The loser will be down by less than 1% and will call for a recount…in Florida of all places. Sour grapes will ensure that 2nd place plummets in the rest of primary season.
No clue here either. I was pretty darn close in my IA and NH predictions though. I’m going to wait and see what the Zogby and Ras track numbers look like in the morning.
Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Guiliani 15%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Maybe this is too much of a heart thing, but I think Romney will win, and I think McCain’s support will again be shown to be slightly bloated like in Michigan. Also, if it’s close, I don’t think Romney will request a recount, but I think McCain would, helping him lose even more support.
Good luck tomorrow, Mitt!
I thought it was very strange that SurveyUSA was polling multiple times in the same day. But, it’s important to note we’re looking at a difference of .3%. Romney at 31.3% and McCain at 31.6%.
I was actually thinking about that. If it’s close enough to require an automatic recount it only helps McCain. We won’t know the results for a few days and Romney needs the bump a lot more than McCain does for 2/5. What do you think?
Actually, before anyone gets too crazy about the Survey USA poll, they conclude the numbers too close to call because the actual results are 31.9% and 31.3% and they judge it to be statistically insignificant results. So, they are calling it a tie. Here’s the link:
Ok ok. I was just talking in terms of the last tracking poll at Romney +1 and now this one at McCain +1.
Basically what this says is that there hasn’t been any late-breaking shifts. McCain leads in 6 polls on the RCP board. Romney leads in one and one is a tie.
This is about as close to an absolute coin flip as we’ve seen so far. Perhaps McCain has something like a 51-49 advantage. Either way it looks to be really close.
Adam and LJ, that may no longer be true. Romney is now leading the Rasmussen national poll and is rising in polls in most states. It may end up being McCain who needs the bump. I beleive McCain is close to hitting his own glass ceiling, whereas Romney may not. I am biased, but there’s no doubting that Romney’s numbers have risen significantly now that the full effect of Thompson’s departure has hit.
McCain leads 36 to 31 in people who have already voted. That doesn’t bode well for Romney. Hmmmmm…. I’m going to lose my mind before Feb 5. I just know it.
What if Romney WAS ahead in earlier voting before but McCain closed the gap? Perhaps his endosements are paying off. Rasmussen certainly suggested that today with his results showing a 6-point Romney lead yesterday and a dead heat today.
The point is that it is unclear who is actually leading in early voting…the Giuliani campaign still believes they are winning and will win in FLA tomorrow.
I am a McCainiac but I’ll admit I don’t know what’s going to happen. I like that McCain leads in 6 polls on RCP and Romney only leads in 1. But they’re all very close.
“Because it’s too close to call this thread is where the Rombots say Romney will win and the McCainiacs say McCain will win, right?”
haha exactly Matthias
Rudy 28%
Romney 25%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 4%
Thompson 2% (name will still be on ballot)
Rudy will make political history tomorrow thanks to early voting, former New Yorkers, Latin American Community in South FL, and his incredible organization. Sunday alone his Florida organization made 84,000 personal phone calls to Fl residents. All the other campaigns are calling people with recordings. Take it to the bank.
Adam – pretty much in agreement. I just find it amusing that each commenter predicts a win for their own candidate or talks about the “glass ceiling” of the candidate they don’t support. It’s so…. objective.
True, Matthias. I’m guilty of that myself, no doubt. But I find myself becoming more and more isolated from McCain as the race goes on. I hope the GOP race doesn’t become like the Dems. The last thing we need is to disenchant certain legs of the party or coalition. The race / gender issue is one of the GOP’s greatest assets in November. And Mitt and McCain going at it like two of Vick’s pitbulls won’t help. Right now, I feel like I hate McCain.
Mitt Romney 32%
John McCain 32%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ron Paul 4%
Fred /other 3% (still on the ballot and had some absentee votes mailed)
Watch something bizarre happens, and the results look like this:
1. Candidate X: 39%
2. Candidate Y: 30%
I still have difficulty believing that it’s really going to be this close. That said, I really think no one has momentum now. Romney had it until the Crist endorsement. McCain had it until all the broohaha about Fund’s article. So it’s possible that the undecideds will break the way everyone else has.
Oh and I just noticed that I forgot to include Thompson. Subtract 1 from Mitt, Rudy, and McCain and toss those voters Fred’s way.
