Adding to the already dramatic and unpredictable nature of the primary season thus far, it looks like Hillary Clinton just might be able to somehow pull off those miracle victories she needs in OH and TX tomorrow. A slew of polls for both states are out today, and they almost all show very favorable trends for Clinton:
Ohio polls
Rasmussen: Clinton +6 (up from Clinton +2)
PPP: Clinton +9 (up from Clinton +4)
SUSA: Clinton +10 (up from Clinton +6)
Zogby: Obama +2 (down from Clinton +1)Texas polls
Rasmussen: Obama +1 (down from Obama +5)
PPP: Clinton +6 (up from tie)
SUSA: Obama +1 (down from Obama +4)
Zogby: Obama +3 (down from Obama +4)
If these trends continue into voting tomorrow, Hillary might just pull off one of the biggest upsets in recent primary history and blunt much of Obamamentum going into the home stretch. The current RCP average in Texas is 0.5% for Obama, which doesn’t give him much breathing room. For Ohio, it’s Clinton by 6.4%.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Let us all hope that this drags out into the summer…
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Go Hillary, go!
From what I’ve read, she plans on staying in through at least PA as long as she wins OH and doesn’t get blown out in TX. If she wins both, even if she only nets a few delegates, she’s obviously staying.
Clinton wins in both OH and TX guarantees the primary season lasts all the way through Puerto Rico on June 7th and it guarantees a brokered convention where the Super Delegates will have to decide the winner. It also greatly increases the chances of McCain winning in November.
Can you imagine? Another 3 months of the two of them tearing each other apart while McCain remains above the fray, plays the adult, consolidates his base, raises money without spending much of it, and just marches on towards victory. And really, it’s another 4 or 5 months because it will go all the way to the convention, and FL and MI will have to re-vote or be accomodated and that will cause even more consternation and fighting. Recreate ’68.
Even with wins in both OH and TX, Obama will make up the loss with wins in WY and MS, but Clinton will fight on all the way to Denver.
Go Hillary, go!
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I’m expecting something like Hillary by 5 in Texas and Hillary by 8 in Ohio. I think, delegate-wise, she’ll only gain like 30 on him though tomorrow.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
The PPP poll may be on to something in Texas. Most pulls have the gender split in the Dem primary at 52 Female, 48 Male. PPP has it 55 to 45% which seems more like for a Dem Primary.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Hillary will also win Rhode Island and gain some delegates from there.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Which he’d make up when he wins WY and MS next week.
But wins in TX and OH by Hillary guarantee a brokered convention that the Super Delegates have to decide.
It guarantees another few debates where they attack one another
It guarantees another 3 months of the two then going after each other and their supporters becoming even more invested and more ready to be let down when they lose.
It means 6 weeks of absolute scorched earth warfare in PA that will leave both sides bloodied and bruised.
And they’ll still have another 6 weeks after PA until the season ends on June 7th.
And Florida and Michigan will have to be dealt with.
A true nightmare scenario for the democrats.
Go Hillary
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
The Obamamentum has appeared to have been stopped or stalled at the very least. I predict that the Hill wins 3 states tomorrow and the battle goes on
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
The more people know about Obama, the less they like him. The Clintons will be sure to leave no stone unturned.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
The Obama-bust is coming, March 4th!
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I really hope that Hillary wins TX & OH and we get to see a nasty dem convention. My wife and I are both going to vote for her to try to help the process along.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Paul8148,
Agreed. I’m just flabbergasted by the male/breakdown in some of these polls. Democratic primaries have, thus far, been on average 58-60% female. Wisconsin, the last primary, was 58% female. Yet, SurveyUSA has a 53-47 breakdown. If we shift ONLY the female/male ratio back to historic levels, Hillary wins.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Also, the Texas primary is so convoluted. You have the primary and the caucus, you have delegates allcated as a result of 36 separate primaries by district. You have Republicans and Independents allowed to vote.
Hillary could win the primaries but lose the caucuses. She could win the popular vote but Obama would come out ahead in delegates. Obama’s margin of victory could be narrow enough that Hillary could win Democrats but Republicans and Independents could push Obama to victory.
Does she give up if she beats him among democrats in both OH and TX, even if the delegate count or popular vote is different?
Even if she wins both OH and TX by double digit margins and wins PA by a similar margin, Obama will have around at least a 100 delegate lead at the end of this. But if you add in MI and FL, they’ll be virtually tied.
I love it.
March 4th, the Obama-bust is coming. Or is it the Obusta-bust?
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
i think texas is hillary’s. i think the media skipped polling in spanish to give obama a phony edge. the latino vote is going to turn out big for clinton. if she wins ohio and texas, she goes to convention, and i won’t be shocked to see edwards come out for clinton after tomorrow.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
The Barack-o-Break?
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Oh Canada!
