Richelieu at Campaign Standard makes a point that I have been thinking for quite a while:
Looking back at the last 17 days of the primary season, it occurs to your Cardinal that despite all the talk to the contrary, every major candidate has exactly the same strategy, which is to say no real strategy at all. Each has tried to win every big primary, and failing that, scrambled like mad in a live or die semi-panic to win the next one.
A year ago, every single campaign started out trying to win the Iowa caucus. What happened was that some did well and others failed. The media then graded each on a curve, based on group-think expectations. After that, each candidate tried to win New Hampshire, some did, and others did so poorly they stopped trying and labeled that defeat a “strategy.” Each candidate also started out with high hopes for Michigan, some were able compete in the end, and others were not – a choice made not out of strategy but of weakness.
Some will argue that Rudy Giuliani has indeed had a strategy of picking only the primaries in which he sees a strategic opportunity. While it is true that Rudy has stopped trying to compete in some early states, I think it was – like the case of Mike Huckabee in Michigan – a choice forced on the campaign late in the game by failure and pending defeat, not a move dictated by an actual strategy. Rudy originally planned to compete in both Michigan – where he recruited leadership (such as top Macomb county boss Rep. Candace Miller), proclaimed support, and did early campaigning. Rudy planned to compete in NH, where he did more campaign events over time than John McCain and spent millions of dollars on television. Rudy spent significant early money trying to get support in the Iowa caucus, at one point matching Mitt Romney in field staff. Fred Thompson started out with a plan to use the Internet and a late start to sweep the field, campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire, and was eventually forced to retreat to South Carolina.
Mitt Romney has tried to win every primary, escaping SC for Nevada and the Tonight Show when anything beyond second place seemed out of reach. But Romney tried hard to win South Carolina; his departure was a press-management tactic, not a strategy. Romney did decide to focus on small early contests like Nevada and Wyoming, but the other candidates gave him those states not because they wanted to but because they didn’t have the money to try to compete in each.
One of thing that continually amazes me is how easily the media buys the spin and regurgitates it, and how happily the public will lap up the regurgitation. I mean c’mon folks, no one bows out of any primary or caucus because they think a win isn’t worth it. I guess having followed this race so closely I am more convinced that no matter how smart someone is, or how much they try to look at something dispassionately, everyone falls victim to human nature.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:19 am
It is better to step out of a race early & concentrate in a state where you have a natural connection like with Rudy & Florida. It would have been wasteful for Rudy to compete as follows:
1. Iowa went to Huck because of the Evangelicals;
2. New Hamp to McCain because of the liberal independent voters;
3. Michigan to Romney because of his family connections & because he informed Michigan voters that he would bring jobs back;
4. South Carolina to McCain due to liberal independent voters again;
5. FL will go to Rudy because he has deep connections there and because he is campaigning heavily there.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I agree. So the ones who can afford to compete are whom McCain,Rudy, Mitt and Huckabee?
January 20th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Good find, Jason- my thoughts-
Richelieu is a talented writer (and I do find that screen name to be cool, as someone with an avid interest in history). He makes many excellent points. However, here’s where I agree and disagree w/ his analysis-
Strategy is partially determined by events the campaign can’t control. One factor is what rival campaigns do; another is external, real-world events; another is luck. I agree with him that in the beginning, everyone TRIED to test the waters in Iowa. Those that could afford it and had a chance of doing well stayed; those that didn’t, left. He accurately points out that in many cases where a campaign opts to try, realizes it can’t win or do well, and leave as a result – they proclaim that it was their plan all along, and that it’s strategy. Examples of this in this cycle were Rudy in both NH and Mich, and Mitt in SC (which he cites).
However, even though it’s spin, it’s still the correct strategic move. They aren’t mutually exclusive. If you can’t win or do well somewhere, it’s pointless to waste time and money there. Even Mitt, who has plenty of money, still has a finite amount of time. It was the correct strategic move for him to leave SC, because he wasn’t going to do well. (Matt Lewis from Townhall said last night on XM Potus that a Mitt operative had told him that the decision to pull down the ads in SC last week had a demoralizing effect on the ground operation, and he noted that it’s rare for campaigns to be that candid about something.)
January 20th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Rudy never once had the field operation in Iowa that Romney had. That’s patently false. Romney’s Iowa organization was the best the state has ever seen.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Romney’s whole strategy was to win Iowa and New Hamp, quite different from Rudy’s & 40% of Republican primary voters have already voted down here in FL so what does that say about McCain and Romney when they were away while Rudy has been campaigning night and day down here…..