That’s exactly what I’m getting at. I mean, I’m not a big fan of Romney – but he DOES have (R) after his name. And that’s usually good in my book. I think we all need to focus on that in the primaries.
I am telling you, Intrade isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. I would love to see a study of Intrade’s predicition abilities a week out or a month out. It really doesn’t help when you state Intrade’s 99% correct…the moment before the polls close. Just silly. With that reasoning all start using Intrade the moment before the the polls close.
I honestly don’t think it will be that close (meaning I think someone will win by at least 3%- so close, just not THAT close). It just seems like with nearly every “close” contest so far, it’s been obviously in someone’s favor (MI, NH, SC were all supposed to be “close”- Mitt by 9, McCain by 6, McCain by 3- I don’t consider that all too close). I hope that Romney wins and Rudy gets second, but I know that’s not likely. So what does anyone think of Marsha Blackburn as VP? She would be SOOOOO great- counteract the Hillary crap and put a great conservative in place for 2016. Romney/Blackburn would be my absolute favorite combo. Off topic, I know. Okay, here’s my prediction:
Romney 32
McCain 29
Giuliani 20
Huck 16
Paul 3
despite my prediction. I think that mccain will win by 3 points or more, or romney will edge mccain. I am betting on mccain beating romney by three points or more though which means that I am not going to be able to sleep tonight.
how somebody could pick skeletor over romney is beyond me. i mean seriously, mccain said he woud like interest rates to be zero! for any of you who know anythign about economic, you understand how bad that would be for the economy. seriously, this guy is a moron. bottom of his class type of moron.
Most polls show the economy is the number 1 issue, and immigration is 2nd. Romney leads in both categories.
Most show Romney leading huge among conservatives who’s primary this is. Moderates are like independants and may not vote anyway.
Romney does surprisingly well in the southern part where Cubans are many, and does well everywell else. He isnt relying on 1 area to carry him.
Lastly, I think you see many on this site are like voters in Florida, with McCain, you either like him or hate him. Sure some, like Metro and TLG, dislike Romneys percieved phoniness, but Rudy and Huck people usually gravitate to Romney’s conservatism. Those who abandon Huck and Rudy tomorrow might go to Romney by a 55-45% margin.
A recount in a Florida primary required if the count is closer than 0.5%? Wow, that is just too interesting to contemplate with this match shaping up to be as close as it seems to be. If that happens, it would surely add a lot of pazzaz to this campaign.
It’s never happened in a prominent campaign, due to its extreme improbability, at least to my knowledge. I do vaguely remember reading that in the occasional local election (where there are very few ballots cast overall), there will be ties even after recounts. Each state would have different laws, but the general consensus, I speculate, is to flip a coin. (One western state, in fact, actually has a poker-hand resolution: deal five cards to each candidate, best hand wins…)
I won’t make a prediction because, frankly, I’m never even close. But I will suggest that Rudy does much better than most expect. Where he falls out in the ranking is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’y write him out just yet.
Romney by 3. Real Republicans will come out in full force to beat McCain. Rudy is out by Thursday, endorses McCain, and Romney v. McCain head to Super Tuesday. Conservatives line up behind Romney, giving him the edge.
McCain – 31%
Romney – 29%
Giuliani – 19%
Huckabee – 15%
Paul – 5%
Fred et al – 1%
I hope Mitt wins, but by I have found through experience that most people are very stupid, and even when there is a very good thing staring them smack in the face (Romney), they will do the very stupid thing (McCain). I am just playing the odds that people will continue to be stupid. Unfortunately.
I’m giving this to Mitt because my gut feel is that his supporters are going to be more motivated, and will come out rather than make a last minute decision to just stay home. I’ll just pray to God that the right man will win tomorrow night, whomever that will be, but I believe its Mitt Romney. God bless America
#102 I saw it and thought it was hilarious. It was so obvious that he was just trying to gang up on Romney. He had nothing to say about his own candidate but went on and on about Romney buying the election and said Romney is not electable. Luckily, Hannity disagreed with him on both counts and pointed out that there have been many people who used their own money, but they did not have what it takes get votes. The funny thing was Alan ganging up on Romney with Chuck. I have been watching Alan carefully lately and I really think he is scared of Romney. He has said that he wants Romney as the Republican nominee. If he really did, he would be building him up. It was funny.
