From The Prowler:
Less than a month after a huge upset victory, and promises that fundraising would be ramped up, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is asking his senior staff to keep working for him without pay, while lower level campaign staff are seeing their salaries cut dramatically or eliminated altogether.
“The goal is to get a leaner, meaner campaign structure moving into Super Tuesday,” says a senior campaign adviser.
But many of those being asked to take the cut are refusing, and walking away, leaving the campaign with holes to fill.
“The money simply hasn’t come in at the rate that we expected,” says the aide. “Florida is a $7 million commitment that we can’t meet, and if we did, that leaves us exposed for Super Tuesday, where we have a lot of states and a lot media buys. We had to make tough decisions.”
[Update] From Matt Lewis:
Huckabee seems to be realizing he can’t win Florida — especially with Rudy, McCain, and Romney all campaigning hard there. He has been traveling to other states, including Georgia, and seems to be planning a Feb. 5 strategy, instead of a Florida strategy …
He also seems to be out of money. He’s cutting salaries, and squeezing his budget …
I think he’s fading …
If Huck does avoid FL, this could really effect the outcome, as could Fred basically dropping out. Who knows in which direction, but I am guessing John wishes Huck and Fred would stay in a little a longer.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:13 am
Maybe if Romney practiced what he preached, he could give Huckabee a few million dollars to go out and campaign.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:14 am
Sampo,
Your goal for today: Don’t sound drunk.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:16 am
Jason, Maybe you’re supporting a different Mitt Romney. The Mitt Romney who is running for president wanted to tax campaign donations at 10% and give it to his or her opponents.
Look it up. It’s all there.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
Sampo,
I am supporting Mitt, but aren’t you supporting the guy who lies about his amnesty past and seeks to limit free speech?
Sampo’s Goal for the day: Don’t sound drunk
I know you can do it!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
Hmm…the Huckster being out of money isn’t much of a shocker. Him dropping away from Florida is going to be interesting. I have no clue where his support base will go. Also, if Thompson drops out…he’s purportedly going to endorse McCain, which could give him a boost.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 am
Nice red herring. Haven’t Mittbots realized the more Mitt talks about amnesty the better his chances of losing are?
Anywhoo, good work. If I were you, I’d probably change the subject too.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
A thought on campaign strategy: One thing I wondered over the past few weeks was why the candidates didn’t skip Florida, conceding the state to Rudy. With such an expensive state in which to campaign (very high-cost media buys), it would allow them to divert $$ to Super Tuesday states while destroying Rudy’s firewall strategy (by de-emphisizing the state’s importance). ALso, considering it’s one of the states which lost delegates due to RNC punishment, and those delegates are winner-take-all anyway, skipping the state would also allow them to avoid spending too much money with the end result being not winning any delegates. I personally don’t think anyone should skip any state, but it seems to be the new way of campaigning this year.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
Sampo,
And If I were you I would avoid the fact the McCain directly lies about past support of immigration.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
No the Jmac hasn’t. Mitt said so himself who says McCain’s plan isn’t amnesty (although admittedly it does depend on the day you catch him on).
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
#5. . . My guess on Huck is that whether or not he drops out, he’ll hang on to as many delegates as possible in order to be the socon voice at the convention. He’s got to stay in at least through 2/5 to capture the delegates given out by the states of the deep south, then use them as a sort of bargaining chip at the convention.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:31 am
Dow off 251 in the first minute of trading
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
Sampo,
John hims self said “I never supported Amnesty” But 2 years ago said “We need Amnesty It has to be part of an immigration plan” I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that probably you never heard this rather than assume you aren’t willing to give a straight answer.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
Dow off 342 in the first two minutes of trading
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
FCOH, dont look at the markets. the way you can really tell they are good is when limbaugh gets on the radio and straightens you out.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 am
Dow off 431 in the first three minutes of trading
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:34 am
sampo – that’s OK – I’m just waiting for McCain to win the election.
