It’s been quite a while since Senator McCain has pulled in this much money in a single day fundraiser. He has at least 3 more high profile fundraisers planned between now and Tuesday in Florida. He is currently on pace to outspend Rudy Giuliani on ads in the Sunshine State.
Armed with a contingent of high profile veterans and former prisoners of war, Sen. John McCain hammered home his core message of keeping the nation safe from terrorism as he wooed voters in this heavily military region of the state before flying to New York to pick up cash and a key endorsement.
“As president, I’d like to serve this nation a little while longer and I’m asking for your support,” McCain said at one of his largest events of the campaign at the Fort Walton Beach Convention Center. “And here, all across North Florida, is where I will be depending upon our veterans. I will be depending upon our servicemen and women.”
Congressional medal of honor recipient Bud Day, McCain’s roommate in prison, accompanied McCain, offering a quiet but powerful endorsement. He and a group of prominent veterans are also campaigning separately for McCain this week in Panama City, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville, among other areas where the military is predominant.
McCain raced up to New York in the afternoon for a fund-raiser that brought in more than $1 million, said Charles Black, his senior adviser.
And, in what could be construed as a slight to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato, a powerhouse in New York politics, gave McCain a ringing endorsement.
“This is a man whose time is here, who will restore confidence and people will have confidence in what he says not only here in America, but in the world,” D’Amato said. “He will be in my opinion, the strongest Republican candidate _ and for those of you who say, well, I disagree with him on one issue or another – if you want to win in November, John McCain – he’s the man.”
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:35 am
McCain’s going to need to keep doing a lot more of these if he even plans on keeping his head above water. Florida is pricey, and McCain’s got loan baggage.
I still await the fundraising report with baited breath. $5 million is the magic number!
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:37 am
Here comes the Establishment! Rallying around McCain, just as many of us predicted.
In 2000, Bush won the GOP nomination by uniting establishment Republicans with culturally conservative red-staters in order to create an impenetrable bloc of support. It looks like this year, McCain is forming the same sort of majority by uniting the establishment Republicans with culturally secular blue-staters. If McCain wins Florida, and then goes onto win the NE bloc of NY/NJ/CT/DE on Feb 5th, along with about 40 percent of California and Illinois, and a third or so of all the other states that are decided proportionally, he’ll be so far ahead in the delegate count that there really won’t by any point in anyone else going on.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:39 am
“for those of you who say, well, I disagree with him on one issue or another – if you want to win in November”
Right out of the Guiliani playbook.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:40 am
Yes! It’s happening! Finally!
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:42 am
DaveG,
If $1 million in a day is the Establishment rallying around McCain, what would you call Romney’s $5 million single-day haul a week ago?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:43 am
LJ-
This has been a rough day for us – Fred dropping out (and not endorsing McCain, even worse), plus Huck bailing out of Florida. This is the best news from all day. Great find. He doesn’t necessarily need to keep pace w/ Mitt in $$$ (he couldn’t, even if it WERE necessary). He just needs enough to stay on TV in the expensive markets.
DaveG – your analysis – right on the mark, as usual. The key being the huge “If” – “if” he wins Florida. Huck’s voters have to stay with him, and at least some of Fred’s supporters have to be won over, in a closed primary…
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:43 am
D’mato is still bitter from his inability to control Rudy throughout the 90′s. This has nothing to do with policy but rather D’mato trying to control local politics over people who will never get out of NYC politics. Just ask George Pataki.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
Why is D’Matat not a senator?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
McCain’s only tangible advantage is the media’s love for him.
“One clue that Romney is our strongest candidate is the fact that Democrats keep viciously attacking him while expressing their deep respect for Mike Huckabee and John McCain.
This point was already extensively covered in Chapter 1 of How to Talk to a Liberal (If You Must): Never take advice from your political enemies.”
-Ann Coulter
Glen Beck agrees.
