Don’t read too much into them:
Fellow journalists and pundits. I have the same data you have… and I would just remind all of you that the first wave of exit poll data is not reportable or reported for a simple reason: the sample sizes are not large enough to accurately tell us much of anything, unless one candidate is getting, like, 80% of the vote.
The second wave of exit polls are always far more reliable. I’m sure we all remember the first wave polls showing John Kerry blowing away George Bush in 2004.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Point taken. They were accurate for FL I think however.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Probably why intrade hasn’t moved much.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
On #1. They showed McCain leading by about a point. he won by 5.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
Later exits should include younger and working people – which should help Romney, and maybe Huck.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
damage control
February 5th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
#4
I was gonna point out the same thing. McCain’s core constituency is among senior citizens and they tend to vote early.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
LJ,
Are u nervous?
February 5th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
The Romney voters (with lots of little kids) vote later in the evening in most places because they have to switch off between parents. That’s how I am doing it.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
To be honest, I’d be happy with these exit polls. If they change significantly, Romney’s likely to be hurt most, simply because Missouri is winner take all and hangs by a thread at this point.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Based on the polls though, Romney has a chance is Missouri and California (which are both musts for him to have any chance). Right now it is trending…
McCain 500 delegates
Romney 400 delegates
Huckabee 150 delegates
We may be headed to a brokered convention folks…
Bad news is Obama is winning (I believe Hillary is our best chance of winning as Republicans regardless of the Republican nominee).
February 5th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
There’s not going to be a brokered convention.
The exit polls are wrong.
John McCain will win tonight.
Move along.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Cap,
Actually, based on these exit polls, I’d expect McCain to walk away with 580, Romney to walk away with about 350, and Huck to hit 200-250. So a a mixed bag. There’s a good chance that Romney/Huck> McCain, which does signal a possible brokered convention, given that McCain will have lost a good deal of his momentum if he ends the night with under 600 delegates.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Hey Matthew, LJ, Matt, Jason,
Will someone open a thread for tonight?
February 5th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Yeah, that would be really great. Anytime Romney gets close to 400 delegates, it could all happen. But is a brokered convention where Huck promises his delegates to McCain if McCain puts him on the ticket? ‘Cause then the US is, how do you say. . .
February 5th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
CNN/MSNBC call GA for Obama – GOP to close to call
February 5th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Matthew, unless you are counting Missouri in McCain’s camp, I can’t see McCain getting more than 530 delegates. I did an elaborate excel sheet (for what its worth) with all the percentages updated. Again, garbage in/garbage out, but right now it has…
McCain 502
Romney 377
Huckabee 150
I have Missouri in Romney’s camp. If he does not take this state, McCain will be the run away winner. Net, its up to the show me state.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
All the pundits and pollsters (Zogby and Rasmussen for starters) said McCain was going to have at least 700 delegates after tonight. If that is not the case, Romney is going to have a shot at the nomination,
and a decent one, with all the liberal eastern states out of the way and Texas, Ohio etc. likely to go for him. If Romney is within 300 tonight of McCain, Romney has to be feeling GREAT about the result. If
Missouri and/or Georgia go Romney, watch out.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
30 delegates in Georgia are winner take all….the rest are proportional…..so Mitt winning the state would be very important. 20 delegates in California are winner take all, so once again, winning the state is important. Missouri, where I voted today, is the key state. Almost everybody I know was voting for Mitt, although 2 of my friends are for Ron Paul.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Minor correction, Dave: Only 14 of California’s delegates are WTA.