample and they go for Obama 90-10, then McCain is winning whites by a margin of about 80-20 (ignoring undecideds). Yikes.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Research 2000 released a poll a few days ago that showed McCain leading by 15.
May 29th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
also the R2000 poll showed Wicker leading by 4 – just for some comparison.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
This may just be a bad sample. The Dems are fools if they think they can take MS for Obama. The Senate seat is a different story, but MS will be solidly for McCain in Novemember.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I do think you will see Mississippi much closer than Alabama this time because the racial divide is so great. I think McCain will prevail. It might not be that big a deal if Musgrove wins because he’s pretty conservative anyway.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
SurveyUSA has their new Veep polls (Kansas). And it shows (contrary to their claims) that adding Sebellius doesn’t do much for Obama. Obama/Sebellius pretty much runs even with Obama/Edwards and is comparable to McCain v. Obama when either Romney or Huck are added to the Repub ticket. Somewhat surprising, I must confess. Someone else should post it, because I’m at work and can’t access my account from here.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
So much for the liberal claim that Obama is a transformational figure who will put all these states in play.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
“If AA’s make up 36% of the sample and they go for Obama 90-10, then McCain is winning whites by a margin of about 80-20 (ignoring undecideds). Yikes.”
Actually, that’s no so great. Republicans should win Mississippi by about 85-90% if they are going to win by their normal margins. If the Democrat can win 30% of whites, they probably win the state. I cannot imagine Obama polling better among whites in Mississippi than Gore or Kerry did. Perhaps Rasmussen is overweighting blacks, counting on an Obama Factor?
May 29th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Correction, my last post should read “Republicans should win Mississippi *whites* by about 85-90% if they are going to win by their normal margins.
May 29th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
This is one of the few Southern states where Obama is running stronger than Kerry, and it might even be the only one. It’s all about the racial factor. Obama’s problem is his ceiling among whites is so low here.
May 29th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
I realize that there is a ceiling, but I still cannot believe this poll. Wonders never cease.
May 29th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I don’t believe its that close, but Mississippi is one state where McCain’s running mate could make a difference. If McCain picks someone not conservative enough then Obama could win. Not because republicans would vote dem, but because they would not vote.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
44 percent is about Obama’s ceiling in the state. There just aren’t enough blacks and eggheads to allow it to get much closer. He won’t do any better than Kerry among whites so he can’t win in Mississippi.
May 29th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
The only way we could possibly lose MS is if McCain purposely seeks to alienate the states voters – like, say, putting a Mormon on the ticket.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
#16 Like the Mittster…
McCain/Romney on the R side, Barr on the libertarian side and super-enthused Black people voting for Obama may be enough to turn it blue this cycle.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Oh and that same combo would probably put VA, NC and GA in play too.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
2 is correct Obama will by 53 v 47 or 52 v 48.
Unlikely but possible J/Mac still sneeks in on 52 v 48.
Causing chaos for the next 4 years!
May 29th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
That was the 2004 split. Bush got 80% of whites. Also alot like Nebarska in that Obama matches his Favorable rating.
May 29th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
I think McCain/Romney would still win MS and the rest of the south for that matter. Most Christians are stupid enough to let their religious beliefs get in the way and allow an Obama Presidency.
May 31st, 2008 at 2:38 pm
This poll makes it more likely that Obama will select his foreign policy advisor and go-to surrogate on small-town issues Governor Ray Mabus as his Vice President.