January 20th, 2008 at 11:51 am
I agree that Rudy has a leg up in Florida, However what makes you think that everyone in Florida will vote for Rudy? Obviously some voters like the other guys or it wouldn’t be so close in the polls. If Florida is like other places it takes a while for voters to think about voting when they have a month it is not a top priority. Maybe they voted after the results of IA,NH,MI,NV or SC and noticed that Rudy has been in the bottom.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Yogi,
You miss the point.Rudy’s goal was to win Iowa unti June when he decided it was no onger feasabe. Rudy competed in NH until Dec Till it was no longer feasabe, actuay the same with Nevada.
I am not critizing any one campaign here, notice it contains a critique of Romney, but yo an’t honestly say Rudy skipped Iowa because he thought a win there just wasn’t important for him. If he thought he coud have won, he would have competed.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Jason,
Agreed. Something that’s hardly ever mentioned these days, but Rudy had the endorsement of a majority of Nevada state senators and reps. He had every intention of competing in that state and was admirably positioned to do so. Until he fled.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:54 am
ENHQ,
Last month, Slate’s Mickey Kaus outed Richelieu as McCain-friendly GOP consultant Mike Murphy.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:56 am
aron,
That’s correct, I forgot about that.
January 20th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I’m reposting a reponse I made to Act Blog on a previous thread that is equally relevant here…
It’s not that Romney can’t win in Florida. It’s the reality that, after finishing fourth in South Carolina, a state in which Mitt invested more in advertising than all other candidates combined, coupled with the momentum McCain is likely to bring to the Sunshine State, Romney, acting out of self-preservation, would be best-served by not competing in a single state in which his chances of success are 10-15%. The surest way for Mitt to increase the likelihood of living to fight another day is to make the shrewd political calculation to do whatever is necessary to deny McCain of the ability to secure the nomination on January 29; including bolstering Giuliani solely in Florida. A Romney who doesn’t, all for naught, pump millions of his own money into the expensive Florida ad markets would enter Super Tuesday still viable, and, perhaps more importantly, with an IOU from Rudy, that could come in the form of the vice presidency — a position previously assumed to be unattainable for the near-universally despised candidate.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Aron,
Nice try. Romney will compete in Florida because it is winner take all and he is as well positioned to win the state as anybody else is. A win not only yields a lot of delegates, but effectively knocks rivals out of the race. How would Rudy go on after a loss in Florida? He’s no longer high enough in the national polls to compete successfully in Super Tuesday states without a win there. What would happen to his fundraising? How would Huckabee go on after losing both states in the South, where he needs to dominate? So Mitt will compete hard in Florida, and guys like me will make hundreds, maybe thousands of phone calls for him, and we’ll see what happens.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I am not sure I follow how your logic turns into specific action Aron. How does Romney boost Giuliani and take McCain down a notch while not competing in FL? You are at once demanding Romney both compete and not compete. I must add as well that it would be crazy to concede FL to anyone. McCain, Romney and Giuliani all have huge liabilities in the diverse electorate of FL and no one knows right now which of those liabilities will be fatal to which candidate. I am not up on FL politics but I do know that the housing crisis is big there. The candidate who can develop a successful message on housing could win the state on that one issue.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Dave, to argue that Romney is as well-positioned to win Florida as McCain is simply absurd. Don’t worry about Rudy. Think selfishly in terms of your own candidate’s interests. How would Romney go on to win the nomination after a loss in Florida? What would happen to his fundraising after losing in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida?
January 20th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Think selfishly in terms of your own candidate’s interests.
THat’s exactly what you are doing here Aron. Do you really think by posting this comment you wil change Romneys strategy?
January 20th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
McCain won’t win Florida because he hasn’t spent 8 years campaigning there and won’t have Independents to bail him out. Huckabee won’t win Florida because he can only get Evangelical voters and not enough of them either. Thompson won’t win Florida because he’s visiting his mother. It’s Romney vs. Rudy.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
#9 – Aron-
Thanks – I didn’t know that. Although I should note that Murphy also worked for Mitt Romney, and has publicly stated that he likes and has worked for both. I believe I heard him quoted, something to the effect that he was “staying neutral” in this battle.
