ala Hugh Hewitt. It’s why Mitt is still in this. I do remember hearing that whoever won NH would win MI, that certainly didn’t hold, and it was touted till election day. Things can change quickly. Mitt has a tough road in front of him, but he is the man for the challenge.
Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)
Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.
Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain’s got 409 delegates and Romney’s got 126.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26Total 671
If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.
Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
If McCain is up 400 plus the party will push Romney out because McCain can go out and raise money since it looks like Obama vs. Hillary will go on throughout the spring atleast.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
is there any chance at all that huckabee will try and win this thing instead of just being mccain’s lackey? anyone see him trying to distance himself from johnny boy at the debates tonight? i think his ego is big enough to try it.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Paul,
That makes no sense. Because McCain won’t go over 400 in a vacuum. If they both have high delegate counts with 900 delegatees still ahead, then it’s still anyones game. If we have McCain at 800 and Mitt at 200 then It looks like he is finished.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
joe c,
He could be thinking if Mitt has chance, so does he. they are only like 30 delegates apart.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
That way underestimates Huckabee’s southern state delegates. Recent polling shows Huckabee in first or tied for first place in Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Missouri and Oklahoma are winner take alls….and Georgia is a unofficial one.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
DUDES! anyone else hearing this?! Steve Forbes quasi-endorsing McCain. Kick A!
Edit: Sampo… Can we knock off the “resident R408 Islamic Terorist (sic)” thing?-KWN
January 30th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
I think Huckabee has high hopes in this election. I just heard an advertisement for his book on the radio. He plans to soak this for everything he can get.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
This is ridiculous. So if McCain wins 50+ percent of the delegates on Super Tuesday, what will Romney do to stop him? Which states after Super Tuesday could he have an advantage in after McCain has won over fifty percent of the delegates and, according to the math, be only a few hundred delegates away. This is pretty much saying that if McCain has already won 50-60% of the delegates, then Romney will just begin winning states. This is uncanny logic.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Wasn’t Forbes supporting Rudy?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
I only remember one recent poll that showed second choices for voters. Huckabee’s voters second choice was overwhelmingly McCain, and McCain voters’ second choice was the Huckster – by 55-58% in both cases.
I have no idea where Guiliani voters will go….that will be critical going forward.
But it looks to me like having Huck stay in actually helps Mitt. Given Huck’s verbose anti-Mormon past, it wouldn’t surprise me if most of his supporters are anti-Mormon bigots.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Forbes did endorse Rudy, but Rudy is toast.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Ben,
You can dispute the math, but I am just not sold that Super Tuesday will be a blowout. Who knows though, we’ll have our answer on Tuesday.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Yes, obviously two candidates fighting for the conservative wing of the party and only one fighting for the moderate wing of the party benefits one of the two fighting for the conservative vote.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Jason,
Don’t let McCain Derangement Syndrome lead you into forgetting about Maine, which McCain will win.. woot woot.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
So in other words, Mitt Romney can win about 90% of the delegates allocated after Super Tuesday (after gaining less than 25% of the delegates allocated up to that point,) and grab the nomination!
Jason, will you do my taxes for me?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Jason,
What states benefit Romney post-Tuesday that would amount to such a remarkable turn around?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Maine’s tomorrow. Romney can talk up his new “silver”
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Grandma T. “I think Huckabee has high hopes in this election. I just heard an advertisement for his book on the radio. He plans to soak this for everything he can get.”
I live in Michigan and I just heard a radio ad for his book yesterday in the Detroit area.
Not surprisingly, I thought the same thing.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
by benefit, I mean favor. sorry for any confusion
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Sorry, Maine’s friday.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Is Maine winner take all?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
The question comes down to whether conservatives are going to change their values and support McCain. Lets see how much MITT wants it tonight at the debate.
BTW…what time is the debate? Channel?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Those who voted for Huckabee in Florida had McCain as their second choice over Romney by almost a 2 to 1 ratio.
Looks like Huckabee helps Romney at this point.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
grandma T,
which book? ‘From Hope to Higher Ground’? ‘Character’? or is it a new one?
anyway, check out this 527 ad against Romney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFGA_HN3Yc&feature=PlayList&p=FD9F88028457D175&index=0
pretty persuasive….
January 30th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
CNN 8pm EST
January 30th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Maine isn’t a winner take all, but it might as well be. McCain should win it huge. 21 delegates are up for grabs..
it’s all on realclearpolitics.com grandma T.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html
January 30th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.”