Giuliani will probably win the absentess, and if its by as big of a margin as his internal campsing scuttlebutt suggests, then Rudy starts with 15-20% of the total vote just from absentee ballots. Romney and McCain carry in momentum and will do very well at the actual ballot boxes. The question is whether Rudy’s GOTV effort can get enough people to the polls to pad that head start and hold off hard charges from Mac and Mitt.
Giuliani 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 25%
I’m clustering them all together because I really do think it will be that close…and I can still claim to have been within 5% even if the order gets totally switched up. I’m going to go against the grain and stick with my gut impulse, Rudy by a hair.
I posted a tie at the beginning but I really think that this is McCain to lose. What kind of idiots are the voters? You know when I was walking inton work this morning, I was thinking about a McCain presidency, all I see is poor economic policy and more war. I am starting to think That I would rather see a Barack presidency than a McCain Presidency, but McCain still has it over Hillary. I do like McCain more than most other GOP erss, but when I try to look objectively at what kind of President he would be and what kind of administration he would run, I am not optimistic in the least.
McCain hired Juan Hernandez, the leading proponent of amnesty for illegal Mexicans living here in the U.S.
On “Meet The Press” on Sunday McCain dodged the question from Tim Russert about whether or not, as president, he would sign his own McCain-Kennedy Immigration bill (which is, in fact, virtual amnesty for illegals). (He will give amnesty when in the Oval Office — especially with a Democratic Congress.)
On Sunday in Florida, McCain promised there would be “more wars.†What a way to campaign! What a promise from a potential president! How about pledging to try to prevent more wars?
He has already said that if it were up to him we’d stay in Iraq for “10,000 years.â€
He is a bad guy who, for a number of reasons, has the media eating out of his hand.
He has a terrible anger problem. (See Ted Sampley’s excellent article at the US Veteran Dispatch.)
He wants to bomb all over the Middle East.
Don’t be fooled by polls in January predicting what may or may not happen in November. The general election is a long, long way off. Campaigns are run to change polls. Someone may look electable today but not be so in six months. Remember President Giuliani? The Democrats will have a field day with McCain: He’s a third term of Bush; he’s too old; he’s a mad bomber; he is unstable.
The Republican Party is about to compound the mistake they made in begging G.W. Bush back in 1999 to run for president. He has been a total disaster for the country.
#118 – bjalder – that is the exact terminology I use with my 5 yr old son when we play any games. I figured I might as well teach him now that there are only winners and losers and life and second place is nothing more than the first loser. I laugh every time he wins a game against my wife and says “Mommy, you’re the first loser;” she hates it so that makes it even funnier.
I’ve also told him that “old” people shouldn’t drive but that one doesn’t go over quite as well with the great-grandparents.
My prediction (and I am saying this because I have been resigned and nervous and chicken-shitty in my previous predictions)
January 28th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
1. Romney 34%
2. McCain 34%
3. Rudy 15%
4. Huckabee 13%
January 28th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Romney – 80
Huckabee – 5
Paul – 5
Giuliani – 5
McCain – 5
January 28th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
no clue, but my prediction is that rudy drops out, and huckabee stays in. but i wish is was the other way around.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
The loser will be down by less than 1% and will call for a recount…in Florida of all places. Sour grapes will ensure that 2nd place plummets in the rest of primary season.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Romney 36%
McCain 32%
That’s all that matters.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
No clue here either. I was pretty darn close in my IA and NH predictions though. I’m going to wait and see what the Zogby and Ras track numbers look like in the morning.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Dems don’t get delegates and aren’t campaigning there so its not a real contest.
I have no feel for how the GOP will go except Crist’s endorsement is worth a point at least.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
OH SNAP NEW SURVEY USA SHOWS MCCAIN UP 1. CHECK RCP!!!
January 28th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Guiliani 15%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Maybe this is too much of a heart thing, but I think Romney will win, and I think McCain’s support will again be shown to be slightly bloated like in Michigan. Also, if it’s close, I don’t think Romney will request a recount, but I think McCain would, helping him lose even more support.
Good luck tomorrow, Mitt!