“The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should,†McCain said. “I’ve got Greenspan’s book.“
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
holy cow dude. markets down 431.. maybe limbaugh will go on air early so he can straighten us all out.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
Down 400 now
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
I think Sampo is lost. This isn’t te daily Kos champ. Go back into your room with your half naked pics of Michael Moore on your wall and take a break from R408. Oh, and put down the bong Cheech.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:36 am
IS THE HUCKA-A-BUST…..
Wait for THE McCRUMBLE…JANUARY 29
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:39 am
McCain supporters read #18 and then #16
Sound like a man who is ready to be pres?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:41 am
Huck is not pulling out of FL.
Check out http://press.hucksarmy.com
We are mobilizing 14000 volunteers to get the vote out for Mike in FL.
Trust me, we are in this to win this.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
Huck doesn’t need money. He just needs 5 loaves and 2 fishes.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
Brett,
Sounds great. Stay in! Tell Fred to do the same
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
Sampo, this calls for a governmental bailout. I say we fund a “no candidate left behind” program. The country needs it. And the people deserve it. We’ve been preaching since the ’60′s that anyone can grow up to be president. Heck, Bill Clinton never grew up (still acting like a rutting teenager)and he got to be president. Mike is entitled.
No Candidate Left Behind! Let’s hold all of the “A” candidates back, take their money and organizations, and give it to Mike. Mike can go to early morning day care and after school assistance. We can get him a campaign fundraising tutor. We’ll even delay the Fl primary until Mike is back up to speed.
I tell you, it smells like death, and there is nothing that will kill a campaign faster than the smell of death. Look, the vultures are circling!
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Hey Jason,
Imagine losing to a broke guy in South Carolina?
Your guy Romney must stink worse than I thought he did!
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 am
Peter,
That comment makes me think you are an intellectual lightweight.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
27 Jason,
The fact that he is against your guy proves that he is not.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
Fundraising is likely proving difficult for everyone…even Romney.
He does not have infinite resources.
Huck’s fundraising thermometer on his web site hasn’t moved much
in a couple of days. But I suspect everyone’s fundraising pace is
slow save McCain.
Florida will be huge.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
Brett,
Your guy has no chance and only can get Evangelicals to vote for him
Ok this got old real fast.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
Hehe. Yes it did.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
Well Huck clearly hates Romney. If he and his 12-17 percentage points can deny Romney a win in FL then he effectively kills his chances of being the nominee. John McCain might appreciate that enough to give him the veep slot.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
Getting Huckabee out of the race is essential to moving the process forward….face it, he wasn’t going to win anyway, and if he did it would be a national disaster, so to speed the day when we can get down to a choice between REAL candidates, he needs to go. By the grace of God, Florida will make this happen. I hope this means that he won’t have the funds to finance his mendacious push polls. Prevaricating seems to be his strong suit….economic nescience his weak suit.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 am
32, I worry that Huckabee killed his veep chances when he talked about amending the constitution to adhere to the Bible. That was a sad day.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
Adam,
Sorry, Romney can loose Florida and still win. Bottom line is McCain or anyone else can’e compete in every Feb 5th state, McCain will only have money for so many states, and Romney can go through and pick off all the others. CA is not winner take all. This won’t even be over by Feb 5th, it’s going on till March or April, McCain and Romney show down.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
Sampo,
That’s right – I forgot about that. I never really wanted Huck to be veep anyway but if that’s what is necessary to knock off Romney then I can live with it. What can a veep really do to affect social policy anyway?
