January 31, 2008

Poll Watch: Insider Advantage GOP Tennessee Primary

Insider Advantage GOP Tennessee Primary

  • John McCain 33%
  • Mike Huckabee 25%
  • Mitt Romney 18%
  • Ron Paul 9%
  • Undecided 13%

Survey of 375 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 30, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

by @ 11:19 am. Filed under Poll Watch
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29 Responses to “Poll Watch: Insider Advantage GOP Tennessee Primary”

  1. jcali Says:

    Is it winner take all?

    btw, Jmac totally botched the opportunity last night to win over core conservatives. He needed to be gracious, presidential, humble, and recognize the flaws and reservations many conservatives have for him and attempt to resolve those concerns.

    Unfortunately, was rude, angry, and snide and refused to admit he may had been wrong.

    If mac wins, I honestly don’t know if I can vote for him. Last night only increased by concerns.

  2. IAHawk Says:

    It’s gonna be a crazy week in terms of all the polls that will be coming out.

    I suggest having one thread to discuss all these polls. thoughts

  3. Billy Says:

    Yes i believe this state is WTA, plus dont forget that Tennesee is an OPEN primary, which is good news for mccain. And he did fine in last nights debate, everyone clearly said that it was a draw and mccain did no harm to himself. I think Romney actually did the worst b/c he looked like an arrogant SOB attacking the War Hero John McCain.

  4. Illinoisguy Says:

    New rasmussen national:

    McCain 30%
    Romney 28%
    Huckabee 19%
    Paul 6%

    Part of this is after Florida win by McCain and knowledge of Rudy endorsement.

  5. Adam Says:

    “He needed to be gracious, presidential, humble, and recognize the flaws and reservations many conservatives have for him and attempt to resolve those concerns.”

    I keep hearing this and I don’t buy it. Shrill laura Ingraham said the same thing on her radio show. McCain doesn’t need to do any such thing. In a normal primary contest maybe you could make the point that the front-runner shouldn’t get into a dogfight with other candidates. But that doesn’t apply here. The reason front-runners don’t get into the dirt with other candidates is because they usually don’t need to. That’s not the case with Mitt. Mitt outspent McCain 10 to 1 on TV ads in Florida. And McCain can’t just ride his front-runner status with the knowledge that he doesn’t need to worry because his rival won’t be able to fundraise because Mitt doesn’t need to fund raise.

    After McCain is well ahead in the delegate count then he can worry about being gracious. Until then he needs to mercilessly beat Romney over and over again into submission until he goes away.

  6. David Says:

    People, people – if Huck dropped out, McCain gets the bulk of his support. Romney gets trounced in a face-to-face. There’s no cultural affiliation between Huck voters and Romney – none.

  7. Billy Says:

    IAHawk,

    I would be in favor of that, also a good site to visit is RCP.com. They have all the polls laid out that have come out for today so far, and i think they do a good job of that.

  8. Illinoisguy Says:

    Tennessee is not a winner take all. It’s kinda complex: This is what wikipedia shows:

    District Proportional (WTA 50% +) at large bonus proportional (WTA 50%)

    Whatever that all means….

  9. Jack Says:

    #3 arrogant SOB attacking the War Hero John McCain

    Billy, what did “war hero” have to do with the debate last night? He even praised his military service last night.

  10. Illinoisguy Says:

    David, that’s not true! Almost everything I see shows Mitt as Huckabee supporters second choice.

  11. Jeffrey Says:

    David – your #6 is not factual. Many Huckabee supporters are progmatic enough to recognize that McCain takes the GOP in the wrong direction and that given the two remaining viable candidates, Romney has the value voters on his side – evidenced time and time again in the exit polls.

    And as a side note, here’s a Huck blogger endorsing Mitt.
    http://huck2008.blogspot.com/2008/01/im-endorsing-mitt-romney.html

  12. David Says:

    #10 – check your FL exit polls. That’s actually not true. Romney did better with Giulani voters.

  13. race42008.com » Blog Archive » Huck It Says:

    [...] bashing of some polling firms, including Insider Advantage, but the results that Aron posted from Tennessee and Georgia are eye openers. McCain’s momentum from his victories in South Carolina and [...]

  14. Axel G. (independent) Says:

    Just thought I’d interject a little money into the discussion. AP is reporting that Obama raised $32 million – in January!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080131/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_money_6;_ylt=AmbHQetwgeY1NghA3KhITtoE1vAI

  15. Tommy Oliver Says:

    Billy,
    TN is a CLOSED primary. Trust me, I vote in it.

  16. Illinoisguy Says:

    I’m not talking about Giuliani voters. As the Huckabee supporters have diminished, they have broken toward Romney, thus Mitt winning evangelicals in Florida by 34% Huck 28%, McCain 25%.

  17. David Says:

    #11 & #10 – Check the bottom of the page. It’s not even close.

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#FLREP

  18. David Says:

    #16 – read your data first. McCain was the second choice of 55% of Huck voters.

  19. David Says:

    In other words, don’t buy the spin – there’s a reason why Huck likes McCain. It’s the same reason Huck voters like McCain.

  20. Jeffrey Says:

    Rudy raised $14MM Q4 and spent $18MM Q4 and has 2 delegates to show for his effort

    http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00430512/319287/#ALLOCATION

  21. Ray Says:

    Tommy,
    Do you still have inside connections to the Thompson Campaign? PLEASE get word to Fred that he needs to contact Mitt and work something out….Help stop the madness! McCain can’t be allowed to walk away with this nomination. If Fred can endorse and run with Mitt I think it turns this whole election right around over night. I’m sick to my stomach over the probability of a McCain nomination.

  22. ugadawg Says:

    Tommy,

    Sorry man but you are wrong. I just moved to Tennessee two months ago. I went and voted yesterday and was asked which ballot I wanted.

  23. Volunteer Voters » New Tennessee Republican Primary Poll Shows McCain Lead Outside Margin Of Error Says:

    [...] Advantage has released a poll of 375 likely Republican primary voters in Tennessee conducted January 30, 2008, It shows: [...]

  24. Tommy Oliver Says:

    ugadawg,
    It is a blanket primary (I think that is the term). When you are asked which ballot you want, then you are declaring your party. Your name is taken and you are listed as a republican.

  25. ugadawg Says:

    Oh ok. I see what you are saying. I guess I still consider that “open” as basically you can just pick your party on election day.

  26. Tommy Oliver Says:

    Here’s what the actual law requires for some clarification:

    When a voter appears to vote during any Primary Election, they must declare whether they wish to vote in the Democratic Primary or the Republican Primary. The voter’s declaration is recorded on a signed Application for Ballot. The ballot issued to the voter for the Primary Election will have only the names of candidates in their party.

    http://www.scottcounty.com/Election/primary_general.cfm

  27. John Mark Says:

    26, That sounds like an open primary for all practical purposes.

  28. Tommy Oliver Says:

    John Mark,
    It’s different. You are registered with the party on election day. You can’t declare yourself an independent or democrat and vote on the republican ballot. That is why it is recorded. You are tied to the delegates you select.

  29. Falz Says:

    We need to clarify this: what is a war hero and what have to do to be on? Maybe lose 5 ships?.

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