And under your scenario Romney would have to win over 830 of those 900 delegates. You think this demonstrates he’s still in it?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Oh and as much as a Mitt supporter as I am… the Math next Wednesday will be very quick. If Mitt/Mac is more than 20% behind the other, it’s concession speech, throw in support – anything closer and its tooth and nail till the convention.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
WA, NE, TX, IN, ID, WI, SD, KS, VA, HI,
Those are if he can come out with enough delegates on Super Tuesday. I don’t think he will come out empty handed. I admit, it’s a tough battle, but it’s not over, and he has a chance, and needs to take it. Someone needs to voice conservatism.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Hey i live here in Maine, actually it starts Friday and goes until Sunday. It last 3 days and has a total of i believe 27 delegates, and i think it is divided among 3 distrits but i could be wrong, but all will go to mccain b/c he is leading here in all polls done by local media, and the person that is even close to him is Giuliani, and now that he is endorsing mccain then mccain will win by a landslide here and get all of are delgates which will put him overa 100
January 30th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Yeah, I think he needs 400+ to be viable, maybe 500 after super tuesday.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
As a Huckabee supporter, I’ve been divided over who is my 2nd choice. I liked Thompson for my number two until he dropped out. Then it switched to Romney until the last debate when Romney clearly cheated. Someone who would do something like that is someone who has an insatiable lust for power. Romney is not to be trusted. I agree with his stated issue positions more than McCain, but I don’t believe Romney means what he says. So, McCain is now my number two. I’m still holding out hope that Huckabee is the nominee, but for that to happen he’d have to sweep the South on Feb. 5 and force Romney out of the race. If it was then Huckabee versus McCain, I’d give the edge to McCain, but anything could happen if the campaign dragged on for a couple of months.
Romney has zero chance of winning. He can’t win the South or the Northeast. He has no geographical base of support outside of states with a high Mormon population. He’s also angered so many people with his dishonest campaigning that he has to win an outright majority of the delegates to win the nomination. No one would work with him if it was a brokered convention.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
#29 – Of course, at that point, Mitt will have to decide whether he wants to write another huge check to attempt such a long-shot ploy… personal concerns will come into play. My guess is he’d pack it in, instead.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I’ll be so glad when Romney is finally over, then we wont have to read these crappy posts from Jason, you need to give it a reat man, your candidate is done!! He has ran a dishonorable campaign and no one likes him! I cant wait until you are finally gone.
Jason and Ilfigo countdown clock…..6 days!
January 30th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I think only 2 states post 2/5 are winner take all.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
MWS, to correct you on an earlier thread, Rudy won 1 delegate in NV, in addition to the unpledged one he had in ME.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
David Mitt is still raiing a ton of money. I think he raked in tons of money in FL.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Romnabust on Feb. 5!
SIX DAYS!
January 30th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
#32 EricB
“Then it switched to Romney until the last debate when Romney clearly cheated”
You know that isn’t true…troll
January 30th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
ilfilgo,
Um, hate to break it to you, I am not stopping blogging should Mitt drop out. I have plenty to say.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Jason,
Even if Romney leaves Super Tuesday with 400 delegates, he will still have to win something like 80% of the remaining delegates (you can add Huckabee’s total to McCain’s). What do you think will prompt such a swift and dramatic reversal after finishing a distant second in Super Tuesday? Especially given the Republican Party’s history of rallying around the leader?
January 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
#35 – so at point, McCain could still grab the nomination with a string of second place finishes. It’s done.
Romney needs to fight McCain to a draw next week, or that’s all she wrote.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
sorry, that was for ifigosucks
January 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Metro,
“MWS, to correct you on an earlier thread, Rudy won 1 delegate in NV, in addition to the unpledged one he had in ME.”
Thanks. I didn’t know that. I’ll look for your comments over there.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Yeah, but for romney to get 450 delegates, McCain would be at 550.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
#45 I mean McCain would be at 650, that’s why I said 500 would be better, but with 450 to 650 with 900 still to go, still has a fair enough chance to make it happen.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
The two winner-take-all states after Super Tuesday are Vermont and Virginia. Both of those states have some natural advantages for McCain. That’s 80 more delegates.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
In support of Hewitt’s math.
That was worst case… in that situation… Mitt needs to bow on Wed and commit to John’s candidacy.