By the way, regardless of what any of us want – Huck isn’t going to leave before 2/5. Why would he? He still has his natural base in the South. It’s not as if he hasn’t been broke before. He’ll stay in the game at least until then.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
Aside from all this irrelevant tittering, time will prove all of this. If huck is out of money, he will go dark in FL (Sampo’s intelligent defense notwithstanding). His evengelical support will erode and he will pull the 10% that aren’t interested in anything more than his religious affiliation. Fred will also be dark in FL, which is a shame, and he will pull 7%. Both of them will be out of the storyline, except to explain why they are dark. Huck will be off preaching in some ozark backwater (is that redundant?) and no news crew is going to follow him there. His heretofore cutting attacks against Romney will be identified as nothing more than the bitter whining of a loser. Fred and huck will have ceded the remaining 33% to Romney. Rudy and McCaine will bloody each other to split the moderate 45%. And then, somebody else dies. Read the book or go see the movie. They both end the same way.
Oh, and how do you think the Dow’s dump this morning makes millions of FL retiree’s feel, who don’t have 10 years to make it back up. They are looking for an Economic Commander In Chief. Hail to the chief.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
My guess is that Huck drops out on Feb 6th or 7th. Super Tuesday will provide him with a few states – Alabama, Georgia, of course Arkansas, maybe even West Virginia and Oklahoma – where he can pick up quite a few more delegates. I don’t think we’ll see a brokered convention, but delegates still wield a lot of influence on party platforms, speeches, etc. It also helps should he choose to run again in the future.
My own suggestion would be for Huck to quit the race and run for Arkansas’ Senate seat. He could capture it for the GOP, giving him a lot more pull in the party, and helping him even more in any future run for higher office.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
Adam,
If Huckabee had a natural base in the South, he would have won in South Carolina, where he got beat by a guy who has no base outside of the left wing media. Has Huckabee won in the South? If he was going to win in the South, he wouldn’t be dropping out of Florida. I predict that the only state he wins from here on out is Arkansas.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
Jason,
No one can compete in every Feb 5 state. There’s only a week between 1/29 and 2/5. It’s not going to matter how much money Romney has because if he loses in FL he is not going to have enough time to convince voters in the South and the Northeast. Look at the winner take-all states in the Northeast. Romney is not competitive. The only way that changes is with a lot of momentum coming out of FL – even then it’s a longshot. And I think you agree that it’s an uphill battle for the South. I’m really trying to be my best to be objective. It won’t be over by 2/5 but we’ll have a really good handle of what’s going on. If McCain cleans up in the South and NE and Romney only takes a few more mountain states – it’s going to be hard to overcome that. And if McCain wins all those Northeastern states the mantra of “He can only win when Independents vote” isn’t going to work anymore.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:20 am
Dave,
Point taken. But I suspect states like MO and AR and MS might be more receptive to his message. Also he has more of a base than Romney. I still don’t see why he would duck out now. Maybe he really thinks McCain will give him the veep slot. I’m not convinced that it’s impossible.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
rick,
I tend to think you are right, but I am guessing Hucks remainig 15% or whatever splits. I don’t think they are really concerned about Economy or defense, and it will be up to the campaigns to see how they pick them up. I think Fred will in fact back McCain, but hos supports are pretty educated about the candidates and won’t just jump to McCain because he did. I think the polls show they more than likely will jump to Mitt, by about 75%.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
Adam,
The fact that no one can compete in every feb 5th state is axactly my point. Who does what were is gravy.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
I think most people are agreed that if HUck and Thompson are out of Florida that boosts Mitt more than anyone. No matter who they endorse, those three tend to draw away each other’s support. If what we’re seeing holds true this COULD be a turnaround for Mitt. Rasmussen is already showing Mitt with a 5 point lead in FLorida, and that’s probably the most accurate of the polls from what I’ve read, especially with who they’re atually polling. Mitt’s lead could continue to go up. Best case scenario: Mitt gets first, Giuliani second. Worst case: Mitt gets third behind Rudy or Mac.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Ohio,
Well one point in romney’s favor: That if Huck stays in all the John people people say that he is a spoiler for Mitt, if he leaves his people will all go to John. A little bit of inconsistency. He’s either a spoiler hogging potential Mitt votes or not.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Adam, don’t you see the whole point of this article? Huckabee has NO base. NOne. Having a base means raising money. Even after he lost NH, Mitt raised 7 million. THAT’S having a base. And because the Feb 5 states are so many and so spread, Mitt has some edge because he’s got such a large campaign BASE.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:26 am
Ohio,
good point, and frankly Mitt is the only one who has held a solid base of support since JUNE. He will be competitive till the very end, how ever it turns out.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Ohio,
Huck doesn’t need to win if all he is doing is spoiling Mitt’s chances in FL for John McCain as I suspect he might be. He has enough of a base to justify staying in until at least 2/5. After all, he has a win and a close second, and that’s more than you can say for Rudy.