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/4696/
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
D’mato…
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
#5-
I’ll provide my own answer to that question-
an opportunity for a candidate worth hundreds of millions of dollars, to demonstrate that he can still attract money from donors. He never seemed interested in having those hauls when he had the big leads in Iowa or New Hampshire.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:45 am
#8 – Mikey B-
He was soundly defeated by Chuck Schumer in 1998.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 am
#11 – That made no sense.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:48 am
How can true Republicans cast a vote for a RINO like McCain. True Conservatives can’t stand the guy.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:48 am
#6 I’m not sure of the exact costs, but I think 1 Million is a drop in the bucket in a huge market like Florida. Any lead that McCain may have had is going to be lost when the majority of Fred Thompson’s supporters back Mitt. The post-Thompson polls are going to be really tight, or have Mitt leading. Plus, sadly for McCain, Romney seems to have the momentium.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:50 am
Newt Gingrich on Hannity and Colmes just said that Fred supporters would likely get behind Romney. Makes sense to me.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:50 am
Is this all for Primary funds?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:51 am
I’d love to see McCain make a statement like, “We’re going to win the conservative vote in ____________.”
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:52 am
Bjalder26,
In Maricpoa county, wait no…
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:54 am
#13 – Jared-
The $5 million in one day took place in Boston, the day after Mitt was defeated in NH. It was a sign to his donors, supporters, and endorsers that Mitt was not going to drop out of the race as a result of losing both Iowa and NH and the looming possibility that he might lose Michigan, too. (Especially when word came that he had pulled down the ads in SC and FL.)
#15 bjalder26′s analysis – I agree w/ some of your analysis. Although I wouldn’t go quite as far to say that $1M is a drop in the bucket (it’s more than a drop). Remember, this is a campaign that nearly imploded in July due to finance issues.
It’s hard to see how Mitt’s the one w/ the momentum, given that he was the one w/ the fourth-place finish in SC and the win in Nevada. (At best, it’s tied in momentum.)
I am in fact very concerned that a lot of Fred’s people are going to Mitt, particularly in a closed primary. It’s one of the reasons why I wish he hadn’t dropped out, why I’m disappointed that Huck isn’t doing well enough to pull them toward him, and why I think there’s an unpleasantly high chance that Mitt might win next week.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:54 am
#18
Based on that CA poll by surveyusa(not worth anything at all) but you have your answer for MCcain-
“we’re going to win the conservative vote in San Francisco”
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:55 am
I want to see another Ras Florida Poll…….
Those are like Candy-Drugs………..
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:56 am
ENHQ #20,
You usually put forward thoughtful points. But if I can summarize this one…
McCain raising $1 million in a day is a sign that the establishment is lining up behind him. But Romney raising five times that is just a sign that he’s not dropping out?
O_o
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:56 am
#17 Jason-
Is what (Mitt or McCain or both) all for Primary funds? If the question is whether what either is raising for the primary or the general, that I don’t know. McCain’s fundraising probably can’t afford to waste his time raising money for the general, so I speculate that today was probably, if not exclusively, for primary money.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:57 am
With all due respect to Abe, I think the narrative of the race isn’t about “Huckabust†and the like. I think it’s been more like this:
Mitt Romney – A New Hope
John McCain – The Establishment Strikes Back
Mitt Romney – Return of the Conservative
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:59 am
EQNH,
don’t have time? How much time does it take to process a credit ard again for money?
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:00 am
“I wouldn’t go quite as far to say that $1M is a drop in the bucket (it’s more than a drop).”
Hey, you can’t blame me for using verbage that’s positive for my “side”.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 am
Technically it’d be Return of The Conservative
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 am
#23 Murphy-
Thanks for the compliment. I shouldn’t have answered your question to DaveG, because you asked HIM the question!)
I acknowledge that I just took a swipe at Mitt, that I should not have done. I’ll offer the excuse that it’s late!
Back to more dispassionate analysis. DaveG was the one who said that “the establishment is lining up behind him.” (Which further underscores the point that I shouldn’t have answered your question in the first place.)
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:02 am
How much of McCains 1 mil is for primary? I bet some is general only right? 3.5 of Mitt’s 5 was for general only.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 am
#24 – I believe Romney’s $5 million was $3.5 million for the General Election, and $1.5 million for primary races. No matter how you try and spin it, Romney still outraised McCain over a 1 day period. Whether is was primary money, or total money raised. I am amazed at how in politics, so many people can spin a loss as a win, Romney included.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 am
Who is next to drop out Huckabee or Giuliani?
