Pew Research 2008 Democratic National Primary Poll, conducted March 19th-22nd, 2008
- Barack Obama 49%
- Hillary Clinton 39%
Pew Research 2008 General Election Poll, conducted March 19th-22nd, 2008
- Barack Obama 49%
- John McCain 43%
- Hillary Clinton 49%
- John McCain 44%
March 28th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Interesting that Pew appears to have the exact opposite view of this election as both Gallup and Rasmussen. Any idea on what’s skewing this so much?
March 28th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
This isn’t looking good folks. Right after a huge problem with Obama’s preacher and Hillary telling another big whopper, this shows McCain running behind. I think McCain is in trouble if he doesn’t reach out to the conservative wing of the party now for party unity. Only one VP candidate can fully accomplish that, and it just so happens he is by far the most qualified man in the USA.
March 28th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
What questions is Pew asking that makes the results so different from Gallup and Rasmussen?
March 28th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Illinoisguy, this poll doesn’t exactly fit with the other polling being done. Obama up by 10 points on Clinton? I doubt it.
March 28th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Why am I not surprised that one of the Rombots weighs in.
If you actually took the time to look at the poll you’s see that it has McCain getting 92% support from conservatives, a HIGHER level of support than either Obama or Clinton get from liberals. He also has a HIGHER level of support from Republicans overall than they have from Democrats. His level of conservative support is pretty much at the same level that Bush’s was.
He also beats both of them among independents.
Furthermore, the sample of the poll is completely skewing the results. Like most polls, this one oversampled Democrats. It has Republicans making up 28% of the vote here. Now, I don’t care if McCain dug up the Gipper himself as his running mate, If Republicans make up 28% of the vote in November, we’re going to lose, and we’d lose even if the dems nominated Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel.
For comparison, in 2004 the GOP made of 37% of the vote and 35% in both 2000 and 1996. Pew has Dem turnout staying the same and Republican turnout falling by nearly a 3rd? Unlikely. In a 2 party race, with all that’s at stake, the GOP is going to have 20% less turnout than it had even when Perot ran? I don’t think so.
If you use the same turnout as 2004, McCain wins by 2. Even if you use the decreased turnout from the years Perot ran and Clinton was blowing out Dole, they end up tied. Of course Obama is going to beat him if you decrease Republican turnout by 30% and keep Democratic turnout constant.
If you switched the turnout and kept McCain’s constant and decreased Obama’s turnout by 1/3, McCain leads 51-41.
So, anyone can create polls based on skewed samples.
Also, if you delve deeper into the internals, their numbers fro Obama seem terribly unrealistic.
For example, they have him getting a greater % of the white vote than Kerry, Gore or Bill Clinton did. In fact, they have him getting a higher % of the white vote than any democrat since LBJ. Given his numbers in merely dem primaries thus far, that’s highly implausible.
Likewise, they have him getting a higher % of the male vote than any democrat since LBJ. Against a genuine war hero, miltary guy like McCain? I doubt it.
ANd the drop offs from Bush in 2004 are staggering. Bush beat Kerry by 11 among white voters, they have McCain only beating Obama by 2. Bush lost to Kerry among women by 3, they have McCain losing by 13. Bush carried the white vote by 17, they have McCain only carrying it by 7. Bush carried white men by 25 they have McCain carrying them by only 15. Bush carried white women by 11, they have McCain carrying them by 1.
Again, these numbers seem highly suspect to me and I doubt that’s what we’ll end up with in November.
But IllinoisGuy’s comment about the need to put Romney on the ticket to shore up conservative support is completely unsupported, at least by this poll. McCai already has locked up conservative support.
March 28th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Yeah, what we REALLY need right now to win this election is MITT ROMNEY.
LOL
March 29th, 2008 at 12:05 am
jim,
I’m generally with you on the need for McCain to, at least partially, reach out to moderates with his VP choice. But, I’m not sure your analysis stands up. Conservatives aren’t, generally, arguing that disenchanted Republicans will vote for Obama. They almost certainly won’t. Instead, so the argument goes, many conservatives will simply stay home. That would seem to be broadly consistent with a poll that shows abnormally low Republican turnout. That’s part of the reason I want McCain to select a VP who will satisfy conservatives, as well as moderates. Thus, no Liebermans or Crists or Powells or Ridges. There’s only so much of the center that’s in play for even the most Mavericky Republican ticket this time around. And McCain only needs a VP that doesn’t “scare” moderates to capture nearly that entire slice. Beyond that, he’s going to want to work towards A.) Enthusing at least some segments of the Republican base, and B). Targeting blue-collar voters broadly.