It won’t be worst case. If Mitt is within 100 delegates on Wednesday, it’s a fight worth fighting. Something like 600 – 450. I also feel the same way if it’s flipped. If McCain finds himself down by less than 100-150, I expect him to stay in as well. If the gap is more, it’s concession time and put the party back together.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Huckabee supporters see the writing on the wall:
http://huck2008.blogspot.com/2008/01/im-endorsing-mitt-romney.html
January 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
ROFL Jason – we have the same math!
January 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
According to Kristol the Romney tribe has 12 hours to come up with something on Sen. McCain, and Sen. McCain has 12 hours to somehow prevent or circumvent it. The smart money’s on Sen. McCain. The man’s been vetted in national contests before. We probably already know everything there is to know about the man, good, bad, and otherwise.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
i think huck is going to go for broke. how funny would that be if jmac thought he was using huck, but huck was realy using him. awesome
January 30th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
The race will most likely not be decided on Super Tuesday, but The next big Tuesday. March 4th when TX and OH vote. If McCain wins those two plus CA, NY, NJ, IL and FL, how does he not win?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Jason,
Consider this as if it was written especially for you…
“Pollster closest to actual results in GOP contest; Also performed well in recent S.C. Dem race”
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1442
January 30th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
“David Mitt is still raiing a ton of money. I think he raked in tons of money in FL.”
Romney has tapped his lucrative reserves for all they’re worth. I bet an enormous chunk of the money he raised is reserved for the general.. we shall soon see.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
McCain has gained 1000 supporters today. Our very own Kavon being one of them.. you gotta love it.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Jason,
“but with 450 to 650 with 900 still to go, still has a fair enough chance to make it happen.”
Okay, then Romney has to win 741 of those 900. That’s 82%. You don’t think McCain will win 19% of the post Super Tuesday delegates after a strong showing on Super Tuesday? You think Romney will run the table after a distant second place finish? Does the second half of the calendar look THAT much different than the first that McCain only get 17% after gaining all that momentum?
So if Romney can only lose 160 delegates after Super Tuesday, consider the following states and there delegates after Super Tuesday:
Texas 140
New Mexico 32
Kentucky 45
North Carolina 69
Indiana 57
Mississippi 39
Louisiana 20
So EVEN IF Romney won EVERY SINGLE DELEGATE besides these states listed (in places as diverse as Washington, Vermont, Wisconsin, Virginia, etc….) Romney would STILL have to win 60% of the above listed delegates.
Do YOU think Romney can win 60% of the delegates in the states listed above, win EVERY SINGLE delegate not listed above, all after placing a distant second on Super Tuesday?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
56, by “supporters” i mean friends on facebook.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Jason,
With the benefit of hindsight, which predicament would you now prefer for Romney?
A. A distant second behind presumptive nominee John McCain
or
B. Co-frontrunner along with Rudy Giuliani, with McCain out
January 30th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
MWS, it’s not gonna happen unless mitt’s pockets suddenly become as deep as bloomburg.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Kavon,
Drop Rudy from the contenders……………..
It is buggin’
January 30th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
January 30th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
KEATING 5!!
January 30th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Aron,
First of all, It was interesting to hear you on the phone the other day, because I never imagined you with a Southern voice! It’s like the first time I talked to Gamecock, same thing.
Anyway… I am not sure. I really don’t have an opinion I guess. I would have proffered Mitt winning Iowa.
MWS, With Romney at 450 and McCain at 650 McCain still needs around 60% of the delegates. If Huck stays into the end, I don’t think he will. It will be a brokered convention. If McCain gets 750+ he wins. If Romney gets more than McCain I think it’s likely he will win.
After the huge comeback in MI, I wouldn’t be so quick to rule Mitt out. 2 weeks ago, no one thought Mitt had a chance in FL, yet until about 6pm last night it was a coin toss. Really, people need to relax. I know some don’t like Mitt, and he does have an uphill battle, but it’s not unwinnable.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Kavon, Ok. My terrorism days are behind me.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
And besides, when Romney leaves the field the dream will live on!—this was never about a person, this was about a philosophy of government, this was always a fight about what it means to be an American!—oh, wait, I’m laughing too hard to type—Romney was always about Romney, Romney the person. His alleged conservatism was but a means to an end.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Civic,
A McCain supporter is in no place to talk about candidates ego.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
who’s gonna show up to the debate tonight?
mccain
romney
huckabee
paul??