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 am
ENHQ,
You’re welcome, and I meant it. And believe me, I don’t mind at all that you tried to answer for DaveG…it’s not like I actually expected him to answer it.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:05 am
#26 – Jason-
You are, of course, right, that raising money is instantaneous these days w/ the Internet. Rereading my post, I recognize that I clumsily expressed the point. What I SHOULD have said was:
“Due to the time constraints on the Senator, he has a very finite amount of time to raise money, because every minute he spends raising money is a minute he’s not spending campaigning in person in Florida. Accordingly, it would only make sense for him to raise money that can be used for the primaries.
General election money can’t be used, not only till after the end of the primaries – but after the RNC !!!! So he can’t use it till September. No point wasting the Senator’s time raising non-primary money, now.”
I hope that clarified the point.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 am
#32 – Huckabee
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 am
Episode FL: Return of the Rudi
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 am
Jared,
Would you say that Huckabee is dead in the water right now then?
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:14 am
#25-bjalder 26
Shouldn’t Huck – the man actually from Hope – be Episode IV?
#31 Jared – I’ll cheerfully concede that Mitt outraised McCain in one day, any way it’s sliced.
To go back to the original point, per the establishment-
Obviously, the establishment was splintered all over the place this cycle. Fred’s share of the establishment, as Matt C. so painstakingly catalogued in an earlier post, now has to find another candidate. McCain was supposed to be the establishment candidate from the beginning. Mitt and Rudy also took their own share. Huck’s really the only one of the five top-tier candidates that has no establishment support at all.
I expect that a lot of Fred’s support is going to go to Mitt – but how much, and in what intensity?
What happens if Rudy loses in Florida? Where does his support (establishment and voters) go, and in what percentages? Those are the questions. I have no answer to them. I see DaveG’s insight this way – it’s the mirror image of what GWB used to defeat McCain in 2000. Except that McCain is using the moderate/indies instead of the culturally conservative red-staters…
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:14 am
Likelihood of candidate receiving Huckabee endorsement after a post-super-tue dropout:
McCain: 80%
Giuliani: 15%
Romney: 5%
RON PAUL: 0%
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
#36 Metro- LOL… had Fred won in SC, it also could have been Return of the Jeri…
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
“It’s hard to see how Mitt’s the one w/ the momentum, given that he was the one w/ the fourth-place finish in SC and the win in Nevada. (At best, it’s tied in momentum.)â€
Sorry, I missed this part before. Yea, I would agree that you would expect McCain to have the momentum coming out of South Carolina, but I’m not sure that’s so. I was judging by SurveyUSA’s poll, where it showed McCain with more support among those who had already voted and less among, those who are still going to vote. That may not be a reliable way of estimating momentum though. The polls in Florida don’t seem very consistent, but I think with Fred dropping out, Romney will rise in the polls giving the appearance of a surge which will be followed with a more “real†surge. The question is (in my mind) whether or not Romney can overcome the advantage McCain has gained by leading among early voters.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:18 am
I would put it more like this:
McCain: 30%
Giuliani: 10%
Romney: -25%
RON PAUL: 0%
NO ENDORSEMENT: 60%
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:21 am
“Shouldn’t Huck – the man actually from Hope – be Episode IV?”
No, Huck is Episode I. “The Pastor Menace”
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 am
#43
LOL =)
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:25 am
bjalder 26 – per #41-42
The polls in Florida are going to gyrate wildly, particularly with Fred out of the race now, since we’ll have to wait three full days to see the full extent of where his votes go. Plus whatever Huck decides to do (does he stay and fight now that Fred’s gone?)
On the endorsement question-
I would agree that there’s no chance that Huck is going to endorse Mitt, until and unless he clinches the nomination. He certainly wants to be in the mix for VP for Rudy and McCain, and he would endorse either of them….
On that note, I’m going to bed… very good discussion, everyone… I’ll be back at this tomorrow…
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:26 am
#43- LOL….