January 28th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
McCain leads now by 0.8 in the RCP average.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Romney- 34%
McCain – 32%
Giuliani – 14%
Huckabee – 12%
Paul – 4%
Thompson – 4%
Hillary – 50%
Obama – 35%
Edwards – 15%
January 28th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
BarkTwiggs,
Well, any election result that’s within 0.5% of the vote triggers an automatic recount in Florida.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
McCain: 33%
Romney: 30%
Rudy: 16%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 6%
Hillary: 52%
Obama: 35%
Edwards: 13%
January 28th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
SurveyUSA shows a two point swing toward McCain in less than a day…
January 28th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Adam,
I thought it was very strange that SurveyUSA was polling multiple times in the same day. But, it’s important to note we’re looking at a difference of .3%. Romney at 31.3% and McCain at 31.6%.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
LJ,
I was actually thinking about that. If it’s close enough to require an automatic recount it only helps McCain. We won’t know the results for a few days and Romney needs the bump a lot more than McCain does for 2/5. What do you think?
January 28th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Actually, before anyone gets too crazy about the Survey USA poll, they conclude the numbers too close to call because the actual results are 31.9% and 31.3% and they judge it to be statistically insignificant results. So, they are calling it a tie. Here’s the link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bba017dd-78f0-480d-84a4-7a104f37bc6a
January 28th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Adam,
It’s not a 2 point swing. Romney went down .4%, McCain went up .3%. That’s a swing of .7%.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Romney 35
McCain 32
Guiliani 14
Huckabee 12
Paul 5
January 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
McCain – 34%
Romney – 27%
Giuliani – 19%
Huckabee – 12%
Paul -8%
Or maybe not… I have no idea.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Romney will get it by at least 4%.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
The most interesting part of the poll, however, is this
Conservative Voters:
Romney 37%
McCain 25%
I’m no longer calling it with my heart only. Romney will win this tomorrow.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Or rather, Romney went down .7%. So a 1 point swing.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Romney wins by 2%, Rudy drops out before CA debate. Huck pledges his heart and soul to McCain and stays in the race
January 28th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
mitt – 34.7
gandalf – 34.3
rudy – 16
huck – 11
ron paul – 4
January 28th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Romney 40
McCain 27
Paul 13
Uckabee 7
Guiliani the rest
January 28th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Matt,
Ok ok. I was just talking in terms of the last tracking poll at Romney +1 and now this one at McCain +1.
Basically what this says is that there hasn’t been any late-breaking shifts. McCain leads in 6 polls on the RCP board. Romney leads in one and one is a tie.
This is about as close to an absolute coin flip as we’ve seen so far. Perhaps McCain has something like a 51-49 advantage. Either way it looks to be really close.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Adam and LJ, that may no longer be true. Romney is now leading the Rasmussen national poll and is rising in polls in most states. It may end up being McCain who needs the bump. I beleive McCain is close to hitting his own glass ceiling, whereas Romney may not. I am biased, but there’s no doubting that Romney’s numbers have risen significantly now that the full effect of Thompson’s departure has hit.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Public Policy has never called a race wrong and they have Romney up!
January 28th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Romney 55%
Hillary 45%
OR
Hillary 45%
McCain 33%
Bloomberg 22%
Choose wisely Florida…
January 28th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Ohio,
With respect, anyone who looks only at Rasmussen for national polling is biased. Rasmussen screens include too many conservatives.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
McCain leads 36 to 31 in people who have already voted. That doesn’t bode well for Romney. Hmmmmm…. I’m going to lose my mind before Feb 5. I just know it.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
That is only from one polling group, another had Romney leading in early voting
January 28th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Because it’s too close to call this thread is where the Rombots say Romney will win and the McCainiacs say McCain will win, right?
McCain 35%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 16%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 8%
January 28th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Ilfigo,
That’s mildly reassuring.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
How do the 2% undecideds swing?
