Uh oh, it seems that our Great American Messiah continues to be exposed as just another cynical politician. Last night he called for NAFTA to be renegotiated and if that wasn’t satisfactory, he would pull the US out of the agreement. As a staunch free trader, that is extraordinarily scary given that Obama has about a 50/50 shot at being the 44th president next January.
See this video from Tuesday night’s debate:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsO_hL73fEM[/youtube]
Now watch this Canadian Television news segment last night. It seems as if one of Obama’s senior staffers called up the Canadian Ambassador “within the last month” and assured him that although Obama would take some shots at NAFTA, Canada should view it as just campaign rhetoric. Asked about it today, the Obama campaign doesn’t deny that they contacted the Ambassador. This begs the question though: what happened to the audacity of hope?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAJYMgX4JuU[/youtube]
February 28th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
As a capitalist I am glad its rhetoric.
This site should pay more attention to the GOP and its candidates. McCain is facing some tough issues. The NYtimes has an article asking whether McCain is even constitutionally eligible to be president. I had assumed being born on a military base was good enough, but apparently not and McCain has asked Ted Olson to research it.
Second issue is this question of campaign financing. Today George Will’s column had this interesting bit of inflo: “There are two ways for a candidate to get on Ohio’s primary ballot — comply with complex, expensive rules for gathering signatures, or simply be certified to receive taxpayer funding. McCain’s major Republican rivals did the former. He did the latter.”
Does that mean that Huckabee or anyone else could challenge McCain’s name being on the ballot? Are there other states that have this rule and does that joepardize the delegates already awarded?
February 28th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
BTW, is anybody else enjoying the slow and inexorable demise of the Clintons?
I know we all wanted to see the GOP beat them in November but that would have been a one shot deal. In a way this is more enjoyable to behold. Bill and Hillary are being rejected by their own people. Kicked to the curb for something newer and younger.
And it wasn’t something that just happend and you move on. It’s been an ongoing collapse for close to two months now that started with Iowa. To see Bill tarnish his legacy on South Carolina and the Super Delegates slowly defect, to see Hillary gradually lose it and get decimated in two national debates. They’ve tried everything and they just can’t do anything about it.
To see her lose by 36, 36, 21, 19, 31, 24, 51, 17 and 52 over the last few weeks, the media turn on her, it’s all been great.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer pair.
February 28th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Well,
Obama has a better chance of winning then 50/50, it’s more like 80/2, IMO. Most people don’t care about the ins and outs of free trade, they just know Washington is the mess and Obama offers an newcomers outsiders edge to it.
I hope McCain wins, but sadly I am just not seeing it right now.
February 28th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Axel,
That’s a fair point. I’m actually working on a piece on the ridiculous NYT story.
Jason,
So…why is McCain beating Obama (at the height of his popularity) in multiple general election polls?
February 28th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
The military question is nonsensical. My sister and brother were both born on a military base in Berlin. If I had been born two years later, I would have been as well. So I’m awfully teed off about even the suggestion that military brats aren’t “real Americans”.
February 28th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
It is a actually a good thing that Obama is trying to be Mr. Protectionism, since McCain is very much a free trader. Maybe we can have a full debate about trade policy and expose Obama and Protectionists as the trade fools they are
February 28th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Jason,
80/20? Give me a break…
McCain is leading in national polling now.
A new Mason-Dixon poll has McCain leading Obama by 10 points in FL!
Seems like your opinion that Obama has an 80% chance of winning is rooted in something else besides the actual facts available to us at this time.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Mccain needs to completely forget about California, New York and Illinois and concentrate on all the other states, with emphasis on OH,PA,MI,WI,FL,MO and GA. He can win.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
I really, really hope the Canadian news report is true.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Edit: Watch the personal insults.-KWN
At this point Carter was beating Reagan and Dukakis was beating Bush in the polls. Obama has a lot of advantages in this race. He has a much more energized base and he’ll have a much bigger grassroot GOTV campaign, which is going to affect the vote on Election Day but not the polls up until then.
Plus Obama has gotten a lot better in debates recently. I’m terrified about what’s going to happen in October when a short, old, and stiff McCain stands next to Obama.