I’m not arguing that he has enough of a base to win. Huck isn’t going to win. I’m just not sure that Huck cares about that anymore. How old is he? 52? I’m not prone to conspiracy theories here but let’s just say McCain and Huck have a gentleman’s agreement that Huck will get to be veep. McCain’s pretty old. If Huck is veep then he’s set for 2012.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Jason, Romney has polled in single digits MANY times since June. TWICE in 08. Tough break pal.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:32 am
Unfortunately money is a big factor – sometimes the biggest – in who wins a party’s nomination. Media buys cost money. Planes cost money. Staff costs money. State and local offices cost money. You’re message can be the best and you’re entire staff can be volunteer-based but you still need millions to continue the race. It’s only going to get worse with each election. Then, after factoring in the effects of McCain-Feingold. . .well, let’s not go there.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
Many have a shot.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 am
#48. . . I thought there may have been a gentlemen’s agreement between Huck and McCain too, until Chuck Norris went off on McCain’s age the other day. That couldn’t have made McCain too keen on a Huck VP.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Um Sampo, that is irrelevant to what I just said.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Jason,
Maybe you’ll finally realize that money doesn’t matter if nobody will vote for your candidate?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 am
Peter,
to bad Romney has the most votes total! HAHA!
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
Had Romney not funded his campaign with 10′s of millions of dollars he’d be far more irrelevant than Thompson right now. FAR more.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 am
“solid base of support”? I don’t consider single digits solid by any means.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 am
Hey Jason,
But he couldn’t beat a broke candidate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe another 100 million dollar check would get old Romney another percentage point?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
total Votes:
Romney 530,162
McCain 510,132
Huck 339,824
Thomp 103,553
Giul 59,312
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
Jason,
Agreed. There was a big difference between the evangelical vote that got involved early in IA and the ones that got jacked up by their pastors the Sunday before the caucuses. The early ones broke evenly for Mitt and Huck. The late ones went overwhelmingly for huck. Evangelical men went overwhelmingly for Romney and others, ev women for huck. The more you looked, the less you liked. The same pattern has played out in each successive state.
The story since IA has been a diminshing enthusiasm for turning out evangelicals coupled with a lower capture rate for huck. They rushed to him with the fire of a schoolgirl crush, born of the promise of electability. “We came, we saw, we left unimpressed.” Pastors are no longer pounding their fists on the pulpit to get out the vote, and huck doesn’t have the money to engage them, even under the radar. (Hasn’t anyone wondered where all his money is going if not into advertising? All of that church mail costs money. And the yield is much lower now.)
Why haven’t the big guns of the evangelical socons endorsed him? For exactly this situation. They don’t want to throw away 30 years of work in the party.
So, Jason, maybe he loses half of his current poll numbers, those that don’t want to throw their vote away. And the downstream effect may be similar. Either way, it looks good to winnow the field to the real players.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Peter, “another” means there was a first one.
And should I remind you, your broke candidate is about all wrapped up.