January 28th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
ilfigo,
What if Romney WAS ahead in earlier voting before but McCain closed the gap? Perhaps his endosements are paying off. Rasmussen certainly suggested that today with his results showing a 6-point Romney lead yesterday and a dead heat today.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
The point is that it is unclear who is actually leading in early voting…the Giuliani campaign still believes they are winning and will win in FLA tomorrow.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Matthias,
I am a McCainiac but I’ll admit I don’t know what’s going to happen. I like that McCain leads in 6 polls on RCP and Romney only leads in 1. But they’re all very close.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
The echos off of the tin foil lining of my propeller beanie say Ron Paul will win tomorrow.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
“Because it’s too close to call this thread is where the Rombots say Romney will win and the McCainiacs say McCain will win, right?”
haha exactly Matthias
January 28th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Romney 36%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%
January 28th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Rudy 28%
Romney 25%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 4%
Thompson 2% (name will still be on ballot)
Rudy will make political history tomorrow thanks to early voting, former New Yorkers, Latin American Community in South FL, and his incredible organization. Sunday alone his Florida organization made 84,000 personal phone calls to Fl residents. All the other campaigns are calling people with recordings. Take it to the bank.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
True…some would argue that Rasmussen isn’t good at all, only when their candidate is winning.
But Adam…I think it is too close. I think Romney had the obvious momentum and the endorsements stopped that.
However, who knows how the “attacks” between the two will affect the voters? Does Mitt or JMAC lose some oters, do they go to Rudy? etc.
It will be a fun long night…but I might be celebrating around 8:21 EST with my BIG RED MITT!
January 28th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Adam – pretty much in agreement. I just find it amusing that each commenter predicts a win for their own candidate or talks about the “glass ceiling” of the candidate they don’t support. It’s so…. objective.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
True, Matthias. I’m guilty of that myself, no doubt. But I find myself becoming more and more isolated from McCain as the race goes on. I hope the GOP race doesn’t become like the Dems. The last thing we need is to disenchant certain legs of the party or coalition. The race / gender issue is one of the GOP’s greatest assets in November. And Mitt and McCain going at it like two of Vick’s pitbulls won’t help. Right now, I feel like I hate McCain.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
What about Fred? Is he still on the ballot? Will votes for him be counted?
January 28th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
McCain 34, Romney 32. The older cuban community do to many still use spinish is always underpoll and they going big for McCain I hear.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Mitt Romney 32%
John McCain 32%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Ron Paul 4%
Fred /other 3% (still on the ballot and had some absentee votes mailed)
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Watch something bizarre happens, and the results look like this:
1. Candidate X: 39%
2. Candidate Y: 30%
I still have difficulty believing that it’s really going to be this close. That said, I really think no one has momentum now. Romney had it until the Crist endorsement. McCain had it until all the broohaha about Fund’s article. So it’s possible that the undecideds will break the way everyone else has.
Oh and I just noticed that I forgot to include Thompson. Subtract 1 from Mitt, Rudy, and McCain and toss those voters Fred’s way.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Votes for Fred will be wasted…
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Romney wins the recount
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
#43 That would be a classic.
Rudy pulls a Hillary in FL.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Romney 35%
McCain 33%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 3%
Other 3%
Hillary 50%
Obama 38%
Edwards 11%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Fred is still on the ballot and had some absentees already sent in.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
#46
That’s exactly what I’m getting at. I mean, I’m not a big fan of Romney – but he DOES have (R) after his name. And that’s usually good in my book. I think we all need to focus on that in the primaries.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Matthew,
What are you giving Romney odds as winner, 50% than?
January 28th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Rudy surprises…just not enough
Romney 30%
McCain 28%
Giuliani 24%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 3%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
FWIW Intrade has been switching leads back and forth. McCain is now up something like 52-47.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Mitt Romney 34%
Skeletor 31%
Rudy 17%
Pastor Mike 12%
Crazy Ron 4%
Fred 2%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
60, Skeletor, LOL
January 28th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Mitt the Man – 38%
JMac – 34%
Rudy – 11%
Paul – 9%
Huck-a-who – 8%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I am telling you, Intrade isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. I would love to see a study of Intrade’s predicition abilities a week out or a month out. It really doesn’t help when you state Intrade’s 99% correct…the moment before the polls close. Just silly. With that reasoning all start using Intrade the moment before the the polls close.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Funny article on McCain
http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/news/presidential_briefing/?p=161
January 28th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I honestly don’t think it will be that close (meaning I think someone will win by at least 3%- so close, just not THAT close). It just seems like with nearly every “close” contest so far, it’s been obviously in someone’s favor (MI, NH, SC were all supposed to be “close”- Mitt by 9, McCain by 6, McCain by 3- I don’t consider that all too close). I hope that Romney wins and Rudy gets second, but I know that’s not likely. So what does anyone think of Marsha Blackburn as VP? She would be SOOOOO great- counteract the Hillary crap and put a great conservative in place for 2016. Romney/Blackburn would be my absolute favorite combo. Off topic, I know. Okay, here’s my prediction:
Romney 32
McCain 29
Giuliani 20
Huck 16
Paul 3
January 28th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
eljefe,
Well, McCain was in the Navy, so I guess he talks like a sailor
January 28th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
I’m with Jack. Rudy surprises, but still comes in 3rd.