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:29 am
I used to think Huck would make a great balancing member of a ticket to shore up evangelicals ala Rove in 2004 but I’m thinking he’s too much of a liability, even as veep. It’ll be interesting to see how the shortlists develop once things settle down.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:33 am
Bark
It’s good you finally came to your senses and logic. Welcome back to reality.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:41 am
On #45. No way Huck endorses Rudy. Remember the whole abortion issue? He’ll endorse McCain most likely. But I have a feeling Huck tries to collect some more delegates so that he can twist McCain’s arm and get himself on the ticket (in the scenario that nobody was a majority of delegates but that McCain delegates + Huck delegates is a majority).
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:42 am
Would McCain or Romney pick Rudy as their VP????
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:42 am
On #45. I’m amazed more polls haven’t asked Fred supporters who there second choice is. Especially the post-SC polls.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:02 am
On #50 – Probably not. McCain would want an all-around conservative to satisfy the base and Romney would DEFINITELY need a southerner since he polls pretty poorly down there.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:21 am
52. . . I’d imagine all three would want a southern conservative as VP. Fortunately there are plenty from which to choose. For this reason, however, I doubt we’ll see a combination of any of the top four candidates on the same ticket. There simply is no need to choose one of the other guys running, when each is an enemy in some way to some chunk of the party.
January 23rd, 2008 at 2:55 am
On #53. It’s amazing how on both sides of the aisle, we get all these people suggesting tickets of people who hate each other (i.e. Hillary-Obama, McCain-Romney) or people as VP picks who would NEVER take the job (Edwards since he’s done it before, McCain due to his age).
January 23rd, 2008 at 3:14 am
If Huck & Fred endorse anyone it’s J/Mac.
I’m sure Huck at least win.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:16 am
BOOOO!!!!! YEAAAHHH!!!!!!!!
Schwarzkopf to endorse McCain
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8059.html
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:17 am
My question all day yesterday was “who is going to be able to raise enough money to compete on Super Tuesday?” McCain actually has the advantage with name recognition so he does not need as much as Romney but just enough to fight back (because Romney is going to have to run some negative ads to bring McCain number’s down).
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:26 am
Sampo,
But that doesn’t mean anything. Romney’s backing by State Senator No-Name is way more important =)
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 am
58, not only THAT, but I’m sure someone can put a “but-this-is-good-news-for-romney” spin in post 57
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:33 am
This is interesting. If Schwarzkopf had his way in 1991, Saddam would not have been able to screw with us for 12 years and we may not have even gone into Iraq in 2003.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:37 am
57,
He won’t have to go negative. Romney can beat him on the economy alone.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:40 am
“He won’t have to go negative”
You better hope you are right. Romney doesn’t look too good when he attacks and he already stupidly made a name for himself by doing so – with nothing to show for it in IA and NH. More attacks will not make Romney look good.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:42 am
62
Agree.
Plus Rudy will be doing the attacking on the economy in the debate. It’s all on the line for Rudy.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:42 am
sam,
if by saying “romney can beat mccain on the economy” you mean “buy states by a trillion dollars in subsidies” you may be right. hey, he got close when he tried to buy iowa an DID buy Michigan.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:44 am
62
No, but econospeak is McCain’s only real weakness and where Romney can flourish.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:45 am
57,
True that McCain has to raise less. His free media is worth a lot. The whole TV ad thing has to make you wonder…is it really worth it?
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:46 am
I wonder if these guys should invest more in print ads with some detailing of policy positions. Too afraid to have it in writing?
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:56 am
Neither side is quite settled although McCain and Clinton have narrow edges and could easily be knocked off. Whichever repub wins FL will have a real boost because FL is a huge media market, rich in delegates, and demographically diverse. McCain would become the prohibitive favorite if he won and Romney would close the gap nationally with McCain with a win but would need to spend a lot of money to dethrone McCain. I just don’t see a scenario where Giuliani wins. He has already begun to fade.
Like McCain in NH Obama nationally is winning tons of media endorsements including SC’s largest daily. Red state dems are also endorsing him. Those are signs that Bill and Hill’s recent performances are reminding folks what they hated about the 90′s – the constant bickering and personal attacks.