You realize how lame you look right now, right?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Jason, You sound like a bitter Al Gore staffer from 2000.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Total votes are less relevant than they are in a general election. They didn’t help Gore in 2000.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 am
Sampo,
Just pointing something out. Romney leads:
THe raw vote total
Delegate Count
Amongst Republicans
Amongst Conservatives
Most states won
McCain:
Darling of the MSM
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
Oh did I mention Romney beat Huckabee out amongst Evangelicals in MI, NV, and NH?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
Numbers are never in Johns of Hucks’ favor. Why? because they don’t know how to use them.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
Jason,
Enjoy it while it lasts.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
64,
Jason, a huge percentage of the Republican electorate WILL NOT vote fro Romney. Period. If this means that Huckabee is playing the 1976 Reagan, and we elect Hillary or Obama into the Jimmy Carter role, so be it. Huckabee will continue to be the Reagan role, and in 2012, we will have a 1980 election cycle all over again. Romney will not win. its that simple.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
How bout these numbers, Says what he believes:
McCain – 53%
Romney – 13%
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
69, where is Huck in the poll?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
On Fred.
He has a thirty year freindship with John McCaine
On Fred’s supporters.
They have a 30 year love affair with Ronald Reagan, the anti-McCaine.
The transition will be a net Romney win, same will be true of huck’s supporters.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
BRett,
T bad a huge ercentage of them will, eh?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
Sampo, pete,
Romney HAD to spend more money to get his name out. He wasn’t a politician who abandoned politics to jump start his acting career. He never got a free break from the media like Huckabee did. His earned and bought every percentage point he’s gotten because he had to. I don’t see anything wrong with it. He hasn’t bought votes, people heard his message and have voted for him more than anyone else. If this trend continues, he’ll win the nomination.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
#71, Fred’s will goto Huck First, Romney Second. If Huck Drops, several will not vote for the lessor of 2 evils. AKA 1976 all over again.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
Sampo,
When McCain cleans up in the Northeast, all the RomSquawk about delegates and leading among GOP and the like will go away.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 am
72, eh? you Canadian?
A huge percentage *might*, yes. But not enough to defeat a democrat.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
Brett,
what the heck are you talking about? Polls have shown that the Republican candidate whom Repubs would not vote for is Huck! Not Romney. It was 85%!!! And most of those people will still vote for the R. candidate come november, especially if Hillary wins her party’s nom. Where are you getting your information from?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
How bout these numbers:
Tagg’s trust fund spent per vote:
Mitt Romney $100
McCain $0
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
S-silly
A-asinine
M-moronic
P-perfidious
O-odious
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
Adam,
yesterday LJ said sweep, now you say cleanup. I guess an new nick name for McCain can be “JanitorJohn”
Brett,
Fred’s people go to Huck??? Keep the dream alive is all I can say.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Sure Jason. We need a janitor to clean up after candidates like Romney with their dirty gutter attack ads.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
You guys are talking out of the side of your necks.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
#80,
Fred’s supporters are vehemently pro-life and pro-gun, and anti-gay equality folks. they will not support a two faced candidate on these issues. These social issues trump your “inevitablity” candidate.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
Brett,
This is the NH exit poll. Huckabee got 12, but had half as many votes as Romney.
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/new-hampshire-republican-exit-polls/
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Brett, You have to admit that the weakest candidates in this race are in order:
Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee,
Then Romney and McCain.
How in the world are Huckabee’s people going to go to Thompson if Thompson is on the verge of dropping out?
And would you really rather have McCain (who Dobson has openly opposed) win over Romney (who has defended family, marriage, and Life in every action he has undertaken as a public servant?)
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Brett,
The problem is Fred supporters are also anti-corruption, anti-nanny statism, and anti-Bible-should-dictate-the-constitution crowd. I am guessing they’ll go for the later. And all th polls and a quick read of Free Republic will confirm this.
Actually, I have no idea why I am evening arguing this with you.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Brett, that would be a fine self-confirming speculation except that none of the Romney/Huck head to head data from ANY contest bears it out.
Conservatives – Romney wins,
Taxes – Romney wins.
Economy – Romney wins.
Immigration – Romney wins.
Foreign Policy – Romney wins.
You’re getting the point by now, right?
