Alabama: Jeff Sessions has not been the most impressive Senator, but he hasn’t really offended people either. This is Alabama in a Presidential year with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Easy win.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Alaska: Ted Stevens is the king of pork in the Senate, even more so than Robert Byrd. He has had his ethical problems, but I do not believe Alaska will elect a Democratic Senator in a Presidential year.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
Arizona: There is no race this year, but it will be interesting to see who Governor Napolitano appoints to fill his Senate seat next January.
Arkansas: Republicans failed to find an opponent against Mark Pryor. Though Arkansas has been trending Republican, Pryor almost certainly would have won anyway. He is one of the most moderate Democrats in the Senate.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Colorado: If I had to pick which state would have the closest Senate race this year, I would pick Colorado. Schaffer proved himself to be brighter than Pete Coors in a 2004 primary debate when Coors did not know who the Prime Minister of Canada was. Perhaps Schaffer would have been the stronger nominee against Salazar. Polls have shown Schaffer and Udall consistently tied. I have a gut feeling Schaffer pulls this off, just as Allard twice did against Strickland, but there is little concrete evidence to show either candidate having the upper hand.
Rating: TOSS-UP
Delaware: I am not even sure whether a Republican has emerged to run against Joe Biden, but it doesn’t much matter anyway.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Georgia: Like Sessions in neighboring Alabama, Chambliss leads all potential opponents by a wide margin. Obama at the top of the ticket will not help his opponents here.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Idaho: Lieutenant Govenor Risch is running for the seat currently held by a man whose name I would rather not mention. Unless Obama replicates his huge caucus win in November in Idaho, don’t count on this seat to change hands.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Illinois: Obama’s Senate colleague is not in any serious danger. Both Illinois Senators will be the same in 2009 as they are today.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Iowa: Tom Harkin has had some close races in the past, but it doesn’t look like a close one is in the cards this year in Iowa, a very anti-war state.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Kansas: Pat Roberts should have an easy win, so Democrats can continue to ask what the matter is with Kansas.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Kentucky: McConnell is up by about 15 points in the latest poll. That is good but not great. I doubt Kentucky will be very inclined to vote for Democrats this fall though. It is also rare that party leaders lose with Tom Daschle being a notable exception.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Louisiana: Republicans would love a win here to mitigate whatever losses we have elsewhere. While the African American population has waned in Louisiana post-Katrina, Landrieu is still up by double digits in the polls. She has pulled out two very close ones thus far in her career, and I think she’ll survive this one too. I hope I’m wrong.
Rating: TOSS-UP
Maine: Susan Collins has a fairly comfortable lead despite the fact New England has been disinclined toward Republicans in the last ten years. She most likely survives, but if Democrats have a good night on the Senate side in November she could have a problem.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN RETENTION
Massachusetts: Former Democrat nominee John Kerry leads potential opponent Ogonowski 53-31. Kerry’s favorability rating in the Bay State is also in the low 50s. If Deval Patrick continues to slide and Barack Obama does not sell here, there is a longshot possibility of an upset. If Kerry does lose, Republicans will almost certainly take back the U.S. Senate.
Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT RETENTION
Michigan: Longtime opponent New Hampshire’s leadoff primary status Carl Levin is up this year. I’d love to see him go down, but you don’t always get what you want.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Minnesota: Despite Norm Coleman’s mediocre popularity, he will most likely survive over the obnoxious Al Franken. In the latest poll he leads by 7.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN RETENTION
Mississippi: Senator Roger Wicker, who was appointed to replace Lott, must run in his own right this November. He is heavily favored, but it is not a guarantee.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
Montana: Max Baucus breaks ranks with his party enough that he will likely survive in this Republican-leaning state. He currently leads by a wide margin.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Nebraska: Republicans dodged a bullet when Bob Kerrey did not try to return to the Senate. Governor Johanns leads by a wide margin and will win.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
New Hampshire: John Sununu has not really made any mistakes to speak of during his time in the Senate, but he is struggling against popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, trailing by about ten points. When he beat Shaheen last time, it was in a year far more favorable to Republicans. Sununu will have to deal with popular Democrat Governor John Lynch running above Shaheen on the ballot. It is more plausible to see moderate New Hampshirites voting McCain/Shaheen than Obama/Sununu, so unless McCain wins the state by at least 5 points and possibly 10, Sununu is done.
Rating: LEANS DEMOCRAT PICK-UP
New Jersey: Senator Lautenberg retired in 2000 but came back in 2002 to replace Torricelli. He now thinks retiring was a mistake. Though the Presidential race in this state may be closer than expected, Lautenberg does not appear to be in danger.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
New Mexico: The Udall running here is polling better than the one running in Colorado, and he will probably win. It’s a shame Pete Domenici had to retire.
Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT PICK-UP
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole has a double digit lead and is unlikely to lose barring a Democratic tsunami.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma: John Kerry failed to carry a single county in Oklahoma in 2004, and it is hard to picture Barack Obama doing any better here. Senator Inhofe should cruise to re-election.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Oregon: Gordon Smith seems to keep on winning despite this being a moderately Democratic state. An upset is possible, but Smith is the favorite and should outperform McCain here.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN RETENTION
Rhode Island: I am not even aware of an opponent against Jack Reed. He should be fine.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
South Carolina: McCain crony Lindsay Graham should cruise to re-election.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
South Dakota: Typical of the Dakotas, polls show McCain way ahead here and the Democratic Senator also ahead. Johnson is in little danger of losing.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Tennessee: Gosh, lots of past Presidential candidates are up this cycle. Joe Biden, Tom Harkin, John Kerry, Elizabeth Dole, and now Lamar Alexander. I’ve always though Lamar would have been a pretty good President. He is way ahead this year and will win.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Texas: Senator Cornyn does not appear to be in trouble.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Virginia: I don’t think Jim Gilmore is totally out of the question here, but Mark Warner is unfortunately the heavy favorite.
Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT PICK-UP.
West Virginia: There will be lots and lots of McCain/Rockefeller ticket-splitters in this state.
Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Wyoming: Barrasso is up in a special election, and Enzi is up for a regular election. Both should win. This is Wyoming after all.
Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Bottom line: If I give Louisiana to Landrieu and Colorado to Schaffer, that leaves Democrats with a pick-up of 3:
52 Democrats
46 Republicans
2 Independents
Things could be a lot worse.
April 28th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Clarence-
I agree with most of your rankings, except to say that I think we have a better chance than you postulate in Louisiana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. I agree that we’ll likely lose Virginia and New Hampshire.
April 28th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Sessions has been one the few GREAT conservative senators. Where have you been? On judges and on amnesty he was out front.
April 28th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
If we can hold the Dems under 55 this session, we’ll be in great shape for a monstrous comeback in 2012.
April 28th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Sean could you e-mail me your data set of CDs from the previous post?
My e-mail is starvingecongradstud@hotmail.com
I’ve got a couple things I’d like to do with it, if you don’t mind.
April 28th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Has Johnson confirmed he is running again?
anyway…it’d be nice to see Levin thrown out, but I’m not sure if we can get voters here to direct their wrath on a Senator. Certianly Granholm is unpopular, but…I dunno.
April 28th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Both of Mississippi’s senators are up for election.. Wicker will win the special election and Thad Cochran will trounce his democratic opponent.
April 28th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
I believe Johnson has confirmed he is running again, hence the lack of decent opposition.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
I’m 39. What is the chance of me seeing a Republican Senator elected from New York in my life?
P.S. And I hope to live a long time.
April 28th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Good analysis Clarence, although I’d adjust slightly a couple of races. I think Minnesoata is a toss up, with Franken raking in the cash, and being wacky enough to be credible (this is Minnesoata after all).
Alaska is interesting, as the corruption taint is something voters don’t like. Witness Palin’s victory in 2006. The state is red, but it doesn’t tolerate corrupt red. So Begich is in a with a shot.
My summary (FWIW)
Democrat pick-ups
Virginia
New Mexico
New Hampshire
close contests – leaning incumbent
Maine (R)
Alaska (R)
Oregan (R)
toss-ups
Loiusiana (currently Dem)
Colorado (R)
Minnesota (R)
April 28th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Pete (#8), look at how the south has moved in the last 50 years, and be encouraged…
April 28th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Alaska worries me.
Not that I expect AK to elect a Democratic Senator (considering Palin’s high approval ratings and the fact that it is a general election year), but the fact that a long-serving GOP incumbent is in such a tight race in such a Red state really does have he concerned.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Stevens deserves to be in trouble. I’d have a tough time voting for him.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Is there a chance that Stevens loses the Primary, Murkowski style?
April 29th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Huckabee should have tried to win himself a Senate seat.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:11 am
There won’t be a primary race in Alaska, but Stevens is in trouble. Palin won the governor’s race here because she was seen as above politics. She was a Republican who actually attacked corrupt Republicans before it was fashionable in Alaska. Stevens is seen, fair or not, as part of that corrupt group, which may be his downfall this time around after decades in Alaskan politics (he was instrumental in the statehood movement in 1959 and has never left the political scene since).
On the Dem side, Mayor Mark Begich is riding a wave of popularity in Anchorage but is little known outside the city. Fortunately for him, half the state’s population lives in Anchorage. However, the rest of the state is a virtual guaranteed vote for Stevens, and Stevens, for all his faults, is still immensely popular among long-time Alaskans. What the Lower 48 calls pork, Alaskans see as funding for things the rest of the country has had for decades but we still desperately need, like roads, bridges, police communications, schools for Native Alaskans, etc. Stevens has done more for modernizing Alaska than anyone else in the young state’s history . People don’t forget that kind of thing when they enter the voting booths.
The Stevens-Begich race should prove to be an interesting one – which really could go either way. Our lone Congressman, Don Young, is not a well-liked man by members of both parties, and has several primary opponents, including Lt. Gov Sean Parnell, and if I was a betting man, which I am, I’d put everything on Parnell winning that seat. I’d put a few bucks on Stevens as well, but I’d hold my breath until the final votes are counted.
April 29th, 2008 at 3:20 am
#8. . . It may be a while in the future for another GOP Senator from NY, but you did see one in your past. Al D’Amato served from ’81 – ’99. In fact, he replaced Republican Jacob Javits, who had served in the Senate since the 50s.
April 29th, 2008 at 7:26 am
These are pretty spot-on. I really think the NSCC needs to dump as much money as they can into LA. New Gov. Bobby Jindal was swept in by huge margins last year and the amount of Democrats in the state has seriously declined. Winning LA would essentially negate two potential loses elsewhere.
On VA:
If Gilmore gets the nod, this seat is lost, guaranteed. Having lived in VA for the last 5 years, I can tell you, there’s not much love for him out there. Warner beats him by 15+ points.
On CO:
For those of us who supported Schaffer in 2002 over Pete Coors, the fact that he is running a close race, is of no surprise. If CO wasn’t trending blue and the nation didn’t despise Republicans, he may be up big at this point. Nevertheless, this is an uphill climb.
On NM:
This seat might be more in play than pundits show right now. I think the Wilson/Pearce battle for the GOP nomination might eventually give the seat to Udall, but there is, at least, a chance here.
April 29th, 2008 at 10:09 am
I didn’t realize Gilmore was unpopular in Virginia. I knew he had served as Governor. Did he not do a good job or something?