Johnathan Martin details some of the problems Huck’s team is having as Florida looms large, in a piece that falls right into the popular “this is now a three-man contest” meme.
- Huckabee confirmed today that some of his campaign aides are not getting paid because the campaign is short on cash
- Ed Rollins, senior Huckabee advisor, confirmed that other aides have already quit the campaign
- The Huckabee campaign is scaling back any efforts to take Florida, including running TV ads or campaigning there
- Rollins confirmed that Huckabee will “duck out of the state” between now and Tuesday to focus on southern states such as Georgia
- Camp Huckabee can’t afford charter flights for the media any longer, denying them a huge part of the free media exposure that has fueled their rise thus far
I’m not sure what Huckabee thinks he’s going to be able to do on 2/5 with no momentum coming out of Florida. Granted, with Thompson’s departure, the southern states are ripe for the picking, but there are over 1,000 delegates up for grabs on 2/5. Even if he manages to win a few of the states, he walks away with what, a hundred delegates, compared to McCain or Romney’s six to seven hundred?
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Hey, Jonathan forgot to mention there is an Huck army of 14,000 volunteers, ready to beat down your doors, eh, I mean, knock on your door. Well, I should tell Jonathan to contact this site’s Brett P. as he claims such.
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I CANNOT TYPE the one THING……..
I SO Desperately want to TYPE……
Please someone else type it for me……
….it ends in -A-BUST
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
SGS, the funny thing about that number, is that 14,000 is total online volunteers… I highly doubt many of them are going to make the trek to Florida to be the massive boots on the ground that is claimed. Of course, their morale will probably not exactly be high now that their candidate has said he is ducking the state after all…
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Huck’s campaign isn’t in dire straits, he’s just being fiscally conservative by showing us what he will do when he becomes President.
Besides, his campaign is built up on the premise that people who were just fired from $8/hr jobs are more qualified to run for President than people who fired them. That’s why he’s firing all his staff so that they work for free, or else putting them on minimum wage
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
And it is…..Finally….Coming……
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Hello, all-
For Team McCain, this is very bad news. I take some solace in that Huck’s name, like Fred’s, will still be on the ballot. Unlike Fred, Huck is still very much campaigning, and I absolutely anticipate that his hard-core supporters will of course vote for him in Florida.
Nonetheless, I do not like the idea of a three-way primary in Florida, with Rudy and McCain splitting the moderate votes, vs. Mitt, in a closed primary…
Thoughts?
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Nice Hug-A-BUST
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:55 pm
#7 was for Abe. And it IS nice for Romney; so Hug-A-Bustin Nice
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Though I’m not leaning Huckabee’s way, I would not underestimate the guy at all. He’s done pretty well considering that he, also, like Romney had a low name profile and he also had very limited resources. He’s young and has a long future ahead in politics if he really wants to work at it, and he will continue to appeal and be strong in many southern states. He could hang in there over the next two weeks, work those states, and come out with a good number of delegates, especially if some of those are Winner-Take-All.
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
ElectionNightHQ, I think you have a talent for reading the writing on the wall…
January 22nd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Keep underestimating Huckabee… Makes us happy. =)
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Joseph,
You toy with me…..
Come on…..
Some crazy-Mitt-head, type the one thing I promised I would never type again…..
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
ElectionNightHQ:
I know what you’re feeling. This was Mitt’s problem in South Carolina – he realized that the conservative vote was going to be split among Huckabee, FDT and Mitt. I think Mitt is in a very enviable position. I anticipate that the Romney supporters will be bending over backwards to welcome FDT supporters. If the poll that I saw is any indication, very few Fredheads will move to Mccain and Giuliani. If Mitt gets 50-75% of them in Florida, that’s a 4-6% jump right there. It does not even factor in any gain by Mitt of Huckabee supporters (and Romney is the 2nd choice among most evangelcials)
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Well, Huckabee is in trouble – we all knew he couldn’t win, didn’t we? I called him dead in the water several months ago, the only problem was that he gained traction in Iowa for some stupid reason and denied Mitt Romney what he deserved in that state. Iowa slapped Mitt in the face and voted for a fiscal liberal that doesn’t care about illegal immigration – I’m still wondering what everyone’s problem is here in Iowa. I hope they don’t mess up the general election as well, whoever the nominee is.