There is an unstoppable coallescence around their second choice as weaker candidates prove unviable. (Man, I liked typing this last sentence.) Thompson is loved, but unviable. Huck is believed, but unviable. Most of their supporters will end up with Mitt, not pro-choice Rudy or McCaine (D).
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:54 am
Adam,
JanitorJohn is great for 08!
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:58 am
“Brett, You have to admit that the weakest candidates in this race are in order:
Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee,
My Order,
Thompson, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, McCain (for now)
What I said was that Thompson supporters will come to Huckabee, and then will not vote for the lessor of 2 evils.
And would you really rather have McCain (who Dobson has openly opposed) win over Romney (who has defended family, marriage, and Life in every action he has undertaken as a public servant?)
I cant vote for McCain, and I dont trust Romney. Down in Texas, that is the predominate feeling. Texas is a huge media state, and more expensive than Florida – we will be pivotal in the cycle, and Huck is Huge still down here. Perry has made a case for Rudy, but Gov Perry’s ratings are in the tank, and his endorsement has cratered Rudy’s chances here.
Romney’s negatives are HUGE. almost as high as Hillary’s – Now with Bloomberg and Nader stepping in, this race is still as confusing as it was 2 months ago, even with Hunter, Fred and others out of the way.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:04 am
#89. . . Nader is back?
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
Jason, I don’t think sampo can be more than 15 years old. The beginning post was far out of the bounds of reason – Mitt should practice what he preaches and give Huckabee money??? It’s so without logic, it is truly sad.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:06 am
Why the blazes does anyone respond to Sampo’s posts anymore? Just curious… It’s all just white noise.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:08 am
Oh Huck will be fine – he has all the 527′s working for him.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:09 am
89:
I don’t know Brett, I live in San Antonio and I see more Ron Paul support than Huckabee. If anything, latinos/hispanics support Huckabee for his pro-amnesty policies, but I think that Romney has stronger footing to appeal to Latinos and Hispanics (who, you know, constitute a sizeable proportion of the electorate).
If Huck can’t win in SC, why would you think he even had a chance against McCain or Romney in Texas? I’m just trying to help you look at the race logically.
Here are my reasons: 1) Dallas Republicans are BIG on business–not likely to support Huckabee, 2) Latinos are more likely to support McCain, but might go towards Romney because his team (Son, Alex Castellanos) might be able to make the case, 3) the Bushes like Romney and they still have some clout in Houston.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
wow, huck essentially bowing out of florida is huge news for romney. very good news indeed. my guess is that fred is going to stick it out even longer. for one reason his supporters want him to keep going and for the other reason, mccain has probably asked him to just like mccain asked him to help him lead on mccain feingold.
don’t listen this time thompson. you saw what following mccain did to you last time. .
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
Bloomberg is not going anywhere if Romney wins the Nomination.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am
#96. . . The thing with Bloomberg is that state deadlines are approaching quick. Texas is the first state which has ballot filing deadlines – I think in just four weeks or so (Brett can correct me). Bloomberg assumed, as did most people, that the both parties would have had clear frontrunners by now, allowing him to jump in the race as a savior to the moderate voice among the voters. The crowded field has forced him to wait a lot longer to enter, but the state deadlines are forcing him to enter the race before he knows who his opponants will be.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:21 am
BEWARE……..
The RETURN…………..
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:23 am
68;
Brent…why not? What is an area where you are worried about trusting him that you think he might go against your Republican principles. He governed in a most conservative way. Actions do speak louder than words and it seems that he was very conservative with the Governor’s pen in his hand.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:28 am
91…agree. It’s funny watching you guys argue with Sampo…
He’s having a great time posting here from study hall!
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
BEWARE……..
The RETURN of the ROMNEY!!
Run for your (political) lives…..Rudy & John…
Mike and Fred already have…..