I think that is the Obama strategy, by drawing excessive attention to Bill Clinton. When you have Ted Kennedy allowing his name to be used in a Newsweek story about Bill crossing the line, its serious. John Kerry has sent out a mailer warning people about “swiftboating” and it has to refer to the Clintons. The question is whether Hillary can run out the clock.
But here is the twist. Yes, there is palpable distrust and distaste between the camps, but that only means Clinton would have to offer Obama the Veep. And I have to say that even that will be historical. I guarantee there will be blacks and others literally (and understandably) crying. And I can tell you what their theme will be “Change and Experience.” They can dust off Clinton’s old signs.
That leads me to the general. Let’s say its McCain-Romney (Romney because McCain needs to balance his national security message with an economic one). If we are going into recession we will be in one by November and people will be voting their pocketbooks, not Iraq. McCain’s economic message is muddled at best and he needs Romney to both speak competently on the economy and offer a fresh (and younger) face.
If there is a g-d (and I believe there is) and g-d is good (which I believe as well), then there will be at least three VP debates.
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:39 am
68,
McCain won’t choose Romney. He is not practical in that way.
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
I will predict right now:
Florida:
1-Romney
2-Rudy (close second)
3-McCain (strong third)
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
“McCain Raises More Than $1 Million in New Yorkâ€
I notice that McCain turned to his base to raise campaign money. I expect the Independents and Democrats in New Hampshire, New Jersey and New York to step up and keep McCain in the race in the south.
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
#25 bjalder26,
Guys……I must admit…….
I am a much bigger Trek Fan, than Star Wars……
“Engage”…Baby…………..
You know there is another Trek movie scheduled for Christmas ’08!!!!!!
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#20 – ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher
Mitt has the momentum because (1) he finished Saturday with more delegates, (2) he has more campaign contributions while his competitors are running on fumes, (3) he has access to more personal money then his opponents, (4) his team is strong and getting stronger while his opponent’s teams are shrinking, (5) last Saturday Romney won NV with 51% on the same day that McCain won SC with 33%. (6) the Romney organization can compete in all 50 states while the McCain campaign is forced to battle one state at a time. (Romney did compete in SC with money and resources. Some battles are fought and loss but you learn with each battle.)
Yea, McCain scored last (Saturday evening) but the McCain team remains behind in the score, the game is far from over, and the McCain team seems to be on their heels and moving backwards. On the other hand I see Romney’s team hitting on all cylinders, the Florida ball is in play and Romney’s offense is moving forward.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
so how much of this million will go to paying of his loan that he took out with his donors’ private information?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
hey look, metro made a comment that was not about mormons being cultists. nice job metro.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Wait a minute… Please do not consider McCain. Yes, he’s a hero but will not make a good president. He is in it for power, He’s arrogant. He is dangerous. If you want to vote Republican. He’s not a republican, he’s a wolf in sheep clothing. He’s liberal, not conservative. He’s crossed over to Democrats a lot of times. He is not to be believed.
It’s a big mistake to consider McCain. He has proven nothing but straight talk betrayer. He has stolen ideas from other candidates, he just cannot do it on his own. That’s not right. He will not win in November, a lot of republicans (several thousands of them) I know will NOT vote for him if he became the nominee. They will mostly likely stay home or cross over and vote Democrat. Because either way, America will tank big time anyway.
Doomsday will surely come to pass- I’m sorry to say this. I just cannot sit on the sideline and not saying anything.
I just have to jump in and say what I feel.
Go for Mitt! He’s the most qualified of all candidates on BOTH Sides. He’s the all-spectrum conservative. He could possibly choose him to become the Secretary of Defense, that would inflate McCain’s ego… who knows. Mitt will be sure to choose the right people for the job, even those who he does not care that much but will get the job done. Mitt simply does not do favorism for anyone. He will get the job done and to close a deal, even if it means eating lima beans with someone else.
GO MITT!
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Ron Paul raised close to $2 million in a 24-hour period on Monday.
Any mention of that on R408? Of couuuurse not!