Giuliani’s plan has backfired and now McCain is the one to gain from it. I hope that Mitt can pull this thing off, because this primary is a total mess right now. The real question is where the Huckabee supporters will flock – I fear they will flock to McCain.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Abe #12,
Wasn’t it something like Hul-a-Bust? Sort of like a Hulapalooza knock-off?
Or was it Hizz-a-Bust, for Rudy’s eventual fizzle?
Tap tap tap…I just CANNOT remember…
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:03 pm
ARRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Abe’s complete Huck-a-bust is almost official.. If he is not paying his staff, then he is toast.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Huck’s response to such talk:
“Huckabee for President is being transformed into a leaner and more effective operation for the weeks ahead. We came very close in South Carolina, but very close isn’t good enough. We plan on winning and we are making a number of changes. The press has gleefully reported these changes as an sign of our “demise.” Not so. In fact, this exercise is actually breathing fresh air into our effort!
A campaign that doesn’t retool and try to be more effective with each set of new election results, eventually gives up. We are retooling because we want to win.
So buckle up and enjoy the ride.”
http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Blogs.Home
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Any anti-Hucksters want him to try for a Senate run? Dem Mark Pryor is up for re-election this year and is considered a lock unless huckabee runs against him.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Abe this ones for you
HUCK-A-BUST is HERE!!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
cwpete,
Thank you………VERY MUCH!!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:08 pm
cj,
YOU TOO!!!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Cool – Keep downplaying expectations guys so that when we come in 3rd or higher in FL it will seem as though we came back from the dead.
Thanks “Matt C ” for this. Keep them coming!
LOL – Politics are fun – GO HUCKABEE!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Sampo. . . I mentioned that in another post today. Not only would a Huck run for Senate become a successful GOP pickup, but it gives him time to redeem himself before many disaffected Republicans and run for higher office again in the future.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
huckabee will be a thorn in the flesh of the “professional conservatives” for a LONG time –like McCain. But unlike McCain he is much younger, so he’ll be ticking of the “professional conservatives” for even longer.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Ben – There is nothing wrong with retooling. Mitt did it between New Hampshire and Michigan and look where he is now. Unfortunately, Mike might need to hire a turnaround artist or strategist like Mitt to get the best bang for his buck. Mike doesn’t have the skills nor does Ed Rollins to mastermind the kind of comeback he would need without the abilty to get the crossover vote.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Matt, what do the online volunteers do?
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
As much as I cannot stand McCain or alot of his blind supporters i.e. LJ and Sampo, “ElectionNightHQ.com (McCain site) Publisher” is a very imformative respectful poster.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
I think Fred showed how effective it is to “retreat” to states that are weeks away, when all “retreat” means, is that you show up at a few rallies. Rudy’s still viable in Florida because he started advertising there before his complete collapse. Anywhere other then a small, attentive, populist state like Iowa, this is the only sort of “retreat” strategy which has a prayer of working unless one has months to campaign. Huckabee will head off to Georgia, he’ll hold some rallies, he’ll get some free local press, and then Romney, or Rudy, or McCain will throw up millions in ads, ramp up their superior organizations, and they’ll use the Florida momentum to make everyone forget about the Huckster. This is an exceedingly poor strategy.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Matthew – Without money, does Mike have any other strategy than going for Georgia? He’s going after his only strategy (whether flawed or not) in my opinion.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
So now it’s a three man race Mitt, Rudy and McCain. I think Mitt fares well going forward.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
agreed Lutie #28
It is nice to have civil discourse (interesting that another commenter here has that word as his nom de plum and has proven to be anything but).
I Brett Passmore was a nice change after that other guy, and ElecitonNight is certainly better than most other McCainiacs.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
John – I hope you are right, because I just got done explaining to my daughter what the President of the United States does, and I have no desire to try and explain to her why John McCain was chosen as the best candidate of all the people in the country.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
# 6
I said leading up to the SC primary I want McCain to win (b/c the loser of the Huck McCain battle in SC would essentially knock one out) to split the Moderate vote while Romney gets a chance to consolidate Conservatives. This is shaping up very nicely for Romeny. Though Rudy will likely be done Jan 30th and it will be down to McCain and Romeny and the “moderate” will fight the “Conservative” for the nomination. But I am happy for now romney is in the driver seat in FL
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Case,
Sure. He should stay on the late night talk show circuit, hit up Stewart, Colbert, all those funny man folks. And compete in Florida. Playing the genial funny man got him his ticket in the first place, despite lacking money. It seems as good an option as any. Certainly better then holing up in…Georgia?