Looking only at the polls and reassuring yourself at this point makes you no smarter than Jimmy Carter’s supporters in 1980. Obama has the optimism and energy of Reagan’s campaign as well. This isn’t going to be as easy as you think.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
I don’t understand this citizenship problem. From the time we are about 3rd graders we are taught that any child born to American citizens is automatically and American citizen, no matter where in the world they are born, right?
February 28th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Joe M,
I’ll go one step further…
I say that McCain should essentially wage a three state campaign in OH, PA, and FL.
If he wins those, Obama simply cannot.
Obama is simply just not going to pull out victories in CO and VA folks. That is a total pipe dream.
Barack has more money? Yeah… So? McCain only needs enough money to contest those three states. He wins them (and there is no reason he can’t) and he’s POTUS.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
More importantly, if McCain wins PA, OH, and FL and Obama wins all of the other Gore states, plus NH, VA, and CO, he still loses.
If McCain can hold the MT West (NV, CO, and NM) and win PA, it really becomes difficult for Obama to win, as flipping MO, NH, WV, and VA won’t do the trick.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
If the question of McCain’s birth were nonsensical he would not have asked a former solicitor general to research it. Here is what I believe will be the determinative question: what is the legal status of an army base? An embassy is by international law considered the territory of the visiting country. Thus, a child born in an embassy is clearly a natural born American. I have never heard that a military base is similarly defined by international law. But the equities certainly favor McCain.
McCain’s campaign finance issues are considerably more troubling. I had thought the response from the bank lawyers was enough of an answer, but the question now is, if fed funds wasn’t the collateral for the loan then what was? A donor list as collateral does not make sense and frankly makes the loan sound more questionable.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Update: Huckabee questions McCain’s finances.
Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee said Thursday that John McCain may be unable to campaign for months because of questions raised about his effort to exit the primary election’s public financing system.
“Not only do we not have all the delegates all in place for him, there is a question as to whether his campaign is even going to be able to be active between now and September,” the former Arkansas governor told reporters in a conference call Thursday.
February 28th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Steve Chapman just published a column about how both Obama and Hillary are dead wrong about NAFTA. The link is Here.
February 28th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
I really, really hope the Canadian news report is true.
Nope, but nice try….by somebody.
Canadian Embassy: Report On Obama And NAFTA Is False
February 28th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
So Obama is raising people’s hopes on issues he intends to do nothing about?
I think it’s awful for him to manipulate people with false hopes just for his selfish ambition.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Let me just be clear — I hoped that the report was true not because it would be bad press for Obama, but because it would mean that Obama wouldn’t carry such antediluvian views on trade into office if he was elected. *sigh*
February 28th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Per Caroline’s article (a good find, btw):
“Norton did allow, however, that the embassy on the staff level had discussed multiple issues, including NAFTA, with the Obama and Hillary campaigns at various times, and had urged them to look at NAFTA in a positive light.”
Ok, both campaigns discussed multiple issues, including NAFTA, just not with the ambassador. I think, even if the worst possible scenario for Sen Obama is true, that the message was relayed through the embassy staff that Sen Obama would say one thing in the election and do another if elected, it amounts to a large, stinking, steaming pile of nothing. Virtually all campaigns do this. As a nation, we’ve come to expect pandering by our politicians. Add in the fact that there isn’t even a clear link that the allegation, in fact, occurred (and a quasi-denial of it by the third party), and it’s hardly worth mentioning. The only possible angle would be for a potential hypocrisy, and I don’t really see this as getting there.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Just to clarify: From the point of the Dem primary, or even the general election, I couldn’t care less, as I doubt this story would get much purchase. I was just hoping (and still hope, and almost expect given his quality economic team) that he wouldn’t carry such views on trade into office.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
First how do you know that this is the heigth of obama’s electability?
Second I think resting on a head to head match up is folly. Complete false sense of security. These polls will matter after the convention.
Third, my faith in the average voter to take the time to consider the details of statement like these in this post and look beyond the rhetoric Is at a low.
I don’t want obama to win, I hope mccain will, but I don’t think he honestly has a 50/50 chance. Doesn’t mean he won’t win, he had a 99/1 chance for the nomination in november, and he made that happen, but there are so many obstacles mccain is in for a tough road, IMO.