If anything, I have been consistent in my bashing of some polling firms, including Insider Advantage, but the results that Aron posted from Tennessee and Georgia are eye openers. McCain’s momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida have moved him ahead of Huckabee in both states.
Granted, this is the same polling firm that had Newt Gingrich in 2nd place as late as May in South Carolina, but this goes to show that if the trends are accurate, the only thing that matters in this election is momentum, soundbytes, and the mainstream media coverage.
I bet if McCain and Huck had a meeting today, it would sound a lot like this:
[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=_RfBqoBJJ3s[/youtube]
January 31st, 2008 at 11:51 am
I know this is the third thread I’ve posted this, but I think it’s important. Florida data shows that McCain is the second choice of Huck voters by a wide margin. That’s why Huckabee voters are flowing directly to McCain in the South.
The idea that Romney could beat McCain if Huckabee dropped out is talk radio illusion.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:55 am
It WILL be a McCain-Huckabee ticket, I think.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Joe M,
Not a chance. A McCain/Huckabee ticket is such a breathtakingly awful idea, even John McCain would be loathe to suggest it. I’d short Huckabee VP contracts like mad if I were playing intrade.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Unless the word gets out how bad McCain performed last night this baby is over. I think the debates will be the story of the Sunday talk shows, but that will not be enough to stop McCain’s obvious momentum.
But come Feb 6th when both nominees might be known the narrative will change. If its Obama v McCain it will be two media darlings, but one historic the other prehistoric. The MSM will have a fieldday.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
#3 – I agree with you. Their voters overlap to a big degree. Huckabee brings McCain nothing. He’ll need a young, conservative governor… er, like Mitt Romney!
January 31st, 2008 at 12:08 pm
what the heck was that?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:13 pm
David,
Don’t hold your breath…
Romney Wouldn’t Accept VP Slot … Not That McCain’s Offering
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/01/28/politics/fromtheroad/entry3760332.shtml
Here is the Intrade update for the GOP VP nominee:
Huckabee 23.5
Giuliani 12.0
Pawlenty 12.0
January 31st, 2008 at 12:18 pm
I think Huckabee would make a great UN spokesman. Other than that, its chancy.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:19 pm
It looks like the nominee will be McCain. Huckabee is falling behind everywhere while Romney only has a small handful of states. I’m hoping for a McCain/Huckabee ticket running against Hillary Clinton. If Clinton beats Obama, blacks and independents are going to be really upset at the Democratic party. McCain attracts independents more than any other Republican, and Huckabee attracts blacks more than any other Republican. Huckabee won 48% of the black vote in Arkansas.
Add to all that the fact that the Democrats dissed Florida and Michigan in their primary allowing the Republicans to get head starts in those states. Also, the war is turning very favorable for the Republicans with the success over there. The Republicans may win in a rout this November.
What worries me is McCain. I know he’s bad on immigration. We could deal with that as long as he’s good on judges. He would be like another Bush except probably better on reigning in spending.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Aron, nothing on Crist as a potential VP? I would have thought that is how McCain has won his endorsement. I think he offered him at least a cabinetary seat.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#4 Axel
You’re right, only real political junkies are watching or caring about the debates. The rest of America gets their opinions filtered through the MSM. It will be McCain, sad to say. Can’t vote for him no matter what.
This question is for anyone who has a clue:
So who will be the third-party independents?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:23 pm
McCain’s VP will be John Thune.
Brett,
That was Gary Busey, who McCain has reminded me an awful lot of recently.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Tommy,
John McCain won’t go with 2 senators and I have to think he’d need a really compelling rationale to pass up Tim Pawlenty, who I think is the most likable guy in our party, when the convention is being held in Minneapolis.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I agree that the only way that McCain is stopped at this point is for the debate last night to be a momentum shifter. It has that potentional since so many voters seem to decide late, AND McCain’s negatives on display are exactly the type of thing people fear about him. On the other hand, it was on CNN, and for most people it will depend on how the MSM spins it. Some people have actually suggested it was McCain’s victory lap. Yeah, the kind of victory lap where the winner crashes into the other competitors.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Matthew,
“Tim Pawlenty, who I think is the most likable guy in our party, when the convention is being held in Minneapolis.”
On the other hand, it might come off as simply picking the home town guy, and diminish the selection.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:52 pm
hey brett – what is the rationale for huck staying in now, when he clearly is going to lose all the southern states. and how does huck defend taking money from all his supporters when he never tried to beat his opponent?
January 31st, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Aron, you forgot Field/Other, which is trading highest of all.