Link to the Slate article: http://www.slate.com/id/2178626/
January 20th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Aron
The best thing for Romney to do is to eliminate dead candidates like Giuliani. Who seriously thinks that Romney would take the VP slot even if he were offered it? It’s pretty clear, however, that Romney’s not going to get any love from any of the candidates (including Thompson). A second place finish in Florida (with Giuliani out of the race) positions Romney much better to win on Super Tuesday than if he were to effectively drop out. Like Jason, I think your dishonesty is showing a little in advising Romney to help Giuliani win Florida. I guess that instead of telling Romney that he is DOA, you Giuliani people are resorting to begging the winning candidates to drop out and let the supposed ‘real winner’ take his rightful place.
Well, I’ve said it before and here it goes again. If Giuliani (or McCain) can’t win the nomination with Romney in the Race then they shouldn’t be running)
If Romney doesn’t compete in Florida, he might as well quit now. If his competing in Florida is going to give the nomination to McCain, then the REpublicans are going to lose in November anyway, and Romney will (perhaps) make a good run of it in 2012 or 2016.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Jason,
This scenario would be mutually beneficial, no doubt. At some point, though, you have to confront reality, and the truth is, as your man Mitt admitted last night: “If you want to get the nomination, if you want to win the presidency, you gotta get Florida.”
Romney is unlikely to be the one to stop McCain’s momentum after finishing fourth in South Carolina. By conceding Florida to Rudy, Romney would remain in strong contention for the nomination, with McCain entering Super Tuesday badly wounded, not the presumptive nominee.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Romney should focus more on California than Florida and leave Rudy to battle McCain for the state. That would help both camps as Rudy would get a one-on-one with McCain and Romney could prepared for Super-Tuesday
January 20th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
More self-delusion from Romneybots.
McCain will do well in Florida and probably win because he’s ahead in the polls there and will have momentum from South Carolina. Rudy will do well in Florida because of the New Yawk factor and because he has been a fixture there for the entire month of January. Huckabee will do well in Florida because it’s still a southern state and still has southern evangelicals.
You know who won’t do well in Florida?
Romney.
Florida has lots of Hispanics. Romney’s pandering to the nativist right on that issue will kill him. Romney can’t make up for those vote in North Florida because just like in South Carolina, southerners won’t vote for Mormons. Romney will come in fourth.
On Super Tuesday, McCain or Rudy (Florida winner) will take the moderate and liberal states where all the delegates are and Huckster will get a respectable share of southern delegates.
It’s Utah for Romney!
But wait! Romney can just wait till after super tuesday and go up against Mac or Rudy. Nope. Then all the southern states votes and southerners won’t vote for Mormons. We saw that in South Carolina, where your boy Romney came in behind a guy who has slept through the entire election, Fred Thompson. Romney couldn’t even beat Fred Thompson WITH MOMENTUM FROM MICHIGAN!!!
Anyone who says Romney can win is delusional.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Joseph D. Walch asks: “Who seriously thinks that Romney would take the VP slot even if he were offered it?”
Romney is only 60. He would be in prime position to ascend to the presidency after 8 years as VP. It would be outright foolish for him to refuse such an opportunity.
January 20th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
If you havent seen the redstateupdate. The Michigan part is funny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xou-FpDTHSE
January 20th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Rudy on “This Week”
January 20th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
#23. LOL.
January 20th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Aron,
You must have missed the last Florida poll that showed a 4-way tie in Florida? Mitt was one of the 4….so who’s better positioned? The one thing that can’t be done, is conceding the state to McCain. I wanted McCain to win South Carolina so that Rudy and Juan McAmnesty would split the same vote in Florida, and allow Mitt, as the only conservative in the race to slide through with another Gold Medal. But now that that has transpired, McCain has to be stopped. Mitt’s just the guy for the job.
January 20th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Dave, that’s a hard storyline to sell to the voters after Mitt lost NH and SC to McCain.
Mitt has zero natural base in FL. Rudy has ex-NY’ers, Jews, Cubans, and the military (splitting the last w/ McCain).
January 20th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Aron,
10 days is a lifetime in politics. Mccain isn’t likely to get too big of a bump. After all he did get a bump going out of NH into michigan, having a 6-8 point lead i believe right after the NH primary but romney was able to erase it and turn it into a 9 point win.
Florida right now is an effective 4 way tie, anything can happen and grand proclamations that so and so candidate is done and has no chance is a load of crap.