I agree with him, except I’d reverse McCain and Romney.
McCain 30
Romney 28
Giuliani 24
Huckabee 15
Paul 3
January 28th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
John, I would be throwing around the term “Skeletor” in a primary that includes Rudy.
He may as well pick up a cape and start sucking the blood with the rest of the undead. He’s a vampire candidate at this point.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Rudy pulls a Hillary in NH
Gains huge momentum as a genius that everyone underestimated. Wins Big Feb 5.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Johnny Mac 33%
Rudy G. 27%
Precious Mitt 25%
the Huckster 15%
Paul 7%
Fred 2%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Romney 31.5
McCain 30.5
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 15
Paul 4
January 28th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Not feeling bullish on Romney’s chances at the moment, so I’m going to go with:
McCain – 35%
Romney – 33%
Giuliani – 17%
Huckabee – 10%
Paul – 4%
Other – 1%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:32 pm
#2 eljefe – LOL-
Although you forgot Fred. Does that mean everyone else now receives 4% instead?
January 28th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Romney: 34%
McCain: 30%
Rudy: 18%
Huck: 13%
Paul: 3%
Fred: 2%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Mitt – 37
John – 36
Rudy – 13
Huck – 10
Paul – 3
Other – 1
That’s tentative until tomorrow morning.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
hmm…
Romney 35%
McCain 31%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%
Thompson 1%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
mccain 33
romney 31
rudy 16
huckabee 12
pual 5
thompson 3
i hope i am wrong!! maybe romney’s gotv can make the difference. Go Romney!!
January 28th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
What happens when the top two candidates get exactly the same number of votes even after recount?
Has this ever occurred in an election?
What are the election rules governing this phenomenon? Flip a coin?
January 28th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Romney: 39
Giuliani: 21
McCain: 20
Paul: 11
Hukabee: 9
January 28th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
despite my prediction. I think that mccain will win by 3 points or more, or romney will edge mccain. I am betting on mccain beating romney by three points or more though which means that I am not going to be able to sleep tonight.
how somebody could pick skeletor over romney is beyond me. i mean seriously, mccain said he woud like interest rates to be zero! for any of you who know anythign about economic, you understand how bad that would be for the economy. seriously, this guy is a moron. bottom of his class type of moron.
yes, he’s got courage, but he’s dumb as bricks.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Colin,
They Rochambeau for it in the case of a tie. Look it up!
January 28th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
John Galt
I hope you are wrong, but I agree with your assessment of skeletor.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Mitt 33%
McCain 32%
Rudy 13%- and drops out.
everyone else doesnt really matter….
January 28th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
McCain 32%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 17%
Guiliani: 16%
Paul: 8%
January 28th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Bonham, several times I’ve posted a study about Intrade’s accuracy the night before AND 30,60,90 days before. You know this.
However, it’s accuracy for 2-man, single-contest elections isn’t going to translate into multi-candidate, multi-contest elections.
It is still more accurate than the polls are, even for those.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
#81. LOL
January 28th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
http://www.midasoracle.org/best/
Check the Zitzewitz/Wolfers paper, figure 1. 97% accurate 90 days out.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
A few things to consider.
Most polls show the economy is the number 1 issue, and immigration is 2nd. Romney leads in both categories.
Most show Romney leading huge among conservatives who’s primary this is. Moderates are like independants and may not vote anyway.
Romney does surprisingly well in the southern part where Cubans are many, and does well everywell else. He isnt relying on 1 area to carry him.
Lastly, I think you see many on this site are like voters in Florida, with McCain, you either like him or hate him. Sure some, like Metro and TLG, dislike Romneys percieved phoniness, but Rudy and Huck people usually gravitate to Romney’s conservatism. Those who abandon Huck and Rudy tomorrow might go to Romney by a 55-45% margin.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Please enlighten us Metro. Who wins?