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
If Huck’s true believers still truly believed, he wouldn’t be broke. He’s already descended into the fringe status he so richly deserves. Say what you will about McCain, and I’ve said it all, he performed a national service in getting Huckabee out of the race. A lot of his demented followers haven’t caught on yet, but Huckabee no doubt realizes the seriousness of his plight. Florida, for all intents and purposes, will functionally get this down to a 2-man race, which Mitt will win.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
Florida is a 3-way fight….Mitt v. John v. Rudy…
With 2 fighting for many of the same people…..
Leaving Romney alone on the right!!
I AM SO GRATEFUL FLORIDA is a CLOSED PRIMARY!!!
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
Brett,
I’m going to unapologetically burst your bubble. There is no way Thompson supporters will go to Huckabee’s camp. Not after all the dirty tricks he pulled with the push polling and asinine comments he’s made about Fred and the other candidates. He’s a tax raising, blame America first liberal in republican clothing who’s weak of foreign policy. We don’t need him in the office in any way, shape, or form. He’d be a Jimmy Carter redux. Period. I remember Jimmy Carter’s presidency quite well and have no desire to return to that double digit unemployment, stagnation, misery indexing, gas rationing, price freezing, economic disaster that many people seem to have forgotten was his legacy.
By the way # 95 Fred has since apologized over the McCain Feingold disaster.
Most of the people on Fred’s site have either decided to sit out if Fred withdraws, and that’s a mighty big IF, or go with Romney, certainly not McCain. Definately not Ron Paul. Rudy might gain a few votes, but I emphasize the word few. Huck would stand a better chance of selling flame throwers in hades before he’d ever sell himself to the Thompson supporters.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
104
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
Fred supporters will not go to Huck, and Huck supporters will not go to Fred.
These are two completely different camps. Both candidates are becoming less
and less viable, and so if you’re going to switch at all, there is no reason
to jump ship from one candidate that is not viable to another one that is also
not viable. If these supporters do any switching at all, it will be to one of
the front runner candidates that remain, and it will be to the one that most
closely resembles the candidate they just left from.
So, the question of where Fred’s supporters will go I think is fairly easy. They will
primarily go to Romney. Both are considered true all-around conservatives. This will
happen regardless of whether Fred endorses McCain or anyone else, or even if he doesn’t
officially drop out. The viability factor will draw supporters away to Romney.
The question of where Huck’s supporters will go is a little harder, but I personally
think they will fairly evenly split between Romney and McCain for no real net effect.
This group is primarily a so-con group, and some will see Romney as strong/stable in
this area, and some will not, and they will split to Romney and McCain. Almost none
of them will go to Giuliani. If I had to give an edge here though, I would probably
say it goes to Romney because I believe that while these people are profoundly social
conservatives, they also tend to be conservative in other areas as well. They have
just relegated their other conservative views to the back seat for the prospect of a
powerful social conservative president. Once this option is gone, they will take a
more balanced approach and tend to drift toward Romney since he is the all-around
conservative as compared to McCain. This may be slightly offset by those who will
never vote for the “Mormon” candidate, or by those who are duped into believing all
the nonsense that the MSM has been trying to smear Romney with.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I heard on Fox News last night where they said Huckabee’s hatred of Romney was all about religion – nothing less. They noted that he had publicly and privately spoken out against the LDS religion long before Romney ever did the compare/contrast ads. The also said that Huckabee had been a keynote speaker at anti-Mormon rallies and conventions in the past. They said that Huckabee felt that Romney’s religion should preclude him from the oval office.
This was just one analyst, but come on, I think we all know there is a lot of truth behind this.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Hello, all-
Lotta good stuff on this thread:
My two cents-
I have really enjoyed the cyber dueling between Jason and Brett on this thread. Both make passionate arguments for their candidate (for those of you who are new, Jason is ardently pro-Mitt, and Brett is ardently pro-Huck, as their posts reflect).