January 20th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
21, momentum is worthless. All 4 candidates who have won have also been smoked. There’s no pattern. Don’t count on momentum if you’re a McCain guy especially going into a state where his registered independent base is shut out. If you’re a Huckabee guy, don’t count on Florida Evangelicals carrying him. This isn’t Iowa. If you’re Rudy guy, don’t count on Fred’s supporters switching to him.
January 20th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Romney may not have a natural base demographically in FL, but what he loses in that area I think he more than makes up for in his domination of the economic issues.
The economy is creeping not-so-slowly towards a recession, and for many people, that is a real concern. Polls have shown that the economy and immigration are the top two issues, and I believe that holds true for FL as well. You cannot deny, no matter how much you dislike Romney, that he completely dominates the other candidates on economic issues.
January 20th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Fl:
1. Rudy will get around 35-40% (former Northeasterners; snowbirds who vote in FL; people who relocated to FL from Chicago/Ill; Cuban Republicans; Jewish Republicans; military share)
2. McCain will get around 25-30% (military share; no independents unless they switched before 12/31/07 which probably very few did; and a few others)
3. Huckabee will get around 15%(Evangelicals)
4. Romney (remainder which probably comes to less than 10%)
January 20th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Rudy has a significant advantage in FL.
January 20th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Any advantage Romney has on the economy can be easily neutralized by pointing out his record in MA and by emphasizing his recent flip-flop on a stimulus package. No matter how you spin it Romney was a poor governor on econ issues as evidenced by poor job growth, higher taxes and fees, and failure to lure new business. I am rather surprised he has avoided criticism for his stimulus proposal after he said one was not necessary. His $250 billion proposal exceeds those proposed not only by the president but by the democrats. Its obscene and frankly I do not see how he can claim to be such an expert on the economy when he did not see the need for stimulus until after the democrats he claims don’t understand the economy.
January 20th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Forbes on Rudy’s tax plan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UofPYL6HhPQ
January 20th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Anyway, McCain must be kidding when he has twice objected to making Bush’s tax cuts permanent. Instead, what we really need are more tax cuts, espcially the corporate tax cuts that Rudy has repeatedly espoused. Rudy has been down here from coast to coast within FL informing FL “Republican” (no independent voters are voting in FL unlike S. Carolina and New Hamp) that the high corporate tax rate has been driving companies outside the U.S. & or keeping companies from entering and or reentering the U.S.!
I would like to know where people expect to get jobs from if you keep on banging up businesses?? The Dems want everyone to be dependent on government and to drive out all business!
January 20th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
No way Romney gets less than 10 in Florida.
I’d say Rudy Mac 30%, Romney 25%, Huck 15%.
If Romney wants to make sure Rudy wins he should compete and take aim squarely at J/Mac. He needs to be all immigration and the economy all the time.
January 20th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Axel – Today on Fox with Chris Wallace Mitt explained that when he became governor there were only about 12 businesses looking to come into Mass. By the time he left there was over 200. He said that when he took office there was no pipeline at all. He said that he worked with the legislature to get the ball rolling again. I do not have the link to the article, but pretty impressive turnaround to me.
January 20th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Axel – Also on Chris Wallace he explains how his stimulus plan is geared for both short term and long term. His plan involves pushing job growth and allowing businesses to invest back into the economy. The people of low income get the tax break that helps them. I see his plan being much more well rounded and doesn’t just give people cash for a quick influx of cash that is only a band-aid.
January 20th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
#37/38: That’s the stuff I find most impressive about Mitt. I don’t think anyone else running in any political party can even touch him on that position, to tell the truth.
January 20th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
“Dave, to argue that Romney is as well-positioned to win Florida as McCain is simply absurd. Don’t worry about Rudy. Think selfishly in terms of your own candidate’s interests. How would Romney go on to win the nomination after a loss in Florida? What would happen to his fundraising after losing in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida?”
Ditto question for all the candidates. They dont have a path to nomination without Florida.
Florida is now a must-win state for McCain, Rudy and Romney.
January 20th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
“Any advantage Romney has on the economy can be easily neutralized by pointing out his record in MA”
His record is pretty good and is a fiscal conservative one.
January 20th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
BEWARE……
The RETURN of the ROMNEY!!
But, but we thought he was dead….
How can this be…..
Run for your (political) lives!!!
Rated: AWESOME!!!