January 30th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Ouch. Good riposte.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Jason,
I can guarantee that if Huck doesn’t win the nomination, he will send his delegates to McCain. One side effect of spending your personal fortune lying about everybody is that you are left friendless. The ONLY chance Romney has is to win Super Tuesday big. He needs to be within 100 delegates of McCain’s and Huckabee’s COMBINED total to have any chance.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Is it confirmed that Rudy will not be at the debate tonight?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
OK… anyways. He can’t just send his delegates. Every state has their own rules.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
MWS you forget that Mitt has raised more than any other Republican (outside his own funds)
I expect he is far from friendless
January 30th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Jeffrey,
I believe Giuliani and McCain are holding a press conference in 20 minutes at the Reagan Library to formally announce Rudy’s endorsement.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Romney’s faced tougher odds than this and overcame mightily to the delight of top managers, board members, and investors alike! He turned around Staples, that really great office supply store that you can usually find next to the giant Walmart or Costco or Sam’s Club or whatever.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
It is pretty bleak for Romney at this point. I am still a faithful Romney supporter, and have not decided who I will vote for in the General Election. At this point, I am resigned to cast a protest vote, as I feel like my party has abandoned me, and made a dramatic move to the left. The GOP has proven these past few years, that it is no longer a viable party. Sad.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Thanks Aron.
I can only imagine the jealousy that Huckabee must be feeling knowing of this impending endorsement. Huckabee sooooo wants to be the guy endorsing McCain with all that fanfare and attention. But, Huckabee knows that he is a much better useful idiot by remaining in the race.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Brendan,
“MWS you forget that Mitt has raised more than any other Republican (outside his own funds)
I expect he is far from friendless”
You’re right. Romney raised like 4x more money in Utah than the rest of the field (both parties) combined. But that all because of………..
……..the Olympics!
Remember, the Romney people rail against identity politics.
Well, except in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Huckabee will likely have more delegates than Romney after Feb 5. Southern sweep!
January 30th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
MWS – and where did Huck get most of his funds?
/yawn
I’m not Mormon. Play that card all you want.
The Mormon’s I know here in AZ aren’t lock step for Mitt.
I know far more non-Mormons that are behind him. Mostly because we’ve had to vote for John a few times already.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
The Mormons voting for Mitt thing is way overstated. I have many friends that are not voting for Mitt, who are also Mormon. One is even voting for Hillary. So there is not this Mormon vote that is completely going for Romney. He has had to earn the vote just like anyone else would. We Mormons are not mindless drones as some of you on this site would have us be.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
I’m a non-Mormon from Utah and I support Mitt because of the Olympics. What he did was nothing short of remarkable…
January 30th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
“MWS – and where did Huck get most of his funds?”
Ah, but it was not the Huckanuts piously intoning against the evils of identity politics.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Can Romney win MA delegates? Or has he alienated his home state too much?
January 30th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Huckabee is going to win huge on Tuesday. He’ll take Missouri, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and maybe more.
Huckabee will come in second in delegates, becoming the anti-McCain.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
What will be critical will be where the Rasmussen National poll comes out after the post-Florida numbers show up. If Mitt is still ahead, or even close, Mitt can win the nomination. He has greater financial resources, and not just his own money, there are plenty of us out here who have contributed to his campaign, and are willing to contribute more…..and I like the match-ups in some of the upcoming states. Once it gets down to a legitimate 2-man race, Mitt can beat McCain anywhere there is a closed primary or caucuses. So, the whole key is for Mitt to survive Super Tuesday, and then comes the momentum shift.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
JayPe,
In the last Massachusetts poll, Romney was up 19 points. The only question is how big Mitt wins it.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
I can see why all the Romney shills in talk radio and on Fox are trying to make this a two man race. Looking at the Super Tuesday states and the delegates, Huck has a very good chance of outperforming Romney. Romney is now sinking in the post Florida polls while Huck has risen a little. The two are practically tied for second nationally. Romney is looking at a VERY bad day on Tuesday. He’ll bow out Wed. or Thurs. and won’t endorse anyone.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
MWS,
So where do you see Romney sinking in post-Florida polls? Where do you see ANY post-Florida polls? I’ll give you a hint: Huckabee will drop more than Romney will. Huckabee is becoming more and more insignificant as the process continues. Romney edged him out amont Evangelicals in Florida, and beat him badly among Evangelicals in Nevada, Michigan, and New Hampshire. I expect that McCain will get a bump, but not that significant a bump, and Mitt will survive Super Tuesday.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
To the Rombots who still think he has a chance:
A request for clarification: is your position that Romney has a chance of winning enough delegates to secure the nomination, or that he will win enough delegates to deny McCain the nomination even if he doesn’t get an outright victory (or even more delegates than McCain)?
