I like John McIntyre’s approach at RCP for the possible results tomorrow. Here’s McIntyre’s take:
-Obama wins: Race is totally over.
–Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.
–Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.
–Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.
–Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate “winner”. In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.
So let’s play our little prognostication game a different way. Give your spreads for Totally over, effectively over, status quo, improved odds, or totally different race. Also, give what you think the odds are for each. Here’s my take:
Totally over: Clinton two or less. 5%
Effectively over: Clinton 3-7. 15%
Status Quo: Clinton 8-12. 50%
Improved Odds: Clinton 12-17. 19%
Totally different race: Clinton 18%. 1%
April 21st, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Totally over: Clinton Less than 3%. 5%
Effectively over: Clinton 3-8. 20%
Status Quo: Clinton 9-11. 30%
Improved odds: Clinton 12-14. 30%
Totally different race: Clinton 15+. 15%
April 21st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Totally over: Clinton loses.
Effectively over: 1-6%
Status Quo: 7-9%
Improved Odds: 10-14%
Totally Different Race: 15%+
April 21st, 2008 at 5:03 pm
I think McIntyre is being a bit overly generous to Hillary, frankly.
I think she needs to win by at least 15 points to avoid being effectively over close to 20 points to improve her odds. (I don’t differentiate between effectively over and status quo; at this point in the game for Hillary, they are one and the same). To make a totally different race, she needs more than a 20 point win.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Nah. Right now she’s not quite in Mike Huckabee post-Virginia mode. Which is what McIntyre is talking about. She might stick around for Indiana and West VA, but no one’s going to pay attention, even if she wins.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Sean P,
Quite the contrary. McIntyre’s scale seems to be skewed against Clinton. By my calculations, a 10-13 point victory for Hillary in Pennsylvania would put her on the path toward claiming a popular vote win.
Using John’s scale:
Obama wins: Race is totally over. 3%
–Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over. 12%
–Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down. 25%
–Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media. 50%
–Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate “winnerâ€. In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee. 10%
As I see it…
Totally over: Obama wins.
Effectively over: Clinton 1-4.
Status Quo: Clinton 5-7.
Improved Odds: Clinton 8-12.
Totally different race: Clinton 13+.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:40 pm
It all depends on turnout. RIght now, Obama is ahead in the popular vote by anywhere from 700-850,000 depending on how caucuses, that WA primary, and a few others are counted. That’s without MI and FL by the way.
If PA has say a 2.5M turnout, which would be pretty big, a 10-12 pt win nets her around 250,000 votes. Seemingly big, but when you take into account that the latest poll out of NC has Obama up by 25, I don’t think it’ll really matter. Whatever she gains out of PA will be countered by what he gains in NC.
But she can make it up with big wins in WV and KY. I think her best hope comes down to June 1 in Puerto Rico. No one knows what turnout will be but I’ve seen that it could be as high as 2M. If that’s the case, a big win could net her close to 400,000.
I don’t know if she can pass him w/o MI and FL, but she’s already said she’s taking those two states to the floor and will not leave until they are counted. So her goal has to be to narrow it enough to get the popular vote lead with MI and FL counted. That’s certainly doable.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:42 pm
I just read McIntyre’s column and see that he agrees with me, but didn’t reflect it in his scale:
A double-digit win keeps Clinton in position to be able to ultimately claim a victory in the popular vote. And a win in the popular vote is critical to the Clinton campaign’s ultimate strategy for the nomination, as it gives superdelegates the rationale (and more importantly the cover) to buck all the emotional investment in Obama as the nominee.
http://race42008.com/2008/04/21/re-ruh-roh/#comment-293570
April 21st, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Totally Over: Clinton less than 2 (10%)
Effectively Over: Clinton 2-5 (30%)
Status Quo: Clinton 6-9 (30%)
Improved Odds: Clinton 10-15 (20%)
Totally Different Race: Clinton 16+ (10%)
I don’t see the liberals in the Democratic Party nominating Clinton even if she wins the popular vote. Obama just has too much support in the media and the nutroots.