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Huckabee is apparently thinking about what states he can win on Feb. 5 and how much it will cost, while Florida had their Republican delegates cut by 50% for moving their primary before Feb. 5. Also after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, momentum from winning a primary doesn’t seem to be all the media makes it out to be. The winner gets a day of headlines and then the media is focused on the next primary. With Obama and Clinton also in a very contentious race that seems to suck up more than 50% of the media’s attention.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Hey Matthew (#35) Yes, definitely! Huck was on Leno’s Tonight Show the night before Iowa Caucus, and he won it! Perhaps, he should do it again!
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Matthew,
You may be right. It was Mike’s pastor savy of connecting that got him Iowa, and even he must know that his record is so bad that he cannot win a conventional battle. Why hasn’t he set up band tour dates and had concerts?
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
At this point, I honestly think Huckabee is just trying to take votes away from Romney in the attempt to make mcCain the nominee.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:32 pm
#23 Shawn – That was quite transparent.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
I believe Mike is staying in this because 1) he believes in his heart that he can win. 2) He doesn’t want to let evangelicals down 3) the longer he can survive the more name recognition he gets for future political moves. 4) Chuck would lose his free advertising for the Total Gym so he has Mike in a headlock as we speak “you will not drop out!”
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Mike doesn’t drop out b/c he is arrogant plain and simple.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Lutie,
why should Huckabee stay in?
-Because he has a shot to sweep most of the southern states on Feb. 5th.
-Because Fred Thompson is out
-Because this race is so unpredictable
-Because he leads in Texas
-Because he leads Romney and Giuliani on average nationally (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national-primary.html)
-Because he has more delegates currently then John McCain
-Because his support is grassroot and not dependent on his campaign staff
-Because we could have a brokered convention
-Because he has the best base
-Because he kills the other candidates in the republican debates
…….more to come.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Except that since then some people who previously supported Huckabee are now finally realizing that they don’t want a joker as our president. Not too funny what is going on with our economy.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Ben,
What about
-Because he’s clueless on foreign policy
-Because he supports illegal immigration
-Because he’s fiscally liberal and will raise taxes
-Because he plays the bass guitar
-Because he’s weak on crime
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:53 pm
I was referring to #37
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Robin,
Not too many people want the guy that they work with running the strongest country in the world.
January 22nd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Exactly.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Huckabee gives a good speech and has 2 core principles: Pro life and second amendment.
He is a blank slate on everything else. He flip flops all over the place. One day he is wrapped in the confederate flag, a few days later he is in MLK’s church. He only wants to please the crowd, the substance doesn’t matter.
This is his management style. This is why the campaign has been so haphazard and his record in AR is so checkered.
He shouldn’t have gone half ass in MI while Fred got the drop on him in SC. He will screw up the decision of whether to skip FL or move on.
An I don’t see the timing of the Huck implosion as inopportune. I think its great timing.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
#43. . . I’ll take your points in order:
–There are only three southern states on 2/5, four if you count Tenn. Even if he swept the three states and took every single delegate, it’s not nearly enough to carry him forward much longer. Those wins would still be the sub-story on 2/6, since there’s 19 other states holding primaries.
–FDT is out but his support seems to be heading more towards Romney than Huck. At best for Huck, it splits, making gains of FDT supporters insignificant.
–Unpredictable: I’ll give ya that one.
–Texas isn’t until early March.
–National rankings are tricky because a candidate could rank 2nd or 3rd in every state and still show up at #1 nationally. That outcome produces few delegates even though it appears that the candidate is in the lead.
–McCain has fewer delegates but is on an upswing, while Huck is on a downturn. Florida should may this.
–Huck’s support is grassroots, but that doesn’t cover the cost of planes, media buys, offices, transportation, web sites, etc. Eventually it will catch up, sooner rather than later.
–There won’t be a brokered convention. FDT dropped out today, and there isn’t enough $$$ for all four remaining candidates to continue through June. Even assuming Huck stays in, it means others will drop out and a brokered convention won’t occur.
–Best base: Highly debatable. It could be the best ever in political history, but if it’s small and out of cash it won’t matter.