January 28th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
joe c. has the funniest posts on here.
I love his calling McCain “Gandalf”!
January 28th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Are polls accounting for some early voters getting a call from a pollster, thinking “I’m done with this election,” and hanging up?
January 28th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
MITT!!! 39
Sheriff 30
Rudy 12
Hick 9
Dr. No 7
January 28th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
80,
The guy you say is “dumb as bricks” has an IQ of 133.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
A recount in a Florida primary required if the count is closer than 0.5%? Wow, that is just too interesting to contemplate with this match shaping up to be as close as it seems to be. If that happens, it would surely add a lot of pazzaz to this campaign.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
Mitt 33%
McCain 32%
Rudy 16%
Huckster 14%
Other 5%
It’s going to be close…but a blow out would feel so nice (in the mitt direction).
January 28th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Romney 34%
McCain 30%
Rudy 20%
Huckabee 13%
Ron-10%
This is a closed primary and so it goes to Romney. McCain has gone too negative this past week, as well.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
#93,
how do you know that? and if so, it was probably 40 years ago…senility has a way of changing that over the years.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
97,
Do a Google search.
And John McCain is not senile.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
On the question of exact ties- #78/#81-
It’s never happened in a prominent campaign, due to its extreme improbability, at least to my knowledge. I do vaguely remember reading that in the occasional local election (where there are very few ballots cast overall), there will be ties even after recounts. Each state would have different laws, but the general consensus, I speculate, is to flip a coin. (One western state, in fact, actually has a poker-hand resolution: deal five cards to each candidate, best hand wins…)
January 28th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
I won’t make a prediction because, frankly, I’m never even close. But I will suggest that Rudy does much better than most expect. Where he falls out in the ranking is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’y write him out just yet.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Romney by 3. Real Republicans will come out in full force to beat McCain. Rudy is out by Thursday, endorses McCain, and Romney v. McCain head to Super Tuesday. Conservatives line up behind Romney, giving him the edge.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Anyone see Chuck Norris gain up on Romney on Hannity and Colmes? He wouldn’t even talk about his own candidate. yuck
January 28th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
#101 – Nathan – Where can I get one of those crystal balls you are using? I like what you see.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:01 am
Romney..35
John..30
Rudy..18
Mike..12
other..5
January 29th, 2008 at 12:08 am
McCain – 31%
Romney – 29%
Giuliani – 19%
Huckabee – 15%
Paul – 5%
Fred et al – 1%
I hope Mitt wins, but by I have found through experience that most people are very stupid, and even when there is a very good thing staring them smack in the face (Romney), they will do the very stupid thing (McCain). I am just playing the odds that people will continue to be stupid. Unfortunately.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:09 am
#102 – I saw that and had to mute it because all I heard was yelling back and forth. What a joke
January 29th, 2008 at 12:09 am
Rudy is out by Thursday, endorses McCain.
What’s Rudy’s motive?
January 29th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Romney 34
McCain 32
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 10
Paul 4
Thompson 1
I’m giving this to Mitt because my gut feel is that his supporters are going to be more motivated, and will come out rather than make a last minute decision to just stay home. I’ll just pray to God that the right man will win tomorrow night, whomever that will be, but I believe its Mitt Romney. God bless America
January 29th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Fred – 5%
etc.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:16 am
#107 McCain promised Rudy his wife, Cindy…
January 29th, 2008 at 12:28 am
Romney 35%
McCain 28%
Giuliani 24%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 3%
Also Rudy will stay in unless he thinks he could lose NY.
Huckabee will accept McCains proposal of marrage.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:33 am
McCain 34
Romney 31
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 11
Paul 4
Thompson 1
January 29th, 2008 at 12:36 am
110 – wrong, but very funny.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Update:
McCain leaves Huckabee at the alter and elopes with Crist
January 29th, 2008 at 12:57 am
#102 I saw it and thought it was hilarious. It was so obvious that he was just trying to gang up on Romney. He had nothing to say about his own candidate but went on and on about Romney buying the election and said Romney is not electable. Luckily, Hannity disagreed with him on both counts and pointed out that there have been many people who used their own money, but they did not have what it takes get votes. The funny thing was Alan ganging up on Romney with Chuck. I have been watching Alan carefully lately and I really think he is scared of Romney. He has said that he wants Romney as the Republican nominee. If he really did, he would be building him up. It was funny.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:58 am
High IQ often accompanies Emotional Impairments, I administer IQ tests and service the emotionally Impaired ( the Crazies ) . . . Just saying
January 29th, 2008 at 1:02 am
You guys are too funny, thanks for the comedy among all this tension.