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Oh, also SUSA has McCain beating Huckabee by 17% in Texas, and he’s over the 50% threshold mark. The way Texas’s delegates are apportioned, if McCain wins upwards of 55% of the statewide vote, he could very likely win every delegate.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Edwards has 25 delegates or so. If he endorsed her amd released his delegates, that would be the equivalent of her winning another OH or TX.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
That’s another thing that leads me to believe Hillary has Texas in the bag; they’re not polling in Spanish for some reason, and in the Republican Florida primary, polling companies that failed to do this understated McCain’s support by 3-6%. Texas has a similar sized Hispanic population, and Hillary is similarly strong with this group.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Matthew,
WHat about the caucuses and the delegate system. From what I’ve read, even if Hillary wins TX, Obama could end up with more delegates because places like Austin and cities with heavy black turnout have more delegates.
You also could have Republicans and Independents pumping up Obama’s #s.
I hope it ends up being a huge debacle with both sides claiming victory.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Matt,
I think you’re right. It happened in California too – on both the Democrat and Republican sides.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I notice nobody commented on my “Oh Canada” comment, so, let me expound. Obama’s forign policy reputation went down the drain with the canadian consulate trade talk blunder. That is part of the reason why Hillary is going to win big tomorrow.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
jim,
Well, Rush and all sorts of Republican types have been yammering for Republicans to vote for Hillary tomorrow. I think that could be as responsible for Hillary’s slight uptick as anything else; I’d be surprised if Obama won Republicans by more then 10-15% tomorrow. Anyway, all Hillary needs to stay in, and plausibly regain the momentum, is the psychological victory of winning the popular vote. She might well lose the delegate total, but that won’t sufficiently stop new momentum.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:28 pm
The best possible outcome would be for Clinton to win OH, RI and the TX primary with Obama winning VT and the TX caucus. That way Clinton is the one everyone will talk about. The best thing is that PA is almost 2 months away and there is almost nothing in between now and then.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:28 pm
joe M,
Obama had a foreign policy reputation? Well, I suppose he stayed in a Holiday Inn Express in Indonesia when he was 6.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Jonathan,
I think we want Clinton to win both the primary the caucus if possible. She won’t be the nominee regardless; Al Gore’s going to throw things Barack’s way at the convention. Therefore, we want Hillary to be as strong a position as possible pre-convention. Hillary winning 55% of the remaining delegates=schism, and a weakened Barack.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Don’t pop any corks yet. Let’s first remember that Clinton has 20+ point leads in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island just two weeks ago. The idea that Obama made up close to 20 points shows a lack of momentum reflects a lack of reality.
In Texas Gloria Steinem trashing a veteran is big news and it turns off men, including hispanic men. Also, don’t forget Texas has a primary and caucus which probably favors Obama. Finally, delegates matter and a small win for Clinton would mean no delegate advantage. Its not just about winning a state; its about closing the delegate gap.
Clearly Clinton has the lead and support of the establishment in Ohio, but her once formidable lead has been cut in half. Again, that means fewer delegates.
So say its a split result as expected but Clinton makes nets only 10 or so delegates. Gov. Rendell says that is not enough to fight on. Gov. Richardson said likewise. More calls will then come for her to quit and after some tears she will do so.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
There is a schism going on anyways, after all Pew said that roughly 20% of white democrats would vote for McCain if Obama is the nomineee. There are McCainiacs and McCainocrats apparently
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 pm
One last point. Huckabee was re-endorsed by the Dallas Morning News and has ticked up. If republicans either stay home because they think its over or vote Hillary, Huckabee could steal it.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Axel,
Nonsense. Hillary will not quit before Pennsylvania if she wins the popular votes in Texas and Ohio, no matter what the delegate count looks like. She has no incentive to. Winning Texas and Ohio probably wins her Pennsylvania, whereupon she has her awfully compelling argument at the convention “I won 9 of the 10 biggest states including big swing states like Penn, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida”. Given that Obama is demonstrably weaker in general election matchups in all of these states, and given that a winning Democratic nominee absolutely MUST win 2 of the 4, the Clinton’s walk into the convention with a terrific argument for why super-delegates should throw the nomination her way. Hillary isn’t stupid, and she’s certainly aware that winning both Ohio and Texas gives her a 25% or better chance of coming out of the convention the nominee. She’d be a fool to bow out in that scenario. For what? And under what justification? “I have the momentum, and I’m heading into favorable terrain, but I’m going to bow out because…umm…right”?
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Axel,
SUSA has Huckabee down by 17 points. He’s not going to “steal it”.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Perhaps you know how butch women think better than I do, but I am talking pure politics. Her ovaries may want to fight on in the name of the sacred feminine, but the powers that be are going to come forward and say the race is over. Super delegates are going to leave her and cross over. Ed Rendell could easily endorse Obama. You say she would be a fool to bow out. I saw she would be a fool to go into a state where the governor has said its over.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Also,
There another 7 weeks until PA and another 6 months until the convention. That’s plenty of time for Pat Fitzgerald to go after Rezko, plenty of time for more dirt to come out on Obama, for the mania to fade. If she wins she has no reason to drop out.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Well, Axel’s true colors come out
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
This governor also said that the Democrats of his state were too racist to vote for Obama. I would love to see the TV ad
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Rendell has a history of going off the reservation anyway (It’s the one thing I like about him). Rendell is the guy that said Gore should give up in 2000 before he was ready to. Also Rendell said that Alito ought to be confirmed because he was qualified to be on the Supreme Court.