–Debates: Huck is not the best. Romney clearly won several, and Huck got pounded in the last one by FDT.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:06 pm
#42: Arrogance is saying you won’t drop out the Republican GOP nomination race due to lack of money – the position of the Romney campaign.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Alaska Jake
Well said and I agree 100%
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Huck had the best base but blew it. He hasn’t been able to expand or retain his base. As people find out that a pro-life baptist minister is, shock of all shocks, liberal on economics, security and crime, they are rejecting the Huckster.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:18 pm
#53 Yes and thank heavens for divine intervention.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Chris Baker,
What is arrogant about that? It costs a lot of money to run for President. If somebody isn’t prepared for that, they shouldn’t run. Huckabee was charging $25,000 a speech to denounce rich people and spread his populist/socialist rhetoric. Not long from now he will be forced out of the campaign for lack of support….after which he will charge at least $50,000 a speech to denounce the rich and spread his populist/socialist rhetoric. Huckabee is in it for Huckabee. Romney is in it for the good of America…..he knows he can do the job, and that others can’t. You can call THAT arrogant….but it is also the truth.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Huck still has a few options available. Don’t discount him yet.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm
#2 – HUCKABUST!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
WiseGuy,
I won’t discount Huck just yet, but he couldn’t even win SC a Southern/Evangelical state that voted over 60% for a southern evangelical in last Republican Primaries.
I suppose if Romney lost in Utah then I would also say he doesn’t have much of a chance either.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Huck has received a lot of votes. The remaining candidates would be very wise to reach out to those supporters. In particular, Romney has some bridge building to do. He should take it easy on Huck in the Boca debate, praising him in the areas where they overlap on soCon issues but gently drawing distinctions on economic policies if they come up. Romney needs to show also what Huck showed, that he understands and cares about the anxieties of the middle class and average guy. That, like in Michigan, he will be willing to fight for every job and turn things around.
In the debate, he should also stress economics, going into dense detailed thoughts on how to get us out of the subprime and market mess. This will serve as effective contrast to McCain. I think McCain will come after Mitt but Mitt needs to stay focused on the economy and beat him on the facts and his economic stimulus plan. He does not need to really target McCain as Rudy will do that. However, Mitt does need to show that he will stand up to the terrorists.
If it turns personal, thought less likely since Romney has stop antagonizing the others with his ads, he should rebut sternly and not “take it”.
No matter what Romney needs to figure out how to reach both Huck and Fred supporters.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Huck has received a lot of votes. The remaining candidates would be very wise to reach out to those supporters. In particular, Romney has some bridge building to do. He should take it easy on Huck in the Boca debate, praising him in the areas where they overlap on soCon issues but gently drawing distinctions on economic policies if they come up. Romney needs to show also what Huck showed, that he understands and cares about the anxieties of the middle class and average guy. That, like in Michigan, he will be willing to fight for every job and turn things around.
In the debate, he should also stress economics, going into dense detailed thoughts on how to get us out of the subprime and market mess. This will serve as effective contrast to McCain. I think McCain will come after Mitt but Mitt needs to stay focused on the economy and beat him on the facts and his economic stimulus plan. He does not need to really target McCain as Rudy will do that. However, Mitt does need to show that he will stand up to the terrorists.
If it turns personal, though less likely since Romney has stop antagonizing the others with his ads, he should rebut sternly and not “take it”.
No matter what Romney needs to figure out how to reach both Huck and Fred supporters.
January 22nd, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Chris Baker #51:
I see now, that’s Huckabee’s strategy. I can see the headlines now:
“If the Democrats don’t drop out of the Presidential race even though they have more electoral and popular votes than Huckabee, then; well they should.”
or here’s another tagline for the war on terror:
“If the Islamic Jihadist don’t surrender and kneal down before President Huckabee, then; well they should.”
Well, I guess Huckabee has just got the Narcissistic/Alan Keyes/John Edwards vote. “I know nobody is giving me money like Romney or free media (anymore) like McCain, but vote for me; well because you should.”
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Huck is heding on vp. watch him take some swipes at romney come thursday at the debate.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
haha alaska jake you rule. complete p0wnage on ben.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
#55 The only reason I can think of anyone would spend up to $50 million of their personal fortune on their own political campaign is personal vanity. Very rich people own enormous luxury yachts, ocean racing yachts and all that – most Americans never see them. However Romney apparently wants to spend up to $50 million of his fortune making himself into some kind of political hero.
It’s legal and it’s his money, however I’m never going to vote for anyone like that. Romney seemed to be trying to outdo the drug companies with the number of TV advertisements for the New Hampshire primary. I want someone who begs, panders, and cajoles for campaign contributions the old-fashioned way because I believe at heart it’s a good process.