April 29, 2008

In SurveyUSA We Trust

SurveyUSA’s accuracy has been a trend throughout the primary season, so why not put our faith in it as the Dems head to North Carolina? Jim Geraghty over at The Campaign Spot has the scoop:

In Pennsylvania, Survey USA’s last poll had Hillary 50, Obama 44. The final numbers in the Keystone State were 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

In Ohio, Survey USA’s last poll had it Hillary 54, Obama 44. That almost nailed it, as the final numbers there were 54.2 percent to 44.1 percent.

In Texas, Survey USA’s last poll had Obama ahead, 49 to 48. Hillary won that state, but it was indeed close, 50.9 percent to 47.4 percent. They had Hillary two points too low, and Obama about 1.5 percent too high.

So while Survey USA is the only one putting North Carolina in single digits, their track record lately suggests we shouldn’t expect them to be too far off the final results.

Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen have Obama ahead 12 points and 14 points respectively. The true figure may stand between SurveyUSA’s 5 point spread and those numbers, but Clinton certainly seems to be looming larger in Obama’s rear-view window.

by @ 4:42 pm. Filed under Uncategorized
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One Response to “In SurveyUSA We Trust”

  1. Diane Says:

    5 points is a little close. I’ll predict Obama takes it by 8 points. But that his lead is shrinking is hard to deny.

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