Just because Rendell speaks doesn’t mean that Democrats follow.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
But that is why Rendell is respected. He’s tough (and he supported Alito because they’re catholics).
The bottom line is Clinton can’t catch Obama. the math is against her and superdelegates aren’t going to save her. If she stays in to the detriment of the Dems she will put her senate seat in jeopardy.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
“the math is against her and superdelegates aren’t going to save her. ”
Ahh but the superdelegates are fickle. We’ve already seen defections to Obama. Who is to say that others won’t defect the other way if Obama gets some negative press? It’s not like he has gotten any taste of that so far. There is no guarantee that Obambi will wear well under pressure.
“If she stays in to the detriment of the Dems she will put her senate seat in jeopardy.”
With respect, I don’t think you know New York State politics very well. Who is going to beat her? The Republicans are in a long slumber in the Empire State with no resources. State senators have enough headaches as Uncle Joe Bruno is about to lose his majority leader post – so the only way that she loses her seat is to a Democrat in a primary challenge. The only name that comes to mind is Junior Cuomo and he’s looking for an executive prize – Spitzer’s job. Besides that, Hil’s not up for reelection until 2012. Plenty of time to kiss and make up.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
The year is 2012. New CNN political correspondent Hillary Clinton interviews VP Mitt Romney, the prospective republican nominee.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Axel G,
Rendell supported Alito because they’re Catholics?
For a Washington insider you seem remarkably uniformed.
If Hillary wins in OH and fights on in PA, there’s no way Rendell would bail on her for Obama. He’ll be her top surrogate in a state that will be the center of the political and media world for 7 weeks with no other distractions.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Axel G –
With Crist talking about Florida holding another Democrat primary and Michael Barone noting that Puerto Rico tends to award almost all of its delegates to one candidate or another, anything’s possible.
Hillary Clinton could pull this out. By “pull this out”, I mean, win Ohio, squeak by in Texas and prolong the Democrats’ agony until the convention. As a Republican, I’d love to see it.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Axel,
You’re missing the point; no one is going to abandon Clinton on the heels of a 3 major victories. Party insiders might want to, but given that she’s been written off for dead over the last 3 weeks, and probably less then 1/3 of the public expects her to win ANYTHING tomorrow (due to the media narrative), she will decisively have a public sense of momentum if she wins Ohio and Texas tomorrow. I’d go as far as to say that Clinton CAN’T bow out before Pennsylvania if she wins 3 of 4 tomorrow; she’ll anger her supporters and possibly cause more party disruption. Heck, Huckabee’s supporters still think he has a chance, but you expect me to believe that millions of Clinton supporters, will happily fall in line if she’s forced out the race, after 3 huge victories, and when she has an excellent argument to bring to the convention (I won two of the states that Democrats absolutely MUST win in order to win the presidency)? Really? Even though multiple polls show that Clinton’s supporters are much less likely to fall in line behind the alternative in the general? It’s just pure silliness to imagine, but I’ll enjoy watching such a disastrous spectacle if Dem leaders are feeling suicidal.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
jim,
Agreed. That’s another incentive for the Democrats and Rendell to let this thing play out if Hillary has a good day tomorrow. Pennsylvania may well be THE key state in November. The publicity surrounding a competitive primary not only helps Pennsylvania as a state (free media, tourism, etc) and Rendell by proxy, but it possibly improves the chances of the Democratic nominee in November. I maintain that the failure of the Democratic candidates to campaign in Florida is, as much as anything else, responsible for the state’s solid redness in an Obama matchup.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I think the ideal outcome for us repuglicans is a razor-thin Clinton victory in Texas, by like .08 pecent, one that requires lots of recounting and fighting and stuff, and a good Clinton win in Ohio. Heh eh.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
It’s the Rezko deal. The trial started today. Novak had a big piece on it this morning. Obama is now tied to Saddam Hussein through an Iraqi Billionaire who lent money to Rezko right before Rezko sold Obama a southside Chicago mansion for pennies.
This thing is huge and is about to blow up! Stay tuned!!
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
>”Obama is now tied to Saddam Hussein through an Iraqi Billionaire”
The Rezko thing is a legitimate issue, but making crazy claims abut it will undermine its strength.
There is no connection to Saddam Hussein. Obama has ties to Rezko; Rezko has ties to a rich guy in London who is originally from Iraq.
That’s it.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
>”Rezko sold Obama a southside Chicago mansion for pennies.”
Missed that sentence. Rezko did not sell Obama a house of any type (for pennies or anything else).