January 29th, 2008 at 1:52 am
Romney – #1
McCain – 1st loser
Guiliani – 2nd loser
Huckabee – Just one big loser
January 29th, 2008 at 2:31 am
Giuliani will probably win the absentess, and if its by as big of a margin as his internal campsing scuttlebutt suggests, then Rudy starts with 15-20% of the total vote just from absentee ballots. Romney and McCain carry in momentum and will do very well at the actual ballot boxes. The question is whether Rudy’s GOTV effort can get enough people to the polls to pad that head start and hold off hard charges from Mac and Mitt.
Giuliani 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 25%
I’m clustering them all together because I really do think it will be that close…and I can still claim to have been within 5% even if the order gets totally switched up. I’m going to go against the grain and stick with my gut impulse, Rudy by a hair.
January 29th, 2008 at 2:48 am
Romney 36%
McCain 35%
Rudy 15%
Huck 10%
Paul 4%
Hold on to your hats!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 am
My imperfect two cents:
Mitt 29%
John 28%
Rudy 25%
Mike 11%
Ron 4%
January 29th, 2008 at 6:53 am
I posted a tie at the beginning but I really think that this is McCain to lose. What kind of idiots are the voters? You know when I was walking inton work this morning, I was thinking about a McCain presidency, all I see is poor economic policy and more war. I am starting to think That I would rather see a Barack presidency than a McCain Presidency, but McCain still has it over Hillary. I do like McCain more than most other GOP erss, but when I try to look objectively at what kind of President he would be and what kind of administration he would run, I am not optimistic in the least.
January 29th, 2008 at 7:15 am
McCain hired Juan Hernandez, the leading proponent of amnesty for illegal Mexicans living here in the U.S.
On “Meet The Press” on Sunday McCain dodged the question from Tim Russert about whether or not, as president, he would sign his own McCain-Kennedy Immigration bill (which is, in fact, virtual amnesty for illegals). (He will give amnesty when in the Oval Office — especially with a Democratic Congress.)
On Sunday in Florida, McCain promised there would be “more wars.†What a way to campaign! What a promise from a potential president! How about pledging to try to prevent more wars?
He has already said that if it were up to him we’d stay in Iraq for “10,000 years.â€
He is a bad guy who, for a number of reasons, has the media eating out of his hand.
He has a terrible anger problem. (See Ted Sampley’s excellent article at the US Veteran Dispatch.)
He wants to bomb all over the Middle East.
Don’t be fooled by polls in January predicting what may or may not happen in November. The general election is a long, long way off. Campaigns are run to change polls. Someone may look electable today but not be so in six months. Remember President Giuliani? The Democrats will have a field day with McCain: He’s a third term of Bush; he’s too old; he’s a mad bomber; he is unstable.
The Republican Party is about to compound the mistake they made in begging G.W. Bush back in 1999 to run for president. He has been a total disaster for the country.
McCain will be even worse.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:16 am
My prediction:
Rudy stages a massive rally declaring victory in FL at 8:00 p.m. ET.
It’ll be such a great, convincing ploy that everyone else makes tearful concession speeches.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Romney 39
McCain 33
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 10
Paul 5
January 29th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Romney – 32.5%
McCain – 32%
Giuliani – 14%
Paul – 10%
Huck – 10%
Other – the rest
January 29th, 2008 at 9:11 am
#118 – bjalder – that is the exact terminology I use with my 5 yr old son when we play any games. I figured I might as well teach him now that there are only winners and losers and life and second place is nothing more than the first loser. I laugh every time he wins a game against my wife and says “Mommy, you’re the first loser;” she hates it so that makes it even funnier.
I’ve also told him that “old” people shouldn’t drive but that one doesn’t go over quite as well with the great-grandparents.
My prediction (and I am saying this because I have been resigned and nervous and chicken-shitty in my previous predictions)
Romney by 6%
January 29th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Romney – 36%
McCain – 31%
Giuliani – 15%
Huck – 14%
Paul – 4%