#7 Alaska Jake – he speculated on why the others didn’t skip Florida and concede it to Rudy:
I think that Alaska Jake’s suggestion is a worthwhile strategy, although I don’t agree w/ it. Here’s why I think the other candidates never seriously considered it:
They all assumed – with great justification – that Rudy was making his last (and as it turns out, first) stand in Florida. Rudy was running first in the national polls, by a comfortable margin, for most of the year. They could not afford to concede a big state, with a lot of delegates, voting alone (remember, Florida is the only story on the 29th), go to him. (Jake accurately notes that the delegate totals have been halved due to the RNC penalty, but even that half is significant, and the Florida GOP is confident that the penalty won’t be enforced. Florida is – as we all know from 2000 – too critical a state for the Republican candidate to offend in any way, shape or form.)
Especially when Florida was the last state to vote prior to Super Tuesday. Whomever would win Florida would pick up a full head of steam heading into the day that all sides think will determine the nomination.
Thoughts?
Thoughts-
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Huck is broke? To overcome this tragedy, Huck will flash a distress signal up in the sky. An observant Chuck Norris will heed the call, and will immediately go on QVC, HSN and all available late-night slots to sell more exercise equipment, donating the proceeds to Huck’s campaign.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:14 pm
108. . . Regarding the Florida situation. . . I agree with basically everything you’ve said w/r/t not skipping FL. But we’ve seen every candidate except Romney skip states for strategic reasons while ignoring the significance of even making an appearance in such states. Romney campaigned heavily in NV, for example, while McCain and Huck ignored it. This will come back to haunt them because, like FL, NV is a bellweather state, split evenly in recent elections between the GOP and DEMs, with the fastest growing population in the country. I mention this as an example of how candidates are opting for what they think works immediately rather than long term strategy (again, with the exception of Romney, who has campaigned even in states he was losing, like SC). All of this leads me to believe that the candidates are less concerned with how their current strategies will affect their campaigns down the road, and more concerned with racking up easy wins immediately. Skipping FL would have allowed that.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
JB #59: Not bad. Not bad at all. Mitt has spent probably 30 to 35 million out of his own checking account to win 530,000-and-some votes: so 55 to 65 or so bucks of Mitt’s own money spent per vote.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
The rasmussen Florida poll showed that Huckabee got 25% of the evangelical vote, while Mitt got 20%. If Huck drops down or off the radar in Florida, Mitt stands to gain the most. Fred becoming invisible there helps Romney as well. If I were the Romney team, I would be targeting the 12% that Fred has and making calls to them like crazy. That’s low-hanging fruit. That could get him over 30%.
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Bonham: My Headlines Are Dishonest — Just Like My Man Mitt!
January 22nd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#107 Greg,
Agreed.
January 22nd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Why the blazes does anyone respond to Sampo’s posts anymore? Just curious… It’s all just white noise.
No kidding. Is there some hidden merit I don’t see? Why do people keep taking him seriously?
January 22nd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Mitt Romney has prepared himself financially, tactically, personally, in every way for this race. Sampo drunk-man can begrudge him the consequences of his excellent preparation, but I say let the laws of nature run their course. If Huck is broke, there’s a reason. If he needs cash, let him go through Mitt’s front door to ask for it. After all his sly rudeness toward Mitt, I betcha Mitt would still give him an audience.
I justify the low quality of this post by pointing out it is still better than most others on this line.
January 22nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
[...] http://race42008.com/2008/01/22/huckabee-im-broke/ Jason Bonham 1-22-2008 [...]
January 22nd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
#115 Henry, are you sure sampo is a “him”. I would bet my bottom dollar that the age is no more than 15, the immaturity is glaring, but I’m not so sure on the gender?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:34 am
It would be nice for the remaining candidates to take Mitt down. He just cannot be trusted. I hope Huckabee takes Thompson’s supporters just so they don’t go to Romney. He is a manipulative person and I think we have had enough of that for one lifetime.
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
“He is a manipulative person and I think we have had enough of that for one lifetime.”
Wow, that IS a perfect description of Huckabee.