January 30th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Jason,
Your posts are getting worse and worse. It is a sign that Mitt Romney is done when the author from MyManMitt has terrible commentary. Come on Jason, you used to be a player now you are just reposting from Hugh Hewitt.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Aw Dave, you beat me to it. I think the math is screwy on the original post too. The states coming up actually are more favorable to Huckabee than Romney, and I will not be at all surprised if Huckabee is in second place come next Wednesday. The problem for Romney is that a bunch of states are winner take all and Huckabee has basically conceded those, and McCain will probably win them. In the South and some Midwest states, Huckabee will outperform Romney. So he loses to both McCain as the frontrunner, and I bet he loses to Huckabee in the race for second place too. Yes, nationally Huckabee is fading, but he is still strong in a bunch of the states next Tuesday. Will his voters jump ship? Probably not if McCain looks a foregone conclusion anyway. And if they did, looks like more would jump to McCain than Romney. Mitt just has bad math any way he jumps next Tuesday. If I were him, I would definitely be considering a concession speech next Wednesday if this holds up. And if he really wants to be spiteful, throw his delegates to Huckabee to maintain a race as we all know that Huckabee will NOT throw his to Romney. Maybe Romney could cut a deal. I know, I am going overboard here. Simply to say, it is as much a McCain-Huckabee race as of today as it is a McCain-Romney one.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
I basically agree with the analysis of the winner take all states in the original post, but I think a more detailed look at how the delegates in the other states are awarded shows it will be tough for Romney to stay close to McCain.
Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
WTA – winner take all
CD – Congressional District
California 173
159 WTA by CD, 11 to state winner. Romney trailing by 9 to McCain in RCP average of pre FL polls. Can he win more than 25-30% of CDs?
Georgia 72
39 WTA by CD, 33 to state winner. Romney trailing McCain and Huckabee and may get no delegates here.
Illinois 70
Delegates directly elected by CD. McCain leading in pre FL poll. Maybe 1/3 to Romney?
Tennessee 55
CD and state delegates proportional to candidates over 20% if no one gets a majority. Romney probably in 3rd here.
Alabama 48
21 CD delegates only to 1st and 2nd place winners. 24 at large allocated proportionally. Romney distant 3rd, probably only 10% of delegates.
Colorado 46
Complicated caucus and convention process that goes through May. Romney probably does very well.
Massachusetts 41
40 delegates proportional to candidates above 15%. Romney probably gets 60-65%.
Minnesota 40
Another caucus and convention process that goes through June. I would guess Romney and McCain split.
Oklahoma 41
15 WTA by CD, 23 to state winner. Romney trailing McCain and Huckabee and may get no delegates here.
West Virginia 30
18 Delegates chosen Feb. 5 in a convention. WTA after runoff.
Alaska 29
Caucus and convention process lasts until March. Romney probably splits with other candidates.
North Dakota 26
Proportional to candidates over 15%. Romney splits delegates.
When I put all this together I think it’s most likely Romney gets 200 to 250 delegates total from these states. Add his other 126 and he’s still below 400 and done.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:17 pm
When it’s by congressional district, I think it generally helps Mitt outside of places Huck is strong, amplifying how many delegates he’d get if it was strictly proportional. Take Cali. I’ve heard McCain’s support there is heavily concentrated in places like San Fran. Mitt’s support is more diffuse across the rest of the state. That means McCain, while still holding an overall vote lead, could win fewer districts by much higher margins, while narrowly losing more districts to Mitt. I would suspect that would hold nationwide, except as noted where Huck messes up the math.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Mitt is the man! He eats economics for
Thanks Mitt fans for your comments and good luck to all the GOP contestants.
breakfast. I noticed that Mitt won the conservative vote 2-1 here in Florida. To me that is a win. Real conservatives know a conservative. Michael Reagan, Rush, Ann are all in Mitt’s corner.