April 21st, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Wow, this is fun. Rounding to closest percentage point:
Totally Over — Clinton by 1 or less — 4%
Effectively Over — Clinton by 2-6 — 12%
Status Quo — Clinton by 6-15 — 42%
Improved Odds — Clinton by 16-19 — 39%
Totally Different — Clinton by 20 or more — 3%
And Finally:
McCain Gets >269 EV In November — Obama by 100% to Clinton by 100% — 65%
April 21st, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I hope there is a freak monsoon in Pennsylvania tomorrow… confined entirely to within the Philly city limits and around all of the Starbucks just outside of town.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Hey, Adam, I’d really appreciate if a monsoon didn’t reck my home. It’s just not something I’d look forward to.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:26 pm
You live in a Starbucks David?
Or Philly?
Sorry either way.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Heh. Philly, actually. And I’m JUST LOVING all these ads here. They’re just wonderful to watch every second of every day.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Totally over: Clinton 3 or less. 9%
Effectively over: Clinton 4-6. 22%
Status Quo: Clinton 7-10. 30%
Improved Odds: Clinton 11-13. 13%
Totally different race: Clinton 14% + 26%
April 21st, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Oh David – Philly’s a tough town. They can handle a little rain, right?
April 21st, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Aaron: Here’s why I disagree.
I get Hillary’s overall strategy, win the popular vote (by at least one accounting method) and use that otherwise meaningless win to leverage support of the superdlelegates. Thing is, Obama’s people get it to. How could they not, given its her only shot left?
Obama has $40+ million left for the next 7 states. And even though he can’t win in Ken & WVa, he’s going to spend everything he’s got to overwhelm Hillary on the airwaives and the ground. Not to win — but to narrow her lead enough to deprive her of her one chance at legitimacy.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Hmm, the rest of my comment was deleted for some reason. To summarize, Hillary’s campaign is, by all accounts, broke and she needs a large infusion of cash to campaign in Indiana (and byond) like she did in PA, and I don’t see a 10 point win convincing her supporters to pony up $$ at a greater rate than they have been. A 10 point win will be spun as a win, and will get her some good press, but at the end of the day she won’t raise enough money to compete in Indiana, and will get overwhelmed by Obama there and likely lose, which will end her campaign.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Totally Over — Obama wins — 3%
Effectively Over — Clinton by 17 — 5%
Odds that BobH is just making it all up as he goes along — Very High.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Hmmm … computers are odd things. Why did the middle lines of my post disappear?
They were:
Effectively over — Clinton <5 — 17%
Status Quo — Clinton 5-9 — 50%
Improved Odds — Clinton 10-17 — 25%
April 21st, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Completely Over- Clinton less then +6-10%
Effectively over- Clinton +7-9-35%
Status quo- Clinton +10-12-25%
Improved odds- Clinton +13-15- 25%
Completely different race- Clinton +16 or better- 5%
April 21st, 2008 at 7:59 pm
eh…edit to read “Completely over- Clinton less then +6″
April 21st, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Re cash.
We’ve heard this for a while. But she’s still managed to stay in it, and score some convincing victories (she won OH and TX despite being outspent 4-1). IN, KY, and WV aren’t exactly the most expensive states in the US to compete in, either.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Spin, spin, spin.
The longer she is in this race, and winning primaries, by whatever margin, the less electable Obama becomes.
SUSA has an electoral map out a couple of days ago that shows Obama losing to McCain by about 55, and her beating McCain electorally by about 55.
Of course these are based on the current moment of time.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
To pretend that this race hasn’t been over for a long time now is the height of prevarication. It matters not in terms of the nomination itself what happens tomorrow….except in that it would be nice to prolong the farce. Obama has 40 million dollars with which to do us harm, unless he has to spend it attacking Clinton. That’s the sense in which it matters.
April 21st, 2008 at 10:30 pm
This race was over well before Ohio/Texas.
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:51 am
Totally over: Clinton two or less. 10%
Effectively over: Clinton 3-7. 35%
Status Quo: Clinton 8-12. 30%
Improved Odds: Clinton 12-17. 20%
Totally different race: Clinton 18%. 5%
April 22nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
She’s gonna win by 12, I’ll bet.
April 22nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Completely over: Clinton by 2 or less. (10%)
Effectively over: Clinton by 3-8. (55%)
Status quo: Clinton by 9-11. (25%)
Improved odds: Clinton by 12-18. (7%)
Different race: Clinton by 19 or higher. (3%)
Anything falling in the first three categories means Hillary loses. Improved odds means she still loses but holds out a little longer. It’ll take a lot to turn this race on its head.